Stinger226 Posted May 20, 2018 Report Share Posted May 20, 2018 Here is an article that projects what the stats are going to be for the year https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2018/5/18/17368652/chicago-bears-mitchell-trubisky-leonard-floyd-allen-robinson-espn-fantasy-breakdown-nfl-2018 I think Cohen, Shaheen, and Miller's stats are on the low side. I think Tribusky's TD total is higher than projected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted May 20, 2018 Report Share Posted May 20, 2018 Here is what KC did last year compared to those projections: Passing Smith 341-505, 4042, 26-5 ----------------------------------------------- Trubisky 346-567, 3851, 23-13 * Based on those numbers, we will throw more than KC, but Trubisky will average less than Smith? I doubt that, especially with Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, and Cohen on the roster. So I think Trubisky will be closer to 4200 yards and 30 TDs. Rushing Hunt - 272-1327, 8 Smith - 60-355, 1 ---------------------------------- Howard - 240-1025, 7 Cohen - 76-313, 2 *We are projected to run less than KC? Probably not, especially with Howard and Cohen. Also, I doubt Howard's YPC drops to 4.3, his career average is 4.6 and with the passing options, he will have more holes to run in. I figure he will be closer to 1200 yards with a few more carries. Cohen seems about right to me. Receiving Kelce - 83-1083, 8 Hill - 75-1183, 7 Hunt - 53-455, 3 Wilson - 42-554, 3 West - 27-150, 2 ------------------------- Robinson - 73-1046, 7 Miller - 51-657, 3 Gabriel - 38-490, 2 Burton - 51-558, 4 Cohen - 60-470, 2 Howard - 25-197, 1 Shaheen - 23-243, 2 * There is only one ball and only so many plays, so I can see the problem. I just think they shorted the Bears about 300 yards passing/receiving and 7 TDs. Adjusted: Robinson - 75-1100, 8 Miller - 52-700, 5 Gabriel - 40-550, 3 Burton - 52-625, 5 Cohen - 60-475, 3 Shaheen - 25-315, 3 Either way, we have a good problem. KC had essentially Kelce, Hill, Hunt, and Wilson. We have Robinson, Miller, Gabriel, Burton, Cohen, Howard, and Shaheen. With White as a potential bonus. What they totally omitted was Cunningham catching anything, which would be shocking as he had 20 receptions last year, which will probably take away from Cohen and Howards catches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 On 5/20/2018 at 6:19 AM, adam said: Here is what KC did last year compared to those projections: Passing Smith 341-505, 4042, 26-5 ----------------------------------------------- Trubisky 346-567, 3851, 23-13 * Based on those numbers, we will throw more than KC, but Trubisky will average less than Smith? I doubt that, especially with Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, and Cohen on the roster. So I think Trubisky will be closer to 4200 yards and 30 TDs. Rushing Hunt - 272-1327, 8 Smith - 60-355, 1 ---------------------------------- Howard - 240-1025, 7 Cohen - 76-313, 2 *We are projected to run less than KC? Probably not, especially with Howard and Cohen. Also, I doubt Howard's YPC drops to 4.3, his career average is 4.6 and with the passing options, he will have more holes to run in. I figure he will be closer to 1200 yards with a few more carries. Cohen seems about right to me. Receiving Kelce - 83-1083, 8 Hill - 75-1183, 7 Hunt - 53-455, 3 Wilson - 42-554, 3 West - 27-150, 2 ------------------------- Robinson - 73-1046, 7 Miller - 51-657, 3 Gabriel - 38-490, 2 Burton - 51-558, 4 Cohen - 60-470, 2 Howard - 25-197, 1 Shaheen - 23-243, 2 * There is only one ball and only so many plays, so I can see the problem. I just think they shorted the Bears about 300 yards passing/receiving and 7 TDs. Adjusted: Robinson - 75-1100, 8 Miller - 52-700, 5 Gabriel - 40-550, 3 Burton - 52-625, 5 Cohen - 60-475, 3 Shaheen - 25-315, 3 Either way, we have a good problem. KC had essentially Kelce, Hill, Hunt, and Wilson. We have Robinson, Miller, Gabriel, Burton, Cohen, Howard, and Shaheen. With White as a potential bonus. What they totally omitted was Cunningham catching anything, which would be shocking as he had 20 receptions last year, which will probably take away from Cohen and Howards catches. We have so many options it's hard to calculate who gets what and we don't yet know who Trubisky will be comfortable with early in the season. In the first few games it'll probably be Burton just because of his familiarity with the offense. Others like Shaheen will take more time to acclimate to a dramatically different scheme. That alone will play a huge factor in the totals at the end of the season. The relatively balanced distribution you propose is likely what we'll see play out throughout the second half of the season. If you are saying Shaheen only has 3 TDs this year I'll definitely take the over on that one. With his huge frame and ability to box out defenders, catch fades, or even back shoulder throws combined with Trubisky's quick release and accuracy I see 5-7 TDs. Some of that comes at the expense of Burton where the tight coverage lanes negate some of his speed advantage, plus LBs will find it to their advantage to push him off his route early and disrupt the timing of the play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 14 hours ago, AZ54 said: We have so many options it's hard to calculate who gets what and we don't yet know who Trubisky will be comfortable with early in the season. In the first few games it'll probably be Burton just because of his familiarity with the offense. Others like Shaheen will take more time to acclimate to a dramatically different scheme. That alone will play a huge factor in the totals at the end of the season. The relatively balanced distribution you propose is likely what we'll see play out throughout the second half of the season. If you are saying Shaheen only has 3 TDs this year I'll definitely take the over on that one. With his huge frame and ability to box out defenders, catch fades, or even back shoulder throws combined with Trubisky's quick release and accuracy I see 5-7 TDs. Some of that comes at the expense of Burton where the tight coverage lanes negate some of his speed advantage, plus LBs will find it to their advantage to push him off his route early and disrupt the timing of the play. Shaheen is a huge question mark for me. I thought the team trusted him enough to release Sims, but they didn't do that. Which seems like a hit on Shaheen (not grasping playbook, etc). Sims is an expensive blocking TE. I just figured he would be down on the totem pole as the 6th or 7th passing option, but I am sure hoping he hits the over and scores 5-6. That would be awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted May 22, 2018 Report Share Posted May 22, 2018 Looking back at Gabriel's stats, I think the 40-550 may be a little high. He had 33-378 with Atlanta as their #3 WR, so I can't see him exceeding that competing against Robinson, Miller, Burton, and especially Cohen, who are very similar players. I think 35-400 may be more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 25, 2019 Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 5/20/2018 at 8:19 AM, adam said: Passing Trubisky 346-567, 3851, 23-13 (Actual 289-434, 3223, 24-12) - If you project him for 16 games, he would end up with 330-496, 3683, 27-14, which is extremely close to projections (better comp%, TD, INT, lower yards, completions, and attempts. Rushing Howard - 240-1025, 7 (Actual 250-935, 9), within 100 yards an 2 more TDs Cohen - 76-313, 2 (Actual 99-444, 3), more across the board Receiving Robinson - 75-1100, 8 (Actual 55-754, 4), missed projections, but had a huge playoff game which seems to be more in line with his potential. Miller - 52-700, 5 (Actual 33-423, 7), missed some time, and played thru injury, less receptions and yards, but more TDs than expected. Gabriel - 40-550, 3 (Actual 67-688, 2), more receptions and yards, but less TDs. So if you combine his and Miller's stats and projections, the production is really close. 92 projected receptions to 100 actual, 1250 yards projected, 1111 actual, and 8 TDs projected and 9 TDs actual. Burton - 52-625, 5 (Actual 54-569, 6), a crazy accurate projection, 2 receptions, 56 yards, and 1 TD off. Cohen - 60-475, 3 (Actual 71-725, 5) , way off on yardage, Cohen really made huge strides as a receiver. Shaheen - 25-315, 3 (Actual 5-48, 1), I feel like Shaheen is nearing bust status. Hopefully he can find a niche in the offense, but even after he returned from injury, he didn't seem to be involved very much. 1 I cut in the actual stats in with the projections and comments. Burton's was spot on with some others that were really close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 I think that not knowing how the offense would supply touches for everyone, a hard thing to break down. This year everybody should have an uptick in stats. I think Gabriel goes down and Miller and Roberson go up. The new RB will be lead back (Hunt?) And Howard has better Yards average but less carries. Say 150-623-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.