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Roster Turn Over - Next 3 Years


adam
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-- CAUTION LONG THREAD --

I took a look at the Bears cap situation for the next few years. I keep seeing things about the Bears being in cap hell next year, and that really is not the case. The Bears don't have to pay Trubisky big bucks until his 6th year in the league, so it looks like we can keep virtually the same roster for the next 3 years without too much trouble or turnover. The media paints it like we are in dire straits after this season. With a few key guys resigned each year, we should only expect to lose 2-3 starters per year in this next 3-year window. Similar to how we lost Howard and Amos this year and replaced with Montgomery and HHCD. 

With that said, I looked at some of the higher priced and aging players to see where the Bears will most likely look to shed salary through cuts, trades, or free agency.

Next offseason will be one of the most interesting in the next few. Mack's contract doubles and Whitehair will be a pending FA. The Bears have over $16M right now and I assume they will carry some over to next year while locking up at least Whitehair, and maybe even Jackson or Cohen before they hit their last contract year. Looking to next offseason, the top 5 salary savings could come from the following:

2020 Offseason (next yr)
1. Amukamara ($10M cap hit or $1M dead money for 2020) - saves $9M
2. Long ($9.6M cap hit or $1.5M dead money for 2020) - saves $8.1M
3. Trevathan (UFA) - saves $7.6M
4. Daniel (UFA) - saves $6M
5. Gabriel (6.5M cap hit or 2M dead money for 2020) - saves $4M

That would be $35M in savings, but the team would need to replace a starting RG, CB, LB, and WR, and a backup QB. Amukamara, Trevathan, and Daniel seem to be the most likely to depart (almost $23M). Long will come down to performance and health. I threw Gabriel in there as the team seems to have signed a few guys to do what he did last year (Hall/Patterson) and drafted Ridley. $35M plus the carryover cap would easily be enough to absorb Mack's increase, extend Whitehair, and even Jackson or Cohen with room to spare. If the Bears value HHCD over any of the guys listed, there is potential to sign him as well, though that would probably push Cohen's contract extension to the next year.  I have seen some concern about the cap crunch for next offseason as it looks like we are $27M over the cap for next year. That is complete BS, that counts all players signed (not top-51), doesn't take into account the annual cap increase (projected for another $10M), and assumes all current contracts will stay the same. If you take the top 51 salaries, add $10M to the cap, and carry over $6M from the cap this year, we would be under the cap with no other mods. So you can trade Whitehair's deal for Amukamara, and would then gave the remaining savings for other transactions. 

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In two years, Trubisky is on his 5th-year option, and Jackson and Cohen, if not already extended, would be due some hefty extensions. The good news is some huge contracts would be coming off the books or would be reworked to lower cap hits. Robinson and Floyd alone would save $28M and another $15M could come from Burton, Patterson, and Skrine. Again, not that we need to shed that much salary and then have to replace another starting WR, LB, TE, and CB, but we can if need be. After a repeat SB win, some of these guys may be looking for huge paydays.

2021 Offseason 
1. Robinson (UFA) - saves $15M
2. Floyd (UFA) - saves $13.2M
3. Burton ($8.85M cap hit or $1.75M dead money for 2021) - saves $7.1M
4. Patterson (UFA) - saves $5.75M
5. Skrine $6.1M cap hit or $3.3M dead money for 2021) - saves $2.8M

Skrine's contract is really odd, the lowest dead money is $3.3M, then it goes to no guarantee or contract after year 3. Of all the current contracts, this one is one of the most prohibitive for a non-elite player on the roster.

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I know it is crazy to think out this far (3 offseasons from now), but even with Trubisky due his $30M+ contract, only having Daniels, Miller, Nichols, and maybe Wims to resign (as potential starters) doesn't seem too bad. With annual cap increases, absorbing $20M+ of new money for Mitch in 3 years, doesn't seem like a huge problem, especially after a 3-peat. The cap increases of at least $10M per year would alone absorb Mitch's pay increase while allowing the Bears to resign the other guys to second contracts. 

2022 Offseason 
1. Leno (UFA) - saves $9.9M
2. Massie ($9.4M cap hit or $1.3M dead money for 2022) - saves $8.1M

The Bears can restructure, extend, or let both of their bookends go. I assume they won't let both go in the same offseason, and Leno could easily be extended by then if he plays well. Massie is the most likely cap casualty at this point.

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The Bears are really in a good place cap-wise, they have the flexibility to retain pretty much every starter and key sub minus 2-3 a year for the foreseeable future while extending key contributors to long term deals. 


 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Great piece! Pace has done a pretty good job.  If he wants to be great, he has to make the next jump on fitting the right pieces into place to replace departing veterans while 3 peating over the Patriots each time. 

exactly.

I think Daniel, Long and Trevathan are the most likely to get traded or cut in that order.

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I find it funny that the media paints us into cap hell next offseason when in reality, after a few pieces moved, we are easily under the cap. As long as we pay the right players (Jackson) and let the others walk (Amos, Howard), while drafting at least average, we should be in a good place for a long time.

 

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15 hours ago, adam said:

I find it funny that the media paints us into cap hell next offseason when in reality, after a few pieces moved, we are easily under the cap. As long as we pay the right players (Jackson) and let the others walk (Amos, Howard), while drafting at least average, we should be in a good place for a long time.

 

There will be moves to make that might not have the fans support (i.e. Jordan Howard) but we have an entire draft class to help ease the pain and that's with two 2nd Rd picks.  Those two picks also lower the rookie pool cap hit. 

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In getting rid of players, I think many replacements are already on the team. For example Joel Iggy has not made any kind of splash but is being groomed to take over for Trevathan next year. Until he plays it looks like a bad idea, but it will be played out according to a plan. I think we have Princes replacement already on the team, Toliver or maybe Joesph. I think we are set to change WRs as our starters big contracts start to affect our cap.

You always do a good job with your posts.

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28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

In getting rid of players, I think many replacements are already on the team. For example Joel Iggy has not made any kind of splash but is being groomed to take over for Trevathan next year. Until he plays it looks like a bad idea, but it will be played out according to a plan. I think we have Princes replacement already on the team, Toliver or maybe Joesph. I think we are set to change WRs as our starters big contracts start to affect our cap.

You always do a good job with your posts.

Stinger,

That is a good point, and another thread. Who are the potential replacements already on the roster? I agree that guys like Iggy, Toliver, and even guys like Fitts and Irving are already getting groomed for a future starting job. If the Bears can pull that off, where there are guys waiting in the wings, we will be in even better position than originally anticipated.

Half the time my posts are just something I looked up out of my own curiosity and thought it would be worthwhile to share.

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