Bears 2020 Draft Outlook

[adam]

Right now the Bears are tied for the 12th worst team in the league with CLE and JAX (oh joy). Since we have the toughest SOS, we get the lesser pick (14th) in the first (to OAK) and then the 13th pick in the 2nd, and the 12th pick in the 3rd (to OAK).

If the season ended today, we would have the 45th pick in the 2nd round and somewhere around the 52nd pick from the Raiders. Without 3rd and 5th Round picks, the Bears almost have to use one of those to trade down. I would rather use the second one and do something like this:

1. Select #45
2. Trade #52 (OAK) for #60 + late 4th + late 5th
3. Select #60 (from trade)
4. Trade late 4th and Eagles 6th to move up in the 4th
5. Select mid-4th (from trade)
6. Select 4th Round Comp (Amos)
7. Select 5th Round
8. Select 5th Round (from trade)
9. Select 6th Round 
10. Select 7th Round

This scenario would give us 6 picks in rounds 2-5, where Pace has better success.

 

[Stinger226]

The trade back is definitely the best  case scenario . Since I think the first two picks are going to be a QB and TE, neither will probably start next year so this draft will be anticlimactic . So we get some OL prospects, CB and ILB. It will be tough to find a starter on the tail end of the draft. The new starters are going to come from the depth we have on a team now. 

OL Maybe they start Bars at LT and Coward keeps his spot at RG. Nothing else to see here.

CB Prince will be gone, so I say Toliever is next up.

I doubt if Joel Iggy takes over for Trevathan a sure cap hit. So that leaves resigning Kwiat and let him play there which would be a ok move. 

TE-Here is hoping Jasper shows something, or we're hosed. Maybe Burton can get well this year( a clear problem) because his contract calls for a big cap hit if gone.

[Mongo3451]

Pace is tied to Trubisky.  I really doubt they will use one of their high picks on a QB.  OL is deep this year in the second and third rounds.  I'll be disappointed if two of our first three picks are not OL.  If any QB is to succeed, they have to fix that OL.

 

 

 

[Bill]

There is no more proof of how important line play on both sides of the ball is than this season.  No offensive line no offense.  No Def. pressure from the down linemen no game changing turnovers on defense.  In my ignorant opinion the three most important positions.  QB, OL, DL.  You should have a constant flow of picks every year.  And if you hit on them more than once you can use that for future trades.  Like getting gas in a car.  You don't wait till your broken down on the side of the road before you refill the tank.  Seems like we are broken down on the side of the road.

[adam]

Based on starting holes or lack of production, we have to address the following positions next year:

3x FA Holes: CB (Prince), S (HHCD), ILB (Trevathan)
3x Performance Holes: TE (Sharton), T (Masso), G (Danward)

That would be our 6 picks in the first 5 rounds. Then you can use a 6th on Kicker. 

Unless someone falls, I don't see the Bears drafting a QB.

 

I heard an interesting thing on the Hoge and Jahns Podcast. What about signing Clayton Thorson off the Dallas PS? We would have to bring him to the 53-man roster, but he would cost the team nothing. He was a 5th round pick in 2019, played 4 seasons at Northwestern, is a local kid out of Wheaton, so he can play in some bad weather. Unfortunately, like any guy on a PS, he is not without flaws (some very similar to Trubisky), but if Nagy thought he could fix Trubisky, maybe he can fix Thorson? What do we have to lose? If not him, I would really consider this option. You can get a young guy with zero risk. If he doesn't work out, you lose nothing.

[madlithuanian]

23 hours ago, adam said:

Based on starting holes or lack of production, we have to address the following positions next year:

3x FA Holes: CB (Prince), S (HHCD), ILB (Trevathan)
3x Performance Holes: TE (Sharton), T (Masso), G (Danward)

That would be our 6 picks in the first 5 rounds. Then you can use a 6th on Kicker. 

Unless someone falls, I don't see the Bears drafting a QB.

 

I heard an interesting thing on the Hoge and Jahns Podcast. What about signing Clayton Thorson off the Dallas PS? We would have to bring him to the 53-man roster, but he would cost the team nothing. He was a 5th round pick in 2019, played 4 seasons at Northwestern, is a local kid out of Wheaton, so he can play in some bad weather. Unfortunately, like any guy on a PS, he is not without flaws (some very similar to Trubisky), but if Nagy thought he could fix Trubisky, maybe he can fix Thorson? What do we have to lose? If not him, I would really consider this option. You can get a young guy with zero risk. If he doesn't work out, you lose nothing.

I'd be OK with that.  Just not sure Pace would be.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 11/24/2019 at 11:31 AM, adam said:

Based on starting holes or lack of production, we have to address the following positions next year:

3x FA Holes: CB (Prince), S (HHCD), ILB (Trevathan)
3x Performance Holes: TE (Sharton), T (Masso), G (Danward)

That would be our 6 picks in the first 5 rounds. Then you can use a 6th on Kicker. 

Unless someone falls, I don't see the Bears drafting a QB.

 

I heard an interesting thing on the Hoge and Jahns Podcast. What about signing Clayton Thorson off the Dallas PS? We would have to bring him to the 53-man roster, but he would cost the team nothing. He was a 5th round pick in 2019, played 4 seasons at Northwestern, is a local kid out of Wheaton, so he can play in some bad weather. Unfortunately, like any guy on a PS, he is not without flaws (some very similar to Trubisky), but if Nagy thought he could fix Trubisky, maybe he can fix Thorson? What do we have to lose? If not him, I would really consider this option. You can get a young guy with zero risk. If he doesn't work out, you lose nothing.

I'd be good with kicking those tires.

I think Mitch will eventually get it, he is taking alot in and he is not the only one struggling with Nagy's offense.  Nearly the entire offense except for Robinson is having difficulties.  Nagy has said it takes 3-5 years to fully understand or to open the whole playbook. This is year 2.  Our patience is not on par with the curve.  Is it worth the growing pains when other NFL teams seem to do better with their young QBs?  Are we willing to start over which also restarts a new learning curve?  

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I'd be good with kicking those tires.

I think Mitch will eventually get it, he is taking alot in and he is not the only one struggling with Nagy's offense.  Nearly the entire offense except for Robinson is having difficulties.  Nagy has said it takes 3-5 years to fully understand or to open the whole playbook. This is year 2.  Our patience is not on par with the curve.  Is it worth the growing pains when other NFL teams seem to do better with their young QBs?  Are we willing to start over which also restarts a new learning curve?  

Interesting thoughts.  While watching some football new I heard some chatter about how broken the Eagles offense is.  I didn't stick around the hear the details just thought it was interesting since they have the QB who likely would have been league MVP two years ago before his injury.   Yet they struggle to put up points just like we do.  

[AZ54]

I expect we'll trade a player to gain back a pick, likely a WR.  IMO Ridley and Miller are two peas in a pod and then we have Wims who seems ready to contribute.  Gabriel is good but limited, he's really a 3/4 WR.  Anthony Miller seems like the candidate to leave IMO.  

[adam]

Bears now 16th in the draft order, Raiders 19th.

That makes the trade our 16th for the Raiders 51st. We also have our 2nd, which is now 47th (15th in 2nd for tie-breaker rotation with 4 teams).

The Raiders performance has more of an impact on our picks than the Bears so, so I would rather see the Bears win and go at least 8-8 or 9-7 (if they don't make the playoffs) and see the Raiders fall off and end no better than 8-8 (currently 5-6). That would give us two picks in the late 40s. The draft value of pick #48 is 420 pts. That would equal a later 2nd round pick #61 and a late 3rd round pick #93.

I like #47 + #61 + #93 better than #47 + #48.

Just because we already have a 2nd rounder, I would even consider flipping the #61 and moving back another 15 slots into the middle of the 3rd to pick up another 4th rounder.

So we could pick 47th (2nd), 76th (3rd), 93rd (3rd), 108th (4th), 4th Round Comp, 5th Round. So 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and 6 in the first 5 rounds. Not bad considering we didn't have a 1st, 3rd or 4th rounder.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Interesting thoughts.  While watching some football new I heard some chatter about how broken the Eagles offense is.  I didn't stick around the hear the details just thought it was interesting since they have the QB who likely would have been league MVP two years ago before his injury.   Yet they struggle to put up points just like we do.  

They can't keep their WC corps healthy.  Gone through something like 6-7 different receivers in a few weeks....

[Mongo3451]

They have Alshon "soft tissue" Jeffery.  Remember how people cried when we didn't overpay for him?

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

They can't keep their WC corps healthy.  Gone through something like 6-7 different receivers in a few weeks....

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Whether Trubisky can be our guy or not, the Bears need to hedge on that bet. I hope he can figure it out and be Drew Brees 2.0  if not it is time to get someone in to push him and no longer coddle him. 

2- QB Jalen Hurts - Could be a Prescott of the future. Been in big games, can do it with legs or arm.

Or  QB Jake Fromm (statefarm) to keep the Georgia connection alive.  He has less upside but capable of playing sooner (Kirk Cousins comparisons)

2 - OLB. Julian Okwara ND or Terrill Lewis Ala - The Bears need an answer opposite of Mack.  Floyd has not produced and cannot be counted on to.

4 OT Hakeem Adeniji KS - need to start piping in talent on the OT's

5 TE Matt Bushman BYU

5 OLB Zack Baun - the Bears need a couple OLBs to replace Lynch and Floyd. If Floyd can be kept on a reduced contract, they might be able to go OT/G here.

6 CB TJ Carter Memphis- they have hit on late round DBs before with Amos

6 CB Tony Pride ND - double up on CBs, need to find someone that can step in to replace Prince

7 S Jeremy Chinn - Southern Illinois

 

 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Whether Trubisky can be our guy or not, the Bears need to hedge on that bet. I hope he can figure it out and be Drew Brees 2.0  if not it is time to get someone in to push him and no longer coddle him. 

2- QB Jalen Hurts - Could be a Prescott of the future. Been in big games, can do it with legs or arm.

Or  QB Jake Fromm (statefarm) to keep the Georgia connection alive.  He has less upside but capable of playing sooner (Kirk Cousins comparisons)

2 - OLB. Julian Okwara ND or Terrill Lewis Ala - The Bears need an answer opposite of Mack.  Floyd has not produced and cannot be counted on to.

4 OT Hakeem Adeniji KS - need to start piping in talent on the OT's

5 TE Matt Bushman BYU

5 OLB Zack Baun - the Bears need a couple OLBs to replace Lynch and Floyd. If Floyd can be kept on a reduced contract, they might be able to go OT/G here.

6 CB TJ Carter Memphis- they have hit on late round DBs before with Amos

6 CB Tony Pride ND - double up on CBs, need to find someone that can step in to replace Prince

7 S Jeremy Chinn - Southern Illinois

 

 

I don't like either Fromm or Hurts because I don't see either reading defenses well.  I would take a shot on the guy who replaced Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, if he enters the draft.   The injury is serious but taking a shot on another first round QB who can sit on the bench for a season to fully heal works for me.  

[Mongo3451]

I don't like any draft that doesn't have OL in the first 2 of 4 picks. (One of them being a second rounder)  Gotta nab a pass rusher and TE somewhere.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Or  QB Jake Fromm (statefarm) to keep the Georgia connection alive.  He has less upside but capable of playing sooner (Kirk Cousins comparisons)

I would actually think he’s more along the lines of DeShaun Watson.  He’s been to two championship games and he’s only a Junior.  Lost the national championship to Bama his Freshman year (but only by 5) and many would say he should’ve won that game.  Last year he played against Texas in the Cotton bowl losinf by a TD.  His stats read pretty solid and he’s played against some solid SEC teams with a winning record; much better than an ACC 13 game starter from NC.

[Mongo3451]

Remember Chad Henne?  That's who Fromm reminds me of.

[killakrzydav]

Tua was the consensus number one over all pick prior to his injury y'all. No chance he's available when we pick.

[adam]

Our winning streak (3) and the Raiders losing streak has obviously changed the draft order for 2020. We would now be giving up pick #18 for pick #49 and our 2nd round pick is currently pick #50. If the Eagles win to go to 6-7, the Raiders 2nd round pick jumps to #45 (due to the tie rotation on picks). Every Raiders loss helps us a lot since we are losing our 1st and 3rd anyway, so our 2nd is the only relevant pick based on our draft position.

The Raiders 2nd rounder now looks like it will be our first pick now. They end the season with JAX, LAC, and DEN. All those teams are eliminated from playoff contention but could figure into the draft order. My assumption is the Raiders will win between 1-2 of those games and finish at best 8-8. That should give us a pick between 46-49. If we somehow find a way to make the playoffs, we would be trading them a pick in the 20's (or 30's) for a pick in the mid to late 40's. Either way, it is shaping up that we will have at least one pick in the 40's (from OAK) and our pick, which I wouldn't mind seeing it in the 50's or 60's since that would mean a playoff run occurred this year.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Needs: CB, OLB, TE, G, QB, RB, OT, S, ILB, K. 

If they can get two starters out of the draft it would be a success.  It might take trading down with one of the 2nds for a lower 2nd and a high 3rd, but those are highly valued and might be a tough sell.

[BearFan PHX]

Tua is going to be a top 5 pick, he will not be there for our mid 2nd rounder

[adam]

With the losses, both of our picks moved from 49 and 50 to 46 and 48 (gained 3 and 2 slots respectively). We are now giving up #18 for #46 (that's the equivalent of pick #44 in trade value).

The slight improvement in draft slots is equivalent to a late 4th rounder. So I am in the camp of playing some of the bottom roster guys to see what we have, putting injured guys on IR now and calling up some PS guys. If you win with them, great, if not, every loss helps. 

[adam]

My updated priority list is OL, TE, CB. With how bad Prince and Skrine have played, we really have to look at addressing CB. It is not #1, but should be right behind the O-Line and TE.

[Mongo3451]

31 minutes ago, adam said:

My updated priority list is OL, TE, CB. With how bad Prince and Skrine have played, we really have to look at addressing CB. It is not #1, but should be right behind the O-Line and TE.

I would say OL, pass rush, CB, TE.  

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

My updated priority list is OL, TE, CB. With how bad Prince and Skrine have played, we really have to look at addressing CB. It is not #1, but should be right behind the O-Line and TE.

I'm still a fan of Duke Shelley and think he'll grow into the starting NB role.  Skrine's contract says he's here next year regardless but best man plays.  I still like Skrine but I recognize he has some limitations.  However, we can't leave him alone on Adams with no coverage over the top.  That's a coaching issue not a player issue.  Either that or, as I just watched the replay, HHCD was out of position on that play.  We went single high safety and they split the field right in front of HHCD.  He had to honor the route right in front of him and with no pass rush that's what you get.  

I like Tolliver to take over for Prince, and we can add depth with a pick later in the draft.  

OT is my top priority followed by TE/OLB.  We won't be in a good spot for an OT but good OLB/TEs can often be found in Rd 2.  I'd take a safety too if they drop to us as I'm not sure HHCD will be back (not sure he should be either).  Bush isn't the answer but he might be worth keeping around as a depth player.