Bears 2020 Draft Outlook

[BearFan PHX]

Don't forget, there will be free agent money to play with.

And I agree, we need a new player for Leno. He is AWFUL.

[adam]

The free agent money is not as big as you think with huge pay jumps numerous players. We literally have to release several guys to get under the cap. We might be able to bring in one or two mid-tier free agents, but I don't see any top dollar guys coming to the Bears unless it is QB (Tannehill or Bridgewater).

[Mongo3451]

15 minutes ago, adam said:

The free agent money is not as big as you think with huge pay jumps numerous players. We literally have to release several guys to get under the cap. We might be able to bring in one or two mid-tier free agents, but I don't see any top dollar guys coming to the Bears unless it is QB (Tannehill or Bridgewater).

I think Tannehill is staying put.  If we are looking for a backup to Trubisky, how about Mariota?  They kinda have the same skill set.

I also think we need to cut who is underperforming the most, regardless of cap hit.  Time to shake the dead weight tree even if it's painful.  Sends a great message.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I think Tannehill is staying put.  If we are looking for a backup to Trubisky, how about Mariota?  They kinda have the same skill set.

I also think we need to cut who is underperforming the most, regardless of cap hit.  Time to shake the dead weight tree even if it's painful.  Sends a great message.

if you have to pay Leno anyway, better to keep him as a backup than to put him on the street, but I agree that getting paid should not equate to starting if you suck.

[Mongo3451]

30 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

if you have to pay Leno anyway, better to keep him as a backup than to put him on the street, but I agree that getting paid should not equate to starting if you suck.

Agreed.  Leno's replacement must be on the team first. Or they must be easily replaced.  I just don't want cap issues manning is settle on keeping players we know are not worth it.  I would honestly look at trying to rework Leno and Massie in the off season.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Leno is not going anywhere.  Not going to say they won't draft a LT prospect but there is no way they will start a rookie at the 2nd most important position in the NFL.  The Bears actually gain more yardage running LT and Left End.  Leno also ranks pretty well among LTs in QB protections.  He does get a lot of penalties, maybe because he needs every advantage. Sure it would be nice to get better there, but he will be there all of next year and hopefully there is a replacement pushing him for that spot 2021. 

With our draft position, I think they can get a great RG or maybe RT. We will see what the think of Cowherd and Barr, who should be in the picture next season. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Leno is not going anywhere.  Not going to say they won't draft a LT prospect but there is no way they will start a rookie at the 2nd most important position in the NFL.  The Bears actually gain more yardage running LT and Left End.  Leno also ranks pretty well among LTs in QB protections.  He does get a lot of penalties, maybe because he needs every advantage. Sure it would be nice to get better there, but he will be there all of next year and hopefully there is a replacement pushing him for that spot 2021. 

With our draft position, I think they can get a great RG or maybe RT. We will see what the think of Cowherd and Barr, who should be in the picture next season. 

Im thinking more of a Free Agent.

And I think Leno is done. We'll both see next year of course.

Edit - I will be specific. Leno will not be the starter by week 6 next year, and there is a very good chance he wont be the starter week 1.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

What’s the money status or need at ILB?  I’m guessing if anyone of the four; Trevathan, Smith, Kwit or KPL were to go it would be Danny (as much as I’d hate it).  But is it unusual for a team that runs a 3-4 base D to keep four ILBs?  
 

I was watching a clip from Tom Thayer on KPLs play last week and the dude is incredibly instinctive.  Makes real smart reads and reacts quickly.  Reminds me of a slower version of Smith or younger version of Trevathan.   I was a bit skeptical when they first signed him but these last few games he’s proved he belongs.  
 

PS: Just saw that he played Safety while in college.  Hmmmm...converted Safety to LB?  Where have we heard that before?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

PS: Just saw that he played Safety while in college.  Hmmmm...converted Safety to LB?  Where have we heard that before?

Bears draft Joel Iyiegbuniwe, who played safety in High School 😜

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Bears draft Joel Iyiegbuniwe, who played safety in High School 😜

Josh Woods ILB played Safety in college.  He looked ok in coverage in the preseason but out of place in between the tackles.  Position changes like this take time and if KPL is showing anything it's that patience can sometimes be rewarded.  I definitely see Woods back next year and, assuming it's Roquan/Kwit/KPL, then adding a new player to compete with Woods makes sense.    

https://www.chicagobears.com/team/depth-chart

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Bears draft Joel Iyiegbuniwe, who played safety in High School 😜

To be fair, I did write ‘college’ but I did not realize he and Woods both made the conversion.  (Was actually thinking of Urlacher).

Wouldn’t it be sweet if any one of these three guys; Iyiegbuniwe, Woods or KPL were able to rise to the level of play equal to Urlacher?  

[AZ54]

11 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To be fair, I did write ‘college’ but I did not realize he and Woods both made the conversion.  (Was actually thinking of Urlacher).

Wouldn’t it be sweet if any one of these three guys; Iyiegbuniwe, Woods or KPL were able to rise to the level of play equal to Urlacher?  

It would be sweet but Urlacher was an athletic freak, especially at his size.  Roquan Smith speed and coverage skills plus another 25lbs.  That doesn't come along too often.  Most people remember Urlacher is his later years for obvious reasons but when he was young he was running down Michael Vick.  

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

It would be sweet but Urlacher was an athletic freak, especially at his size.  Roquan Smith speed and coverage skills plus another 25lbs.  That doesn't come along too often.  Most people remember Urlacher is his later years for obvious reasons but when he was young he was running down Michael Vick.  

Yeah, I remember a play where he went sideline to sideline and did a superman dive to break up a pass.  The announcer went on record to say that he was the only MLB in history that should make that play.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To be fair, I did write ‘college’ but I did not realize he and Woods both made the conversion.  (Was actually thinking of Urlacher).

Wouldn’t it be sweet if any one of these three guys; Iyiegbuniwe, Woods or KPL were able to rise to the level of play equal to Urlacher?  

I was kind of joking on Iggy, I remembered something about he is a tweener S/LB size and speed wise.  It would be nice to see him come in the picture as we thought he would after spending a 4th RD. 

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I was kind of joking on Iggy, I remembered something about he is a tweener S/LB size and speed wise.  It would be nice to see him come in the picture as we thought he would after spending a 4th RD. 

 

 

Indeed.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Yeah, I remember a play where he went sideline to sideline and did a superman dive to break up a pass.

When I saw Kwit nearly intercept Rodgers pass last week I immediately thought of Urlacher when he did it (against Rodgers) and returned it something like 50 yards. They looked very similar streaking across the middle.

 

 

[Stinger226]

I think the first 2 picks will be a Pass Rusher and a QB prospect.  I think if it fits we move back to get an extra pick. I think if the draft falls right , we could be looking at a TE ot OL also. I think Trevathan is gone unless he does a team friendly contract but we resign Kwit to take over as a starter.  I hate to see Trevathan gone but the cap hot for Mack starts next year. They will add a TE but unfortunately  I don't see in the second round.  I think they count on Burton back healthy ( would have to eat his contract), Jasper and Holtz will be back and one new TE. Maybe Raymond will get a chance to play. Ebron and Henry are free agents this year but will not spend a large contract on a TE until Burton is done as important as that position is to Nagy. Drafting a PRusher is critical for us to let Floyd walk. Floyd's 5th year tagged is only guaranteed for injury so I could see either a team friendly contract or a trade going out the door.  Probably a 6th rounder. They kept Vaughters around maybe he does something. I don't think they bring back Lynch. This offseason is going to be tricky. 

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think the first 2 picks will be a Pass Rusher and a QB prospect.  I think if it fits we move back to get an extra pick. I think if the draft falls right , we could be looking at a TE ot OL also. I think Trevathan is gone unless he does a team friendly contract but we resign Kwit to take over as a starter.  I hate to see Trevathan gone but the cap hot for Mack starts next year. They will add a TE but unfortunately  I don't see in the second round.  I think they count on Burton back healthy ( would have to eat his contract), Jasper and Holtz will be back and one new TE. Maybe Raymond will get a chance to play. Ebron and Henry are free agents this year but will not spend a large contract on a TE until Burton is done as important as that position is to Nagy. Drafting a PRusher is critical for us to let Floyd walk. Floyd's 5th year tagged is only guaranteed for injury so I could see either a team friendly contract or a trade going out the door.  Probably a 6th rounder. They kept Vaughters around maybe he does something. I don't think they bring back Lynch. This offseason is going to be tricky. 

I don't see us taking a QB in the 2nd Rd this year.  For one we're picking so late it's not likely we'll get a good player in the middle of Rd 2 and we'd definitely be skipping over talent that could help us win games in 2020.  We have to accept we'll be in Trubisky's final tryout year and we should focus on getting him as much help as we can via Oline/TE/RB.   

That yields two likely scenarios:   

First Trubisky fails miserably and our record is poor therefore we're drafting in the top 15 in 2021.   That's a much better place to be to go after a QB than the middle of Rd 2.  In this case you now have a young rookie QB who will also benefit from having a better Oline/running game/TE scenario than we have today.  

Second:  If Trubisky continues to play as he has done for more or less the last 5 games then he's a QB we can win with not unlike Garoppolo, but we've added talent that further helps us in the playoffs in 2021 and beyond.   

Third less likely option:  It all clicks for Trubisky and he's the QB we've been waiting for.  Regardless of where you fall on the possibility of this happening we'd still be better off adding more talent other than QB to the roster.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I don't see us taking a QB in the 2nd Rd this year.  For one we're picking so late it's not likely we'll get a good player in the middle of Rd 2 and we'd definitely be skipping over talent that could help us win games in 2020.  We have to accept we'll be in Trubisky's final tryout year and we should focus on getting him as much help as we can via Oline/TE/RB.   

That yields two likely scenarios:   

First Trubisky fails miserably and our record is poor therefore we're drafting in the top 15 in 2021.   That's a much better place to be to go after a QB than the middle of Rd 2.  In this case you now have a young rookie QB who will also benefit from having a better Oline/running game/TE scenario than we have today.  

Second:  If Trubisky continues to play as he has done for more or less the last 5 games then he's a QB we can win with not unlike Garoppolo, but we've added talent that further helps us in the playoffs in 2021 and beyond.   

Third less likely option:  It all clicks for Trubisky and he's the QB we've been waiting for.  Regardless of where you fall on the possibility of this happening we'd still be better off adding more talent other than QB to the roster.  

Since Trubisky somewhat rebounded, I no longer see the Bears using a 2nd RD pick on a QB either better to wait as AZ says.  I can see them getting a good Guard to try to solidify the center of the oline again. OT is a possibility and decent RTs can be found in RD2 also.  TE is definitely on the need list, that piece has been critically missing and hurting this offense and with Pace, I can see him trading up again to get one (sigh).  Defense wise, the Bears need another pass rusher to bring the heat. Floyd does well on everything but that and not worth 13 million. CB/S because I don't think Prince comes back and HaHa might seek more money.  I will say another DT/DE could be in the mix because you can see how the D dropped off after Hicks injury and you rarely even know if Goldman is on the team. It is time some of the younger players step up and being out of the hunt is prime time to play them. I'd like to see Iggy, Bush, Tolliver, and Shelly get a majority of the playing time. 

[adam]

We really need OAK to lose next week and for us to lose as well. They can still make the playoffs which is pretty crazy.

We want the Bears and Raiders to lose next week and for the following teams to win: 7 win teams that would pass us in draft order: TB (plays ATL), DAL (plays WAS), IND (plays JAX) and teams that would tie us in draft order: CLE (plays CIN), DEN (plays OAK), and NYJ (plays BUF). Based on the draft rotation for ties, we would have the worst pick in the 1st round (to OAK) and then the 2nd worst pick in the 2nd as we move up the tie breaker order. 

Tankathon has us at #18 and OAK at #14, that would give us the 17th and 18th picks in the 2nd round, but that will change based on next week's games.

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

[Stinger226]

We will be picking about 45 , as the draft will play out, it could be OT, RG, edge, TE, S, ILB , CB or a QB. The most critical needs in my opinion are OL or TE. The draft class is weak at TE . In many mocks I've seen, not any taken in the first round and only a few picked in the second.  We could have our choice of TEs but is that good value at that spot. I think Pace takes the BPA . We could get a stud RG at that spot and turn around and draft the best TE in our slot a few picks later. We have to get a QB prospect in this draft. There are 4 to 5 taken in all the drafts in the first 2 rounds, so if we want a QB with any chance of success, it may have to be in the second.  As AZ pointed out, OT may be our most glaring need but all the top ones will be gone before we pick. A stud OG , then move Coward out to LT and Bars to RT may be our best option for 2020. They at least will compete for a starter job at both OTs.  I think  Leno is the worst on the oline but will not be cut this year due to cap hit but at get a young guy in there to grow into a more consistent performer.  We are in such a tight spot with little draft capital and not enough money to fix all our weaknesses in Free agency. 

[Stinger226]

On 11/24/2019 at 11:47 AM, adam said:

Right now the Bears are tied for the 12th worst team in the league with CLE and JAX (oh joy). Since we have the toughest SOS, we get the lesser pick (14th) in the first (to OAK) and then the 13th pick in the 2nd, and the 12th pick in the 3rd (to OAK).

If the season ended today, we would have the 45th pick in the 2nd round and somewhere around the 52nd pick from the Raiders. Without 3rd and 5th Round picks, the Bears almost have to use one of those to trade down. I would rather use the second one and do something like this:

1. Select #45
2. Trade #52 (OAK) for #60 + late 4th + late 5th
3. Select #60 (from trade)
4. Trade late 4th and Eagles 6th to move up in the 4th
5. Select mid-4th (from trade)
6. Select 4th Round Comp (Amos)
7. Select 5th Round
8. Select 5th Round (from trade)
9. Select 6th Round 
10. Select 7th Round

This scenario would give us 6 picks in rounds 2-5, where Pace has better success.

 

This sounds like a Pace type draft and would be all in on it. This is where he excels in the draft.  I would be happy if he never had a first rounder again considering his record. 

[AZ54]

There is a lot of angst out there after a disappointing season, myself included, but I believe this team is much closer to being a winning, and even Superbowl contending roster, than most people think.  For one, if we just returned to having a good running game we would have likely won 3 more games this year.   Pick 3 among.... Packers week 1, Raiders week 5, Chargers week 6, Eagles week 9, Rams week 11 and it's easy to see a 9-10 win roster.  Starting from there changes our perspective a bit.  

Add in Akiem Hicks who made a very noticeable difference early on in the Packers game, and/or Roquan Smith/Trevathan, and it's not hard to see 3 wins among those 5 games.   Even with the defensive players being available we might be a 9 win team right now, so 10 wins isn't that much of a stretch if we can fix a couple issues.  

We have glaring needs are at RG, OT, and TE, and pass rusher.  Lesser needs at WR (gotta get some speed on the field), CB and S.  We'll have to make some decisions at ILB too.   But we don't have a top QB so we have to get a running game to support Mitch. 

CB:  IMO in his limited play Tolliver looks ready to take over for Prince next year so I view that as a wash because it's not like Prince played great this year.   I like Duke Shelley and he should be a solid backup for us next year at both slot and outside positions.  Need to add 1 more for depth/competition.  

We'll have a hole to fill at SS but HHCD has been the average player we expected him to be...a bit better in pass coverage than Amos and a bit worse in run support.  We should be able to find someone to get similar play either in the draft or lesser FA if we choose.  

We won't get everything we want but we can certainly fill several of these positions this offseason with players who can contribute.   Rumor is that Coward is injured.  I hope we get to see Bars, a likely 3rd Rd selection in 2019 before his injury, this week and get a feel for what he can do at RG.  Same for Tolliver.   

There is some good potential in the two young TEs we have on the roster.  Not enough to fully rely on them as starters but they should only be better next year.    I expect the Shaheen and Sowell experiments will come to a close and we'll draft someone.  

Assuming Bars fills the gap at RG, then edge rusher, TE, and good OT depth are the key positions we should focus on.  Finding additional pass rush mitigates the needs at CB/S and even some of the transition risk from Trevathan to Kwit/KPL.   I rank them in that order too.  

https://www.chicagobears.com/video/j-p-holtz-shows-versatility-vs-chiefs-thayer-s-playbook

 

[Mongo3451]

OL and pass rush are definitely the top two priorities.  After that, it's speed WR and DB.

TE is position of need, but not as high as the others.  Holtz, Horsted, Burton and a draft pick should satisfy the TE position.  I still think Patterson should get a look at it, as he is physical and a nasty matchup.

[adam]

Right now we draft #49 and #50 (Oak) due to the tie breaker rotation. Oakland is currently the worst 7-8 team with the weakest SOS, they would draft first in the 1st and drop to the last 7-8 team in the 2nd. We are the best 7-8 team, so we would move up one slot from 50 to 49.

Either way, it would be really helpful if both the Bears and Raiders lost, especially the Raiders who could still make the playoffs at 8-8. That would be icing on the cake for the season. The Raiders make the playoffs and give us an even worse draft pick. 

Just based on how this season turned out, the Mack trade has gotten considerably worse for the Bears.