Cowboys at Bears Week 14 - Playoff Week W-4 Official Game Thread (Thu, Dec 5, 7:20PM CT/FOX/Bears +2.0, O/U 42.5)

[adam]

Bears are two-point dogs at home. 

The wheels have fallen off the Cowboys in their last two games and the Bills and Pats have given the Bears a blueprint for success. Dallas has 1 win against a team with more than 3 wins, the 5-7 Eagles. 

Trubisky is playing for his career. He will get a full week to prep for the Cowboys playing outside in the cold. The Bears need this game more than the Cowboys.

Bears 20-12

[Bears4Ever_34]

I just have an awful feeling about this game. Even though they've won their last 2, they have really struggled to dominate two teams that had no business even being in the game in the first place. Detroit was playing a game with their 3rd string quarterback, and the Bears needed a game winning drive on their final possession to come from behind and win. The Cowboys defense is good enough to make it difficult for the Bears to score 17-20 points, and I really have a bad feeling about Amari Cooper running free against the Bears loose coverage defense with Fuller and Amukamara. I'm also a bit nervous about the Bears run defense against this Dallas offensive line.

I guess one of the things going for the Bears is that it's going to be cold, and that might be a factor for Dallas, especially while they are struggling. The Bears would have to jump on them early and try to take their will in the first half. Easier said than done.

I'd say this is a 50/50 game. I can see it going either way, but at this point, with the way this year has gone, I'm just expecting major disappointment. They give us just enough to get curious, and then rip it all away.

Although, I suppose it could be even worse.. You could beat the Cowboys and then allow Aaron Rodgers to stick another dagger into our hearts a week later..

[Bears4Ever_34]

One thing I will say though: If the Bears somehow miraculously finish the season 10-6 and get into the playoffs, they're going to be a team nobody wants to play. They'd have won their last 6 games, including finishing the season beating 4 current playoff teams in a row. Their confidence would have to be through the roof. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

22 hours ago, adam said:

Bears are two-point dogs at home. 

The wheels have fallen off the Cowboys in their last two games and the Bills and Pats have given the Bears a blueprint for success. Dallas has 1 win against a team with more than 3 wins, the 5-7 Eagles. 

Trubisky is playing for his career. He will get a full week to prep for the Cowboys playing outside in the cold. The Bears need this game more than the Cowboys.

Bears 20-12

I can't believe Cowboys have a strong defense and the top rated offense and have the record they do.  I would be honestly happy if Bears went 2-2 in this final stretch of 4. Doesn't work for playoffs but I think these are all "playoff" teams that they are playing so if they finished the year with that run and a positive trend (most importantly in QB play). It would be huge. I'd feel better about this game with Hicks but I get worried about playaction and Ezekiel and what it could do, combined with the fact that the Dallas pass rush is really good.  God I wish the Bears could consistently run the football and do the little things that helped QB's have an easier time adjusting.  

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I can't believe Cowboys have a strong defense and the top rated offense and have the record they do.  I would be honestly happy if Bears went 2-2 in this final stretch of 4. Doesn't work for playoffs but I think these are all "playoff" teams that they are playing so if they finished the year with that run and a positive trend (most importantly in QB play). It would be huge. I'd feel better about this game with Hicks but I get worried about playaction and Ezekiel and what it could do, combined with the fact that the Dallas pass rush is really good.  God I wish the Bears could consistently run the football and do the little things that helped QB's have an easier time adjusting.  

We must run the ball in this game and we'll need more out of our TEs, whoever they may be.  TEs need to be good at blocking or good getting out in the route for quick gains to offset the pass rush.   Dallas' Oline against our Dline is a concern but if there is a game where you want Kwit playing run defense it's this one.  On top of that Roquan is back to elite play.  Those two need to keep Zeke in check.  

Dallas started off the season with NYG, Wash, and MIami.  At 3-0 they were on the way to the Superbowl.  Since then they are 3-4 with two of those wins against the Giants and Lions.  These two teams might as well be looking in the mirror as at each other.  I'll say the better QB wins the day and I have no idea which one that will be.  

[adam]

I still think it's crazy that we could be a 1/2 game back of Minnesota on Thursday with a win. 

Having Kwit in I think works to our advantage, Elliott only gets about 3-4 targets in the passing game (screens and dump offs) per game. Teams seem to be doing the whole two double team trap game with the first two blockers slipping off to take on the 2nd level.  We have faced some pretty good RB's this year (Jacobs, Cook, Lindsay, Jones, Gurley) and for the most part held them in check. We need to do it for one more game without Hicks, then we get a fresh legged big man back in the heart of the defense. 

My biggest concern outside of kicker is Gallup or Cooper, whoever is not on Fuller's side. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

This is going to be a hard game. Dallas pass rush is great, they have a highly ranked offense and defense, and from a pass defense perspective, only 4 QB's have gone for over 250 yards against them and one of them did it in garbage time. Just 2 QB's have gone for over 300 yards.   I get that you are implying we are getting the Cowboys coming off a loss...but they are going to be fired up after a couple tough games and advanced stats are still very much in their favor (to the point we would kind of need them to self destruct to win the game, imo).

I say that because I haven't seen this team put anything remotely close to a complete and clean game together all season.  Part of that starts with the fact that WE CAN"T RUN THE FOOTBALL and thus we make everything harder.  

[Mongo3451]

15 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This is going to be a hard game. Dallas pass rush is great, they have a highly ranked offense and defense, and from a pass defense perspective, only 4 QB's have gone for over 250 yards against them and one of them did it in garbage time. Just 2 QB's have gone for over 300 yards.   I get that you are implying we are getting the Cowboys coming off a loss...but they are going to be fired up after a couple tough games and advanced stats are still very much in their favor (to the point we would kind of need them to self destruct to win the game, imo).

I say that because I haven't seen this team put anything remotely close to a complete and clean game together all season.  Part of that starts with the fact that WE CAN"T RUN THE FOOTBALL and thus we make everything harder.  

Yes to all.  The only positive I have is that it looks like Nagy and therefore Trubisky are getting better.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 12/3/2019 at 8:10 PM, adam said:

My biggest concern outside of kicker is Gallup or Cooper, whoever is not on Fuller's side. 

THIS.  I see the FS (Jackson or HHCD???) cheating over to Amukamura's side to help with coverage.  And Skrine covering the front end of that gap when they don't have multiple receivers lined up.  

My biggest concern, besides Trubisky reverting to his bad habits, are the front 3-4.  Without Hicks in there they will probably collapse on the line to allow second level blocking (while double and triple teaming wherever Mack is with a TE).  Smith will have to have his head on a  swivel and probably spy Prescott as his primary read.  Zak can be mobile but don't think he really has shown that as much the last year or so.  Kwit's primary concern will be Elliott and wherever he goes then (along with Smith) be on the lookout for a TE or Z receiver crossing over the middle.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

In related news I see Amukamua is doubtful with a hammy injury.  So Tolliver is next man up it would appear.

Also see Kyle Vanderesch (sp) is out for Dallas...that’s one less good LB on their team for our team to worry about.

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/injury-update-amukamara-doubtful-with-hamstring

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

The wild card race looks like this:

SF 10-2
Minn 8-4
LARams 7-5
Bears 6-6

If we win tonight, we will be 7-6, a half game behind LARams (who own the tiebreaker over us) and 1 1/2 games behind Minnesota (and we own the tie breaker over them, but will play a second time)

We are on the cusp of the playoffs, but a lot needs to happen for that to be real.

Getting Hicks back will make a huge difference, but the Bears will have to pull this one out without him against a good Dallas team.

[madlithuanian]

Our playoffs being tonight.  Let go Bears!  

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

The wild card race looks like this:

SF 10-2
Minn 8-4
LARams 7-5
Bears 6-6

If we win tonight, we will be 7-6, a half game behind LARams (who own the tiebreaker over us) and 1 1/2 games behind Minnesota (and we own the tie breaker over them, but will play a second time)

We are on the cusp of the playoffs, but a lot needs to happen for that to be real.

Getting Hicks back will make a huge difference, but the Bears will have to pull this one out without him against a good Dallas team.

Bears have a 2.2% chance to go undefeated and a 6.5% to go 3-1. Odds that Vikings and Rams both go 1-3 AND Bears go 3-1 = 0.2% chance. The odds are actually better for Bears to go 4-0 and MIN/LAR to go 2-2.

 

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

Bears have a 2.2% chance to go undefeated and a 6.5% to go 3-1. Odds that Vikings and Rams both go 1-3 AND Bears go 3-1 = 0.2% chance. The odds are actually better for Bears to go 4-0 and MIN/LAR to go 2-2.

 

well we can take some solace in the fact that one way or another, those numbers are going to change drastically based on tonight's (and this weekend's) outcomes

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Opening drive was discouraging. Dallas wiped out the majority of then1st qtr clock and scored 7. The Bears come out looking to make a passing game 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Roquan ruled out for the remainder of the game with a pectoral injury.  This could be coincidence 🤔🤔🤔

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Give Trubisky some credit guys, he is carrying this team tonight. Put together a nice 4 game streak. 

[adam]

On 12/5/2019 at 8:07 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Roquan ruled out for the remainder of the game with a pectoral injury.  This could be coincidence 🤔🤔🤔

He has some bad luck with the throwback uniforms. If it's a tear, he will be out for 6 months, then 3 months for rehab. If he has surgery immediately, he could be back in time for Week 1. 

[adam]

Huge win for the Bears, Trubisky looked great and if the defender doesn't make a toe drag INT, he would've had an almost perfect game. 

The one negative outside of the horrendous officiating was the defense taking the 4th quarter off again. 10 late pts given up and needing to stop an onside kick to seal the game. A win is a win but we can't let teams hang around like that. 

[Stinger226]

Smith, Trevathan, Hicks, prince, RRH all out of the game and still played good D. Awesome 

[adam]

A few more drops by the receivers, Miller with one that would've sealed the game. 

Roquan left with an injury early and was getting burnt on the field before the apparent injury. For how well he was playing coming in, it was really odd that he was getting burned left and right on the Cowboys first drive where they scored a TD. Interestingly the Cowboys didn't score again until the 3rd quarter with Roquan off the field. 

Trubisky hit a bunch of different receivers and used his legs for several first downs and a great TD run. Now teams will have to account for his running. 

[adam]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

Smith, Trevathan, Hicks, prince, RRH all out of the game and still played good D. Awesome 

Add Burton, Shaheen, Long, Massie, and Gabriel on offense. 

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, adam said:

Add Burton, Shaheen, Long, Massie, and Gabriel on offense. 

addition by subtraction.

every one of their replacements has outplayed them. It's great to see the depth players stepping up.

The two new tight ends have been looking promising.

Lucas III is outplaying Massie.

Miller is growing. He still has to mature, but he is a tough player and getting better.

Even Nagy has settled into running bootlegs and power running schemes without pulling OL.

I wish we had someone to sub in for Leno though.

On defense, Pierre-Louis had a great game. Kwit is doing well too. Tolliver looking good as well.

And we get Hicks back next week.

Trubisky played well enough last week and especially this week that he will be the starter next year. So our early draft picks and free agency money can go to OL, CB, OLB, DE and TE.

So Nagy has done a good job keeping the team on track. Dont get me wrong a big part of the obstacle they have had to overcome has been his fault too, but I think if they play well down the stretch here, everyone from Pace and Nagy to Trubisky probably saved their job for another year tonight. I still think Nagy and the OL have been the real problem, and Mitch is no hall of famer, but they do seem to be turning a corner.

And getting Hicks back is going to make a huge difference.

I sure hope Roquan Smith is OK.

 

[adam]

Impressive:

 

[AZ54]

Lots of positives in this game especially overcoming some negative plays (INT/fumble/Miller drop).