Post Week 2 Power Rankings

[adam]

I know most media outlets had the Bears at 6-10 or 7-9 going into the season, but that is a tall task now with a 2-0 start. Things would have to really go south to end the season with anything less than 8 wins. That's good news.

Despite being one of 11 2-0 teams, the Bears crack the top 15 in only two of the national power rankings I could find. 

NFL.com ranks the Bears 19th, USA Today 19th, Bleacher Report 18th, ESPN 17th, Yahoo Sports 15th, and SI.com ranks us 14th (the highest of the few I looked at). 

Right now the Bears have played the 2nd easiest schedule besides the Bills. Yet you will see the Bills are being ranked in the top 10 and sometimes even the top 5 in some rankings (which is crazy to me).

So how accurate are the power rankings compared to advanced analytics?

Using Sagarin ratings (which has been around a long time), the Bears are ranked 18th, the Bills 10th.  The Bears play the Falcons who are ranked 22nd, so that is a good thing. We should win a game against the Falcons majority of the time. 

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/

For DVOA, which is team efficiency, the Bears come in at #18. Offensively, the Bears are 24th, showing that they have not been very good outside of the 4th quarter against Detroit. The defense comes in at #6, which is surprising to me but a good sign. Special Teams comes in at #23, which is not good. We need some better output from that unit.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2020

According to FBOs playoff odds, the Bears have a 56.1% chance to make the playoffs, currently the 8th team in the NFC, which would just miss the 3rd Wild Card slot (to TB). The NFC West has 3 undefeated teams and the 1-1 49ers. That will all change when they start playing each other. 

FiveThirtyEight also does simulated predictions. Right now they have the Bears at 13th, which is very promising. They predict a 10-6 finish with a 65% chance to make the playoffs and coming in as the 7th seed. Very interesting to me.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

If the Detroit RB had caught the ball, we would have lost. It wasnt a definitive win over the Giants either. I'm happy with where we are ranked right now.

Id love to keep piling up wins and move up the rankings, but there's no reason to get there prematurely. This probably helps the team, keep the fire lit etc.

[adam]

16 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

If the Detroit RB had caught the ball, we would have lost. It wasnt a definitive win over the Giants either. I'm happy with where we are ranked right now.

Id love to keep piling up wins and move up the rankings, but there's no reason to get there prematurely. This probably helps the team, keep the fire lit etc.

Yeah, I agree, but like in the Giants game, if Miller holds on to the TD pass that hit his hands, it's a blowout.

A lot of games come down to one or two plays, there just not always at the end of the game like the Swift play. The ones at the end of the game are just magnified but have no more value than ones earlier in the game that might have had the same effect/result. 

[BearFan PHX]

good points adam, and of course I agree.

Im just saying, based on what I've seen it's too early to say this team is "good" - they do seem to have a lot of talent, but they need it to gel, especially on the defensive front, and, as always, in the rhythm of the playcalling. This week was much better than last week in that regard I am glad to say.

[Stinger226]

If you look at all the close games over the last two weeks there are several plays that if made could have changed the outcome of its game. That is what is exciting about football, it is not a regular scripted scenario in every game. We have a long way to go.  Our first 3 or 4 games are kinda preseason games to me. We should look better this week but with flaws. If we can get to 4-2 or 5-1 in our first 6 games, we have the chance at a good season. I made a BetRivers future bet that the Bears go over 7.5 wins. I think I win that bet. Positives: MT has looked better at times, we are running the ball with authority, and Jaylon Johnson looks like a stud. Also we are healthy. (huge) The arrow is pointing up.

[BearFan PHX]

On 9/24/2020 at 11:02 AM, Stinger226 said:

If you look at all the close games over the last two weeks there are several plays that if made could have changed the outcome of its game. That is what is exciting about football, it is not a regular scripted scenario in every game. We have a long way to go.  Our first 3 or 4 games are kinda preseason games to me. We should look better this week but with flaws. If we can get to 4-2 or 5-1 in our first 6 games, we have the chance at a good season. I made a BetRivers future bet that the Bears go over 7.5 wins. I think I win that bet. Positives: MT has looked better at times, we are running the ball with authority, and Jaylon Johnson looks like a stud. Also we are healthy. (huge) The arrow is pointing up.

I agree, and I also agree that the first few games are like preseason games, that unfortunately count. We've gotten lucky / played well, and we have two wins which is great, and soon the team should start to gel. Then we can see what we've got.

Heck, even the 1985 Bears didn't really come together even at 2-0 until the Monday Night game against the Vikings. Not that this team is that one!

And also, yes, Johnson looks great - plugging in a rookie at CB and getting that kind of productivity is rare. For a second rounder, it's even more rare. Pace gets credit for this one, even as he takes the blame for others.

Also, the more I see film stufy, the less I'm sure about Leno, but so far 2-0 lets keep it rolling.