Alaskan Grizzly

Found an article that explains the NFL wants to keep the invitees to a minimum (no more than 15) to avoid anyone having to linger in the Green Room. So your list appears to be near complete. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-didnt-project-bo-nix-michael-penix-jr-among-top-15-to-20-selections

Eating and feeling my oats. 😎👍

And I should add that if I’m wrong about Williams that means we’re winning “multiple super bowls” as you’ve guaranteed. So why wouldn’t I be happy about that? 🤷🏻‍♂️

I see. So I should only “cherry-pick” all the positive stuff … even (as you say) if this analysis is accurate? You know having a separate viewpoint than your own is ok right? It’s what makes the world go around and TalkBears what it is. Or am I being too “inane”? “arguing against taking Walter Payton” …seriously?

So the projection on Williams remains to be seen in the NFL? "Holds the ball loose from his body, and ball security is a major concern (in the pocket and as a ball carrier)" "guilty of bypassing singles and doubles as he searches for home runs and asks too much of his offensive line (240 of his dropbacks the last two seasons lasted 4-plus seconds)" - One of the points AZ mentioned "can get stuck on reads too long, and eyes need to be more efficient and manipulative … pressure will speed up his process and lead to negative results(see 2023 Notre Dame tape)"

Speaking as a fan of trading the #1 overall allows him to choose more potential "blue chippers" than putting all in on the one "potential generational" pick. To me that's by far less risky. I'm seeing more and more people say they don't expect great things from Caleb in year one but should do better in year two. While also saying most of the other QB prospects need at least one year on the bench (etc) before they will see results. If what we hear and read is true and Poles and Waldron are building this great offensive machine, why couldn't any of the top 3-5 QBs succeed if they are also given that same year of growth?

His analysis of Fields in 2021. Who he had ranked 4th overall (at QB) after Trey Lance and Zach Wilson: STRENGTHS: Well-strapped together athlete who takes care of his body…moves with the fluid, composed feet of a former shortstop…shows a natural feel for timing, touch and accuracy on throws within structure…strong arm and shows the ability to drive the football, especially when he steps and torques through his hips…sturdy in the pocket…recognizes defensive back assignments and places the ball away from trouble on his throws…above-average stride speed and flashes a burst when he [7] tucks and runs…noteworthy toughness to finish through contact and play through pain (see the 2021 Sugar Bowl vs. Clemson)…even-keeled play personality and shows the same steady focus on each play…voted a 2020 team captain…self-assured competitor who inspires confidence in his teammates (Ohio State head coach Ryan Day: “The mindset of a young man of that age is so impressive”)…outstanding production at Ohio State with a career 67-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 19 rushing touchdowns…finished with a 20-2 record as the Buckeyes’ starter (only two losses came in the College Football Playoffs). WEAKNESSES: Undeveloped field vision…locks onto his preferred read and doesn’t consistently find his second and third options (sometimes by design)…needs to be quicker eliminating things post-snap…stares down reads and doesn’t play with a consistent sense of urgency…needs to be better taking what the defense gives him instead of forcing throws…his passes lose life when attempting to throw off-balance…ball security needs work: holds the ball loose in the pocket and as a runner (12 fumbles over the last two seasons)…needs to do a better job of avoiding hits…benefited from an all-star cast around him (both players and play-calling). SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Ohio State, Fields was one of college football’s best players the last two seasons in Day’s multiple spread offense. With Jake Fromm blocking him at Georgia, he transferred to Columbus in 2019 and needed only 21 games to reach No. 2 in Ohio State history in career passing touchdowns (67). He twice earned Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Fields has had the spotlight on him for a long time and he hasn’t wilted while displaying the confidence and competitive toughness that teammates rally behind. He shows excellent tempo when the play is on-schedule, but he must speed up his target-to-target progression reads and improve his urgency when the initial target is taken away. Overall, Fields’ decision-making is more methodical than spontaneous, but he has high-ceiling traits with his athleticism, accuracy and intangibles. He projects as a high-end NFL starter if he can quicken his reads and process.

Meanwhile JJ is going back to his college # for next season. Last time we saw this Jackson changed to #4…after getting an updated contract. 😬

Just so you know you're not alone, I stand with you in solidarity. I'm all in on the idea of trading the #1 but not as sure on who the QB should be. Daniels is definitely a consideration. FWIW in friends that I talk with who know football (not necessarily Bears football) seem to all agree that Williams isn't the guy. So there are a few still out there.

It does appear Swifty is starting to buy into Caleb.

When you say "consensus pick" how does one qualify? You mention that neither Young nor Winston were "consensus" because in the case of Winston, he had Mariota picked right after him. In theory if Williams is picked #1 and Daniels is picked #2 would that title still apply to Williams? Secondly I'm intersted in how you broke up your tiers especially with Mayfield and Murray being in the same one (or third tier if I'm reading correctly). Both those guys, and Williams, having been products of the Lincoln Riley offense. In fact here's how they all did: Mayfield (three years at OU*): 808/1157 12,292 yds (69.8 pct) 10.6 YA 119 TDs 21 INTs 189.4 rating Murray (two years at OU**): 278/398 4,720 yds (69.8 pct) 11.9 YA 45 TDs 7 INTs 203.3 rating Williams (two years at USC): 599/888 8,170 yds (67.5 pct) 9.2 YA 72 TDs 10 INTs 169.2 rating * Riley was the OC/QB coach for OU from 2015-16 then HC starting in 2017 (overlap with Mayfield) ** Murray overlapped with Mayfield in 2017 (at OU) so his sample size is smaller as a starter for the one year he was (2018)

This was more as a "for example" especially how subjective (aka guessing game) this all is. Sure I get that RBs are "devalued" but apparently enough "experts" think highly enough of them to rate them based on their raw abilities. Similar to how last year you reminded us of how the volume of throws that Bagent while in college should be considered in how he would do in the NFL. Interestingly, the subjectiveness is enough that sites like Sporting News and CBS Sports (links below) both rank MHJ as the number one player available over Caleb. CBS Sports even goes a step further and ranks the positions overall in comparison to their group. For example: DE Khalid Duke for Kansas State is ranked #1 in the position but #262 overall on their "Big Board of 390 players available. Wouldn't it be something if Poles bought into the idea of MHJ being enough of a prospect that he'd go with him over Caleb? 😈 https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2024-top-100-rankings-best-players/9a5959cd101d2a8c439568a0 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/

Interesting take, that is if you use PFF as any sort of reliable ranking. Their 'Top 300 picks' show RBs as low as #227 on their list with a rating of 94.9. Compare that to Roshon Johnson (picked #4 at 115 last season) held a PFF rating of "80+ all four seasons" Samples of this year's group at RB: PFF #71 Jaylen Wright - HB Tennessee Rating: 91.0 PFF #207 Frank Gore Jr - HB Southern Miss Rating: 88 PFF #227 Isaiah Davis - HB South Dakota State Rating: 94.9 https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-profiles-top-200-draft-prospects

The one most intriguing to me is the Yale (OT?) kid. With him being Ivy League theres no doubt he’s not on anyone else’s radar but for some reason he strikes me as a ‘Poles’ pick. And that he was on the list early on is also telling.

Was looking at the Top 30 invitee list from last year to see any trends. Found they invited 20 players that played either Oline or Dline (if you count Edge Players). Of that 11 were Offense and 9 were Defense. That group included Jaylon Carter (Dline Georgia), Tyree Wilson (Edge-Texas Tech), Paris Johnson (Oline -OSU), Broderick Jones (OT- Georgia), Jervon Dexter (DT - Florida) and Darnell Wright (OT-Tennessee). There were three(?) invitees that were defensive backfield (to include Tyrique Stevenson - Safety Miami) and four WRs to include Tyler Scott (WR-Cincinnati). Another interesting nugget is evidently they can invite another five "local" players. Of that group they invited QB prospect Aiden O'Connell from Purdue (he ended up on the Raiders if I recall). NFL draft: Bears hosted these prospects for Top 30, local visits (usatoday.com)