Addressing the QB, Bears top priority

[ASHKUM BEAR]

This is the elephant in the room. The Bears have to get serious on this issue and find a solution this spring. Word on the street is this QB class is not appealing since the choices are not blue chip products. The current blue chip list contains Myles Garrett, Jonathon Allen, Jamal Adams, and Malik Hooker. The Bears hold the 3rd pick and have a token to take a potential probowl player. Quarterback is the most important position in the league and desperation will drive these prospects higher than there graded value. As a young GM, Pace will have to make a very difficult decision and it will be held against him the rest of his career, good or bad. He will either reach for the need or possibly miss out by sticking to BPA. Below are the prospects.

 

Mitch Trubisky QB NC - 6'3" 220

69% 3748 yds 30 td 6 int 3 rush td

Trubisky is accurate throwing the ball and doesn't make many bad decisions throwing picks. He has decent athletism and can move in the pocket or take off and run. He does not have much experience to go off of, so we are basically going off of one year. I look at completion percentage and td/int ratio as a guide and he tops the list. Once the combine wraps up, intelligence and character will make an impact on his grade. He will be drafted top 10 because of need.

 

DeShone Kizer ND -6'4" 230

59% 2925yds 26td 9int 7 rush td

Kizer has the physical skill set to be a starting QB. He has great vision seeing the whole field and making decisions. His arm strength is good and accuracy to place the ball in tight windows or put touch on his passes when needed. His will have some character concerns in terms of leading since ND failed to put it together, but following ND I seen it more on coaching and surrounding talent. It may be a blessing because his price might be undervalued. He will still get drafted round 1.

 

DeShaun Watson Clem - 6'2" 205

67% 4593 41td 17int 9 rush td

Watson will be considered because of his high character and leadership. His NC game alone sprung him into high considerations, but he has a more up hill battle than others. His athleticism is off the charts but will not be as important in the NFL as in college and his size will come in question. He has shown great accuracy and decision making but it is not consistant. Arm strength is decent but he will have a lot of learning to do to become a NFL QB. His character says he has the work ethic to do it. I think he will be a late 1st rounder or high second.

 

Patrick Mahomes QB Texas Tech - 6'3" 220

66% 5052yds 41tds 10int 12 rush td

Mahomes is the most intriguing prospect. His numbers alone grab your attention. He has great size and athleticism. Arm strength is good and quick delivery. Decision making will need work as well as adapting to the NFL system, but his father played MLB so he has been around the professional athlete to know the work needed. Some team may consider him round one off of his intangibles, otherwise round 2 is were I see him.

 

Davis Webb QB Cal -6'4" 230

62% 4295yds 37td 12 int

Davis gets into the mix since he has the skills to start. He will also need to adjust to the NFL since he came from a gimmick college spread, but in time he should get there. He will get looked at somewhere in round 2 or 3 and a team that has a QB at the end of a career will take a shot with him.

 

One of these will be wearing Blue and Orange in April, unless a bizarre trade happens for Garappolo or McCarren, which would cost picks and extra cap space. How Pace gets his QB will take some craft or that blue chip token or luck his target makes it to pick 36.

[Pixote]

I do not see the "top 3" being there in round two........

 

I do not want to "reach" for a player......

 

Unless we are able to trade back in round 1 or one of the top three slides to round 2 that leaves:

 

Mahomes or Webb

 

I like Webb over Mahomes.

 

I cannot say I am excited about that but from the options given on the poll that would be my vote.

[Connorbear]

Watson in the late first round or early 2nd. Make a trade to make it happen.

 

Peace

[Stinger226]

Watson in the late first round or early 2nd. Make a trade to make it happen.

 

Peace

I think the top 3 QBs go in the top 15, unfortunately none are rated better than a late first rounder, and that may be a reach.

No matter how much we need a QB and have rose colored glasses, this is not a good QB year for drafting.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I think the top 3 QBs go in the top 15, unfortunately none are rated better than a late first rounder, and that may be a reach.

No matter how much we need a QB and have rose colored glasses, this is not a good QB year for drafting.

It is not a good year to hold the 3rd pick while having a desperate need for a QB. I like some qualities with the top 4 but do not like the idea of over drafting when a blue chip player can come in right away and make a difference. What price do they give to trade back into the first? I think a 4th may get us around 26.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

One thing to consider is that neither Wentz or Prescott were rated very high going this late into the offseason last year. Yet Prescott proved he was probably rated higher than the 4th round he was picked in. And although not earth shattering, Wentz looked legit as the #2 overall. Just goes to show that you might not be able to nail down where these guys rate overall.

 

For the record, I'm still a Watson guy. He's got more to offer than just field performance. Intangibles I believe they call 'em.

[adam]

Of the 1st round QB's drafted in the last 10 years, only 5 out of 26 have a winning record, and only 3 are legit Franchise QBs (Ryan, Flacco, Newton):

 

 

The last few years have really not provided that much.

[AZ54]

Of the 1st round QB's drafted in the last 10 years, only 5 out of 26 have a winning record, and only 3 are legit Franchise QBs (Ryan, Flacco, Newton):

 

 

The last few years have really not provided that much.

 

Most in the NFL consider Luck a franchise QB.

 

Tannehill has been alright but is not franchise level. Let's see what another season with Gase does for him. He also had the most uphill battle coming from very little experience in college.

 

Stafford I think is a good QB.

 

Seems like Cam Newton managed to win an NFL MVP award and take his team to the Super Bowl.

 

Jameis Winston, Wentz, and Mariota have all shown enough promise to warrant their draft selection. It takes years to mature into the QB position in the NFL.

 

Bortles hasn't been a failure yet.

 

 

When drafting a QB you will most likely not get the "Pro Bowl" value of a player from another position but QB is different. If you don't have at least an average one you don't win at all. That's why an average QB like Andy Dalton makes $15mil/yr and All Pro "franchise" safety like Eric Berry will make $10mil. Even the top "franchise" Pro Bowl Left Tackles are making $12-13mil/yr.

 

All I'm saying is value of the QB position cannot be correlated to value of other positions. IMO that means finding a good starting QB with a 1st Rd pick is comparable to finding a Pro Bowl player at another position with your 1st Rd pick. A couple other positions have a higher success rate than 1st RD QBs, but some don't. There are two other positions I'd take ahead of an average starting QB: An elite LT, or an elite pass rusher. We all know Von Miller won that Super Bowl not an average performing QB named Peyton Manning. Any other position, even Pro Bowl caliber talent, I know I can find in first round picks in years to come.

 

Here's the biggest problem with QBs. The number of people who can successfully do this job in the NFL is very small. Compare that to the number of people who can play DT, LB, WR, etc. well and it becomes clear where you odds of success lie. In any draft history you look at it will always be easy to find a Pro Bowl players at other position who were drafted behind a 1st Rd QB.

 

----

 

This study is fairly well done. I just skimmed through some of it but most of the metrics used to evaluate success were good. QBs have a higher success rate in Rd 1-2 versus Rd 3-7. RB and WRs have a higher success rate in Rd 3-7 versus Rd 1-2.

 

Fall 2013

Success or Bust? An Analysis of Dra Position and NFL Success

Connor King

St. John Fisher College

http://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent....sport_undergrad

 

"...the results show that when drafting quarterbacks in the first and second round, NFL franchises get the majority of the selections right and do not take major risks when selecting quarterbacks."

 

 

"This means that in the data’s sample size, running backs and wide receivers that were drafted in the late rounds of the NFL draft ended up being more successful than the first and second round players from each respective draft year."

 

------

 

If there is a good starting QB to be found in this draft we need to draft him even at #3. I think Trubisky can be that QB.

 

[adam]

Most in the NFL consider Luck a franchise QB.

 

Tannehill has been alright but is not franchise level. Let's see what another season with Gase does for him. He also had the most uphill battle coming from very little experience in college.

 

Stafford I think is a good QB.

 

Seems like Cam Newton managed to win an NFL MVP award and take his team to the Super Bowl.

 

Jameis Winston, Wentz, and Mariota have all shown enough promise to warrant their draft selection. It takes years to mature into the QB position in the NFL.

 

Bortles hasn't been a failure yet.

I will give you Luck, I glossed over him on the table. That is still 4 out of 26 considered Franchise QB's. Would you want any of the others, and do you think any of the other guys will actually lead their team to a Super Bowl?

 

Tannehill has shown who he is and I don't know if he will get much better than what he has shown.

 

To me, Stafford has always been overrated. When you spend most of your career just flinging the ball up in the vicinity of Megatron, then you are going to have good numbers. He has also never won a playoff game.

 

I included Cam in the 3.

 

I think it is still too early for Winston, Wentz, or Mariota.

 

Bortles is mediocre at best and was arguably the worst full-time starter in the league last year. He has the same amount of turnovers (69) as he has TD passes and a lifetime QB rating of 79.6, I'll pass.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Of the 1st round QB's drafted in the last 10 years, only 5 out of 26 have a winning record, and only 3 are legit Franchise QBs (Ryan, Flacco, Newton):

 

 

The last few years have really not provided that much.

Andrew Luck is a franchise QB. That said, outside of nitpicking on that, that list was absolutely interesting and insightful.

[adam]

Andrew Luck is a franchise QB. That said, outside of nitpicking on that, that list was absolutely interesting and insightful.

Yeah, just missed him when I was totaling (not like there were a lot). RG3 distracted me.

 

How about 2 All-Pro votes (total) and 7 of 26 QBs made Pro Bowl (which includes RG3 and excludes Flacco).

[AZ54]

I will give you Luck, I glossed over him on the table. That is still 4 out of 26 considered Franchise QB's. Would you want any of the others, and do you think any of the other guys will actually lead their team to a Super Bowl?

 

Tannehill has shown who he is and I don't know if he will get much better than what he has shown.

 

To me, Stafford has always been overrated. When you spend most of your career just flinging the ball up in the vicinity of Megatron, then you are going to have good numbers. He has also never won a playoff game.

 

I included Cam in the 3.

 

I think it is still too early for Winston, Wentz, or Mariota.

 

Bortles is mediocre at best and was arguably the worst full-time starter in the league last year. He has the same amount of turnovers (69) as he has TD passes and a lifetime QB rating of 79.6, I'll pass.

 

I don't disagree with the premise it is extremely hard to find a franchise QB.

[Stinger226]

I don't disagree with the premise it is extremely hard to find a franchise QB.

I was listening to the SCORE this morning and they made a good point.

The third player in the draft needs to be a blue chip start right away, future all pro type of player.

None of the Qbs in this draft are day one starters, unless they have a desperate situation.

So one caller made a suggestion that made sense.

KC is up against the cap and want to resign Berry and Poe. Nick Foles is set to make 6.7 mil just year so he will be cut.

Sign Foles and then draft a QB prospect in the 4th like a Davis Webb or Peterman, or Kaaya, who ever they like and might be there.

Foles had a very good year in 2013 with a good supporting cast.

 

2013 PHI 13 10 203 317 2,891 9.1 27 2 28 173 119.2 57 221 3.9 3 4 2

 

He may not be a top 10 QB at the tender age of 28 but if he ends up somewhere around 15 to 20, he could be a good bridge to develop a QB prospect out of the draft.

 

Another thing we should keep in mind, we still have Connor Shaw

 

2010 South Carolina 23 33 69.7% 223 6.8 1 2 124.3 32 165 5.2 0

2011 South Carolina 123 188 65.4% 1,448 7.7 14 6 148.3 135 525 3.9 8

2012 South Carolina 154 228 67.5% 1,956 8.6 17 7 158.1 131 435 3.3 3

2013 South Carolina 180 284 63.4% 2,447 8.6 24 1 162.9 154 567 3.7 6

Career 480 733 65.5% 6,074 8.3 56 16 155.9 452 1,683 3.7 17

 

 

He was a decent prospect coming out of college.

He may be our developmental QB of the future already on our roster.

 

So to answer our QB problem.

 

Sign Foles

draft a QB, lets say Peterman

have Connor Shaw be our backup.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I was listening to the SCORE this morning and they made a good point.

The third player in the draft needs to be a blue chip start right away, future all pro type of player.

None of the Qbs in this draft are day one starters, unless they have a desperate situation.

So one caller made a suggestion that made sense.

KC is up against the cap and want to resign Berry and Poe. Nick Foles is set to make 6.7 mil just year so he will be cut.

Sign Foles and then draft a QB prospect in the 4th like a Davis Webb or Peterman, or Kaaya, who ever they like and might be there.

Foles had a very good year in 2013 with a good supporting cast.

 

2013 PHI 13 10 203 317 2,891 9.1 27 2 28 173 119.2 57 221 3.9 3 4 2

 

He may not be a top 10 QB at the tender age of 28 but if he ends up somewhere around 15 to 20, he could be a good bridge to develop a QB prospect out of the draft.

 

Another thing we should keep in mind, we still have Connor Shaw

 

2010 South Carolina 23 33 69.7% 223 6.8 1 2 124.3 32 165 5.2 0

2011 South Carolina 123 188 65.4% 1,448 7.7 14 6 148.3 135 525 3.9 8

2012 South Carolina 154 228 67.5% 1,956 8.6 17 7 158.1 131 435 3.3 3

2013 South Carolina 180 284 63.4% 2,447 8.6 24 1 162.9 154 567 3.7 6

Career 480 733 65.5% 6,074 8.3 56 16 155.9 452 1,683 3.7 17

 

 

He was a decent prospect coming out of college.

He may be our developmental QB of the future already on our roster.

 

So to answer our QB problem.

 

Sign Foles

draft a QB, lets say Peterman

have Connor Shaw be our backup.

 

Not for nothing but according to the article below, of the current FA QBs, the Bears have two of the top three already on their roster. Not sure why signing someone like Foles would be a good move.

 

Instead of bringing in a Foles or Garrapolo; re-sign Hoyer and Barkley to 1 year "prove it" deals then have them compete with Shaw and drafted QB.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-2017-f...agency-tracker/

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Adam Schefter has tweeted: Chicago Bears have actively started seeking a trade partner for quarterback Jay Cutler, per @JeffDarlington.

 

The Bears have put an ad out on www.letgo.com.....Jay Cutler is for sale. Hopefully some team will see value and make an offer.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Adam Schefter has tweeted: Chicago Bears have actively started seeking a trade partner for quarterback Jay Cutler, per @JeffDarlington.

 

The Bears have put an ad out on www.letgo.com.....Jay Cutler is for sale. Hopefully some team will see value and make an offer.

 

Saw something where this has been the case since about mid-January. If you believe earlier reports, this isn't the first time he's been on the market since Pace and Co. have been in town. Jay hasn't done much in the stat department to really help himself and now is coming off two injuries last year. The most recent being a shoulder injury with surgery(?). I won't be surprised if the Bears don't end up releasing him.

[jason]

Not for nothing but according to the article below, of the current FA QBs, the Bears have two of the top three already on their roster. Not sure why signing someone like Foles would be a good move.

 

Instead of bringing in a Foles or Garrapolo; re-sign Hoyer and Barkley to 1 year "prove it" deals then have them compete with Shaw and drafted QB.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-2017-f...agency-tracker/

 

Love this idea. Exactly what I was thinking. Why sign some scrub for big bucks when he is likely to have similar production to Hoyer? I want them to go defense in the first three rounds, then spend one of the fourth round picks on a QB.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Love this idea. Exactly what I was thinking. Why sign some scrub for big bucks when he is likely to have similar production to Hoyer? I want them to go defense in the first three rounds, then spend one of the fourth round picks on a QB.

QB will be taken between 3 or 36 and more likely 3. What do you think they will do with 50-70 million in a couple weeks? They will build up the D and free up the draft to build around a QB. That is how I see it, wrong a lot, but looks that way to me.

[jason]

QB will be taken between 3 or 36 and more likely 3. What do you think they will do with 50-70 million in a couple weeks? They will build up the D and free up the draft to build around a QB. That is how I see it, wrong a lot, but looks that way to me.

 

You're probably right, but my dream scenario is they mostly address offense with all that money. I think the defense has the chance to turn into a young, dominating defense with just one or two more pieces. Add to that the fact that none of the draftable QBs are sure things, and there is currently a sure thing available.

 

I'd love to see something like the following done with that money:

Kirk Cousins, QB - $23M - Franchise QB issue resolved, team leader, allows draft flexibility (assuming no franchise tag)

Desean Jackson, WR - $7M - Provide the franchise QB with familiarity, and a deep threat

Matt Kalil, LT - $7M - Major upgrade at LT, pending a thorough physical examination

Riley Reiff, RT - $4M - Upgrade at RT, hoping he turns into the player we all thought he would be

Kyle Juszczyk, FB - $2M - Great lead blocker, good check-down option

Reggie Bush, RB - $1M - Got royally screwed last year, still a decent threat out of the backfield

 

Then the draft can be defense oriented.

1. Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama

2. Adoree Jackson, CB, USC

3. Budda Baker, FS, Washington (I think he slips because of Hooker, Adams, Peppers, Melifonwu, Evans all being bigger options.)

4. Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia

4. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan

5. Ben Boulware, ILB, Clemson

7. Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss

 

[Stinger226]

You're probably right, but my dream scenario is they mostly address offense with all that money. I think the defense has the chance to turn into a young, dominating defense with just one or two more pieces. Add to that the fact that none of the draftable QBs are sure things, and there is currently a sure thing available.

 

I'd love to see something like the following done with that money:

Kirk Cousins, QB - $23M - Franchise QB issue resolved, team leader, allows draft flexibility (assuming no franchise tag)

Desean Jackson, WR - $7M - Provide the franchise QB with familiarity, and a deep threat

Matt Kalil, LT - $7M - Major upgrade at LT, pending a thorough physical examination

Riley Reiff, RT - $4M - Upgrade at RT, hoping he turns into the player we all thought he would be

Kyle Juszczyk, FB - $2M - Great lead blocker, good check-down option

Reggie Bush, RB - $1M - Got royally screwed last year, still a decent threat out of the backfield

 

Then the draft can be defense oriented.

1. Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama

2. Adoree Jackson, CB, USC

3. Budda Baker, FS, Washington (I think he slips because of Hooker, Adams, Peppers, Melifonwu, Evans all being bigger options.)

4. Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia

4. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan

5. Ben Boulware, ILB, Clemson

7. Chad Kelly, QB, Ole Miss

I like the draft but they are not going to bring in Kalil, he was worse than Leno has played. Reiff was rated lower than Massie last year according to the stats from PFF. Bush is a never going to happen. We are going to go after younger players not older ones. Robert Woods instead of Jackson for an example.

I would have no problem paying Cousins.

 

 

[jason]

I like the draft but they are not going to bring in Kalil, he was worse than Leno has played. Reiff was rated lower than Massie last year according to the stats from PFF. Bust is a never going to happen. We are going to go after younger players not older ones. Robert Woods instead of Jackson for an example.

I would have no problem paying Cousins.

 

You realize Kalil was injured all year, right? I guess since he didn't play he was technically worse than Leno.

I don't believe in PFF's ratings, and even if Reiff actually did do worse than Massie, he's got a much higher ceiling.

Bush is just a throw in, like a free toaster. I still think he's capable of being that shifty guy out of the backfield. Put him on a team like NE and he wins comeback player of the year.

Jackson, Woods, meh, the differences are worth debating, but the Bears need a guy who can spread the defense, and Jackson does that well. His familiarity with Cousins is just a bonus.

[Stinger226]

You realize Kalil was injured all year, right? I guess since he didn't play he was technically worse than Leno.

I don't believe in PFF's ratings, and even if Reiff actually did do worse than Massie, he's got a much higher ceiling.

Bush is just a throw in, like a free toaster. I still think he's capable of being that shifty guy out of the backfield. Put him on a team like NE and he wins comeback player of the year.

Jackson, Woods, meh, the differences are worth debating, but the Bears need a guy who can spread the defense, and Jackson does that well. His familiarity with Cousins is just a bonus.

I know he was hurt last year, but the his previous season sucked.

Reiff has a higher upside but he will not be gotten for 4 mil a year.

Bush is still never going to happen. we will always go on the younger scale until were almost ready and then maybe a few older vet throw ins.

[killakrzydav]

I think it's a joke to not include Winston, Luck, or Stafford as franchise Qbs

[killakrzydav]

Jackson is likely the best in the league in what he does well which is take the top off nearly every play.

[adam]

I think it's a joke to not include Winston, Luck, or Stafford as franchise Qbs

Stafford is as much of a Franchise QB as Cutler is. No issues with Luck, but still too early to anoint Winston.