AZ54 Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-3...vations-week-13 Chicago Bears: On his 65 third-down attempts, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s average of 9.6 yards per attempt ranks second among 32 starting signal-callers, while his passer rating of 103.7 ranks fourth. Through 13 weeks, he’s the only starting quarterback to have not thrown an interception on any of his third-down pass attempts. ------------------- The sample size is more than big enough to be significant. Then there was this article published before the Bengals game... http://www.thetenyardline.com/2017/12/08/m...-on-third-down/ ------------------- Passing chart against Bengals https://twitter.com/Zack_Pearson/status/939...3530368/photo/1 ------------------- I'm still not sure Bears' fans understood what they witnessed Sun. At least for me it's not something that fits the norm for a Bears QB. On NFL Network the Bears received 1 highlight of Jordan Howard, and then they showed the final score. For comparison about 5min were spent highlighting Brett Hundley come from behind to beat the Browns, and to be fair he had a nice game as well. The information at the links above may define where Trubisky is headed and but they also tell a little about where he's been. It is surprising to see how well he has done on 3rd downs, among the best in the NFL. I watch all of our games and wouldn't have expected that to be true. Then that also begs the question (or blame as some would have it) for why don't we throw more often on first and second downs. On a 3rd down you either make it or you punt, meaning the sack doesn't matter. On 1st and 2nd downs sacks matter...a lot, and make that punt more likely. I think all we need to do is look at his sack percentage and how bad it's been until lately. We can blame receivers in part (some truth there), except those are the same receivers responsible for his 3rd down performance. So it comes back to Trubisky wasn't reading the defense and making quick enough decisions. Fox knew this he they stayed away from putting Trubisky behind the sticks as much as possible, hence all the run-run-pass. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-pct That's team sack percentage. If you look at Trubisky's stats he was at 10%. Some games 25%. In the last few games he's getting sacked around 6% per attempt. The wise man will tell me that it's really sacks per pass play not attempt but I'm not taking the time to add all the numbers for that. Just know that it means the Sack% per dropback is a bit lower than 6%. That rate puts Trubisky right in the middle of the league, in line with MVP candidates Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, and fits in with a host of other name QBs like Newton and Prescott. This means Trubisky is now operating in a more NFL-normal space and we can open up the offense more on 1st and 2nd downs. Add in his good performance on 3rd and long and taking an early sack isn't as much of a drive killer as it might have been earlier in the season. For a QB 3/4 of the way through his first season he's doing some good things. For those focused on "poor coaching" hindering him, I said that appeared to be the case 2 weeks ago after the Philly game. Now after seeing the last two games there is a marked improvement in his performance and that is starting to indicate otherwise. We need the last few data points to make a complete assessment but I don't think the NFL Network (and other media) will be skipping Trubisky's highlights for too much longer. For the first time he'll be seeing a team he's already played against. Should be a great measuring stick to see how far he's come along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-3...vations-week-13 Chicago Bears: On his 65 third-down attempts, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s average of 9.6 yards per attempt ranks second among 32 starting signal-callers, while his passer rating of 103.7 ranks fourth. Through 13 weeks, he’s the only starting quarterback to have not thrown an interception on any of his third-down pass attempts. ------------------- The sample size is more than big enough to be significant. Then there was this article published before the Bengals game... http://www.thetenyardline.com/2017/12/08/m...-on-third-down/ ------------------- Passing chart against Bengals https://twitter.com/Zack_Pearson/status/939...3530368/photo/1 ------------------- I'm still not sure Bears' fans understood what they witnessed Sun. At least for me it's not something that fits the norm for a Bears QB. On NFL Network the Bears received 1 highlight of Jordan Howard, and then they showed the final score. For comparison about 5min were spent highlighting Brett Hundley come from behind to beat the Browns, and to be fair he had a nice game as well. The information at the links above may define where Trubisky is headed and but they also tell a little about where he's been. It is surprising to see how well he has done on 3rd downs, among the best in the NFL. I watch all of our games and wouldn't have expected that to be true. Then that also begs the question (or blame as some would have it) for why don't we throw more often on first and second downs. On a 3rd down you either make it or you punt, meaning the sack doesn't matter. On 1st and 2nd downs sacks matter...a lot, and make that punt more likely. I think all we need to do is look at his sack percentage and how bad it's been until lately. We can blame receivers in part (some truth there), except those are the same receivers responsible for his 3rd down performance. So it comes back to Trubisky wasn't reading the defense and making quick enough decisions. Fox knew this he they stayed away from putting Trubisky behind the sticks as much as possible, hence all the run-run-pass. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-pct That's team sack percentage. If you look at Trubisky's stats he was at 10%. Some games 25%. In the last few games he's getting sacked around 6% per attempt. The wise man will tell me that it's really sacks per pass play not attempt but I'm not taking the time to add all the numbers for that. Just know that it means the Sack% per dropback is a bit lower than 6%. That rate puts Trubisky right in the middle of the league, in line with MVP candidates Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, and fits in with a host of other name QBs like Newton and Prescott. This means Trubisky is now operating in a more NFL-normal space and we can open up the offense more on 1st and 2nd downs. Add in his good performance on 3rd and long and taking an early sack isn't as much of a drive killer as it might have been earlier in the season. For a QB 3/4 of the way through his first season he's doing some good things. For those focused on "poor coaching" hindering him, I said that appeared to be the case 2 weeks ago after the Philly game. Now after seeing the last two games there is a marked improvement in his performance and that is starting to indicate otherwise. We need the last few data points to make a complete assessment but I don't think the NFL Network (and other media) will be skipping Trubisky's highlights for too much longer. For the first time he'll be seeing a team he's already played against. Should be a great measuring stick to see how far he's come along. That's one of the best posts in the history of this board. I hadn't seen any of those links. Thanks! Also, Trubisky's accuracy, which is the one thing that has given me hope about this pick since the beginning, is starting to bear fruit. I really hope it continues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 His 3rd downs have given me a lot of hope. Especially his accuracy the past 2 games. Probably I've witnessed this season is that we are paying behind the sticks so much with alot of things going wrong in 1st and 2nd leaving trubisky and the offense in 3rd and a mile so when trubisky completes a pass for 10 or 15 it goes for naught because it's 3rd and 20. It does feel that trubisky is getting more and more comfortable with the offense and his receivers and there seems to be a special relationship between trubisky and whitehair as the season has progressed. Whitehair isn't making nearly as many mistakes now so I definitely think it's time to open things up and play a little more outside the box like in Cincy. That defense had no clue what we were going to do which helped open up the receivers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan2000 Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 His 3rd downs have given me a lot of hope. Especially his accuracy the past 2 games. Probably I've witnessed this season is that we are paying behind the sticks so much with alot of things going wrong in 1st and 2nd leaving trubisky and the offense in 3rd and a mile so when trubisky completes a pass for 10 or 15 it goes for naught because it's 3rd and 20. It does feel that trubisky is getting more and more comfortable with the offense and his receivers and there seems to be a special relationship between trubisky and whitehair as the season has progressed. Whitehair isn't making nearly as many mistakes now so I definitely think it's time to open things up and play a little more outside the box like in Cincy. That defense had no clue what we were going to do which helped open up the receivers That's the thing that comes to mind about throwing for 10 yards or so on 3rd down when it's 3rd and longer and we're not converting. Converting third downs is far more important. Far to often on 3rd down our WR's routes come short of the sticks. Deafness will give that to you all day and come up to make the stop to force the punt/FG. But the positive of this is his accuracy has been good especially lately. If we can cut out the negatives on the earlier downs that keep putting us in third and long. The offense needs to get better at staying on schedule, giving us more 3rd and manageable. I like the links and it's a good read, there is hope for better days. Successful and consistent offenses don't put themselves in holes regularly. We just aren't good enough to constantly overcome negative plays on 1st and 2nd down. Just proof we need a better more disciplined line, and better weapons. It'll be interesting to see in these last games to see if our offense is able to build on last weeks success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 That's the thing that comes to mind about throwing for 10 yards or so on 3rd down when it's 3rd and longer and we're not converting. Converting third downs is far more important. Far to often on 3rd down our WR's routes come short of the sticks. Deafness will give that to you all day and come up to make the stop to force the punt/FG. But the positive of this is his accuracy has been good especially lately. If we can cut out the negatives on the earlier downs that keep putting us in third and long. The offense needs to get better at staying on schedule, giving us more 3rd and manageable. I like the links and it's a good read, there is hope for better days. Successful and consistent offenses don't put themselves in holes regularly. We just aren't good enough to constantly overcome negative plays on 1st and 2nd down. Just proof we need a better more disciplined line, and better weapons. It'll be interesting to see in these last games to see if our offense is able to build on last weeks success. If we can see something similar next week but maybe the offense cuts down on the penalties. I think I read that the oline in particular had 4 or 5 penalties alone last week. To me that was biggest problem. But does seem like there is hope at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Is it inappropriate to say, F&^K YEAH! Thank you for sharing all that! https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-3...vations-week-13 Chicago Bears: On his 65 third-down attempts, quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s average of 9.6 yards per attempt ranks second among 32 starting signal-callers, while his passer rating of 103.7 ranks fourth. Through 13 weeks, he’s the only starting quarterback to have not thrown an interception on any of his third-down pass attempts. ------------------- The sample size is more than big enough to be significant. Then there was this article published before the Bengals game... http://www.thetenyardline.com/2017/12/08/m...-on-third-down/ ------------------- Passing chart against Bengals https://twitter.com/Zack_Pearson/status/939...3530368/photo/1 ------------------- I'm still not sure Bears' fans understood what they witnessed Sun. At least for me it's not something that fits the norm for a Bears QB. On NFL Network the Bears received 1 highlight of Jordan Howard, and then they showed the final score. For comparison about 5min were spent highlighting Brett Hundley come from behind to beat the Browns, and to be fair he had a nice game as well. The information at the links above may define where Trubisky is headed and but they also tell a little about where he's been. It is surprising to see how well he has done on 3rd downs, among the best in the NFL. I watch all of our games and wouldn't have expected that to be true. Then that also begs the question (or blame as some would have it) for why don't we throw more often on first and second downs. On a 3rd down you either make it or you punt, meaning the sack doesn't matter. On 1st and 2nd downs sacks matter...a lot, and make that punt more likely. I think all we need to do is look at his sack percentage and how bad it's been until lately. We can blame receivers in part (some truth there), except those are the same receivers responsible for his 3rd down performance. So it comes back to Trubisky wasn't reading the defense and making quick enough decisions. Fox knew this he they stayed away from putting Trubisky behind the sticks as much as possible, hence all the run-run-pass. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/qb-sacked-pct That's team sack percentage. If you look at Trubisky's stats he was at 10%. Some games 25%. In the last few games he's getting sacked around 6% per attempt. The wise man will tell me that it's really sacks per pass play not attempt but I'm not taking the time to add all the numbers for that. Just know that it means the Sack% per dropback is a bit lower than 6%. That rate puts Trubisky right in the middle of the league, in line with MVP candidates Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, and fits in with a host of other name QBs like Newton and Prescott. This means Trubisky is now operating in a more NFL-normal space and we can open up the offense more on 1st and 2nd downs. Add in his good performance on 3rd and long and taking an early sack isn't as much of a drive killer as it might have been earlier in the season. For a QB 3/4 of the way through his first season he's doing some good things. For those focused on "poor coaching" hindering him, I said that appeared to be the case 2 weeks ago after the Philly game. Now after seeing the last two games there is a marked improvement in his performance and that is starting to indicate otherwise. We need the last few data points to make a complete assessment but I don't think the NFL Network (and other media) will be skipping Trubisky's highlights for too much longer. For the first time he'll be seeing a team he's already played against. Should be a great measuring stick to see how far he's come along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted December 13, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Robert Zeglinski on WindyCityGridiron broke down some of Trubisky's plays against the Bengals. While he does a good job there are two that matter the most to me. https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2017/12/1...f-play-nfl-2017 On the 3rd play he shows watch Shaheen block the DE pushing him to the inside a bit. He pushes him far enough inside to allow room for Trubisky to get outside. He also completely sells his role in the play and gets himself wide open as you'll see the LBs drop way back. We end up with an easy 8yd gain. Excellent job by Shaheen and he looks like a veteran in how well he executes the play. Trubisky sees it all unfold early in the play and just waits for Shaheen to slide out. The last play he shows the Bengals bring a CB blitz off the edge and the Oline misses the block. In this case Cincy lines up with 7 players in a zone blitz situation and Trubisky does not know who is coming and who is dropping. Watch Trubisky's head as he quickly turns left and sees the CB, he then rolls out of the pocket to buy time toward where the defenders dropped back into coverage. That's smart, it's the soft spot of the pressure. This was not a designed rollout, the outcome of the play is entirely on Trubisky. In the past he and the Oline have missed CB blitzes like this several times leading to sacks and fumbles. I'm certain their coaches saw that on tape and expected a sack on this play. Instead they gave up 20 yards. These are subtle things that aren't always apparent at first but both rookies are showing some clear growth in their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 Thanks for pointing those out. It's easy to forget some details during the game. Showing those in the light makes it even more impressive. Robert Zeglinski on WindyCityGridiron broke down some of Trubisky's plays against the Bengals. While he does a good job there are two that matter the most to me. https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2017/12/1...f-play-nfl-2017 On the 3rd play he shows watch Shaheen block the DE pushing him to the inside a bit. He pushes him far enough inside to allow room for Trubisky to get outside. He also completely sells his role in the play and gets himself wide open as you'll see the LBs drop way back. We end up with an easy 8yd gain. Excellent job by Shaheen and he looks like a veteran in how well he executes the play. Trubisky sees it all unfold early in the play and just waits for Shaheen to slide out. The last play he shows the Bengals bring a CB blitz off the edge and the Oline misses the block. In this case Cincy lines up with 7 players in a zone blitz situation and Trubisky does not know who is coming and who is dropping. Watch Trubisky's head as he quickly turns left and sees the CB, he then rolls out of the pocket to buy time toward where the defenders dropped back into coverage. That's smart, it's the soft spot of the pressure. This was not a designed rollout, the outcome of the play is entirely on Trubisky. In the past he and the Oline have missed CB blitzes like this several times leading to sacks and fumbles. I'm certain their coaches saw that on tape and expected a sack on this play. Instead they gave up 20 yards. These are subtle things that aren't always apparent at first but both rookies are showing some clear growth in their games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I would be interested to know what his conversion rate is on his 3rd down passing. (VS the rest of the league) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted December 13, 2017 Report Share Posted December 13, 2017 I would be interested to know what his conversion rate is on his 3rd down passing. (VS the rest of the league) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I would be interested to know what his conversion rate is on his 3rd down passing. (VS the rest of the league) In terms of 3rd down conversions on passing attempts, he is 25th in NFL with 38.4% (28/73). However, 40 of those attempts were 3rd & 8 or longer. In those attempts, he completed 30/40 (75%) for 8.9 Y/A and 0 INTs. In those 40 (considered 3rd and Long), he converted 27.5% for 1st Downs (19th in NFL). For 3rd and medium (3-7yds), he is 9th (51.9%). On a side note, the Bears are 9th in drops with 18. Trubisky is 9th in INT% at 1.8%. *****[stats available here: http://hosted.stats.com/fb/index.asp]***** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 In terms of 3rd down conversions on passing attempts, he is 25th in NFL with 38.4% (28/73). However, 40 of those attempts were 3rd & 8 or longer. In those attempts, he completed 30/40 (75%) for 8.9 Y/A and 0 INTs. In those 40 (considered 3rd and Long), he converted 27.5% for 1st Downs (19th in NFL). For 3rd and medium (3-7yds), he is 9th (51.9%). On a side note, the Bears are 9th in drops with 18. Trubisky is 9th in INT% at 1.8%. *****[stats available here: http://hosted.stats.com/fb/index.asp]***** Awesome, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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