nfoligno

You sure Haynesworth signe an exclusive tag? I don't think that is used very often. As good as players are, usually a team would be happy to take two 1st round picks for a player they are likely to lose soon anyway. Payton Manning is one of the only players I can think of off the top of my head that was tagged and would have made sense to be tagged exlusive. It costs more money to tag a player at the exclusive level, and since it is so unlikely a team would give up two #1s, there is little reason to spend the extra. Even Haynesworth, would another team really give up two #1s for him? I doubt that.

Maybe. While I am not going to argue Harris is elite when it comes to DTs, I would argue he needs a healthy 16 game season this year. If he has another season hindered or shorted by injury, I am not sure he will get the mega-payday he expects. FA is always a gamble, but when you are talking about giving up $30m guaranteed, health of the player should not be a big concern. If he has another productive year, and stays healthy, I agree he will be the top paid DT in the league. Top defensive player, I am not so sure. But if he doesn't stay healthy, I think his contract will drop quite a bit.

Yes, we would get picks. If we franchise a player, and another team signs that player, we would actually be owed two 1st round picks. That is NOT going to happen, but the other option is to tag him and then trade him for picks. But we do get compensation if another team steals a franchised player. If you transition tag Berrian, and he signs w/ another team, then we would not be due any picks. W/ the transition tag, we have the right to match and offer made, but get no compensation (except comp picks next year) for losing him.

Okay, I am going to say upfront. This is from PFT, but while there are some haters out there, PFT is a pretty good source for rumors, and an excellent source (IMHO) for number crunching and legal analysis. Anyway, here is their list for all teams cap space. We are shown to have about $20m in cap space, which jives w/ LT2, but does not reflect the recent moves, so I would put another $10m in space on top of that. Three teams (Carolina, Wash and Indy) are over the cap and will have to restructure and/or make cuts just to be under, much less make moves. CURRENT 2008 CAP NUMBERS PROJECTED PER-TEAM CAP: $116,000,000 Arizona Cardinals $109,500,000 Atlanta Falcons $111,900,000 Baltimore Ravens $109,800,000 Buffalo Bills $89,100,000 Carolina Panthers $120,900,000 Chicago Bears $96,000,000 Cincinnati Bengals $92,000,000 Cleveland Browns $99,400,000 Dallas Cowboys $103,300,000 Denver Broncos $104,800,000 Detroit Lions $98,100,000 Green Bay Packers $100,900,000 Houston Texans $96,400,000 Indianapolis Colts $125,800,000 Jacksonville Jaguars $89,100,000 Kansas City Chiefs $106,200,000 Miami Dolphins $85,000,000 Minnesota Vikings $101,200,000 New England Patriots $112,900,000 New Orleans Saints $89,300,000 New York Giants $95,100,000 New York Jets $98,800,000 Oakland Raiders $95,700,000 Philadelphia Eagles $104,000,000 Pittsburgh Steelers $99,300,000 San Diego Chargers $94,600,000 San Francisco 49ers $86,700,000 Seattle Seahawks $103,100,000 St. Louis Rams $112,600,000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $97,200,000 Tennessee Titans $79,400,000 Washington Redskins $123,500,000

Absolutely that was awful. At the same time, I simply question the original mentality of the pick itself. Lets say Benson didn't get injured last year. When was Wolfe supposed to get reps? Many say he is a change of pace, but that is exactly how AP was used. AP is a better and more proven receiver. Also, Wolfe needs a ton of work in blocking. So was he likely to get much PT as a 3rd down back? I doubt it. What I believe is, Wolfe was drafted to support Hester as much as RB. I remember a lot of talk about Wolfe as a return man. After the SB, I believe the staff was looking for players that could be used for the shorter field on returns. Problem was, Wolfe really struggled in the return game in camp, and thus others moved ahead of him. I think we used Davis, RMJ and one or two others to field those short kickoffs. IMHO, that was a big reason we drafted Wolfe, but he didn't step up to take that role. So we were left w/ Wolfe as our 3rd RB. I'm sorry, but I just didn't see the role. When was Wolfe supposed to be on the field? No argument that Turner was an idiot in how Wolfe was used. My point was, I never agreed w/ the reason to draft him in the first place.

Yea. I think the quality of the Trib writing has simply gone so downhill. I mean, the article really makes it out like we are in a new youth movement, yet I just do not see it that way. Tait is older. Has he been cut? No, because he didn't deserve it like the others. I thought it was also a failure on the Tribs part to focus more on the money and bonuses due, which had a big affect on the moves, as well as timing. We were approaching the time to give additional bonuses to the player, thus why they got their walking papers now, as opposed to players like Brown, Arch and RMJ. I don't think we are in a youth movement either. I think it was a simple matter of getting rid of three players who sucked last year and were due a roster bonus in early March. The fact that the three players were all 30 or older had little to nothing to do w/ their release. Their play on the field combined w/ finances had everything to do w/ it.

One issue I have w/ Anderson. As a rookie, I often commented how he would show so many different moves. He did NOT simply rush outside using speed. Numerous times I saw him use speed, or the threat of his speed, to get OTs off balance, only to then use a swim move to cut to the inside. I remember Dent even talking about how Anderson looked like a veteran w/ such a repatoir (sp?) of moves. Last year, Anderson rushed outside everydown I ever watched. I NEVER saw him make an inside move. Frankly, I am not sure I really saw Brown or Wale go to the inside either. It seemed like our "scheme" had our DEs rushing outside, w/ the plan being to force the QB up in the pocket, and then Harris/Walker to penetrate and clean up. I talked about this a bunch. That really makes me wonder if Anderson didn't simply play using his talent and ability as a rookie, but then as a 2nd year player, the staff took a greater hand in how he played. Further, didn't we have a new DL coach last year? Anyway, I just wonder if Anderson might not be more than a situational pass rusher, but further wonder if our staff held him (and our other DEs back) by not allowing them to do anything more than outside rush. Another example of this point is that we didn't stunt this past year. Even Idonije talked about that. Regarding why Brown would re-sign when the others wouldn't, part of that may have to do w/ Brown being under contract for two more seasons, and not being considered elite at his position. Berrian and Briggs were w/in a year of FA, and Harris is considered in the elite class, and the money is sooooo much more.

I don't know. While I do not want to tag him, I can see it. You mention why a team would sign Berrian when they can get Johnson or Stallworth, but (a) BJ is not a deep threat like Berrian, and ( while Stallworth is a deep threat, there is only one of him. Once he is signed, is there another deep threat on the market. Your right. We did tag Briggs last year, but as you have also pointed out, the situation was different. We really wanted to keep him as we thought we had a solid shot at the SB again. I am not sure the thinking this year is the same. We could tag Berrian for the sole purpose of trading him. W/ Briggs, partially because we really wanted to keep him, we place a very high value on him. We were looking for a top 15 pick, and some reports said we even asked for more. What if we tagged Berrian but only asked for a 2nd or 3rd round pick in compensation. That might be enough. Also, I would add that even if we tag him, it doesn't mean he would sign the tag offer right away. We very well could tag him, test the market, and then remove the tag if there are no takers.

I agree we need to wait and see. I do not agree that if we were going to sign him, we would have done it by now. Berrian would not be the first to over estimate his value, particularly considering his agent. Frankly, looking at what is in FA, if I were his agent, I would tell him to wait and see what offers he gets before signing w/ anyone. I think we still could be in play to re-sign him, but not before the market is set first. Remember Kreutz. If I recall correct, we let him hit FA, and after the market for his was set, we then came in and signed him. Sometimes both the player and team need to see what the market is before the deal can get done. I think signing Booker should be a no brainer. He would replace Moose. As for Stallworth, once again, I want to see what the market is for him, as well as Berrian.

Regarding Brant, didn't we sign him to the practice squad. Maybe not, but I thought he might have. As for how smart Hester is, there are simply too many ways to go w/ that one. Maybe he is book smart, but he smarts are limited to the classroom. Maybe Miami is a football program where players are allowed to basically cruise through. Wouldn't be the first program. I don't know, but I remember many knocks (or at least questions) regarding his football intelligence, and this was one thing pointed to when he was moved around as he didn't seem able to pickup a position. Like I said, I really don't know how smart he is or not. I believe Vince Young had a pretty good GPA at Texas, a major school (going back right now to get his degree) yet if you listen to him, he sure doesn't sound smart, and his wonderlick was pitiful.

I am not going to argue that, but when the rest of the draft class produces so little, I am not sure how much you can hang you hat on a guy simply because he did well on special teams.

Well, Alex Brown complained last year there weren't enough snaps to go around for 3 DEs. How do you think they will feel about 4. I don't see how you can really rotate 4 DEs. Players need enough snaps to get into a rhythm, and if they are constantly being pulled out of the game, it is only going to hurt us. Also, I don't buy the red shirt thing. At least not on draft day. That may be something later on, in camp, but on draft day, I just do not believe we were looking for red shirt potential players. I am not going to blast Wolfe for the stats he put up. My issue is this. We have Benson, who is not going anywhere, at least not this year. We have Peterson, who is a favorite of most. We also now have Wolfe. But we also are trying to add a RB. Who do you think goes. Sorry, but while many talk about how we can, we are not going to keep 4 RBs, which means if we add a RB, I have to think it is Wolfe that goes. And I don't blame Wolfe. I blame Angelo for drafting him. I never thought he was a good pick for us, and was drafted way early. While I am not going to argue these three players factor big in the grade, I also think some others can have an impact. If we cut RMJ, McBride has a chance to be our nickel, and could again be a starter if there is an injury. Payne I think might have a shot to start this year. If Payne and McBride step up, along w/ Olsen, it will help the grade too. I simply right now see little chance for many of last years picks moving up much on the depth chart.

Frankly, I have often asked in the past whether the problem is in our scouting, decisions on draft day, or our staff's ability to develop that talent. While there are some players I give Angelo a pass on because I think it is a problem w/ the staff (see Olsen), others I am not so quick to blame the staff, see Wolfe.

Regarding Harris, when it comes to signing any player early, I have always been of the opinion the player has to give up some of their demands if they want to get the deal done. Harris is due about $1m in base this year. If he wants his big payday early, he needs to come down on his demand. That goes for any player. The player is under contract for another year (sometimes more than a year for other players). If they want the team to shell out a new deal early, then they can't make demands on the team as if they were FAs. So if Harris is asking for $30m now, I would politely tell him to stuff it. If he is telling the team that while he "might" get $30m next year, he would accept $25m this year, I would talk. Frankly, I am not sure I would give him $25m, but it's the point of it.

Sure, it is still WAY early to give a true grade to a draft that took place only a year ago, but w/ so much draft talk, what the hell. 1st round, 31st pick - Olsen Most of us still believe this was a great pick. Someone just needs to explain that to Turner. 2nd round, 30th pick - Bazuin We had a high 2nd round pick, and traded down. We ended up taking Bazuin, Wolfe and Payne w/ those new picks. Bazuin does not look like a good pick at all. The injury aside, he is 4th on the depth chart w/ little room to move up. 3rd round, 30th pick - Wolfe I hated this pick than, and still do today. While many will argue, what does it say about our 3rd round RB that we are today still placing such a high need on RB. Don't talk about Benson, as that doesn't matter. Heck, if anything, Benson's failures only gave Wolfe more room. 3rd round, 31st pick - Okwo Still a lot to be seen, but has anyone heard Okso's name even mentioned as the replacement for Briggs? It doesn't even sound like he is in the running. 4th round, 31st pick - Beekman Man I was high on this pick, but w/ all the issues on the OL, it is telling that Beekman was never even given a look late in the year when we were totally out of it. Metcalf was tried (and failed) and then St. Clair was moved inside, as opposed to Beekman getting a look. 5th round, 30th pick - Payne Looked like a good pick, and the supposed reason we traded Harris, until he ended his rookie season w/ injury. What is it w/ our rookies and injuries? 5th round, 31st pick - Graham Showed a little, very little, late in the year. W/ the emergence of McBride, will we see him again w/o an injury to one of our other corners? 7th round, 11th pick - McBride Great pick. He showed a lot when given a chance. He may not be a stud, but for a 7th round pick, he has already shown more than expected value. 7th round, 31st pick - Brant I think he is still on the team, but the lack of any talk what-so-ever, combined w/ our heavy interest in upgrading our OT situation is telling. Also, like Beekman, was not even given a second thought late in the year when Miller was benched. Olsen can still help this draft, but how much else can we truly expect? Bazuin seems buried on the depth chart. Okwo looks like a backup. Wolfe has questionable value going forward. McBride looked solid, but we are set w/ our starters, and unless we dump RMJ (which I think will happen) McBride will move back down on the depth chart. Graham is even deeper. Beekman and Brant do not seem to have much future. Payne could equal Olsen as the most likely to make a jump.

I think it is a matter of percentages and situation. For example, look at Briggs. In Briggs, you have a player who believes he is going to get $20m or more in bonus money (and I stress the "or more" part). In addition to that, we were coming off the SB and felt we were a top candidate to return the following season. So when factoring the window w/ the difference between expected guaranteed money and actual in the guarantee, I think it made sense. For Berrian though, you are talking about giving a player something like 60% of the guaranteed money you would give him in a long term deal. In addition to that, while I have as much hope as any bear fan, or liklihood of the SB is less for next year than it was this past year, at least heading into the offseason. So I do not see it making sense to tag him. Another example where it may be justified is Harris. In Harris, you have a player likely to seek $30m in guaranteed money. The tag will be closer to $7m or so, just a little under 1/4 the sought after amount. In addition, you have a history of injuries to add to the mix and factor. So if we do not come to terms w/ Harris, I can see the justification to tag him next year, as opposed to simply giving him the long term deal he wants, or letting him walk for nothing.

This is exactly why I think Briggs wants to leave Chicago. As long as he plays next to Urlacher, many will question just how good he is. Whether you agree or disagree, I think it is a valid question. I am not saying he is definitely over-rated, but I think it is a legit question for most players paired w/ already proven all-pro talent. I might point to Wale as an example. When he was in Miami, and had Jason Taylor opposite him (not to mention a load of talent behind him) he was an unstoppable force, netting 15 sacks one season. Since coming to Chicago, he has been a good DE, but no where near the player seen in Miami. Maybe Briggs leaves Chicago and proves he is an all-pro, regardless who he plays next to. Maybe he is a player a defense can build around. Then again, maybe he is simply a good player who benefited from playing next to Urlacher. Time will tell, but I think it is a legit question, and further, think it is one reason (though money is the key) why he will leave Chicago.

That is the question. I have gone back and forth. On one hand, I do not want to tie up a ton of money into a player who I question will ever be a #1. On the other hand, can we really afford to lose him? So some talk about the tag, as have I at times, and I just got to thinking about the numbers. What sort of deal do we expect Berrian to seek? He turned down, I think, something in the $20m range w/ $8m guaranteed, which is about what we offered Randle El a couple years ago. So what is he looking at. Last year, I don't think there were any deals for WRs that Berrian would use. Stallworth signed basically a one year gimick deal. Moss, Welker and the rest didn't sign deals that I think Berrian would target either. I actually look back to 2006. In 2006, Randle El and Reggie Wayne were signed to new deals. Laugh if you want that Berrian would seek money similar to Wayne, but I think it is legit. That year, El signed w/ Wash on a 7yr/$30m deal w/ about $11.5 in bonus money ($10m SB and $1.5 roster bonus). Wayne re-signed w/ Indy on a 6yr/$40m deal w/ $13.5m SB. Fast forward to today. Many have talked about El as the comparison, but I think Berrian is considerably more proven today than El was when he signed w/ Washington. El's 4 seasons w/ Pitt averaged 40 catches for 503 yards and just under 2 scores. In none of those seasons did he have over 50 catches and hit the 600 yard mark (w/ 601) only once. Berrian had 51 and 77 catches the last two years, w/ 775 and 951 yards, plus 6 and 5 scores respectively. And he has done this in a far inferior offense than El had in Pitt. So I do not think El's contract is the base for Berrian today. Wayne was coming off a pair of 1,000+ seasons, and considered a far better WR than Berrian. If this were two years ago, I would not consider Wayne's contract a basis for Berrian, but it is not 2 years ago. Berrian has elevated his play, was the #1 WR for us last year, and the salary cap has risen. Berrian has said he believes he should be paid like a top 5 WR, and I think Wayne's deal is what he is looking at. So are we willing to give him 6yr/$40m w/ $13.5 SB? Heck, I can see him seeking an even greater SB, though the base may be similar. Counter that w/ the $8m or whatever it will cost to tag him. If we tag him, we avoid the long term investment, yet at the same time, may be giving him guaranteed about 3/4 of what we might have to give him if we simply re-signed him. I was against re-signing him before, but now I wonder. What if we give him a deal w/ about $14m guaranteed. have about $4m of that in roster bonus (limiting the long term risk) and spreading out the other $10m over 6 years. If the guaranteed money we are talking about is less than half the difference from the tag amount, I do not think it makes sense to tag him. At that point, I think it makes more sense to simply re-sign him. Now, if he is seeking significantly more than Wayne got, then I say let him walk. If another team is willing to pony up that sort of coin for him, they can have him. But I question whether he will get that much more than Wayne, even two years later. Thus, I am now thinking we should re-sign him. I still do not think it happens before the start of FA, but I do think it happens.

Good point on the tag. Threat of a tag would be one incentive for Berrian to take a deal now, if in the same ballpark. It may not be as much as he could get in FA, if a bidding war starts, but if he wants long term security and wants to avoid being tagged, then he could be more inclined to take the deal. On the other hand, he has an agent who has not been pressured much by the threat of tags.

Re: Wahle, I know you were high on him, but I am not sure he would have been a really high profile FA. He is a name from the past, but has not played well of late. His signing a deal early w/o a great bonus might be evidence to that point. Not only that, but as he was cut, he was available to anyone, and thus a bidding war didn't have to be behind the scenes. His situation is not the same as Berrian/Briggs. I don't doubt that some bidding is going on right now for players who have not hit FA yet. At the same time, I would not agree it is the same as the true bidding war you often see after FA does in fact start. If it was all behind the scenes like you indicate, why wouldn't most all of the top FAs be signed w/in the first minutes of FA.

Beat you to it. I corrected myself already when I realized my error. But thanks for red lining it teach

No doubt Rosie is working the phones behind the scenes, and likely has been for some time. Regardless, I think the price is FAR from set. For example, below you mention Randle El. Well, there was a time we were considered the front runner w/ our offer, then Wash comes in and thows up a ton more. Remember Kearse? Bidding began in the $14m SB range, and then went up quick. Phily and Angelo got into a bidding war, and I think his final deal was in the $20m bonus range, w/ our final offer being around $18m. It is one thing to have an idea of what teams are thinking about, but things often change from there. When you are talking about the top FA WR in a weak FA class, I think you can expect a bidding war, and there is simply no way to predict how that goes. If teams like Wash, Dallas, or other big spenders jump into the fray, the war could really go up. If the big spending teams take a pass, the bidding could fizzle quickly. I am not saying we won't end up w/ him, but I simply do not see a deal getting done prior to the start of FA. I think that anyway you look at it, Rosie would believe he is leaving money on the table by avoiding FA, and that is simply something I do not see happening. No question players blow off care for all other factors when money is involved, but do you see us making an offer that so blows him away that he ignores those factors like Randle did? I see us making a "sweet" offer, but I do not see us making an offer that blows him away so much that he forgets all other cares. Now it is VERY possible a team like SF comes in an makes such an offer, and Berrian convinces himself that Alex Smith is the 2nd coming, but I simply do not see us making such an offer. An offer like that will not come prior to the start of FA. I just look at the numbers. We are talking about 3 guys who are going to command a ton of coin. And it isn't just about the cap. It is also about how much money the ownership is willing to shell out upfront at any one time. For example, to re-sign all three players, we could be talking about $65m or more ($30m for Harris, $20m for Briggs & $15m for Berrian). Has our ownership ever shelled out that much at one time? Even if they do, can we truly see them shelling out what it would take to get another OL? Cap aside, I do not see our ownership forking over $75, $85m or more at one time.

Sorry, but I am responding to myself as I realized the error in my math. Brown was given an "extension" of two years. So he is now locked up for 4 more seasons, while I was doing math for only two. So he got $5m (likely SB) which will be spread out over the next 4 years. $1.25m cap hit per year. His $5m and $5.5m base salaries are not until 2010 and 2011, so his 2008 salary is not affected by those increases. His 2008 base salary does not appear changed, so the end result is likely a simple increase of $1.25m to his 2008 cap charge. Thus Brown will hit our cap for around $3.5m or so. The cap charge for his final two years will be significantly higher, and closer to the numbers I listed before, but his cap hits this year and next are not significantly greater. Sorry for the F up.

It isn't that I want any of these players to leave, but I just do not see how we keep them. Briggs - W/ Suggs tagged, Briggs appears to be the top LB in FA. Not only that, but some might argue he is the top defensive player in FA. He is seeking a huge payday, and I simply question whether our offer will include the $20m+ up front he is likely to get from some other free spending teams. Further, while Briggs often talks about wanting to stay in Chicago, he has also made comments in the past about wanting to get out from Urlacher's shadow. He believes he is an elite player, but as long as he plays next to Urlacher, will he ever get his due? Berrian - Again, top FA at his position. Of all the possibilities, he is probably the most realistic. While the offers could get up there, I am not sure other teams are going to give him the sort of money he thinks (top 5 WR money). Due to our weakness at the position, I can see us over-paying to get him, and it will not be in the same ballpark as Briggs/Harris. Harris - He said last year he believes he should be paid similar to the top defensive player in the NFL. Not just the top DT, but the top defensive player at any position. Well, Freeney signed a deal for something like $30m last year, and it was right after that Harris made his comments. I think Harris is looking at the $30m figure, and I do not think we are going to offer close to that, especially after a year Harris dealt w/ injuries, again. I do not know whether another team would offer him a deal like Freeney, but it doesn't matter as Harris won't be on the market for another year. If he and Rosenarce believe he is worth that, Harris is not likely to sign a new deal for less. So while we may be upper the ante, I just do not see it being enough. It may eventually be enough for Berrian, but I do not see us re-signing him prior to the start of FA. I think Briggs is gone, and Harris will not be re-signed before next year.

From the Sun Times, Brown was due to get $500k base this year, but that just went up to $5m. The report says he also gets another $5m up front, which could be a signing bonus or roster bonus. Unknown at this time. He was also due a $600k (other bonus). He also still had (I think) around $1m due in bonus allocation from his original signing bonus. If it was a SB, then his cap hit jumps up to around $8.5m. If it was a roster bonus, his cap hit jumps to around $11m. Both of these are not counting the $600k "other bonus". This is pretty significant, as Brown was due to hit our cap for around $2m, but will now cost better than 4 or 5 times that much, depending on how the $5m up front is laid out. So while we created more cap space yesterday, we also used up much of the space we saved w/ the Brown extension.