These Are Some STATS Comparing Top 1st Rd. Pics and the Quality Of Players - VERY Long Post

[Lucky Luciano]

i posted the information in these draft pick comparisons over 15 years ago but they still can help in determining the quality of the NFL draft and where you pick. It is a very intensive time consuming effort I published on this board and on the previous Bears board. The data was compilied up until 2007. So take it for what it's worth (or disregard it if you please)..........

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2012
below are some statistics i compiled for the old board about 8 years ago and i have updated the information to date, 2012. it lists all players drafted in slots 1-20 in the first round and how they compare to obtaining a quality player drafting in these slots.

feel free if you wish to copy this information for your own records but please acknowledge where you got them from as it was an incredible amount of work putting this together.

thanks,

Lucky Luciano

 

my conclusions after looking at the statistics below i know i am not so sure i wouldn't consider trading up EVERY year into the top 10 if you want the odds on your side with selecting a quality player.

below are some interesting facts:

1)  over a 29 year period there were 580 picks in slots 1-20
2)  134 were quality picks in slots 1-10 or 23% of the players picked
3)  77 were quality picks in slots 11-20 or 13% of the players picked
4)  that makes it a 43.5% (edit per Mongo3451) better chance to land a better player in slots 1-10 than 11-20 in the first round.

the data below reads as follows:
YEAR - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 1-10 - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 11-20

1979 - 6 - 1
1980 - 5 - 3
1981 - 7 - 2
1982 - 5 - 2
1983 - 8 - 2
1984 - 3 - 3 *
1985 - 7 - 2
1986 - 4 - 1
1987 - 5 - 1
1988 - 6 - 7 **
1989 - 4 - 1
1990 - 4 - 3
1991 - 3 - 0
1992 - 3 - 3 *
1993 - 5 - 1
1994 - 5 - 4
1995 - 4 - 5 **
1996 - 5 - 2
1997 - 5 - 3
1998 - 2 - 3 **
1999 - 7 - 2
2000 - 4 - 6 **
2001 - 5 - 3
2002 - 3 - 3 *
2003 - 7 - 2
2004 - 5 - 4
2005 - 1 - 4 **
2006 - 3 - 2
2007 - 3 - 2

TOTAL 134 - 77

21 out of 29 times there were MORE quality players selected 1-10 than in slots 11-20.
*3 times they were even
**only 5 times in 29 years were there more pro bowl/all-pro players picked in slots 11-20.

i used data for 29 years from 1979 to 2007 inclusive. i did not go further than 2007 as the time frame would be not be long enough to determine any significant figures. over time some of these figures will change and have to be adjusted.

i also am using figures from picks 1-20 in the first round only to determine the value of drafting in the top 10 as compared to picking in the next 10 slots. although i haven't tallied up the differences in slots 21-32 i believe the numbers would be considerably lower. anyone who feels like doing the work is welcome to dispute that statement.

i went through an incredible amount of data to get these stats. all data was figured from players who had at LEAST two forms of award. EXAMPLE.. a player that had 1 pro bowl and 1 all-pro made the list, a player that was selected for 2 pro-bowls made the list, a player who was selected as all-pro (or all-nfl) twice made the list, and multiples of the above.

im no math expert by any means and if anyone see's any errors post them and/or i will post the players along with data. any who want can do the math on their own as it is possible i missed someone or added one by mistake. if you find any that dont jive let me know.
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listed below are the players that i used for the stats above from 1979 - 2007.  

how long did this take to compile this data you ask? days!

ap = ALL-PRO
pb = PRO BOWL
>> << BRACKETS ARE IMPACT PLAYERS WITH MULTIPLE PRO-BOWL OR ALL-PRO STATUS.

1979 - 6 - 1 - top 5 = 3
>> 1 Tom Cousineau Bills LB Ohio State - 2 ap >>
2 Mike Bell Chiefs DE Colorado State
3 Jack Thompson Bengals QB Washington State  
>> 4 Dan Hampton Bears DT Arkansas - 4 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 5 Jerry Butler Bills WR Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
6 Barry Krauss Colts LB Alabama
>> 7 Phil Simms Giants QB Morehead State - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 8 Ottis Anderson Cardinals RB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
9 Al Harris Bears DE Arizona State
>> 10 Keith Dorney Lions T Penn State - 1 pb - 2 ap<<
--------------------------------------------------
11 Russell Erxleben Saints K Texas
12 Charles Alexander Bengals RB LSU
>> 13 Kellen Winslow Chargers TE Missouri - 5 pb - 3 ap<<
14 Marty Lyons Jets DE Alabama
15 Eddie Lee Ivery Packers RB Georgia Tech  
16 Ted Brown Vikings RB North Carolina State
17 Don Smith Falcons DE Miami (FL) - 1 ap
18 Manu Tuiasosopo Seahawks DT UCLA  
19 George Andrews Rams LB Nebraska  
20 Willis Adams Browns WR Houston  
=======================================
1980 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 2
>> 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
2 Lam Jones Jets WR Texas
>> 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC - 10 pb - 11 ap<<
4 Bruce Clark Packers DT Penn State - 1 pb
5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M  
6 Curtis Greer Cardinals DE Michigan - 1 ap
>> 7 Junior Miller Falcons TE Nebraska - 2 pb<<
>> 8 Mark Haynes Giants DB Colorado - 3pb - 5 ap<<
9 Doug Martin Vikings DT Washington
>> 10 Jacob Green Seahawks DE Texas A&M- 2ap - 4 ap<<
--------------------------------------------
11 Brad Budde Chiefs G USC
12 Stan Brock Saints T Colorado
13 Earl Cooper 49ers RB Rice
14 Roland James Patriots DB Tennessee - 1 ap
15 Marc Wilson Raiders QB Brigham Young
>> 16 Jim Ritcher Bills C North Carolina State - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
17 Johnnie Johnson Rams DB Texas - 1 ap
>> 18 Art Monk Redskins WR Syracuse - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 19 Otis Wilson Bears LB Louisville - 1 pb - 2 ap <<
20 Jim Stuckey 49ers DT Clemson
=====================================================
1981 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5
>> 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 2 Lawrence Taylor Giants LB North Carolina - 10 pb - 8 ap<<
>> 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 4 Kenny Easley Seahawks DB UCLA - 5 pb - 5 ap<<
>> 5 E.J. Junior Cardinals LB Alabama - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
6 Rich Campbell Packers QB California
>> 7 Hugh Green Buccaneers LB Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 8 Ronnie Lott 49ers DB USC - 10 pb - 6 ap<<
9 Mel Owens Rams LB Michigan
10 David Verser Bengals WR Kansas
-----------------------------------------------------
11 Keith Van Horne Bears T USC  
12 Randy McMillan Colts RB Pittsburgh
13 David Overstreet Dolphins RB Oklahoma  
14 Willie Scott Chiefs TE South Carolina  
>> 15 Dennis Smith Broncos DB USC - 6 pb<<
16 Mark Nichols Lions WR San Jose State
17 Keith Gary Steelers DE Oklahoma
18 Donnell Thompson Colts DT North Carolina
>> 19 Brian Holloway Patriots T Stanford - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
20 Mark May Redskins T Pittsburgh - 1 ap
============================================
1982 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 2
1 Kenneth Sims Patriots DT Texas  
2 Johnie Cooks Colts LB Mississippi State  
>> 3 Chip Banks Browns LB USC - 4 pb - 4 ap<<
4 Art Schlichter Colts QB Ohio State
>> 5 Jim McMahon Bears QB Brigham Young - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
6 Jeff Bryant Seahawks DE Clemson - 1 ap
7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford
>> 8 Mike Munchak Oilers G Penn State - 9 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State - 3 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC - 5 pb - 2 ap<<
--------------------------------------------
11 Anthony Hancock Chiefs WR Tennessee
12 Walter Abercrombie Steelers RB Baylor
13 Lindsay Scott Saints WR Georgia  
14 Barry Redden Rams RB Richmond
15 Jimmy Williams Lions LB Nebraska  
>> 16 Luis Sharpe Cardinals T UCLA - 3 pb - 4 ap<<
17 Sean Farrell Buccaneers G Penn State - 1 ap
18 Butch Woolfork Giants RB Michigan  
19 Perry Tuttle Bills WR Clemson  
>> 20 Mike Quick Eagles WR North Carolina State - 5 pb - 4 ap<<
====================================
1983 - 8 - 2 - top 5 = 5
>> 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford - 9 pb<<
>> 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB SMU - 5 pb - 4 ap<<
>> 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State - 3 pb - 4 ap<<
>> 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern - 7 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 5 Billy Ray Smith Chargers LB Arkansas - 3 ap<<
>> 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
7 Todd Blackledge Chiefs QB Penn State  
8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State  
>> 9 Bruce Matthews Oilers G USC - 14 pb - 7 ap<<
>> 10 Terry Kinard Giants DB Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
--------------------------------------------
11 Tim Lewis Packers DB Pittsburgh - 1 ap
12 Tony Hunter Bills TE Notre Dame  
13 James Jones Lions RB Florida -
>> 14 Jim Kelly Bills QB Miami (FL) 5 pb - 1 ap<<
15 Tony Eason Patriots QB Illinois
16 Mike Pitts Falcons DE Alabama  
17 Leonard Smith Cardinals DB McNeese State 1 ap
18 Willie Gualt Bears WR Tennessee  
>> 19 Joey Browner Vikings DB USC - 6 pb - 5 ap<<
20 Gary Anderson Chargers RB Arkansas - 1 pb
================================
1984 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 3
>> 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska
>> 3 Carl Banks Giants LB Michigan State - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
4 Kenny Jackson Eagles WR Penn State  
>> 5 Bill Maas Chiefs DT Pittsburgh - 2 ap<<
6 Mossy Cade Chargers DB Texas
7 Ricky Hunley Bengals LB Arizona  
8 Leonard Coleman Colts DB Vanderbilt  
9 Rick Bryan Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap
10 Russell Carter Jets DB SMU  
--------------------------------------
>> 11 Wilber Marshall Bears LB Florida - 3 pb - 2 ap<<
12 Alphonso Carreker Packers DE Florida State  
>> 13 Keith Millard Vikings DE Washington State - 2 pb - 4 ap<<
14 Jackie Shipp Dolphins LB Oklahoma
15 Ron Faurot Jets DE Arkansas
16 Pete Koch Bengals DE Maryland
17 Clyde Duncan Cardinals WR Tennessee
18 Don Rogers Browns DB UCLA
>> 19 Ron Solt Colts G Maryland - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
20 David Lewis Lions TE California
==========================================
1985 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5
>> 1 Bruce Smith Bills DE Virginia Tech 11 pb - 8 ap<<
>> 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 3 Ray Childress Oilers DE Texas A&M - 5 pb - 6 ap<<
>> 4 Chris Doleman Vikings DE Pittsburgh - 8 pb - 4 ap<<
>> 5 Duane Bickett Colts LB USC - 1 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida - 7 pb - 6 ap<<
7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC  
8 Ron Holmes Buccaneers DE Washington
9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana
>> 10 Al Toon Jets WR Wisconsin - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
--------------------------------------------
11 Richard Johnson Oilers DB Wisconsin
>> 12 Jim Lachey Chargers T Ohio State - 3 pb - 5 ap<<
13 Eddie Brown Bengals WR Miami (FL) - 1 ap
14 Derrick Burroughs Bills DB Memphis State
15 Ethan Horton Chiefs RB North Carolina
>> 16 Jerry Rice 49ers WR Mississippi Valley State - 13 pb - 10 ap<<
17 Kevin Brooks Cowboys DE Michigan
18 Freddie Joe Nunn Cardinals DE Mississippi
19 George Adams Giants RB Kentucky
20 Darryl Sims Steelers DE Wisconsin
=======================================
1986 - 4 - 1 - top 5 = 2
>> 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn - 1 pb - 2 ap<<
2 Tony Casillas Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap
>> 3 Jim Everett Oilers QB Purdue - 1 pb - 2 ap<<
4 Jon Hand Colts DE Alabama
5 Anthony Bell Cardinals LB Michigan State  
6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia  
7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia
>> 8 Leslie O'Neal Chargers DE Oklahoma State - 6 pb<<
9 John Rienstra Steelers G Temple
>> 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
------------------------------------
11 Joe Kelly Bengals LB Washington
12 Chuck Long Lions QB Iowa
13 James Fitzpatrick Chargers T USC
14 Gerald Robinson Vikings DE Auburn
15 John L. Williams Seahawks RB Florida
16 Ronnie Harmon Bills RB Iowa - 1 pb  
17 Tim Green Falcons LB Syracuse
18 Mike Sherrard Cowboys WR UCLA
19 Eric Dorsey Giants DE Notre Dame
>> 20 Will Wolford Bills T Vanderbilt - 3 pb - 2 ap<<
=================================
1987 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2
>> 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 2 Cornelius Bennett Colts LB Alabama - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL)
4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn - 1 pb  
5 Mike Junkin Browns LB Duke
6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State
7 Reggie Rogers Lions DE Washington
>> 8 Shane Conlan Bills LB Penn State - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 9 Jerome Brown Eagles DT Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 10 Rod Woodson Steelers DB Purdue 11 pb - 6 ap<<
------------------------------------------------------
11 Shawn Knight Saints DT Brigham Young
12 Danny Noonan Cowboys DT Nebraska
13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon - 1 pb  
14 D.J. Dozier Vikings RB Penn State
15 John Clay Raiders T Missouri  
16 John Bosa Dolphins DE Boston College
17 Jason Buck Bengals DE Brigham Young
18 Tony Woods Seahawks LB Pittsburgh
19 Paul Palmer Chiefs RB Temple
>> 20 Haywood Jeffires Oilers WR North Carolina State - 3 pb - 2 ap<<
=========================================
1988 - 6 - 7 - top 5 = 3
1 Aundray Bruce Falcons LB Auburn -
>> 2 Neil Smith Chiefs DE Nebraska - 6 pb - 6 ap<<
>> 3 Bennie Blades Lions DB Miami (FL) - 1 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin - 3 ap<<
5 Rickey Dixon Bengals DB Oklahoma
>> 6 Tim Brown Raiders WR Notre Dame - 7 + - ap +<<
>> 7 Sterling Sharpe Packers WR South Carolina - 5 pb - 5 ap<<
8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC -
>> 9 Terry McDaniel Raiders DB Tennessee - 5 pb - 2 ap<<
10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana
-------------------------------------
>> 11 Michael Irvin Cowboys WR Miami (FL) - + pb - + ap<<
>> 12 Ken Harvey Cardinals LB California - + pb - + ap<<
>> 13 Keith Jackson Eagles TE Oklahoma - 5 pb - 4 ap<<
>> 14 Gaston Green Rams RB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap
>> 15 Anthony Miller Chargers WR Tennessee - 5 pb - 3 ap<<
16 Eric Kumerow Dolphins DE Ohio State
>> 17 John Stephens Patriots RB NW Louisiana - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
18 Aaron Jones Steelers DE Eastern Kentucky -
>> 19 Randall McDaniel Vikings G Arizona State - 12 pb - 7 ap<<
20 Aaron Cox Rams WR Arizona State  
=================================================
1989 - 4 -1 - top 5 = 4
>> 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA - 6 pb<<
2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State
>> 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State - 10 pb - 5 ap<<
>> 4 Derrick Thomas Chiefs LB Alabama - 9 pb - 2 ap<<
>> 5 Deion Snaders Falcons DB Florida State 8 pb - 6 ap<<
6 Broderick Thomas Buccaneers LB Nebraska
7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia
8 Burt Grossman Chargers DE Pittsburgh  
9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State  
10 Eric Hill Cardinals LB LSU  
---------------------------------------------
11 Donnell Woolford Bears DB Clemson - 1 pb  
12 Trace Armstrong Bears DE Florida 1 pb
13 Eric Metcalf Browns RB Texas  
14 Jeff Lageman Jets LB Virginia - 1 ap
15 Andy Heck Seahawks T Notre Dame - 1 ap
16 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots WR Oklahoma State  
17 Joe Wolf Cardinals G Boston College  
18 Brian Williams Giants C Minnesota  
19 Wayne Martin Saints DE Arkansas - 1 pb  
>> 20 Steve Atwater Broncos DB Arkansas - 8 pb - + ap<<
=========================================
1990 - 4 - 3 - top 5 = 2
1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois
2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State  
>> 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 6 ap<<
4 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama  
>> 5 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC - 12 pb - 6 ap<<
>> 6 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC - 3 pb - 3 ap<<
7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston
8 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona
>> 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M - 7 pb - 3 ap<<
10 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State -
--------------------------------------------
11 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona  
12 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor
13 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State
>> 14 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 15 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
16 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State  
>> 17 Emmitt Smith Cowboys RB Florida 8 pb - 4 ap<<
18 Tony Bennett Packers LB Mississippi  
19 Darrell Thompson Packers RB Minnesota  
20 Steve Broussard Falcons RB Washington State  
==============================================
1991 - 3 - 0 - top 5 = 1
1 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL) - 1 pb  
>> 2 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
3 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska  
4 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska  
5 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame - 1 pb
>> 6 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee  
8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee  
9 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas  
>> 10 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia - 4 pb - 3 ap<<
---------------------------------------
11 Pat Harlow Patriots T USC  
12 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee  
13 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado  
14 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State  
15 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida  
16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State  
17 Bobby Wilson Redskins DT Michigan State  
18 Alfred Williams Bengals LB Colorado
19 Vinnie Clark Packers DB Ohio State
20 Kelvin Pritchett Cowboys DT Mississippi
================================================
1992 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1
1 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington
2 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M  
>> 3 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
4 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan  
5 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State - 1 ap
6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston
>> 7 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford  
10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia
------------------------------------------
11 Leon Searcy Steelers T Miami (FL) - 1 pb
>> 12 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech - 2 pb<<
13 Eugene Chung Patriots T Virginia Tech  
14 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame
15 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska
>> 16 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson - 4 pb - + ap<<
17 Kevin Smith Cowboys DB Texas A&M - 1 ap
18 Dana Hall 49ers DB Washington -
19 Troy Smith Falcons RB Southern Mississippi
>> 20 Dale Carter Chiefs DB Tennessee - 4 pb - 4 ap<<
==========================================
1993 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2
>> 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State - 4 pb<<
2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame
>> 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia 2 pb<<
4 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State  
5 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama  
6 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama  
7 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC  
>> 8 William Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech - 11 pb - 3 ap<<
>>9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame - 6 pb - 2 ap<<
-------------------------------------
11 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo
12 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M  
>>13 Brad Hopkins Oilers T Illinois - 2 pb<<
14 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan  
15 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson  
16 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California  
17 Tom Carter Redskins DB Notre Dame  
18 Ernest Dye Cardinals T South Carolina  
19 Lester Holmes Eagles G Jackson State  
20 Irv Smith Saints TE Notre Dame  
====================================
1994 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 2
1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State  
>> 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State 7 pb - 3 ap<<
3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee  
>>4 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC - 2 pb<<
5 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska
6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State - 1 pb
>> 7 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame - 4 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 8 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M - 3 pb<<
9 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama  
>> 10 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
---------------------------------
11 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State
>> 12 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M - 3 pb<<
>> 13 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville 2 pb<<
14 Bernard Williams Eagles T Georgia  
15 Wayne Gandy Rams T Auburn  
16 Aaron Taylor Packers T Notre Dame
17 Charles Johnson Steelers WR Colorado  
18 DeWayne Washington Vikings DB North Carolina State  
>> 19 Todd Steussie Vikings T California - 2 pb<<
>> 20 Tim Bowens Dolphins DT Mississippi 2 pb<<
=========================================
1995 - 4 - 5 - top 5 = 3
1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State
>> 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC - 5 pb - 3 ap<<
>>3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State - 3 pb<<
4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado  
>>5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State - 2 pb<<  
>> 6 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida - 2 pb - 1ap<<
7 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College  
8 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State
9 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State
10 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA
--------------------------------------------
11 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State
>> 12 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 4 ap<<
>>13 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State - 2 pb<<
>> 14 Reuben Brown Bills G Pittsburgh - 9 pb<<
15 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida
>> 16 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH) - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
17 Tyrone Wheatley Giants RB Michigan
18 Napoleon Kaufman Raiders RB Washington  
19 James Stewart Jaguars RB Tennessee
>> 20 Luther Elliss Lions DE Utah - 2 pb<<
==========================================
1996 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4
>> 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC - 3 pb<<
>> 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
>> 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois - 3 pb 1 ap<<
>> 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA - 11 pb - 4 ap<<
5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma
6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska  
7 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State - 1 pb
8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan  
9 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State  
>>10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn - 4 pb - 3 ap<<
-----------------------------------------
11 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon  
12 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California
13 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State
>> 14 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State - 4 pb - 1 ap<<
15 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA) - 1 ap
16 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California  
17 Reggie Brown Lions LB Texas A&M
18 Eddie Kennison Rams WR LSU  
>> 19 Marvin Harrison Colts WR Syracuse - 8 pb - 3 ap<<
20 Daryl Gardener Dolphins DT Baylor  
==============================================
1997 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 3
>> 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State - 7 pb - 3 ap<<
>> 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State - 1 pb
>> 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State - 4 pb<<
5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas
>> 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State - 8 pb - 4 ap<<
7 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida
>>8 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
9 TOM Knight Cards CB Iowa
10 Chris Naeole Saints G Colorado  
------------------------------------------
11 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska
>> 12 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State - 3 pb<<
>> 13 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California - 12 pb 5 ap<<
14 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State  
15 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL)  
16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida
17 Kenard Lang Redskins DE Miami (FL)
18 Kenny Holmes Oilers DE Miami (FL)  
>>19 Tarik Glenn Colts T California - 3 pb<<
20 Dwayne Rudd Vikings LB Alabama
====================================
1998 - 2 - 3 - top 5 = 2
>> 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee - 11 pb - 5 ap<<
2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State
3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State  
>> 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan - 8 pb - 3 ap<<
5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State
6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska  
7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State - 1 ap
8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina
9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida  
10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL)  
--------------------------------------
>> 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State - 3 pb<<
>> 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech - 5 pb<<
>>13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska  
15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson  
16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah  
17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina  
18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia  
19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina  
20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee  
======================================
1999 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3
1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky
>>2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse 6 pb<<
3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon
>>4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) - 4 pr - 1 ap<<
>>5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
>>6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State - 7 pb - 1 ap<<
>>7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia - 11 pb - 3 ap<<
>>8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC
>>10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
------------------------------------------
>>11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida 3 pb<<
12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA
13 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech
14 John Tait Chiefs T Brigham Young
15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU
>>16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College
18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia
19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame
20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina
=========================================
2000 - 4 - 6 - top 5 = 3
1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State
>>2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State - 3 pb<<
>>3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama - 6 pb<<
4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State
>>5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State
7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia
8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State
>>9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico - 8 pb - 4 ap<<
10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida
---------------------------------------
11 Ron Dayne Giants RB Wisconsin
>>12 Shaun Ellis Jets DE Tennessee - 2 pb<<
>>13 John Abraham Jets LB South Carolina - 4 pb - 2 ap<<
>>14 Bubba Franks Packers TE Miami (FL) - 3 pb<<
>>15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
>>16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State
18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall
>>19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama  - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma
======================================
2001 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 4
>>1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech - 4 pb<<
>>2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas - 3 pb<<
3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida
>>4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
>>5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian - 5 pb - 3 ap<<
>>6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia - 7 pb - 3 ap<<
7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California
8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan
9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State
10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State
----------------------------------------------
11 Dan Morgan Panthers LB Miami (FL)
12 Damione Lewis Rams DT Miami (FL)
>>13 Marcus Stroud Jaguars DT Georgia - 3 pb<<
14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers T Florida
15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson
16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL)
>>17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan - 7 pb - 5 ap<<
18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan
>>19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas - 5 pb<<
20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State
==========================================
2002 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1
1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State
>>2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina - 6 pb - 3 ap<<
3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon
4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas
5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas
6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina
7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL)
>>8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
>>9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee - 2 pb<<
10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State
-------------------------------------
>>11 Dwight Freeney Colts LB Syracuse - 7 pb - 3 ap<<
12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin
13 Donte Stallworth Saints WR Tennessee
>>14 Jeremy Shockey Giants TE Miami (FL) 4 pb - 1 ap<<
>>15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee - 2 pb - 2 ap<<
16 William Green Browns RB Boston College
17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL)
18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State
19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii
20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State
============================================
2003 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3
>>1 Carson Palmer Bengles QB USC - 2 pb<<
2 Charles Rogers Detroit WR Michigan State
>>3 Andre Johnson Houston WR Miami (Fla.) - 5 pb - 2 ap<<
4 Dewayne Robertson NYJ DT Kentucky
>>5 Terence Newman Dallas CB Kansas State - 2 pb<<
6 Johnathan Sullivan Saints DT Georgia
7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars QB Marshall
>>8 Jordan Gross Panthers OT Utah - 2 pb - 1 pb<<
>>9 Kevin Williams Vikings DT Oklahoma State - 6 pb - 5 ap<<
>>10 Terrell Suggs Ravens DE Arizona State - 5 pb - 1 ap<<
--------------------------------------------
11 Marcus Trufant Seahawks CB Washington State
12 Jimmy Kennedy Rams DT Penn State
13 Ty Warren Patriots DT Texas A&M
14 Michale Haynes Bears DE Penn State
15 Jerome McDougle Eagles DE Miami (Fla.)
>>16 Troy Polamalu Steelers SS Southern California - 7 pb - 4 ap<<
17 Bryant Johnson Cards WR Penn State
18 Calvin Pace Cards DE Wake Forest
19 Kyle Boller Ravens QB California
20 George Foster Broncos OT Georgia
====================================================
2004 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 4
>>1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi - 2 pb<<
2 Robert Gallery Raiders OT Iowa
>>3 Larry Fitzgerald Cards WR Pittsburgh - 6 pb - 1 ap<<
>>4 Philip Rivers Giants/Chargers QB North Carolina State - 4 pb<<
>>5 Sean Taylor Redskins DB Miami (FL) - 2 pb<<
6 Kellen Winslow II Browns (from Detroit) TE Miami (FL)
7 Roy Williams Lions (from Cleveland) WR Texas
>>8 DeAngelo Hall Falcons DB Virginia Tech - 3 pb<<
9 Reggie Williams Jaguars WR Washington
10 Dunta Robinson Texans DB South Carolina
--------------------------------------------------
>>11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers QB Miami (OH) - 2 pb<<
>>12 Jonathan Vilma NYJ LB Miami (FL) - 2 pb<<
13 Lee Evans Bills WR Wisconsin
>>14 Tommie Harris Bears DT Oklahoma - 3 pb<<
15 Michael Clayton Bucs WR LSU
>>16 Shawn Andrews Eagles (from San Francisco) OT Arkansas = 2 pb - 1 ap<<
17 D.J. Williams Broncos (from Cincinnati) LB Miami (FL)
18 Will Smith Saints DE Ohio State
19 Vernon Carey Miami (from Minnesota) OT Miami (FL)
20 Kenechi Udeze Vikings (from Miami) DE USC
================================================
2005 - 1 - 4 - top 5 = 0
1 Alex Smith Niners QB Utah
2 Ronnie Brown Miami RB Auburn
3 Braylon Edwards Browns WR Michigan
4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas
5 Cadillac Williams Bucs RB Auburn
6 Pacman Jones Titans CB West Virginia
7 Troy Williamson Vikings WR South Carolina
>>8 Antrel Rolle Cards DB Miami (Fla.) - 2 pb<<
9 Carlos Rogers Skins DB Auburn
10 Mike Williams Lions WR USC
-----------------------------------------------
>>11 DeMarcus Ware Cowboys OLB Troy State - 6 pb - 4 ap<<
>>12 Shawne Merriman Chargers OLB Maryland - 3 pb - 1 ap<<
>>13 Jammal Brown Saints T Oklahoma - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
14 Thomas Davis Panthers DB Georgia
>>15 Derrick Johnson Chiefs OLB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
16 Travis Johnson Texans DT Florida State
17 David Pollack Bengals LB Georgia
18 Erasmus James Vikings DE Wisconsin
19 Alex Barron Rams T Florida State
20 Marcus Spears Cowboys DE Louisiana State
====================================================
2006 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 3
>>1 Mario Williams Texans DE North Carolina State - 2 pb<<
2 Reggie Bush Saints RB USC
>>3 Vince Young Titans QB Texas - 2 pb<<
>>4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets T Virginia - 3 pb<<
5 A.J. Hawk Packers OLB Ohio State
6 Vernon Davis Niners TE Maryland
7 Michael Huff Raiders SS Texas
8 Donte Whitner Bills SS Ohio State
9 Ernie Sims Lions OLB Florida State
10 Matt Leinart Cards QB USC
-----------------------------------------------------
11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB Vanderbilt
>>12 Haloti Ngata Ravems DT Oregon - 3 pb - 2 ap<<
13 Kamerion Wimbley Browns OLB Florida State
14 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT Florida State
15 Tye Hill Rams CB Clemson
16 Jason Allen Miami DB Tennessee
17 Chad Greenway Vikings LB Iowa
18 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB Ohio State
>>19 Antonio Cromartie Chargers CB Florida State - 1 pb - 1 ap<<
20 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE Penn State
====================================================
2007 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 2
1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB Louisiana State
>>2 Calvin Johnson Lions WR Georgia Tech - 2 pb - 1 ap<<
>>3 Joe Thomas Browns OT Wisconsin - 5 pb - 3 ap<<
4 Gaines Adams Bucs DE Clemson
5 Levi Brown Cards OT Penn State
6 LaRon Landry Skins SS Louisiana State
>>7 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB Oklahoma - 4 pb - 2 ap<<
8 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE Arkansas
9 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami WR Ohio State
10 Amobi Okoye Texans DT Louisville
---------------------------------------------------
>>11 Patrick Willis Niners ILB Mississippi - 5 pb - 4 ap<<
12 Marshawn Lynch Bills RB California
13 Adam Carriker Rams NT Nebraska
>>14 Darrelle Revis Jets CB Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap<<
15 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB Florida State
16 Justin Harrell Packers DT Tennessee
17 Jarvis Moss Broncos DE Florida
18 Leon Hall Bengals CB Michigan
19 Michael Griffin Titans FS Texas
20 Aaron Ross Giants CB Texas
====================================================
====================

i dont think anyone (or at least myself) is trying to imply that if you pick in the top 5 or 10 that you are guaranteed a high impact player with that pick. the lists i posted clearly show that. but... i think what it does show is that you have a much better chance at achieving the goal of every organization by picking in these slots than in lower ones.

to aquire a franchise player it can't just be determined by money vs. reward risk when you draft. otherwise why even draft at all in the first round? you will end up like the redskins under the former bear dc george allen and even without the the salary cap at that time it just didn't work.

drafting high... will you miss sometimes? absolutely! but the old saying if you DON'T try you will NEVER succeed. if teams that draft consistanly in the top 5 spots can afford it every year why can't the bear organization in the few times over decades afford it? i think the fact that this franchise has had TWO quality qb's (one was a free agent) in 40 years speaks volumes of the risk reward consequences.

these are some interesting draft stats. below are chicago bear hall of fame players and where they were drafted:

HOF 1st round top 10 picks

1. Clyde Bulldog Turner 7th pick 1st round
2. Joe Stydahar 6th pick 1st round
3. Gayle Sayers 4th pick 1st round
4. Walther Payton 4th pick 1st round
5. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round
6. George McAfee 2nd pick 1st round (drafted by eagles and immediately traded to bears)
7. Sid Luckman 2nd pick 1st round
8. Mike Ditka 5th pick 1st round
9. George Connor 5th pick 1st round (drafted by ny giants)
10. Dick Butkus 3rd pick 1st round
11. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round

HOF 1st round picks 11 - +

1. Doug Atkins 11th pick 1st round

HOF later rounds

1. Mike Singletary 38th pick 2nd round
3. Bill George 2nd round
2. Stan Jones 5th round
6. Richard Dent 8th round
4. Danny Fortmann 9th round pick
5. George Blanda 12th round

HOF not listed as draft picks. prior to 1936

1. Bronco Nagurski
2. George Musso
3. Roy Lyman
4. Bill Hewitt
5. Ed Healey
6. George Halas
7. John Driscol

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Lucky Luciano
math correction

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

1)  over a 29 year period there were 580 picks in slots 1-20
2)  134 were quality picks in slots 1-10 or 23% of the players picked
3)  77 were quality picks in slots 11-20 or 13% of the players picked
4)  that makes it a 10% better chance to land a better player in slots 1-10 than 11-20 in the first round.

Quick math correction.  It's actually 43.5% better chance to be a quality pick in the top 10 vs 10-20.  

[Lucky Luciano]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Quick math correction.  It's actually 43.5% better chance to be a quality pick in the top 10 vs 10-20.  

thanks, i really suck at math unfortunately. feel free to correct anything that is wrong.

[killakrzydav]

Math rules!