When teams deviate from consensus

So I wanted to see who was more correct, the consensus on players (big boards) or where teams selected them. I have more work to do with this, but here is a quick snapshot. I looked at 2023 and 2024, just rounds 1-3, and identified the 3 lowest producing players based on their draft slot, the busts. Then I compared that to where the big board had them.

In 11 out of 18 the team drafted the player higher than the consensus, making bad picks into busts. The consensus only had 5 players higher than they were drafted that turned out to be busts. So the consensus is over 2x more accurate than the teams own evaluations. Meaning that if all these teams stuck to the big board, they would've had 2x better odds at hitting on a player.

2023

Van Ness @ 13 (27th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Anudike-Uzomah @ 32 (32nd) - BOTH WRONG

Murphy @ 28 (17th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG

2nd Round

Ojulari @ 41 (57th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Cam Smith @ 51 (41st) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG

Foskey @ 40 (73rd) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

3rd Round

Hooker @ 68 (47th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG

Stromberg @ 97 (N/A) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Ika @ 98 (88th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG

2024

McCarthy @ 10 (28th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Chop Robinson @ 21 (40th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Darius Robinson @ 27 (61st) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Polk @ 37 (48th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Sinnot @ 53 (105th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Rakestraw @ 61 (46th) - CONSENSUS REALLY WRONG

Trice @74 (98th) - TEAM REALLY WRONG

Reiman @82 (202nd) - HOLY SHIT TEAM REALLY WRONG

Lloyd @88 (84th) - BOTH WRONG