AZ54

I think Scott is always going to be what he is right now, a #4 WR. I won't mind if he proves me wrong.

I've been watching the press conferences the last few days. It is still early but so far this offense with Caleb is definitely not the usual rookie QB show. There is so much more offense to install and timing to get down but as near as I can tell from reporters on the scene he is not overwhelmed by any of this. His professional approach appears to be winning over the locker room on both side of the ball. Dexter just flat looks like a different man and is very mature in his approach to getting better. Above all though was his confidence in himself as he spoke at the podium. Dline depth will remain a concern until proven otherwise. So far I like this new DC Eric Washington. Simple straight talking man but I get the sense if he tells you someone or something is good he means it. Otherwise he's going to talk about what needs to be worked on. Seems like the kind of leader players respect as a man and not just as the coach. Time will tell if he can get results.

For sure, but you are also looking for positive signs within the culture that things are moving forward.

I don't really see a logical thread for tracking Williams progress. I'm was actually shocked as I read this. They certainly don't appear to be holding anything back with Williams. He's going to experience it all and that means they think he can handle it and they want him ready for anything in game 1. I figured first day in practice it's going to be kid gloves type of stuff like we've always seen before. There are more tidbits in the article that further highlight improvement with Williams since the OTAs. https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-training-camp-report-saturday-july-20-caleb-williams-offense-play-of-the-day-injury-health-update Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the No. 1 offense looked sharp. "Really the whole day, I thought that was a great start for us," said receiver Keenan Allen. "We looked real solid; no repeats and everybody was on the same page. "[Williams] called the plays way better than he was at OTAs. He felt confident in the plays and knowing what he was doing. There was no timidness from him today." ..... "We gave him a lot during the spring and in the summer: formation, motion, understanding a concept, run kills, killer to run, killer to pass, alerts," said coach Matt Eberflus. "All those things were a couple levels up, and you could see it. How do you see it? You see it in the execution. They're in and out of the huddle. I think we only had one today where they weren't, and it was much better." .... "You'll see different rush groups in there because four equals one when you're rushing the quarterback," Eberflus said. "So we'll do a lot of that during this process. "What that does is it gets experience and exposure for all of these guys, especially the quarterback. We're going to give him variations of all coverage, all blitz, everything he sees, fronts, everything he's going to see during the course of the year. And that's by design so he gets that exposure and experience to that."

If this were true why do so many coaches get fired? Why do teams pay more for a guy like Mike Shanahan, Andy Reid (who once got fired too), Sean McVay, Belichik? By the way Andy Reid was the coach who couldn't win the big game for a very, very long time and for years was the coach who wouldn't run the ball. There is clearly something there but like everything else there is a distribution to the really good coaches at the top, the middle ground, and then those who just shouldn't be in that role (i.e. Matt Nagy).

Pressure does funny things to people. It is especially hard to take over an organization and turn it around. It's even more awkward when you have to deal with people who you know are not up to the task. Sure Flus hired Getsy and Williams but we'll never know how far down the list they were amng the coaches he wanted. We do know it took quite a bit of time to assemble that staff. He's been around the league a long time too so he knows a lot of coaches. Of course he fired both so he saw it, knew it. I'm pretty sure he knew it with Getsy in year 1 when he forced him to revise the offense and they came out against NE and won the game with Fields running. It was easier to fire Williams and Flus to take over that role but there were no good options for that on offense. All that responsibility still lands on his shoulders and Flus knew Poles could have easily justified firing him. Under that pressure is where you see people sometimes start doing things they otherwise wouldn't do to try and get a spark and win a game. Remember Matt Nagy and his "cute" plays that got out of hand. In the end I think it was the defensive turnaround that saved Flus. To be fair, the offense did improve as well in the 2nd half once Flus had better command of the D. You get a huge boost in confidence when your boss tells you I understand it wasn't you and you are building this thing in the right direction. We'll see how it plays out but roster talent and coaching talent are no longer issues he has to work around. That frees up his mind to focus more on the head coaching job. He still has a young QB and after the Fields/Getsy experience I expect he'll make sure to be around Caleb/Waldron early on to make sure things are going in the right direction. On the defensive side he kept Jon Hoke to help as defensive passing game coordinator and Washington seems better able to handle the Dline and run defense setup. He kept Hightower for continuity on special teams.

There are tipping points in sports where the individual stats don't matter as much as the collection of talent, and then teams start to dominate. The EPA metric might be very good at capturing that but it's still a historical trend. Each team each season is different. I think what happened in Detroit last year captures that. Nobody was talking about them until after the first quarter of the season, or more. In 2022 they were in bottom right quadrant and last year they moved up (just barely) into the top right where it seems the good teams exist. That also kinda backs up my point that Detroit isn't all that elite. What is noteworthy is the massive jump up the Bears made last year from way down in the bottom left quadrant (low D, low O) to center of the chart. If Caleb can avoid the deer-in-the-headlights crap we saw on offense in the first 6 games last year, and our D can avoid the cluster of injuries we had to the DBs early on there is no reason not to expect us to move up on D and O this year. Plus we have better depth on both sides of the ball this year.

I think there are too many mouths to feed and an OC who knows how to spread the ball around. Even if Williams were to throw for 4000 yds. Give 800 each to DJ, Keenan, and Odunze. That’s 2400. Give 500 to Kmet and 400 to Everett. Now at 3300. Here again the OC likes to use TEs and with DBs focused on the WRs these guys figure to be the easy mismatch for Caleb to take advantage of. Give 300 to Swift. Now at 3600. There will easily be a cluster of others like Scott or Jones or Roschon who collectively get 400. To see Odunze get 1000 I think we need an injury to Moore or Allen for a few games so he gets more reps. We’d also need Caleb to throw for something crazy like 4500 yards.

The Bears did right by waiting on Conner Williams. He's had another month to not just heal the knee but gain strength. Now they have the full training staff in place and it's easy to bring him in for a thorough eval. There is no DE available who will dramatically change the roster, they'll just be expensive depth pieces on a 1yr rental. I'm not happy with Nate Davis so far this offseason. Williams, if healthy, presents a chance to give Caleb an elite Center for the next 4 seasons. We have the money now if we choose and can sort out the oline future next season but unless there is a dramatic turnaround Davis isn't likely in the picture for 2025. Even if Davis did play well, assuming Jenkins does the same and is healthy I think the team would rather build around Jenkins who definitely is putting in the offseason work to get better. IMO Bates is a better Guard than Center and sitting between Williams and Wright he'd be fine. Translation for me: I'm holding onto my options with Williams as long as possible to validate his health. Then I decide.

As expected the contract chatter before camp was much ado about nothing. Yes, Phx you are correct all that contract 'ownership" stuff looks to have been nothing but noise and distraction. We'll see how the career and contracts go in the future but I'll forever wonder what Tom Brady told Caleb when they were talking over the summer. Many players make their money off playing (i.e. the contract). Brady was never focused on being the highest paid, he was focused on making his money off winning, and still is earning big money off that. You need to believe in yourself to make that happen... https://sports.yahoo.com/tom-brady-retires-record-475-180432340.html Brady repeatedly signed below-market deals with New England to help its roster-building under the cap, but he still retires with a record $293 million in playing salary and bonuses. Sportico estimates Brady earned $180 million off the field over the past 22 years from endorsements, licensing, appearances and memorabilia. Taken all together, his career earnings are estimated at $475 million, which would rank No. 22 among athletes all-time, not adjusted for inflation, and is a record haul for an NFL player while active.

Odunze is signed.

Well earned! If the standard is that you changed the way the game had to be played when you were on the field then nobody is more deserving. Can't wait for the ceremony. https://x.com/ProFootballHOF/status/1812905556815798409

Sign Connor Williams.

100% this makes sense. The biggest data point for that is the fact Odunze hasn’t signed. #1 picks overall may or may not have details to iron out but not really at #9. Also we’ve seen nothing from Odunze, nor Williams, that they don’t want to get to work right away. Williams is focused on setting records in his career. The first one he can get is to be the first #1 overall QB to win his first NFL game.

I doubt they change a safety this far into his career, especially one new to the team and scheme. Add in that our safety depth is a big problem, at least IMO. Gordon's backup might be sliding Tyrique Stevenson inside and then put Smith outside. As a physical CB Stevenson is built well for that role. He might not have the elite quickness of Gordon but as discussed in the article I think he has the other attributes needed plus we play more zone coverage. This is definitely a backstory to watch in training camp.