Williams vs Maye

Johnson vs Vrabel+Russini

Efficiency-wise, these teams are basically identical:

EPA/Play
CHI OFF -0.03 vs NE DEF -0.07 = -0.10
NE OFF 0.00 vs CHI DEF -0.11 = -0.11

They are also within 1% of each other on offense and defense for QB Pressure Rate.

Thru 6 games, the Bears are 2nd in Offensive Yardage, NE is 4th. NE has the slight edge in Passing, CHI slight edge rushing. CHI averages 25 PPG, NE averages 22.7.

The defenses have allowed basically the same amount of yards (within 9 yards). CHI has allowed 21 fewer 1st Downs. NE averages 18.8 and CHI averages 19.8.

NE is 1-2 on the road, 13-10 loss in SEA, 35-6 loss in JAX, and a 29-26 win in BUF.
CHI is 2-1 at home, wins against PHI and NYJ, and the loss to MIN in the monsoon. The home/away seems to favor CHI slightly.

NE is coming in with a 3-game win streak (BUF, LVR, NYJ). NE is 1-1 on TNF in the last two years, both against NYJ. CHI is 0-2 from 2024 (Flusera), losing to DET on Thanksgiving (to Ben Johnson no less) and to SEA 6-3 in Week 17 (team was already checked out). Those games don't feel relevant. However, the home team wins 66% of the TNF games since 2023 (33-17). That is a significant number.

I don't like how even this game is though, but CHI gets all the benefits of TNF at home. It feels like injuries and the officials will play a huge part in the outcome.

If the Bears play anywhere close to what they did against ATL, I like the Bears by 10. Otherwise it is going to be a squeaker within 3 and could go either way.

Bears 30-20.

Big game this Thursday. Patriots are a very good team, albeit a bit banged up, with an elite young qb. Bears are similar. Would be awesome to beat the defending Super Bowl runners up! Let’s go Bears!!!