BearFan PHX
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On 4/30/2024 at 4:00 PM, adam said:
OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching.
It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria:
HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023
DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022
CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018
Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams.
Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff.
The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.I think the idea that having 2 top picks significantly improves a team is obvious and a no brainer.
Im not sure about using the raw number of wins as the measure of improvement though for several reasons. One is that the fewer wins a team had the previous year, the more wins you can give them while they are still mediocre. It's a bigger leap from 7 to 10 wins than it is from 2 to 7 wins.Z
Youd want to find a way to measure the improvement that makes moving toward an 8-9 record easier than, say getting above 10 wins?
HOU went from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 in 2023. Rather than expressing that as a percentage increase, I'll say that it proves a good rookie QB can lead a team to at least 10 wins.
DET went from 3-13-1 in 2021 to 9-8 in 2022 to 12-5 in 2023. it is clearly possible to get up in the 9 and 10 win territory when you add first round talent. I think it's hard to stay at the 3 win level after two high picks, that seems clear.
CLE went from 0-16 in 2017 to 7-8-1 in 2018 and then 6-10 in 2019 but they are Cleveland.
I think it's fair from this data to guess that 9 or 10 wins is the FLOOR for this roster. I think this roster is more stacked than any of those teams were. I dont thin 12 or 13 wins is an outrageous thing to think might happen, but until I see the pieces on the field together, I have a hard time saying more than 10 as a predicition.
If the preseason or the first few games looks like we came ready to play, I would start thinking higher at that point. -
1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:
To add, I am Poles' biggest fan. However, I have stopped him of his Lordship until the center position is proven solid. From here on out, it could be coronation or castration...
that is totally fair!
Listen Ryan, I'm willing to forget about Claypool and Velus, but get that OL good OK?
He's made a lot of moves on the OL, let's see how they look together, I wish I had the kind of confidence on the new guys that I have in Keenan Allen, but maybe theyre gonna be great, and hopefully at least decent. -
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1 hour ago, adam said:
Yeah, and from listening to Jaylon, the defense and secondary can't wait for the challenge, which will also make them better. Iron sharps iron is a real thing.
You're correct, it's exponential for sure, and the QB is the biggest exponentialator! As good as Fields was with his deep ball or escaping sure sacks, everything else was lackluster, which really neutered the offense. If those areas are just average, and Williams can just stay on time, these WRs are going to eat. Odunze is drawing CB3 every game. Just go look up the Bears opponents and find their CB3's PFF Grade. Basically, it is going to be Odunze against Kindle Vildor every week. It is going to be comical.
To compensate, teams will have to have a light box, so get ready for Swift, Herbert, and Roschon to cook on the ground.
If the offense can score, then the defense will be playing against a more predictable opponent offense, which will make the defense better.
Then if we actually have a real punter who can pin opponents inside the 20 consistently, I can't see how this is not a top 10 team in the NFL, and that is being somewhat "safe".
yeah, maybe I'm drunk on blue and orange kool aid, but that's how it looks to me too. THis offense just has too many weapons, Caleb just has to operate it, and I think he will do more than that.
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19 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Injuries are the only thing in the way of a winning record. Something people keep forgetting is a generational QB lifts the players around him. Even as a rookie ( will make mistakes) you will see him give the OL a boost and help make the weapons better if that is possible.
no doubt Calebs pocket presence and the way he moves to help his lineman will make things better even if he had the same line performance we had last year. Not saying he could thrive with that, but whatever he faces he will make at least somewhat better by his pocket skills.
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12 minutes ago, adam said:
I see what you did there.
Also remember Caleb has never had a supporting cast like this in his life. I know the competition will be the toughest he has ever seen, but I think the supporting cast outweighs the difference.
What team actually concerns you from the schedule with Caleb at QB? Division games are always different, so here are the non-Division games:
HOME
Los Angeles Rams - without Donald, this is a completely different team/defense
Seattle Seahawks - with new coaching staff, this team is a big question mark
Jacksonville Jaguars - they never took off as many expected them to, Lawrence going into his 4th season and is good but not great
Tennessee Titans - No QB and no Henry, enjoy 4-6 wins annually
Carolina Panthers - They might win 3-4 games this year
New England Patriots - This team was terrible and now with Maye who is still learning, Year 1 of their rebuild
AWAY
Arizona Cardinals - Even after adding MHJ, this is still a bad team that feels like they are in the middle of rebuild but still have an expensive QB they don't want
San Francisco 49ers - They are running out of time with overpriced vets, now with a year of tape on Purdy. Still the team to beat in the NFC, but not scary.
Houston Texans - This may be the game of the year and a future Super Bowl matchup in the making. I like both teams, but teams now have tape on Stroud. He seemed to sneak up on teams who were not prepared.
Indianapolis Colts - This always feels like a slightly above average team, but without a QB
Washington Commanders - This team reminds me of NE for the NFC. How many hits can Daniels take? Every hit is like the Johnny Knox injurySo out of those 11 teams/games, SF and HOU are the only real challenges and mainly because they are good teams on the road. Outside of those two games, every other game should be considered winnable where the line favors the Bears or it is within a FG as the underdog. Against HOU and SF, the line will probably be +6 or 7.
I think the Bears biggest opponent will be how well they fulfill their own potential. It'll all be about coaching and execution. Which is always true, but in this case we have serious winning potential.
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34 minutes ago, adam said:
It does not take into account for those external things, but it also doesn't take into account Williams playing at a high level, which if that happens, this team is going to be really hard to beat.
I dunno how closely past stats predict future outcomes, especially with so much noise in the system, but I still loved your bold font! And youre right, the stats dont take into account whether Williams will be more than an average QB as defined in those stats.
Im cautious about expecting perfection, but his floor is awfully high too. He is more NFL ready than most ever are coming into the league, so hes already probably the 15th best QB in the league right now without even having learned a thing in training camp yet. And by learning I dont mean like "oh thats what cover 3 is" but more just the average speed and level of talent in the league, and what is exploitable and what isnt.
One really good thing for Caleb is that he is going to face our secondary in practice a lot, and thankfully they are a good test. Especially if he starts picking them apart and they get better as a result too.
Everything in football is a multiplier, the ultimate team game. If just one piece is a 0, then everything is a 0. But when your roster is good, then the players elevate each other by having to play against them all week.
I've heard that the 1985 Bears offense found gameday to be the easiest day of the week for them. Games were easier than playing against their own defense during the week. -
2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
I know what you are relaying and it's a decent theory. However, I was a validation specialist for many years at a pharma company, so I'm very picky with stats. It is a cool stat.
Youre not wrong at all. I just loved the idea that something was being asserted as more than just an opinion for once, and in a bold font! But I you're right, I have to agree.
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32 minutes ago, adam said:
It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable.
Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT
Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355
Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781
TY Hilton (23) - 50-861Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521
Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152
Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league.
true. i guess the flip side is that Indy probably felt like they had no running game, so they threw a lot?
I have no problem thinking that Williams might match the per pass numbers that Luck put up, but I wonder if he will have as many attempts?
I think the Bears offense will be a balanced attack, which will be great for taking all the load off of Williams' shoulders, while being a total nightmare for defenses. We've talked a lot about the problems our receiver group will present to defenses, and whether Caleb can execute enough to make that talent shine, but we havent spoken much about our new running back and how much worse it's gonna be when we have a good ground game while simultaneously putting all those WRs out there.
The big winner in the Williams / Odunze draft is going to be our HB Swift.
I think our new motto should be "Who needs Taylor, when we've got D'Andre?" LOL -
29 minutes ago, adam said:
Kelce has two more years, they will probably go all in for the next two, then do a soft reboot. The first step is the Division, then beating SF.
My hope was win the division this year, then beat SF next year, then Super Bowl wins from 2026-2034.
I remember the Bears losing the NFC Championship game to Joe Montana in 1984. The '85 roster was mostly complete, so they had the talent, but not the identity yet. They needed to go through that, to know how good they needed to be to get there, and how far down deep inside they had to reach to become truly great.
And while an era of bears dominance will be great, I personally hope that KC doesnt fade to give us space for it, but instead, we have to learn to dominate and take it from them at their best, like Jordan and Bulls who couldn't get past the Pistons until they were so good that they never got stopped again. Those failures sharpen the blade until it cuts through anything.
Obviously I want to see it happen quickly, but I want to see it for real, not because a fumble went our way or KC double doinks an easy FG that should have been a game winner. No, I want to take victory decisively from opponents, and dictate dominance so that we absolutely deserve our success. That kind of bully team is what I've waited 40 years to see again. So if it takes a few key defeats to harden this steel, it will be worth it.
By the time we played the Rams in the playoffs in 1985, no one was thinking "we'd better be careful" or "how can we edge by them?" we expected and delivered a total beatdown, the Rams were humbled and outclassed. In fact the Bears didn't allow a SINGLE POINT throughout the playoffs that year, and only surrendered 10 points in the superbowl, a game in which we scored 46 points.
Losing to Montana in 84 taught them that being good wasnt enough. Beating most teams wasnt enough. They got a glimpse of what dominance really was, and that drove them in the 85 season to become truly great.
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6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Vegas has him at like 3600 yard's or something as his over under. I also think if you are saying those are the high probability yet those are 6th best all-time that probably says that isn't "High Probability". Do I think he is capable, certainly, I also think there is a large number of really talented #1 overall picks who had their fair share of struggles in their first year, as that adjustment takes time.
for sure, it will be bumpy. I still think Williams will put up numbers, but will he lose a game or two by being baited at a critical point into a turnover? Could well be.
So I expect evidence of greatness, some rookie mistakes, and some adversity. How that shakes out into wins and losses I dunno, but what it portends for the future should be clear. -
adam, that all seems about right to me too
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I just like that not EVERYTHING is an opinion
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7 minutes ago, adam said:
Seeing what Shedeur Sanders is doing, I really can't believe all the BS that came out about Williams before the draft. Most of it was bogus and media generated. I am glad Poles didn't waver. Also, remember all the talk about Carl Williams. Have you seen even a single quote or interview with him this offseason? Compare that to Lavar Ball. Again, another nothing burger.
This kid is legit and the real deal. Will he have bad games, sure, rookie issues, absolutely, but he is still going to be really good, if not great. No one cared when the Bears drafted Trubisky, actually, we were ridiculed from day 1. Not many people cared about Fields being the 4th QB taken, and outside of his houdini acts, he was never a big threat in the passing game. However, this time, it is different, other team's fanbases are in full denial/cope mode, and I am here for it.
This is going to be a fun and magical season, I can't wait for Week 1.
truth! and this season is just the warm up band. The 2025 season we should be bona fide super bowl contenders.
With this roster we can climb the mountain to become a top 5 team, and even get to the super bowl. The real test will be what it takes to overcome and defeat Kansas City. It might take a minute, like the Bulls getting past the Pistons.
I could imagine losing a super bowl to KC before going on a run of multiple championships. -
31 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
This has my inner demons cringing. Poles better have hit on the center and OG positions. Otherwise that fourth round weapon he drafted will be an anchor around his neck. Christian Mahogany and Beaux Limmer were there too at least add bodies to the equation. Like I said earlier, was he thinking he was the smartest guy in the room or was he that? The difference makes all the difference. Damn, I hope he's right, this time.
it's a good point, but any GM will have their hits and misses. The questions within their control are how quickly they admit they missed on the misses and whether they are able to solve the problem quickly with another solution.
I definitely have hope that one of the two center options will be good, but I don't need Poles to hit 100% for us to be successful.
It's just extra bad if you keep failing at the same position for sure.
Still there is reason to believe one of the two at least will be decent, and perhaps Connor is waiting in the wings.
Or a trade deadline solution. -
6 hours ago, adam said:
This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed.
that made me happy
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I think the Bears defense in total was top 5 for the last 12 weeks of the season, i.e. once we got Sweat in there.
Doesn't mean they will be top 5 next year, or that they will dominate the good teams, but I can see why there is reason to hope they will? -
adam, cool and interesting analysis as always. Thanks for that.
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1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Wow - I had no idea. I was thinking they were like a d2 school.
me too! never heard of them! I googled it and found that link. Crazy.
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1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
James Madison is a top 25 team?
who knew?
https://jmusports.com/news/2023/11/12/football-jmu-rises-to-18-in-ap-top-25.aspx -
We should pick up Connor Williams on a deal with a 3 year contract as our option next year. Let him heal and see where he is in October.
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15 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
...and yet I'd bet he finds work in the NFL for the next 5 years.
thats how it goes when you have a better than average roster!
I couldnt believe Leno got paid too. There is a lot of bad football out there, and we used to be a big part of it. -
1 hour ago, adam said:
With $3.1M cap savings and the drafting of Amegajie, Borom seems like the odd man out. Gaining over $3M in cap space would put the Bears back in the top 10 for cap space (currently 12th) which would allow them to bring in another DT and DE with room to spare.
Other roster casualties from my perspective are: Robinson, Gill, and possibly Homer and/or Velus. The last two will be ST dependent.
yup. it's a deep plan and it keeps unfolding with permutations we (or at least I) couldnt see until we came up on them. Poles is a real pro.
Roster Comparison - Post Draft
in Bearstalk
Posted
Oh, I'm not putting a ceiling. I agree with you if things go a certain way, this team could be a super bowl level.team in December. I'm just not expecting that.
I think the real window opens in 2025. But it's not because we need more players. Most of the big names on that 2025 superbowl contending squad are on the team right now. It's more a matter of them having a minute to gel.
Also, I was talking about getting past Mahomes and being the top team in the league. I dont see that as likely this first year.
But I am thinking that this group of players could be that soon, so if they find their rhythm right away, and gel, anything is possible.
I dont think this is a lack of optimism. I feel REALLY good about this group. It's more like I realize how tall the mountain they have to climb is, and i think that journey usually comes in stages of improvement. You get to the point where you routinely beat the #8 and #7 team int he league and everyone below, and then you end up in a playoff game with someone really good, or in a SB against KC and Mahomes, and then it usually takes a defeat to show you exactly how far down inside youre going to have to reach. It's not a slight at our roster at ALL. It's more of an understanding of the process of becoming a champion has levels to it, and experience can't be sidestepped.
But if theyre playing well at the end of the year and get into the playoffs, they sure do have weapons. I wouldnt be giving up hope on ANYTHING at that point.