BearFan PHX

I can understand this, but this is his last year. Unless we are planning on paying him a big contract, then he walks next year for nothing. it might be nice to get something for him.

Because this is his last year, so unless youre gonna sign him to a big contract, better to let him go this last year and get something for him, even if it's a 5th rounder. Plus, you bank on the idea that his replacement is a better player than he is, and he is STILL so slow off the ball, and that is not what DA wants from the DLine. If you could keep 300 players, then i get it - why lose something if you dont have to, but the reason is because Dexter is taking up a spot that someone else could have an potentially do better with.

Right that's what i was saying. They will take that $15M owed next year and restructure it out and fold it into a 3 year deal at $6M a year or something. And thats the same deal they will get if we cut him anyway. So does a team want to spend a 6th rounder to be sure they get the exclusive negotiating rights? If there's more than one team that would take him at $6M a year, then someone might want to trade to make sure they get him. But he's gonna get between $6M and $8M a year next year from someone.

I think this was always going to be the outcome, and stupid politicians and team Presidents need to do the whole dance for God knows what reason. It's so stupid, but yeah, I think that's where we will end up.

For sure, even if we take a QB in the 6th round or something too.

he's probably not worth a 2nd, but he is worth something to us as well as a backup, so if you want him a year early you gotta pay a premium, that's why the 2nd. Next year, we would take a 3rd, but right now, I think we keep him another year and take the 3rd next year if thats all thats being offered. Also, if you think he's your starting QB, maybe you do think he's worth a 2nd if you really believe in him over other options?

I think the idea is that they would pay a 6th rounder to make sure they could sign him and not have someone else get him. Your point about the salary is a fair one. On the surface, the team trading would have to take on his contract, with $15M this year. But of course they wouldnt be trading him for one year OR wanting to pay that, so they will sign him to a new deal instead. I'm no cap expert, but i think as long as his new deal totals the $15M he is due or more across the life of it, they can do it. Maybe with Edmunds agreement they can just ignore it, I dunno. But I expect he'ill get a deal of at least 2 years, and the total value of the deal will exceed $15M so it can be a restructure to get him to a more reasonable number?

I also think that Caleb will leave $10M/yr on the table the way his idol Tom Brady did.

Right, getting him a year early should cost something like a 2nd. Maybe more. Starting QBs don't grow on trees, and if you're paying a 2nd, you think he's a starter. If teams feel he isn't worth it, then they can wait until next year. If they believe in him, then they should pay.

Let them bid, and with 2 years to go on his deal, that's not gonna be cheap.

I wont argue the offsetting sales and entertainment taxes collected, it sounds like you have a political point of view on it, so I'll just respect you and not argue that. I'm no tax expert, that's for sure. One thing I DO know is that out of all of professional sports, the team that pays the most property taxes for their stadium each year is the LA Rams, and they pay $9 Million annually. Under current Illinois law, the Bears would be expected to pay $100 to $200 Million in property taxes each year from the stadium they plan to build in Arlington Heights. That's insane, and obviously not reasonable. If the Bears have to move to avoid that, I think people can understand it. However, I don't believe that is the final word at all. I think Illinois will lower that to something more reasonable in line with all the other sports stadiums around the country. I still expect the Bears to end up in Arlington Heights, but they won't be paying $100 Million or even $20 Million a year in property taxes.

Every single sports stadium is taxed WAY less than the going rate for property tax? Why? Because it generates sales and entertainment taxes for the state far in excess of what a hotel on that land would. Its not corporate welfare, its an investment for the state that pays itself back and then some. I dont begrudge you your feelings about this, you have every right to them, and like I said, i think all of this is all really just leverage to get it right for Arlington Heights. But if they do move to Hammond (they wont) it wouldnt be the end of the world, or anything like the Browns situation. I cited the Jets and Giants as an example of having a stadium nearby in another state but still using the original state's name, that's all.

I hope the Bear stay in Illinois. I expect they will land in Arlington Heights after all of this. But if they move to Hammond, the new stadium will be significantly closer to Soldier Field than the Arlington Heights location is. I dont see this at all like the Browns, more like how the Giants and Jets play in New Jersey. But most of all, the threat of Indiana must be real in order to GET to Arlington Heights.

I agree with both of you that an impact DT is critical, and one is more likely to be found at pick #25 than an impact edge player probably will be. And of course all of this subject to change depending on who we bring in in free agency. Although we could definitely sign a FA DT and draft one in the first round too.

plus we already have two guards waiting in the wings in McFadden and Newman.

So first off, after 2027, Bagent is a free agent, and he's 100% going to a team where he can start. It's not a matter of whether we can afford him, we surely cant afford to pay him starter money, even low starter money. So he is definitely gone after 2027. If Bagent goes this year, next year or in 2028, we are going to want to find a kid to develop. Maybe even this year, in like round 5 or something. Keenum can be the QB2, but we will need his replacement. And a QB2 always seems like it doesnt matter untl your QB goes down for four weeks. You want to be able to stay in the playoff hunt during that time, so you really do want a good 2nd stringer. I would look at a 2nd or a 3rd going into 2027. But to take him now, it has to be a 1st rounder for me. Maybe a 2nd and a 4th or something like that. If a team thinks he's a starter for them, then they gotta pay something to get him, especially a year early like this. Otherwise, Id rather keep him this year. next year is a different story because hell be in his last year, so you want to get something for him before he walks.

no, youre right about this, Edmunds was terrible for us. Often in the wrong gap, losing guys in coverage. He's got elite traits, but he isnt much of a football player.

I think you have to back into this. I'd start here: Bagent is under contract for the next two years. He's probably the best backup in the league. If Caleb gets hurt, Bagent can keep the season going until Caleb returns. That's worth a lot to us. Bagent will also want a chance to start somewhere, so you can assume that he will leave us after the 2027 season. So the first question is whether we'd keep him for 2027, or trade him to get some value. I think either makes sense, but I think trading him then is a good likelihood, rather than letting him walk after 2027 for nothing. So now the question is, would you let him go this year, a year early? If the price is right of course he is on the table. None of us would argue with trading him for 3 first rounders (which would never happen), for example, so it's not that he isnt tradeable, but what matters is the price. I dont see us letting him go for a 3rd rounder. He is worth too much to us, especially a year early. I think the floor that we might consider is a 2nd rounder, and honestly, given the importance of the position, his skills (he might be the 20th or 25th best QB in the league?) and the fact that it's a year early means that we should probably be looking for a first rounder if we are going to move him this year. That might seem a bit steep, but he is worth a lot to us too. If someone wants to trade us a first rounder this year for him, Id listen, otherwise Im waiting for 2027 to entertain 2nd and 3rd round picks as offers.

yeah it's really a no brainer. The question is, will anyone trade for him? He'd have to pre-agree to a smaller deal, and multiple teams would need to be interested. I still think the price would be extremely low, like a 6th or a 7th, but that's the only possible thing standing in the way of cutting him right now. I guess if you cut him, it could figure into compensatory picks for 2027, but this is all nit picking. We're gonna just cut him soon because he's not good, and we gain $15M on the cap. There's no mystery LOL

Totally agree. I mean, he'll sign SOMEWHERE for a LOT less, but I don't imagine anyone is gonna trade for him, or pay him much either.

I think Tremaine Edmunds is going to get cut soon. Whether we cut him or trade him, whether before or after June 1st, the result is the same. We will open up $15M in Salary Cap space. Of course I'd rather get something for him, even a 7th rounder, but if a team trades for him, they'll be on the hook for the $15M this year, and I don't see anyone paying him that much. It's possible if two (or more) teams want him AND can restructure him in a longer term deal to something more appropriate, then maybe we could get some value in trade, but I think it's much more likely that teams will just wait for us to cut him. There's no real benefit in waiting, and we will want that cap space when the league year starts in a few weeks, so I think it's predictable that he'll be cut soon. I don't claim any inside info reports from media sources or anything like that, but all those facts just kinda line up to an outcome?

outstanding

Cutting or trading Dexter gets you $1.6M in cap space. But like you say, this is his last year. If you can trade him and get something, great. But unless there is a defensive line coach pounding on the table for another year to unlock Dexter, I think you might even just let him go for the $1.6M, especially if you're restocking that room like I'll bet we are. All in all, I think theres gonna be a lot of changes on the defense. Possibly three new starters on the DL, at least one new LB, and at least one new S. Thats half the Defense, and it could be more. Another CB maybe, another LB, who knows. If you cut Sweat you gain $6.9M of cap space. If you trade him, it's $17M. Doubt anyone wants to pay him $17M, but I'm just putting it out there, even just cutting him, in case we do sign a premiere Edge rusher. I mean, i think we will keep him, but I'm just putting the cap numbers out there.

I like all of this. I wonder about Turner. hes going to be an interesting guy in the mix. I wonder if the coaches can really depend on him enough that it would affect their draft plans. I kind of doubt it. I think youre right they could get a free agent DT, and/or double up on the position in the draft, and then throw Turner and Dexter in there too. Youd find a rotation in there somewhere for sure. I wish we could trade Grady Jarrett too, but like Dayo, it costs $2M more to cut him before June 1st. If you cut him after June 1st, you gain $2M, but too late. But if we could find a trade partner, wed gain $11M of cap space, but who wants to pay that guy $11M this year?

I'd cut him on production too, but cap wise there is an issue. If you cut him before June 1st, you actually lose $1.5M of cap space. It's cheaper to keep him and just not dress him. If you cut him after June 1st, you get $16M in cap room, which is awesome, but you cant have that money during free agency and the draft, so it doesn't help with free agent signings. We might have to do this anyway. Maybe we can use that money to get back a void year on someone after June 1st, but I dunno if you can do that twice in the same off season to the same player? If we could TRADE him though, then we'd open up $11.5M in space. But someone would have to want to pay him that $11.5M somewhere else, and I dunno if anyone does. So whatever we do with him, we can't use the cap space it would bring when we need it, unless we find a trade partner. Maybe a player swap where we take on another player that needs a change of scenery and also brings a $12M cap number, so like a player swap? It wouldnt give cap relief, but it would change Dayp into a different toad, maybe one our coaches think they can rehabilitate?