defiantgiant

That isn't a function of strength in Madden, it's a function of the stamina and injury ratings. Forte's got 99 stamina and 95 injury, which he deserves, since he put the offense on his back last year and was really only nicked up in the last 2 games. One thing that should definitely be higher is his Carrying stat: he's at an 89. Carrying defines how likely a running back is to fumble, and you could make the argument that there's only one guy in the league better in that regard than Forte. Forte carried 316 times and only fumbled once. Nobody else in the league with over 300 carries had fewer than 3 fumbles. Madden superstar Adrian Peterson had a whopping 9 fumbles. The one guy who's probably better than Forte at protecting the ball is Ladanian Tomlinson, who carried 292 times and did not fumble. I'm willing to bet his Carrying rating is MUCH higher than 89. Overall, I'm pretty happy with Forte's rating this year - he's rated significantly higher than guys like Ryan Grant (85) and Kevin Smith (80) and just below the really big-name guys. I think he probably deserves a 90 or a 91, but maybe he'll get updated midseason if he performs like he did last year.

Here they are. Remember that they're downgrading almost everybody in the league pretty drastically. The goal is to eliminate the problem in previous Maddens where every halfway-decent starter had to be at least in the high 80s. This year the range of ratings for starters is going to be something more like 70-100, instead of 85- or 90-100.

Anyway, Seifert's piece is on Cutler vs. Rodgers as the best QB in the NFC North, but Cutler vs. Orton is a no-brainer. Which guy would you want playing for you in the fourth quarter: Orton: 64/112 (57.1%) for 670 yards (6.0 YPA) 2 TDs, 4 Interceptions, 2 sacks - 65.7 passer rating Cutler: 100/167 (59.9%) for 1,212 yards (7.3 YPA) 11 TDs, 4 Interceptions, 5 sacks - 94.2 passer rating I don't think I'm ready to say Cutler's better than Rodgers or vice versa - they're both relatively young and both have been very, very impressive thus far. But I'll go right ahead and say that Cutler's indisputably an upgrade over Orton if you're trying to close out a game. It's not even close.

From Kevin Seifert's NFC North blog: "For the purposes of this feature, however, we need to separate [Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers]. Beyond a team's final record, how can you judge whether a quarterback is a "winner?" One way is to analyze his performance in the fourth quarter, when many NFL games are decided. By this measure, at least, Cutler came out ahead in a 2008 comparison. Cutler ranked seventh among regular NFL starters last season with a 94.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter, according to STATS Inc. Rodgers ranked No. 13 at 87.8. For context, take a look at the sampling of fourth-quarter ratings below: Sampling of Fourth-quarter QB Performances, 2008 *Rank Player Team Att. Comp Pct. Yds. TD INT Sack Rating 1 Tony Romo Dallas 109 69 63.3 946 9 1 5 114.7 5 Jake Delhomme Carolina 98 65 66.3 811 3 1 6 97.8 7 Jay Cutler Denver 167 100 59.9 1,212 11 4 5 94.2 10 Donovan McNabb Philadelphia 122 73 59.8 727 6 0 4 93.2 13 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay 143 87 60.8 1,063 8 5 9 87.8 14 Peyton Manning Indianapolis 150 95 63.3 988 6 3 4 87.3 *Limited to regular starters Source: STATS Inc. Rodgers' statistics dropped across the board when you compare them to his overall numbers in 2008, and he also took nine fourth-quarter sacks. Cutler, meanwhile, improved his touchdown-interception ratio substantially in the fourth quarter. Statistically, at least, you could make the argument that Cutler enhanced his performance during the most important part of the game last season."

There's been a whole series of these rankings from the Sporting News, and every single one of them is a joke. Not only are Brad Childress and Dick Jauron ranked above Lovie Smith, but Andy Reid and Jeff Fisher are both apparently better than Mike Tomlin, despite the fact that neither of them have managed to win a Super Bowl. I'm just going to break down some of TSN's rankings by position. Check this out - Receivers: They have Lee Evans over Calvin Johnson. Let that soak in for a second. In 2008, Lee Evans ranked 19th in the NFL in receiving yards. Johnson ranked 5th. Lee Evans had a good quarterback and very good running backs to lean on. Calvin Johnson was on the Lions. Yet Evans is #8 on their list and Johnson is #11. Calvin Johnson, the league's 5th leading receiver (who also had the league's worst surrounding cast) doesn't even make the top 10 on their list. Their rationale? "Until the Lions improve, Johnson will still be a step below the top receivers." The Lions were nearly the worst team in history last season, and Johnson still beat the hell out of almost every receiver they rank above him. If he didn't need a good team to perform in 2008, why does he suddenly need one in 2009? Also, according to TSN, Roy Williams is better than Roddy White and Chad Ocho Cinco is better than Brandon Marshall. Just chew on that for a minute. Running backs: Michael Turner and Deangelo Williams were 2nd and 3rd in the league in rushing yards. They're ranked #7 and #14 on TSN's list of RBs. Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, and Frank Gore were 12th, 11th, and 13th in rushing, respectively. Where do they rank on TSN's list? They're #2, #3, and #5. That's ridiculous. Williams had better per-carry performance than any of them, and Turner was better than any of them except Jacobs. Williams beat each one of Jackson-Jacobs-Gore by 500 yards, and Turner beat them all by more than 600. You can't make the argument that Williams benefited from running in a platoon or behind a great o-line, because Jacobs benefited from those factors even more and produced drastically less, not to mention that Turner didn't have either factor going for him. You can't make the argument that Williams and Turner aren't receiving threats, because neither is Jacobs. Yet somehow his 1,089 yards get him ranked #3 and they don't even make the top 5. Quarterbacks: The real gem. Philip Rivers led the league in passer rating, threw for over 4000 yards, and tied with Drew Brees for the most passing touchdowns while throwing only 11 interceptions to Brees' 17. He doesn't even make the top 5 on TSN's list. Aaron Rodgers was 4th in passing yards, 4th in touchdowns, and 6th in passer rating, despite 2008 being his first season as a starter and despite playing part of it with a badly sprained throwing shoulder. TSN has him at #14 on their list. Chad Pennington, you ask? He was just 1st in the NFL in completion percentage and 2nd in passer rating, plus he managed to finish 9th in yards and 12th in TDs despite throwing to scrubs in a very conservative, run-heavy offense. He's 19th on their list. Who's 4 spots ahead of him? Jake Delhomme, who threw for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, and a sub-60% completion rate. Let's put Pennington and Delhomme side-by-side: Pennington: 321/476 (67.4%) for 3653 yards, 19 TDs, 7 Ints, 97.4 passer rating Delhomme: 246/414 (59.4%) for 3288 yards, 15 TDs, 12 Ints, 84.7 passer rating. ...yet somehow they think Delhomme is the better QB. Remember that he gets to throw the ball to Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, compared to Pennington's corps of Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, and Ted Ginn Jr. And that Delhomme had Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to keep defenses honest, where Pennington had Ronnie Brown and a 31-year-old Ricky Williams. Anyway, I don't think anybody, David Haugh included, should put too much stock in these rankings. TSN was either going solely on name recognition or they were throwing darts at the wall.

Yeah, he was listed at 5'11" going into the Combine, but he measured in at 6 feet. And he definitely looks bigger at 185 pounds than most guys that light. There was a photo of Danieal Manning chasing him down in OTAs, and they look about the same size, despite Manning having 15 pounds on him.

Yeah, he's not the player they need at all. How many times toward the end of his time in Green Bay did we watch him single-handedly lose a game? And it's not like they're going to hire a 39-year-old famously uncoachable gunslinger and retrain him to be a reliable caretaker-type QB. He'd step right in and start throwing picks, just like he's done for the past several seasons. Minnesota's got a stifling run defense, Jared Allen rushing the passer, and the best running back in the league, but their best receiver has never broken 1000 yards in his career. They're not a big-play team: they're built to protect a lead, run out the clock, and methodically kill the opposing teams' drives. The WORST thing you could do on a team like that is hire a guy who's averaged 21 picks a season over the last four years.

It's scary to think how good the Vikings could be if they had even a halfway-decent quarterback. I know people were talking about them going after Jay Cutler - honestly, if they even had a guy like a Jason Campbell or a circa-2007 Derek Anderson, just a middle-of-the-pack guy, I think they'd be a very tough team to beat. Really, Campbell would be the ideal quarterback for them: he takes care of the football, doesn't commit turnovers, and gets decent production despite throwing to one big-play receiver and not much else. Fortunately, Favre, Rosenfels, and Tarvaris Jackson are not going to do any of those things.

I think it'll be interesting to see how Cutler and Orton do with their new receiving crews. Orton definitely made Rashied Davis and Brandon Lloyd look better than they were, and Davis and Lloyd are a far cry from Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. I'm trying not to hold out hope that Cutler will turn our passing game into a bona fide threat in his first year, but look at Eddie Royal's numbers from college next to his numbers his rookie year (rookie stats in bold) in the NFL: 2004: 28 catches for 470 yards and 3 TDs 2005: 27 catches for 315 yards and 2 TDs 2006: 31 catches for 497 yards and 3 TDs 2007: 33 catches for 496 yards and 4 TDs 2008: 91 catches for 980 yards and 5 TDs Not many rookie receivers break out like Royal did, but even fewer do so having never broken 500 yards in any previous season. I have to think a lot of that was due to Cutler. Royal's scouting reports all describe him as basically Devin Hester-lite: great speed, great value as a return man, but with iffy hands and undeveloped route-running. I don't think anyone thought he would put up close to a thousand yards receiving as a rookie. We'll see how it plays out next season, but if the magic ingredient for Royal really was having Jay Cutler under center, I don't see any reason to think he couldn't pull the same trick with the actual Devin Hester. If Cutler can get Hester the ball 91 times and Hester's per-catch numbers stay consistent, he'd end 2009 with 1186 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns. I know everybody's saying Hester isn't Brandon Marshall, and that's totally true, but I don't see any reason why he couldn't be Eddie Royal.

Also, Sports Illustrated is reporting that Favre had biceps surgery. The details: - The surgery was an arthroscopic procedure to complete the partial tear in his biceps tendon. - Average recovery time is four to six weeks. - The procedure was completed 10-12 days ago. Basically, this would put him out for training camp if he were to sign with the Vikings, but in theory he'd be full-go by the time the season starts. Honestly, I'm all for him signing with the Vikings: if Lovie's demonstrated one thing in his tenure as Chicago's head coach, it's that his Bears teams reliably stomp Brett Favre. Considering that Favre's been wearing down badly at season's end for the last several years and that the Bears play the Vikings in weeks 12 and 16, I'd put money on the Bears sweeping the Vikes if they sign Favre.

I do hope that Rideau can contribute this season, even if it's just in red-zone packages. Looking at the OTA highlight reel, though, I only see one catch made by #84. Obviously a highlight video isn't an ideal way to gauge how a guy's doing, but I hope for his sake that some of his receptions got left on the cutting room floor. One guy who absolutely does stand out in this video is Johnny Knox. I know he's running against the second-team defensive backs, but he looked practically uncoverable out there and he made some VERY smooth catches. He seems like he has a complete repertoire, too: I saw him pull passes in over his shoulder, go up and high-point the ball, make catches in traffic on what looked like some crossing routes...just from this one video, he looks like he could be the real deal.

For #1, from what's been reported, Plax's defense attorneys haven't been able to get him to agree to the plea deal, because he doesn't want any jail time whatsoever. If that's accurate, they're not going forward because they have a plan to get him acquitted, they're trying to get him to take a plea and he won't do it. For #2, I think that might be the only way he plays this year. If they can get his trial moved and Goodell doesn't suspend him, he'd at least have one more season of playing time before he (probably) goes to jail. If that's the case, the Bears need to move right now. As much as I don't want to see them sandbag Bennett's development any further, there's no comparing him to Plax at this point. With Plax on board for 16 games, I think there's no way this team loses the NFC North.

Yeah, we've got a bunch more size on the line this year. When Beekman eventually takes over for Kreutz down the road, we'll get bigger at center as well. I'm definitely excited about our line play this year after how bad it was in 2008.

Right, if he had taken the plea deal, he'd either be out or close to it, and I'd be all for the Bears trading for him. But, thus far, he's rejected every plea deal that involved ANY jail time (the last one was three months and 1500 hours' community service, if memory serves.) Unless he changes his mind, I doubt very much that we'll be seeing him play in 2009. Well, I agree with half of this. The deal with mandatory sentencing, as far as I'm aware, is that the judge CAN'T exercise his/her discretion in sentencing. Once you're at the sentencing hearing, the judge can't "go against the letter of the law" and recommend a lighter sentence. That's why mandatory minimum sentences are so controversial: they take a critical element of the trial process out of the hands of the judge. If Burress were to be found guilty, the judge would have to give him at least 3 and a half years. He could potentially get out early on parole, but that 3 and a half would be his sentence. I agree with you that Plax seems to be banking on getting acquitted. That's the only way he could potentially get out of this without serving jail time, since he won't take a plea. It's always possible that a jury will acquit him, but it seems like a reasonable jury would determine that he broke the law. We'll see how it plays out, but if he gets convicted, he'll be gone for 2009. He'd almost certainly miss 2010 as well, before he could potentially get paroled. And by the time 2011 rolls around, we could be drafting Julio Jones instead of signing a 34-year-old Plax who's been out of football for two seasons.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I don't think Cutler's maturity is a problem at all. If he can get Devin Hester to 1100 or 1200 yards and a handful of touchdowns, he can act however he feels like. I just think Dungy's probably looking at the two guys in different lights: Vick in terms of whether he's turned around as a person enough to play again in some capacity, and Cutler in terms of whether he's worth betting the farm on like the Bears did. Nobody's going to give up two firsts, a third, and their starting QB for Vick. If he gets to play somewhere, it'll be in a no-risk situation where his team can dump him in a hurry.

Nfo's comments sum up what I'm talking about better than I can. I'm not worried about Pisa getting off blocks, I'm worried about him covering/bringing down ballcarriers. If Pisa's a kinda-rangy 6'1" 225, he's going to have a hard time bringing down Michael Turner, who's 5'9" and change, 245-250. Turner's got a low center of gravity and a huge amount of leg drive - he's going to bowl over a lot of guys his own size, let alone taller, skinner guys who he has 20 or 25 pounds on.

Dungy's comments on Vick are in a very different context. He said himself that he was primarily concerned with Mike Vick as a person, rather than as an athlete. I'm sure that if the Bears had traded for Vick, he'd be fielding some of the same concerns - they need to do their homework on whether he can be mature and lead a team, etc.

I'd love to have Plax if he's able to play in 2009, but there's virtually no chance that he gets off the hook. I've posted this elsewhere before, but here's how his legal situation breaks down: - He's charged with criminal possession of a weapon in the second degree, which consists of carrying a gun without a valid New York carry permit. The charge is just for possession - they're not saying he committed any other crimes using the gun or did anything illegal other than having it on his person without a valid permit. - In New York, that crime carries a mandatory minimum sentence of 3 and a half years. There's no possibility that the judge can exercise leniency in his sentencing: if Plax is guilty, he goes to jail. - Plax has never had a New York carry permit. He had a Florida permit, but that permit was expired and would not have been honored by New York even if it had been valid. He also does not have a carry permit in his home state of New Jersey, and New Jersey likewise does not recognize Florida gun permits. - He indisputably had the gun: a club full of people saw him shoot himself, records from the hospital show he was treated for a gunshot wound, police have the gun and his clothes from that night. At this point, that's all that's required for a conviction and the minimum sentence. There's no way he can claim that he didn't have the gun or that he had a legal permit - that's a 3-1/2 year sentence automatically. What he needs to do is take a plea deal to a lesser charge, but he's reportedly shot down his lawyers' attempts to work out a plea. He apparently thinks he can go to trial and get acquitted, and that's not going to happen. In fact, he might face additional charges if he goes to trial: when the police searched his home, they found another pistol and a rifle, and it's unclear whether he was in legal possession of those weapons. Basically, it looks very much like Plax is going to jail. If he'd taken the plea deal, he would have been in jail for a few months and would have been back in time for the 2009 season. As it stands right now, he'll probably go to jail for several years.

I won't have any concerns if Tinoisamoa adds 10 or 15 pounds, the thing that concerns me is that he said he was comfortable at his current weight. If he stays at 225, I just don't know how he can succeed on the strong side. It's one thing for the SLB to be able to shed a TE who's trying to block him - Pisa could maybe get that done with quickness and technique. But the bulk of his job, especially in the Tampa 2, is going to be coverage and run support, not blitzing. What I'm worried about is whether he can cover and tackle a tight end effectively when he's that small, not to mention whether he can bring down a power running back like Michael Turner, Beanie Wells, or Steven Jackson. He'll see all three of them this season. For reference, look at Pisa standing next to Urlacher and Briggs - he's clearly a LOT smaller than they are. By contrast, look at Hillenmeyer next to those two: Hunter's close to Urlacher's size. Pisa's got much better range than Hillenmeyer, but I worry that there could be a dropoff in effective TE coverage and run support due to his lack of size.

Yeah, you're right, Bullocks is different. He could very well end up a backup. Tinoisamoa should be starting soon, although I'm a little worried about his weight. He reported to the Bears at 225, and he said he feels comfortable at that weight. I just don't know how a guy who's a biscuit bigger than a safety is going to man the strong side successfully. He's giving up 40 pounds to a tight end, to say nothing of a right tackle like Loadholt, who has nearly 120 pounds on him.

Well, he does acknowledge that Cutler's a great passer. I just disagree with him when he implies that being a great quarterback is more about leadership than, y'know, throwing the football. You could be the best leader in the world, but if you're a lousy passer, you're not a good quarterback. Dungy says his problems with Cutler come down to maturity, leadership, and ability to "do things under pressure." As evidence for the first two, he's basically pointing to how Cutler conducted himself in his dispute with the coaching staff in Denver. I really don't think maturity or attitude toward coaches has a thing to do with level of play on the field. Look at Brett Favre: even in his prime years in the mid-nineties, Brett Favre was arguably immature and clashed with his coaches. He was notoriously hard to coach, hated practicing, didn't run the plays that his coaches called, etc. None of that mattered, because he won tons of games for the Packers. I don't think Cutler's problems with McDaniels have a thing to do with whether he can win games for us. As for how Cutler performs under pressure, that depends on what kind of pressure Dungy's talking about. If he's talking about pass pressure, I don't think that holds any water. Orton and Cutler were sacked the same number of times (27) in 2008 and 2007, respectively. If sacks are an adequate measure of pass pressure, then I think it's safe to say the Bears upgraded - here are the two stat lines: Orton (2008) - 27 sacks, completed 272/465 (58.5%) for 2972 yds (6.4 YPA) 18 TDs, 12 Interceptions Cutler (2007) - 27 sacks, completed 297/467 (63.6%) for 3497 yds (7.5 YPA) 20 TDs, 14 Interceptions Cutler completed significantly more of his passes for more yards and more scores under pressure comparable to what Orton was facing. It makes sense: Cutler's much more mobile than Orton, and significantly better at throwing accurately on the run. Cutler definitely makes poor decisions sometimes, but they're vintage Favre bad decisions, not Rex Grossman bad decisions. What I mean is this: when Cutler attempts a throw that he shouldn't, it's generally because he's taking a risk trying to make a big play. Sometimes those risks don't work out for him, but more often they do. When Grossman made bad decisions, it was because he got rattled under pressure and did the wrong thing. I don't think that's the problem with Cutler. He seems to perform fine under pressure, he's just the kind of player who will take a shot and try to make a big play. I'm perfectly OK with that.

Depth and versatility. We've got four guys who can play left tackle now and four others who can play any of the three interior line positions (Kreutz, Beekman, Buenning, and Garza can all play center.) If a guy goes down, we have a ton of flexibility as to who replaces him.

I think you're right. Davis is very poor at split end and flanker, but I'd say he's league-average in the slot. That, combined with his value on special teams (he's legitimately very good on the kick coverage unit) should keep him around for at least another season until Iglesias or Knox proves to be more valuable.

Well, and the Bears have been making just about every FA acquisition start out with the second-team, except for obvious cornerstones like Cutler. Tinoisamoa and Bullocks are both running with the second team, but both should have every opportunity to beat the incumbents (Nick Roach and Kevin Payne, respectively) - Omiyale was the same. He started out on the second team, but it was clear that he was brought in because they thought he could start.

That's reassuring. The Forte thing aside, there was some good news from Wednesday's OTA. Aside from the Cutler-Hester pass that's been mentioned, Cutler hit Olsen over the middle several times, and they generally looked solid. Kevin Jones also reportedly did well: "On a side note, backup Kevin Jones looked extremely good running the ball and appears to have his burst back. His cutbacks were smooth, and his speed and power are clearly evident." Lastly, both Tommie Harris and Marcus Harrison were on the field; considering that both were held out of the last open OTA, that's good news. Harris was still held out of the full-team scrimmage, but that's probably a good precaution to take.