defiantgiant

Watching the video, I'm a lot less worried about Moore's height. That was really a jump-ball from Stafford: Moore was right in step with Massaquoi and had to go up high and fight him for the ball. Massaquoi's a legit 6'2" and has a pretty decent vertical leap (36.5") to boot. If Moore can go up over a guy Massaquoi's size, he's not going to have a problem covering most receivers in the NFL. Maybe don't man him up on Calvin Johnson or anything, but he'll be able to cover most NFL wideouts.

It's an interesting thought. Most fullbacks aren't as tall as Louis is, but then there are guys like Madison Hedgecock (6'3" 266 lbs.) on the Giants. Louis compares pretty favorably to a guy like Hedgecock, from a physical standpoint. They had comparable bench results, Hedgecock putting up 29 reps to Louis' 30. Hedgecock actually ran a slower 40 than Louis (4.87 to Louis' 4.76,) and he was almost 40 pounds lighter than Louis is. Also, the 10-yard split (the first 10 yards of the player's 40) is often considered a more accurate measure of playing speed than the 40. Hedgecock's 10-yard split at the Combine was a 1.73. Louis' was a 1.62. The broad jump and vertical jump, which measure explosiveness, also go to Louis. I should point out, though, that all Louis' times would be at the bottom end of the spectrum for fullbacks at this year's combine. Only 2 of the fullbacks at the Combine this year ran slower 40s than Louis, and none of them had slower 10-yard splits. Tony Fiammetta, for example, ran the 40 in 4.58 with a 1.53 10-yard split. Looking back at Hedgecock's Combine numbers and his performance in the league, it's clear that he's not a rushing threat. He's had 3 carries in 5 years as a pro player. Louis isn't going to be a combo fullback like Fiammetta or like Leonard Weaver; he's not going to carry the ball, but he could be effective as a pure blocking fullback in a power-running system like the Giants run. My one concern is that, as fast as Louis is, he'd need to get faster to be more than an in-line short-yardage blocker. Apparently he's a very effective second-level blocker as a lineman, but unless I'm wrong, his assignment is usually going to be a linebacker or defensive lineman. A fullback is going to occasionally have to pick up defensive backs, and I would guess, at 303 pounds, that Louis would need to shed some weight and increase his agility to do that effectively. His bio says that he added 35-40 pounds in a year and change; maybe he can drop some of that weight back off. If he can go back down to the 270-280 range and get quicker without losing strength, I think he might have a chance at fullback.

I think you're right here. If we're in the red zone throwing the ball and we line Hester and Bennett/Iglesias up on the outside, defenses are going to be able to jam them at the line and focus coverage on Olsen or Clark. We need a tall wideout who can grab a jump ball, in addition to our red zone targets at TE. I still think Brandon Rideau can be that guy, though - he might not be an every-down wideout, but he looked ridiculous inside the 20-yard line last preseason. He should at least get a shot to do that during the regular season.

I agree, Mike Brown is the face of the Bears' defense for me, much more so than Urlacher. I was so glad to see him back on the field for a whole season, flying around and leveling people. I'm still a little shocked that they didn't want to bring him back, if only to tutor the new guys. Still, Moore seems like a guy who'll work hard and live up to his billing. I'm not saying he compares to Mike Brown at all, but after hearing a couple of interviews with him, I won't mind him wearing #30.

I'd be OK with the move, provided that either Vasher or Moore can step up opposite from Tillman. I'm not sure Graham could unseat Bullocks, necessarily, but either Bullocks/Graham or Graham/Bullocks would be better than Bullocks/Bowman. Bowman is just too fragile to be used as a safety - I'm really hoping they move him back to corner. Graham's a better tackler than most of our other corners (aside from Peanut) and might be good enough at it to handle the transition to safety. He'd have to gain at LEAST 10-15 pounds of good weight, though. You just don't see safeties playing under 200 pounds. Ed Reed is the prototypical fast ballhawk-type safety, and even he's at least 200. Really, if Moore can push Vasher and Graham can make the move to FS, I'd be pretty happy with our depth in the secondary. We'd have: Right Corner: Nate Vasher, DJ Moore Free Safety: Josh Bullocks, Corey Graham, Al Afalava Strong Safety: Glenn Earl, Craig Steltz, Kevin Payne (unless he learns to wrap up properly) Left Corner: Peanut Tillman, Zack Bowman Nickel: Danieal Manning Dime: Trumaine McBride ...that's a pretty decent secondary.

Combine times were all slow this year, for whatever reason. Probably the new surface, but every position seemed to average like a tenth slower than last year. You had guys like Maclin, who was never caught from behind a single time in college, running like a 4.49. The big issue with Pegues isn't going to be his speed or even his character, it's his size. The Bears are looking for size at safety, since they've had problems with durability at that spot. Pegues is all of 5'10" 199 - he'd need to put on 10 pounds of muscle to even get up to Mike Brown's size, and Brown was part of the problem as far as injuries go. Still, given the shape we're in at free safety, I'd have no problem with at least trying Pegues out (along with giving Afalava a shot at FS.) If he can step up and the Bears think he can add enough weight, we definitely need help there.

I hate Davis' drops, but I think you're right, he'll stay as a slot receiver until Bennett or Iglesias beats him out, which should happen sometime in the 2009 season. I'd be OK with keeping 6 receivers, if only so we could have Rideau on the roster. He looked like a legitimate red-zone target in preseason last year, and I think we need at least one wideout who can win a jump ball in the endzone. I'd like to see: Bennett Hester Davis Iglesias Rideau Knox/Kinder (if Kinder really steps it up, maybe he beats Knox out for the sixth receiver spot. Loser goes to the practice squad, then gets activated when we cut Davis.)

Per the Bears' website, Earl Bennett is changing his number from 85 to 80. Apparently he wanted to go back to his college number (10) but the NFL won't let you switch from an 80-89 number to a 10-19 number. Seems like a dumb rule to me. However, he's now got 80, Berrian's old number. The superstitious part of me thinks that could be a good thing. The article also lists the new rookies' numbers, and there are a couple of other familiar ones: Earl Bennett: 80 (Bernard Berrian) Al Afalava: 46 (Chris Harris, Doug Plank) Mike Rivera: 59 (Rosevelt Colvin, Ron Rivera) Derek Kinder: 83 (Willie Gault) D.J. Moore: 30 (Mike Brown) ...then again, Rashied Davis has Bobby Engram's old number, so maybe it doesn't mean anything.

Yeah, he did use a lot of cut blocks, but they were usually in open space. That makes sense: if you're a pure blocking FB trying to get a block on a DB or outside linebacker, you're not necessarily going to be able to get a hand on him. It's probably a safer move to throw the cut block there. You can see that on inside runs he usually latches on with his hands and just shoves the defender out of the hole. I think Ta'ufo'ou and Fenroy could both be really nice pickups. I like the Chase Patton signing, too. Missouri's coaches said he threw a prettier deep ball than Chase Daniel - really the only knock on him is that he only throws well with his feet set, which makes him less than ideal for Missouri's spread. A rollout, scrambling passer like Daniel is better for their system, but Patton could easily be the better pro QB. He could have a real shot to beat out Basanez and Hanie as Cutler's backup.

I like him as a guy to push Wolfe for his roster spot: similar frame and quickness, but about 20 pounds heavier with a lot more lower-body strength. Interesting statistic: out of his 808 rushes in college, 48 went for TDs, so he was tackled on 760...it took at least two guys to bring him down on 338 of those 760 runs. Say what you want about Garrett Wolfe's speed, but he ALWAYS seems to go down on the first hit. If we're going to carry a scatback on the roster, I'd rather have it be a guy who can break a tackle or two. I really like Ta'ufo'ou as a guy to potentially replace Jason McKie - we could use a better blocking FB, and Ta'ufo'ou puts some nasty hits on defenders. EDIT: I just realized that Ta'ufo'ou was the lead blocker for Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, and now Jahvid Best. The best measure of a blocking fullback is the level of success his running backs enjoy (like Lorenzo Neal blocking for a 1000-yard rusher every season of his career) and by that metric, this guy looks seriously good. He produced back-to-back 1,500-yard rushers, and Cal's running backs averaged 7.1 YPC over the 4 years that he was their FB. I hope the Bears give him a real shot to compete with McKie: he could open some huge running lanes for Forte.

Apparently he's met with the Dolphins 4 times already, and the Vikings are seriously considering taking him in the first round. He was off my board even prior to the drug test, so I can't say I'll be sad if he's gone before the Bears pick.

The point is this: trading Urlacher allows you to hold onto your 2nd-round pick, except that (by your logic) you then have to spend that pick getting a replacement for Urlacher. Moreover, given the relatively poor crop of 4-3 middle linebackers this year, that replacement is going to be a LOT worse than Urlacher. So you effectively lose both the 2nd and the late-rounder in the trade, and you downgrade from Urlacher to Darry Beckwith or somebody. I'll pass. Now, if we could send just the 2nd and a conditional pick next year, I'd be all over it.

Yeah, I didn't see that he thinks they're targeting him at #49. That's way too early, unless there's an unprecedented run on wide receivers. If literally 10-12 wideouts are gone by the time we pick in the 2nd, maybe Wallace would be an OK pick.

Oh man, please trade for Boldin. Usually I try not to get my hopes up about the Bears making big offseason moves (pre-Cutler, anyway) but if they can get Boldin for a 2nd and a conditional pick next year, they ABSOLUTELY need to do it. Trade for him, pay him. Not just because he's Anquan Boldin, but because he's the only starting-caliber receiver available for trade, unless you think the Browns' FO is lying when they say they won't move Ocho Cinco.

Our 2001 1st was David Terrell, so yes. In a heartbeat.

So I've tried to put together one last mock, using (for the most part) players the Bears have been linked to in the past few weeks. I used CBS Sports' rankings as a rough guide for where each prospect will be available, and I've linked each guy to his profile on their site, except for Mike Mitchell, who doesn't have one. All right, enough said, here's what I'd like to see on draft weekend: 2.49) Juaquin Iglesias - WR - Oklahoma Simply catches everything thrown to him. Hands are almost on par with Robiskie/Nicks. Fast enough to get separation, but still goes 6'1" 210 lbs. Projects well to either a #2 or slot receiver, giving the Bears some flexibility if Bennett emerges as the #2. Plus, we know Lovie likes Sooners. 3.99) Darcel McBath - FS - Texas Tech Great instincts and coverage skills, good build, real field general, somewhat iffy hitting ability, but a very reliable tackler. A good centerfielder-type safety who is a leader on defense. Angelo had some good things to say about the guy, if I remember right. Had to play against Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree every week in practice, so he's had a lot of experience covering blue-chip receivers. 4.119) Roy Miller - DT - Texas Prototype 4-3 nose guard. Limited pass-rush ability, but will command double-teams and close down running lanes. Plays hard until the whistle. The Bears haven't had a run-stuffing nose guard since Tank Johnson left, and Dusty Dvoracek was poor against the run even when healthy. The inability of the front 4 to stop the run was just as responsible as the awful pass rush for the fact that the Bears played all their linebackers in the box last season. Miller should be able to split time with Anthony Adams at first, then take over the spot full-time. 5.140) Macho Harris - CB - Virginia Tech Shutdown corner at Virginia Tech, but has been knocked down many teams' draft boards for his lack of straight-line speed. Still, his excellent agility and coverage instincts should make him an ideal Cover-2 corner. Had 15 picks for 278 yards in college, making him 3rd all-time in the ACC. Tied with Alphonso Smith for the ACC all-time record of 4 interceptions returned for touchdowns. Due to injuries to other players, Harris at various times in 2007 and 2008 played both corner spots, free safety, punt returner, kick returner, wide receiver, slot receiver, and tailback. 5.154) Cornelius Lewis - OT/OG - Tennessee State Angelo pointed out that the Bears are looking for tackles who can play guard in this draft, and Lewis is exactly that. He's played both the left and right tackle spots at Tennessee State, but could be dominant as an interior lineman. Marginal feet and agility for the tackle position, but projects (at a minimum) to be a nasty, road-grading RG. Might have the best hand punch in the entire draft. Has a very good anchor and won't be walked backward into the QB. Not a great second-level blocker and probably can't mirror well enough to stay at left tackle, but could take over for Garza at right guard and potentially replace Shaffer at right tackle down the line. 6.190) Mike Mitchell - SS - Ohio Nicknamed "The Missile" at Ohio. Has prototype size (6'0", 220 lbs.) and excellent range for a strong safety. Runs 4.45 in the 40, and might have the coverage ability to compete at free safety. At a minimum, should be an excellent special teamer and push Payne/Steltz for the SS spot. 7.246) Pierre Walters - DE - Eastern Illinois Raw developmental prospect with good size (6'4" 269 lbs.) and plenty of upside, as he's still learning pass-rush moves. Played both end spots in college, probably a left end in the NFL at this point, as he's more of a power/bull rusher than an edge rusher. Great use of leverage and good, violent handfighting, even at this stage in his development. Already a pretty good run-stopper, could easily emerge as a quality pass-rusher if he continues to work on spin and swim moves to go with his stack-and-shed and bull-rush. Would be an excellent project for Rod Marinelli. 7.251) Robert Francois - OLB - Boston College Overshadowed by the surrounding defensive talent at BC (B.J. Raji, Ron Brace, Mark Herzlich, and Brian Toal, among others) but is a good prospect in his own right. Nice measurables at 6'3", 243 lbs. and a 4.58 forty. Standout on special teams at BC and played very well when Toal went down with an injury. Only had 14 starts at OLB, but could be developed by Babich, now that he's back to coaching linebackers. On special teams, could potentially provide a legitimate replacement for Brendon Ayanbadejo, who the Bears have been missing badly since he went to Baltimore. UDFA) Jason Chery - WR - Louisiana-Lafayette Small-school receiver the Bears are known to be interested in. Smallish reciever (5'10" 189 lbs.) but has good quickness and hands. Should be a valuable contributor on special teams, which will help him win a roster spot. In my own estimation, this would be a pretty good draft. The thing it's most obviously lacking is an immediate-impact pass-rusher, but Angelo's admitted that it's very difficult to draft a guy at that position who will break out his first year, even in the first round. Look at Chris Long on the Rams, for example. I think the Bears are counting on Marinelli to improve the pass rush in 2009, and Walters is a good developmental prospect for the future. Anyway, that's my last mock before the draft tomorrow. What do you guys think?

I think Angelo won't come out and say it, but it sounds like he's really soured on first-round picks. Looking at his track record, I can't blame him. Some of them were stupid picks on his part (Michael Haynes should never have even been in the first-round conversation) but some of them were guys who were legitimately excellent in college, and then just completely flopped (see Grossman, Benson, Chris Williams so far.) I think it's hard to blame him for opting out of the uncertainty of a first-round rookie in favor of Jay Cutler. All his talent aside, Cutler's also way more of a known quantity than any 1st-round pick.

I like this draft from round 4 onward, but it would be insane for the Bears to spend their 3rd on a linebacker, and Johnson is like a less-talented, rawer version of Vernon Gholston. He's going to be a massive bust for whoever's dumb enough to take him.

If Nicks, Britt, and Robiskie are all gone (as they probably will be) then my next choice would absolutely be Iglesias. He's fast enough, great at getting separation, runs nice routes (although he's better on short-to-intermediate patterns than deep ones) and the guy catches EVERYTHING. Plus, he has experience as a slot receiver and projects to the slot about as well as to a split end, so if Bennett pans out, we have another potential use for Iglesias.

Angelo and Lovie both adhere to the you-can't-teach-speed school of drafting wideouts, and it appears to have worked out OK for them in the past. After he went to the Vikings, Berrian said that not only did he not really have any routes under his belt coming out of college, but he didn't even really have a handle on how to throttle down and get into a cut. He said he was just a run-fast guy, then Darryl Drake (the Bears WRs coach) taught him to be a real receiver. Maybe he can do the same with Wallace.

You're misreading me here - I said drops are a killer if it's your #2 receiver. Boldin's the only #2 on that list, and he doesn't tend to drop passes. The rest of those receivers are all #1 on their respective teams: T.O., Edwards, and Berrian. Look at it this way: passing is a risk/reward calculation. A pass play is much riskier than a running play is, but it has the potential to go for a long gain, too. Smart Football had an article breaking this down. The upshot is this, you need to figure out how to gauge the risk against the reward, and the bigger the potential reward, the more risk you can accept. Your #1 guy provides the potential for a long play, so you can live with a higher risk that he drops the ball and the play goes for nothing. Your #2 guy, though, is there to provide a lower-risk/lower-reward option in the form of more consistent, shorter receptions. Whoever's going over the middle on intermediate routes (that offer less of a potential gain) needs to be dependable, or else your quarterback is choosing between high-risk/high-reward and high-risk/low-reward. The whole reason that you check down for a shorter gain is that it's more likely to work than the first option. If your checkdown target isn't reliable, that defeats the entire purpose. I'm not saying that no receiver can drop the ball and be good. I'm saying that the Bears already have a guy who's a threat in spite of his drops in Hester; now they need someone for Cutler to check it down to. Again, if you need to see the difference, look at the difference between Roy Williams' yards-per-target as a #1 versus as a #2. Yards per target are a great stat for this kind of thing, because they combine the potential for a long gain with the potential for a dropped pass. Reliable unspectacular receivers should have comparable YPT to less-reliable big-play threats. When Roy was Detroit's deep threat, he was pretty good. From 2004-2006, he caught between 45% and 55% of the passes thrown to him. That's a poor catch rate, and a lot of it was from drops. His yards-per-catch was very high, though: between 15.1 and 16 yards per. During that period, his YPT went from 7 to 8.6: meaning in 2006, throwing it to Williams was good for (on average) 8.6 yards, even after taking into account the drops. You can compare Williams' YPT as a deep threat to that of a good possession receiver. During that same three-year period, T.J. Houshmandzadeh had a YPT between 8.3 and 8.9, even though he was only averaging 12 or 13 yards a catch. That's because Housh doesn't drop passes, and he caught between 66% and 69% of the passes thrown to him. So even though Williams is less reliable and Housh doesn't make big plays, they're comparably worth throwing to, in terms of the average reward for targeting them. Williams was totally ill-suited for the #2 role, though, because he was just as unreliable on short throws as on long ones. Midway through 2007, Calvin Johnson emerged as the #1 wideout. In 2008, as a #2 (first to CJ, then to TO) receiver, he caught 44% of the passes thrown to him. That's about what he'd been doing before. However, since he was running short-to-intermediate routes, he only got 11.9 yards per catch, instead of 15 or 16. That adds up to a measly 5.24 yards per target. It's pretty obvious that Williams is only worth throwing to if he's going deep: if the reward gets lower but the risk stays just as high, he's not as good a receiver in that role. My worry about Massaquoi is that we'd be getting Housh's big-play potential (not much) with Williams' drops. That doesn't add up to a good #2 receiver.

Moose was always open, but how many clutch passes did he drop? Drops destroy an offense's rhythm; they keep a quarterback from being able to check down quickly and instinctively, like he can when he knows he has a safety valve. Look at Detroit's passing game when they had Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams. Johnson was the deep threat, and Williams was supposed to be the #2, the target on underneath/crossing routes. You would have expected them to be ridiculous, and they were when Williams was on his game. But just as often, they would implode. Why? Because if you're the #2 and the QB checks it down to you, he has to be confident that you're going to secure the catch. If he's not confident of that, then he's going to go further through his progression; the longer he waits, the more likely he gets sacked. Williams always dropped too many passes to be a reliable checkdown target, and when he started dropping passes, their passing game got completely disrupted. Also, I know that deep threats can get the underneath receiver open, but the reverse can be true as well. Look at what Wes Welker does for New England's offense. He's just an underneath guy, he doesn't stretch the field, but he caught 75% of the passes thrown to him last season. He's Tom Brady's checkdown target, which helps the offense stay in rhythm, and offenses can't focus overmuch on Randy Moss, because Welker will kill them over the middle. The Bears have a less-than-reliable deep threat to stretch the defense out. We need a guy to make those clutch catches underneath. I disagree here. There was an anonymous quote on PFW a while back from a defensive coordinator who played the Bears in 2008. He said the only player they were scared of, the only guy they gameplanned for, was Matt Forte. People didn't start double-covering Hester until the very end of the season (I think the Saints game was the first time I ever saw two guys on him.)

It was both. He got caught with drugs and had a knee injury, if I remember right.

Robiskie could very easily go in the bottom of the 1st. If Nicks falls because of his poor workouts/weight issues (which I think are exaggerated, but that's not to say they won't hurt his draft status) then Robiskie's right up there with Kenny Britt and DHB. He's probably the most pro-ready wideout in the entire draft, he's got zero red flags for character or injury, and he showed at the Combine that he's a lot faster than people thought he was. I think he'll be a big climber on draft day, and I'd be very surprised if he's there when Chicago picks at #49. If he is and they don't draft him, they're morons.

I'm not sure it has to do with his play on the field. He did just have a run-in with the law: he somehow got charged with obstruction of justice during a traffic stop. He got no other charges, and he wasn't even the driver. Given what's happened with Marshawn Lynch, Donte Whitner, et al this offseason, Buffalo may be trying to make an example of Simpson. They couldn't exactly afford to part with Lynch or Whitner, but they may feel they need to send a message.