NFC North Skill Position Groups and More

[adam]

NFC North Skill Groups (1QB, 2RB, 2TE, 3WR):

CHI - Williams / Swift, Herbert / Kmet, Everett / Moore, Allen, Odunze
DET - Goff / Gibbs, Montgomery / LaPorta, Wright / St. Brown, Williams, Raymond
MIN - McCarthy / Jones, Chandler / Hockenson, Oliver / Jefferson, Addison, Powell
GB - Love / Jacobs, Lloyd / Musgrave, Kraft / Watson, Dobbs, Reed

- Rookies in Red
- Meh players in Blue

The Bears have the best WR Corps, Everett is the best TE2 of the bunch, making the TE Room competitive with DET and MIN. DET has the best RB Room but CHI and GB are close behind. Adding Odunze really puts the Bears offense over the top. Roschon would be ahead of Chandler on MIN and he is not even listed. 

Here is how I would rank them today, assuming projected potential from the rookies:

QB - CHI / GB / DET / MIN
RB - DET / CHI / GB / MIN
TE - MIN / DET / CHI / GB
WR - CHI / MIN / DET / GB

Using pts from 1-4 for each group, totals are as follows:

CHI - 13 pts
DET - 11 pts
MIN - 9 pts
GB - 7 pts

Just say you don't agree on the QBs, and you bump Williams to 3rd. That would give DET 12pts, CHI 11pts, and GB 8 pts. There is a clear gap from DET and CHI to GB and MIN. For defenses, CHI and MIN were the best, followed by DET, then GB. So I would not be surprised if GB struggles a lot more than people think this year (actual tape on Love). MIN will be contingent on McCarthy, just like the Bears will be on Williams. I just have a lot more faith in Williams. His track record is a lot longer than McCarthy's.  

If you overlay these teams onto their projected schedules, it shows the following outcomes:

1. Bears 10.5 wins (7 win team +3.5 wins) - Bears already had success against DET last year, Williams adds 2 wins by himself
2. Lions 10.5 wins  (12 win team -1.5 wins) - Normal regression with tougher schedule, relatively the same team
3. Vikings 8.5 wins (7 win team +1.5 wins) - Will be solely dependent on McCarthy, this team is the most volatile, could end 6-11 easily.
4. Packers 7.5 wins  (9 win team -1.5 wins) - Has regression written all over it, Love was too lucky, loss of Jones will be visible. 

This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed.

One other note. Looking at Jordan Love's numbers, it is hard to see Williams not surpassing what Love did last year (4159 yds, 32 TDs) with this Bears group. Love had those numbers without a receiver that caught 70+ receptions or had over 800 yards. His receivers caught 64, 59, 39, 34, 31, 30, and 28 respectively. Last season, Allen caught 108, Moore 96, Kmet 73, Everett 51, Swift 39, and Herbert caught 20. That is 387 receptions WITHOUT Odunze. Love had 372 completions. Even if you take away 20% from all the Bears listed, then add 63 for Odunze (JSN had 63 last year with Waldron as rookie WR3), Williams would have 372 completions. How ironic.

[Mongo3451]

Josh Jacobs > Aaron Jones

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Josh Jacobs > Aaron Jones

First, I did have GBs RB group ahead of MINs. Second, Jacobs is going to a new offense and just came off a season where he averaged 3.5 YPC. Yuck. Jones knew that offense like the back of his hand and dominated in the playoffs last year. Very few backs post back to back 100-yard games in the playoffs with 3 TDs in 2 games. 

In 2022, I would agree that Jacobs was better, but for their careers, or any other year, Jones has the edge.  Just look up the numbers. Even with Jacobs monster year in 2022, he still averages 0.8 less yards per carry than Jones for his career. Almost 1 yard per carry is a lot. In 130 less carries, Jones has 400 more rushing yards and only one fewer rushing TDs. Then when you take receiving into account, it slants more towards Jones. Receiving TDs for their careers, Jones = 18, Jacobs = 0. Come on man, Zero.  That is unheard-of. Even Khalil Herbert has 2 receiving TDs in his career.

Using AV for the last 5 seasons, Jones AV = 54, Jacobs AV = 44. Again one monster year in 2022, outside of that, Jacobs has been fairly average. If you had to put their seasons in order, Jacobs has the best season in 2022, but then Jones would have the next 4. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, adam said:

This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed.

that made me happy

[adam]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

that made me happy

It's true 😁

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, adam said:

It's true 😁

It's actually not, but WE can will it into existence...💪

[adam]

26 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's actually not, but WE can will it into existence...💪

Those are not my numbers, that is what OTC came up with after reviewing previous season outcomes based on last year's records and the follow year's draft picks. It may not occur because of external factors (injuries, weather, COVID-24, etc), but those numbers are factual based on the information provided.

[BearFan PHX]

I just like that not EVERYTHING is an opinion

[Mongo3451]

38 minutes ago, adam said:

Those are not my numbers, that is what OTC came up with after reviewing previous season outcomes based on last year's records and the follow year's draft picks. It may not occur because of external factors (injuries, weather, COVID-24, etc), but those numbers are factual based on the information provided.

I know what you are relaying and it's a decent theory. However, I was a validation specialist for many years at a pharma company, so I'm very picky with stats.  It is a cool stat.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I know what you are relaying and it's a decent theory. However, I was a validation specialist for many years at a pharma company, so I'm very picky with stats.  It is a cool stat.

Oh cool, I didn't know that. Yeah, they are obviously historical averages, and mean nothing, but over time, on average, teams fall into those buckets. So if we just apply the same historical data to the NFC North, that is what it looks like. It does not take into account for those external things, but it also doesn't take into account Williams playing at a high level, which if that happens, this team is going to be really hard to beat.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I know what you are relaying and it's a decent theory. However, I was a validation specialist for many years at a pharma company, so I'm very picky with stats.  It is a cool stat.

Youre not wrong at all. I just loved the idea that something was being asserted as more than just an opinion for once, and in a bold font! But I you're right, I have to agree.

[BearFan PHX]

34 minutes ago, adam said:

It does not take into account for those external things, but it also doesn't take into account Williams playing at a high level, which if that happens, this team is going to be really hard to beat.

I dunno how closely past stats predict future outcomes, especially with so much noise in the system, but I still loved your bold font! And youre right, the stats dont take into account whether Williams will be more than an average QB as defined in those stats.

Im cautious about expecting perfection, but his floor is awfully high too. He is more NFL ready than most ever are coming into the league, so hes already probably the 15th best QB in the league right now without even having learned a thing in training camp yet. And by learning I dont mean like "oh thats what cover 3 is" but more just the average speed and level of talent in the league, and what is exploitable and what isnt.

One really good thing for Caleb is that he is going to face our secondary in practice a lot, and thankfully they are a good test. Especially if he starts picking them apart and they get better as a result too.

Everything in football is a multiplier, the ultimate team game. If just one piece is a 0, then everything is a 0. But when your roster is good, then the players elevate each other by having to play against them all week.

I've heard that the 1985 Bears offense found gameday to be the easiest day of the week for them. Games were easier than playing against their own defense during the week.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno how closely past stats predict future outcomes, especially with so much noise in the system, but I still loved your bold font! And youre right, the stats dont take into account whether Williams will be more than an average QB as defined in those stats.

Im cautious about expecting perfection, but his floor is awfully high too. He is more NFL ready than most ever are coming into the league, so hes already probably the 15th best QB in the league right now without even having learned a thing in training camp yet. And by learning I dont mean like "oh thats what cover 3 is" but more just the average speed and level of talent in the league, and what is exploitable and what isnt.

One really good thing for Caleb is that he is going to face our secondary in practice a lot, and thankfully they are a good test. Especially if he starts picking them apart and they get better as a result too.

Everything in football is a multiplier, the ultimate team game. If just one piece is a 0, then everything is a 0. But when your roster is good, then the players elevate each other by having to play against them all week.

I've heard that the 1985 Bears offense found gameday to be the easiest day of the week for them. Games were easier than playing against their own defense during the week.

Yeah, and from listening to Jaylon, the defense and secondary can't wait for the challenge, which will also make them better. Iron sharps iron is a real thing.

You're correct, it's exponential for sure, and the QB is the biggest exponentialator! As good as Fields was with his deep ball or escaping sure sacks, everything else was lackluster, which really neutered the offense. If those areas are just average, and Williams can just stay on time, these WRs are going to eat. Odunze is drawing CB3 every game. Just go look up the Bears opponents and find their CB3's PFF Grade. Basically, it is going to be Odunze against Kindle Vildor every week. It is going to be comical. 

To compensate, teams will have to have a light box, so get ready for Swift, Herbert, and Roschon to cook on the ground. 

If the offense can score, then the defense will be playing against a more predictable opponent offense, which will make the defense better.

Then if we actually have a real punter who can pin opponents inside the 20 consistently, I can't see how this is not a top 10 team in the NFL, and that is being somewhat "safe".

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Yeah, and from listening to Jaylon, the defense and secondary can't wait for the challenge, which will also make them better. Iron sharps iron is a real thing.

You're correct, it's exponential for sure, and the QB is the biggest exponentialator! As good as Fields was with his deep ball or escaping sure sacks, everything else was lackluster, which really neutered the offense. If those areas are just average, and Williams can just stay on time, these WRs are going to eat. Odunze is drawing CB3 every game. Just go look up the Bears opponents and find their CB3's PFF Grade. Basically, it is going to be Odunze against Kindle Vildor every week. It is going to be comical. 

To compensate, teams will have to have a light box, so get ready for Swift, Herbert, and Roschon to cook on the ground. 

If the offense can score, then the defense will be playing against a more predictable opponent offense, which will make the defense better.

Then if we actually have a real punter who can pin opponents inside the 20 consistently, I can't see how this is not a top 10 team in the NFL, and that is being somewhat "safe".

yeah, maybe I'm drunk on blue and orange kool aid, but that's how it looks to me too. THis offense just has too many weapons, Caleb just has to operate it, and I think he will do more than that.

[adam]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah, maybe I'm drunk on blue and orange kool aid, but that's how it looks to me too. THis offense just has too many weapons, Caleb just has to operate it, and I think he will do more than that.

I also go back to looking at what other teams' fans and outside media has been saying. Once they got Allen and Odunze, now I see them 2 and Moore on best WR trio graphics. I also see Williams, Swift, Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet on best offense graphics. The Bears having a top 10 defense is already a thing as they played like a top 5 unit the last 2 months of the season. 

To me, the only issue is going to be there will be too many guys open. Williams is going to have to decide on which open receiver he wants to throw to.

[BearFan PHX]

Jumping from bad to mediocre is common. Jumping from mediocre to good is difficult. Jumping from good to great is extremely hard to do, and jumping from anywhere to champion, especially more than once, is very difficult for all but the best Offenses / QBs.

Sometimes you need to get to that rarified air to realize how much deeper youre going to have dig inside yourself than you even knew was possible.

Jordan was always Jordan. He always had those skills and the greatness inside of him. But he still had to crash on the Pistons multiple times until he found out how deep he had to reach inside himself. After that, he went on a run of Championships that no one could stop. He was then super-powered and ran over everyone.

This is about more than talent and execution. This is the mental side of being a multiple time champion.

I see everything we are saying, and I expect us to be a playoff team soon. I wont take a guess at the high or low side of this coming year - anything is possible from 7-10 to the sky's the limit. But I am confident that we will be a playoff team in 2025. We will be beating teams most weeks, but we wont be seeing the really good teams very often. Our true test, and the growth that comes with it, will be rare, and might even have to wait for the playoffs.

I think we could be NFC Championship game bound very soon. I could see us winning any game with our roster, but i can also see losing because of this intangible thing that you only learn once youve lost on the big stage and get a sense of what it takes.

So I expect this to come in three phases. First the team ascends, and learns to play together and becomes a top 5 team. Then they start to truly contend and lose a game to be eliminated from deep in the playoffs. THEN I see a real superbowl contender.

Of course a double doink, or lucky fumble can earn you a win you didnt really deserve, or lose you a game you should have won. Some years the superbowl is there for the taking because something happened that put the Chiefs out early. Having a top5 team can result in a superbowl victory. But having the best team, primed and battle hardened can allow you to TAKE the superbowl from anyone, multiple times.

Hopefully we are on a journey toward building that kind of team. The easy path of an improved roster and the ability to score points isnt enough to reliably and repeatedly be in superbowl contention, but it is the step between here and there.

So Im excited, but there are still mountains to climb here, and its going to take a couple seasons if the goal is to be the biggest baddest MFs in the league who know how to dispatch anyone.