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Both are true, I think maybe it will take one year but we could be a top 5 offense in the league. Of course that solely rests on Caleb's shoulders, if he is the projected franchise QB, oh boy will this be fun.

Your the best stats man here: Which rookie QB had the best passing numbers in the redzone? Not a presumptive question as I don't know the answer.

I don't look at their stuff but I'd be willing to bet CJ Stroud was easily top 10 on their rankings last year, maybe even at 6 like Daniels this year.

What happened to Kmet from 2023 to 2024? Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze took his targets. Caleb and the Bears may have been better off giving Kmet more opportunities with his catch rate. If Odunze can convert half of those misses into catches, he'd be a 1000 plus player. 2023 DJ Moore 136 96 1364 Cole Kmet 90 77 719 Darnell Mooney 61 31 414 2024 DJ Moore 140 98 966 Keenan Allen 121 70 744 Rome Odunze 101 54 734 Cole Kmet 55 47 474

even with a mediocre output from this group, records should be broken, which says two things; our roster is pretty good and Bears offensive records are pretty weak.

I think it confuses things more than it helps them, but obviously everyone talks about them, and I am certainly not here to tell anyone not to! But neither do i think a PFF ranking or stat is "evidence" in a discussion, debate or argument? I dont' even see it as a confirming piece of evidence to pile on after something more reasonable says something. That's why i say they are random and not wrong. Sometimes they are right, but not because of math, just because of luck in my opinion. I mean these are the people that told us that Charles Leno gave us performances that ranked near the top of the league!

I agree. It is more of a novelty and should not be used as your sole source.

I know it is statistically not realistic, but people are calling for huge years for Burden and Odunze. Moore and Kmet are fairly consistent, and that doesn't even include Loveland. I really think this offense is poised to crush franchise records.

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random. Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context. If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw. An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account. Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team. Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome. When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing. I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field. It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

There are some good parts to PFF, but you have to dig. The grades from a macro view are ok, but still subjective. However, they do have some advanced analytics numbers that are based on real stats (comparable to NFL Next Gen Stats).

PFF is random though

True, the only reason I posted it is because PFF just put their ranking out

It's all been said over and over. The reasons i think what i think are clear, and the stats you're using to bolster your argument are clear too. There's no need to go around in circles so i won't repeat it all again. Time will tell what happens.

Good info, I didn't even pay attention to his deal.

Daniels ranking is solely due to his scrambling. Technically Nix had the best passing season of the top 3 rookies last season. I don't know how you can have Williams after Bryce Young, McCarthy (ultimately a rookie), Maye, and Penix. That is just silly.

i get that but Penix only played 5 games, McCarthy never played last year and rank higher. Cam Ward hasnt played one snap and is only one spot behind Caleb. He at least deserves to be ranked ahead of the top of tier 4 right behind Bo Nix.

Caleb has to show more and win football games. We look at the Bears on paper and think we are great, but until they show it in games it will be this way. CJ and Jayden were behind center and made the playoffs while the Bears fell apart. Let's hope this new regime changes our outlook.

He has two more yrs on a contract that pays him a totaal of 30 mil but none of it was guaranteed and was trying to get the brass to rework the deal to give him some guaraanteed money. He was going to hold out but choose retirement to force their hand. The Lions GM is nortorious for letting good players l go instead of paying big money. J Jackson and D Swift were a part of the GMs history. They drafted Ratledge and now have him listed as the starting OC. Lions back loaded Franks contract to have 30 mil left that he could cut him once he reached that. He saves 23 mil by letting him go now. The situation is actually worse than just Ragnow being gone. Mahongany is now playing LG , a 6th round pick last year and at RG is Graham Glasgow, a 10 vet is now playing RG. That is 3 new starters in the IOL.

This is the great website PFF QB rankings for 2025. Caleb is ranked 24th under the heading Tier 4 (young players with range of potential outcome) Ahead of him are #6 Jaydon Daniels ( tier 2: high end starters) a one year of play has him in elite status? CJ Stroud #14 (tier 3b. solid starters that need more help) this is probably fair with both yrs of tape figured in In the same tier 4 as Caleb 19) Bo Nix 20) Byrce Young 21) JJ McCarthy 22) Drake Maye 23) Michael Penix They have at 25, one back of Caleb, a rookie that hasnt had a NFL snap Cameron Ward Caleb had a respectful year, not great but much better than several names ahead of them. They have added more weapons, an OL and an offensive genius in BJ. Yet Caleb is listed behind them, WTF

Frank Ragnow, Lions Center, unexpectedly retired. Huge blow to their O-Line. They had already lost Zeitler, so 40% of their O-Line is gone. I don't know why he waited until after free agency and the draft (maybe he tried to give it a go), but either way, you don't just replace an All-Pro Center with anyone. This feels like a huge offensive regression coming from Detroit this year. Goff with pressure up the gut is the worst for him because he is not very mobile.

I understand when you say Loveland is a better recieving TE than Kmet, but you keep saying he hasnt proven himself. He did that in 2023 which prompted his contract. 73/719/6 that was good for the 9th ranked TE that year. Last year his stats regressed when he had 35 less targets. He doesnt have good hands, he has great hands. Literally led TEs the last two years in catch rate. No one is saying he is Kelce, Kittle or even Bowers but is a high end TE in the league.

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him. I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too. I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure. I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

I don't think anybody is over stating what Kmet can do as a receiver. He's good there, has really good hands but doesn't have the agility that you see with Loveland. Kmet isn't elite either as a blocker. He's a jack of all trades but that is still valuable for a play caller especially when paired with Loveland between the 20s. Both TEs will be effective in the redzone too. If anyone knows how to use these two TEs effectively it's Ben Johnson.