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  2. Out of Thuney, Jones, Billings, Brisker, and Byard, Thuney is probably the one you extend, even if it is just for a 2nd year.
  3. adam

    Sack Reduction

    How many fewer sacks can we expect to see in 2025? New coaches, new scheme, revamped O-Line and 2 shiny new weapons. So Williams led the NFL in sacks last year with 68 on 562 passing attempts, which was the highest sack total since David Carr's 68 in 2005. At first I thought, ok, if he can drop by 20%, that would be solid. That would be 14 fewer sacks for a total of 54. That would've still led the league last season without Williams' 68. So it needs to be lower. So the next number is 33%, can he cut his sacks down by a third, so can he cut 23 sacks to go to 45? That would still be top 10 in sacks, but less than Burrow, Darnold, and Daniels. That seems a lot better. Bryce Young went from 62 to 29 from 2023 to 2024. Some of the raw total drop was tied to fewer attempts but he also dropped his Sack% by 3%. If we apply that same concept to Williams and say he cuts down his sack rate from 10.79% to 7%, his total using last year's numbers would be 44. So that 44 to 45 number seems legit and realistic. Now if we use those lost plays and apply them to his percentages, he instantly adds 170 yards of passing and 16 more completions to his numbers from last year without any other change. If Williams can improve on his comp% by 5%, that would add another 28 completions and 300 more yards. Now we are at 4K passing without any other changes than sack reduction and improved comp%. Now add better scheme/coaching + better O-Line + better weapons and I could easily see mid 4K passing for Williams in 2025. Of all the 2024 QB Draft Picks, I think he will lead them in several stats including passing yards.
  4. I’d really rather we see what we have with these new guys before signing them to an extension. I had the same problem with the Jonah Jackson extension. I understand doing it, but imagine if we’d taken the same approach with Chase Claypool.
  5. adam

    Draft...

    I honestly think two things hurt Poles in his first few years as a GM, Eberflus and Fields. It seems he was forced to hire Eberflus or pick from a small list with Eberflus being the best option. Then having to figure out if Fields was the real deal or not as quickly as possible, which sort of forced the Claypool trade and overpay for Davis. Since that point, Poles has been about as good as you can be as a GM given the restraints and resources. Williams for Young straight up is a win for the Bears, but then when you think you ended up with 6 starters for that one pick is crazy, all thanks to Lovie and Davis Mills comeback win.
  6. Today
  7. Not necessarily, but they would have to make room under the cap to actually sign them to a contract if that contract total for the year exceeds their available cap space, and once they get to 90 players, they would have to cut someone for the roster spot too. I think they will go into camp first and see what they got before committing any extra money out. Poles like that summer 2nd wave of free agency.
  8. adam

    League News

    Pickens traded to DAL. Crazy to think of all the drama around him since the draft and he ends up getting traded for a future 3rd round pick. Good value for DAL. PIT basically swapped Pickens for Metcalf and dropped a 2nd to get a 3rd.
  9. Just seen where Geroge Pickens was traded to Dallas for a 3rd round pick. He's a talented WR but has character issues . Tomlin doesnt get rid of quality players for no reason. I remember a lot of people wanted Poles to take him. He was picked 4 spots after we took Brisker in the 2022 draft. With our dysfuncinal offense the pass few yrs it wouldnt have went well here.
  10. First of all Kmet is not a bad blocker. Getting rid of the 9th rated TE to get a cheaper choice has risk. (CBS ratings) Say we trade him for a 5th round pick. How many 5th round picks does what he does in his career? 258 recs 2592 yds 19 TDs Had the best catch rate for a TE with over 50 targets. 47 of 55. Do you honestly think Ben Johnson wants to trade productive assets because he drafted a TE that might be good in the NFL? Ben likes to play chess with his offense, keep moving assets around so the defense doesnt know what he's going to do. 2 major assets are rookies, so you want to get rid of a proven asset for a better cap space. No logic in that at all.
  11. If you have time this is a very interesting video with Wannstedt. At around 33 minutes. A friend of his runs Pro Scout that every team buys. They rate all players in the NFL. the last 10 SB winners, there was no blue LTs but every team that won a SB had a blue center. Conclusion was center was the most important OL.
  12. I think the idea is that if you trade Kmet at some point, with the $10M you save off the cap, and with the draft picks you get for trading him, you can help the team more than Kmet will. If you want an inline blocking TE, they are not hard to find cheaper, and you can add more in other places. The reason you'd trade Kmet is the same reason you'd trade down in the draft.
  13. Yes that's why we should be lucky we have Poles even with his mistakes.
  14. So if they add any more players they literarly have to cut a player of equal pay. Another reason why they wont be adding anyone else until camp starts. If they want another RB I dont see teams signing any until they reach camp and replace someone injured or cut. I suppose a player could get hurt during OTAs and then maybe. We had 6 RBs going into camp last year and we have 6 in the building, I think we're set for now.
  15. We have a young QB with a highly successful offensive mind, why get rid of assets before you see what Ben puts together. Niether are leaving anytime soon. Isnt it better to have two high level TEs and 3 high level WRs? The cap wont be a problem until Caleb gets a new contract so why trade or let go of good players. That doesnt make any sense.
  16. Kmet is a valuable asset and is signed thru 2027. Calebs contract ends at the same time so he will at least be here until Caleb gets a big contract. Cole will be 28 when his contract ends so chances of another contract are thin but a lot can happen between now and 2027. Loveland has a higher ceiling but who knows about future injuries or other situations that could occur.
  17. Yesterday
  18. Cole is a very capable player. Im definitely not saying he sucks. I'm saying he isn't worth a big contract in the long run. Next year is his last year, because I don't see him getting a big payday from the Bears after that. But does he help us now, before that? Absolutely. He does have value. But that's also why someone will pay him more than we will. And if we arent going to keep him, unless Im missing something in compensatory formula, its better to get something for him before that. I'm guessing the trade deadline, if not during the offseason next year. Teams with good rosters cant afford good but not great players. For example we got Akiem Hicks from the Patriots in a move when he had one year left on his contract. It's not that Belichick didnt know how good Hicks was, he, and we both agreed he was a very good player. But we had the cap space for him, and when you have a packed roster like the Patriots did, you gotta replace those guys with good draft picks instead of second contracts to keep it going, and you gotta let guys go before the last year of their deal if youre not going to pay them big. So I disagree as to whether Kmet will be traded, but i agree with you that he definitely has value as a player.
  19. I think this is likely actually. In a vacuum, I think Kmet is gone next year. Im not an expert on compensatory picks, so if Im missing something there Im all ears, but if youre gonna lose Kmet next year, you might as well get something for him now. The trade deadline seems likely. I've been saying Kmet is on the bubble since like January. Now that we have Loveland and Burden, it seems obvious that we will get another inline blocking TE rather than pay Kmet. might as well get something for it.
  20. They do the show after Waddle and Silvey. Neither one of them are football guys, so all they do is speculate. I refuse to buy any Kmet trade talk. We've all been saying we needed a move TE to go with him. As soon as we get the complimentary piece, he's expendable? Cole is still a very valuable piece of the team and a top ten player at his position. Loveland and Kmet will actually compliment each others strengths and help free up the other.
  21. Without knowing if the rookies will even amount to anything, that seems like a risky proposition for the Bears at this point, but I could see Kmet moved before Moore, but not any earlier than the trading deadline. Moore is not even in the top 10 for WR AAV, and by next year, his deal will be a bargain AND he is signed for several more years. I would keep him at least thru 2026 or 2027, and that's only if Odunze and Burden rise to their potential.
  22. It starts at the beginning of the new league year in March. However, the number of players doesn't matter; just the top 51 count against the cap for the entire season.
  23. I seen bleacher report Chargers site that had 2 different proposed trades put forth. One was trading for Kmet for a 4th or 5th round pick. Reasoning was drafting Loveland makes Kmet expendable. Another one was trading for DJ Moore using the same logic. Drafting Burden means Moore is expendable. I guess its not just Bears fans that visit LaLa Land during the preseason.
  24. That makes sense, Im not sure when they are responible to set the cap space. They are allowed a 90 player roster so it would have to be later in the year to set the cap amount after they start cutting players. They still have to establish a operating total for the season which she put us under water.
  25. Yes, so there is a total rookie pool and an effective cap hit, which subtracts the bottom players (in the top 51) that count against the cap as they are replaced by the new player. For simple math, just subtract $1M from each's players 2025 cap hit, so only Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, and Turner will be the only ones that count negatively against the cap. All the other players are a wash. Last year if Rome got $4.1 and he bumped a guy making $1M, the cap only dropped by $3.1M to add him, Kiran only 300K.
  26. I thought the rookie cost for each spot drafted were already self determined. Pick # 10 is listed as 4.5 mil. I know last year Rome got 4.1 mil as the 9th pick. Kiran A got 1.3 mil as a third round pick.
  27. I don't think he is correct unless OvertheCap and Spotrac are wrong. The rookie pool is around $6.5M, considering they are replacing players on the 53-man roster that are already counted towards the cap. So if the Bears have around $10.6M in cap right now (Spotrac says $11.4M), they should have at least $4M after all rookies are signed. That doesn't mean they won't make other cuts, as Williams and Bates both make a lot of sense, so cutting them would push the cap space over $10M without a Thuney extension. They may do it if they bring on another RB, S, or Edge.
  28. They can play with the cap besides cutting a few players. As of today OTC shows us at 10.6 mil in cap space. They estimate our rookie pool as 13.3 mil. which will put us underwater. We also have to add operatiing capital thru the yr. Last year is was around 9 mil. So we have around 12 mil to come up with. Being under the cap I dont see us signing anymore quality signing until after training cap starts. OTC shows us as having 38.4 mil going into next yr as of now.
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