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Plus I think if you wait until after the draft the signing(s) don't count to the comp pick formula, so I presume there is a wave of free agency we will see take off once the comp impacts are gone. My guess is also the more time you can wait on Connor the better cause you have a better idea of his general health/recovery from the injury.

I agree - I think people are overating a strong finish. The dline has Sweat who came out on fire - but it is still on the mediocre side. DB's look good but are young so can take a step back vs. forward and we literally played so few quality QB's all year. Do I think the D is solid - sure, but this is not a top 5 D, I would argue it might be a Top 10 D. Note: I am very happy with direction of the team - but I think we have a lot of overhyping potentially going on here. Just like with the team won 7 games but its now destined for 11. We had some win's against really really bad teams and yes we had some tough losses but at same time we benefited from playing teams with hurt QB's, etc (as did teams with us).

That's cool in theory, but that's not how the math works. Bad teams improve at a greater rate because they are usually young, bitten with injuries and/or coach loses the team and is replaced. If those teams win three or four more, they still aren't good. Vegas builds billion dollar casino's and the have us at 8.5. I think we sneak in at nine wins.

I think the Bears defense in total was top 5 for the last 12 weeks of the season, i.e. once we got Sweat in there. Doesn't mean they will be top 5 next year, or that they will dominate the good teams, but I can see why there is reason to hope they will?

adam, cool and interesting analysis as always. Thanks for that.

Interesting to note that, with all the Vikings moves, their 2025 draft picks are: - Their own 1st - Their own 5th - The Browns 5th and that’s it. We thought we didn’t have much draft capital this year, but we had two top ten picks and another day 2 pick. If McCarthy isn’t the guy and/or the Vikings struggle, they are going to be in some trouble in the 2025 offseason.

I'm a little fuzzy, but didn't we give up around 450 yards and a Packer receiver dropped a sure TD? Please don't ever tell me they didn't have anything to play against the Packers. Also, Justin had everything to play for. If he was as beloved as stated, the D would've been inspired.

He looks goofy at first glance. But if you look deep into it, he is covering ground very quickly. He's so bendy, it looks like he's made of rubber. Once he hits the professional weight room and gets his hand fighting down, it's going to be like trying to block flowing water.

I'm 100% on board with this and it's possible Poles had an agreement with him to re-visit talks when he was healthier. (i.e.don't go anywhere without talking to us). There's no doubt Williams would prefer a longer term deal and most teams likely wanted to give him a 1yr deal or at least less guaranteed money. Maybe this is why he bypassed the center position in the draft. He kept enough cap space to make a deal like this.

We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year. Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players. So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins. Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc). https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs. In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense? I see top half and but not top five.

I don't think we are giving Booker enough praise. Draft Buzz had him ranked as the 68th best player. Brugler had him at 78. He was only a rotational player, 474 snaps only started one game. Which makes 37 pressures and 9 sacks that much bigger. One to two years of NFL development and we could have a 10+ sack guy. This year as a situational pass rusher we could see 5 to 7 sacks which would be great. At 240 he needs at least 15 lbs added but isn't terrible against the run. Also Draft Buzz had Kiran Amedgadjie ranked as the 63rd best player. Best punter in the last 10 years and this could be the best draft the Bears ever had even with only 5 players.

If I remember correctly someone broke down where the players came from that made up rosters. (average over the league) I think 1st led that % but UDFAs were second.

A couple things I look at. I don't look at the team that went 7-10, I look at the team that went 5-3 the last 8 games. A top defense, and a better offense. Rah, Rah for D. We have Sweat for the full year, for Flus to better know how to use him. Stevenson, Dexter, Pickens, Terrell Smith will all improve. One more year of the DBs playing together with a better Free Safety. Booker and who ever else he brings in will add to the pass rush. The only loss was Justin Jones, who at the time everyone thought just played average as a grade. I think he was good. Top 5 Defense. Rah Rah for O. Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Everett, and Swift. Herbert is a good back but doesn't have enough durability to be a dominant 3 down runner. Johnson has another year experience and Swift is the bell cow RB. A quality backup TE, Center position ( Bates and Shelton). Improved. Depth along the line, drafted a swing OT and the most important acquisition, Shane Waldron. He run an offense with 3 quality WRs, lots of 2 TE plays, had a Bell cow RB. Took advantage of an average QB and generated an offense. He has better quality players to fit in those spots. Top 5 offense.

me too! never heard of them! I googled it and found that link. Crazy.

Wow - I had no idea. I was thinking they were like a d2 school.

jmu is a powerhouse.

https://youtu.be/t4bvypCdLFo?si=lYlE29fKmNvhePsk

He could always go to Atlanta, Pace drafted him.

who knew? https://jmusports.com/news/2023/11/12/football-jmu-rises-to-18-in-ap-top-25.aspx

We should pick up Connor Williams on a deal with a 3 year contract as our option next year. Let him heal and see where he is in October.

thats how it goes when you have a better than average roster! I couldnt believe Leno got paid too. There is a lot of bad football out there, and we used to be a big part of it.

...and yet I'd bet he finds work in the NFL for the next 5 years.

Gosh, I sure hope our 3rd pick can be out a UDFA for the swing OT job.