LT2_3

I emailed it awhile ago. Do I need to send it again?

Pix or DBDB - How do we go about getting my numbers posted somewheres?

I'm working on it. I should have it done soon. As you guys may have seen, some guy posted some numbers on the mothership board. I'm checking my numbers against his and a few of them are quite different so I have to figure out why (other than the fact the guy is an idiot and can't seem to reconcile the difference in his head between actual money and cap dollars if you read the whole thread). To answer about Ced's contract, he's under contract through the 2009 season with salaries of $820k and $1.02 million in 2008 and 2009. His failed bonus doesn't really change anything cap wise. I'm pretty sure it was of the escalator type where if he'd achieved "X", then his salaries would have been more in 2008 and 2009 or it would have come in the form of a roster bonus. Either way, it was never worked into the numbers for next year so there's no savings against the current cap. Rookie contracts are a bit more complicated than other ones for a few reasons. However, without going into huge detail, I have his cap hit at rough;y $3.4 million in 2008, and about $3.6 million in 2009. If we release him (which won't happen btw) we would lose $1.75 million in cap space this year. If we were to split the hit over the next 2 years, we would save $820k against the cap this year and have a dead space hit in 2009 of about $2.5 million. I hope that helps.

It's very true that the same offense didn't work under Terry Shea. That being said, I don't think that anyone would put them on the same level either. THAT being said, I think there are 2 main reasons that Martz would never come here: 1. We are a defensive team first and he'd never have the control he wants over the offense in this environment and 2. We don't play in a dome. I don't think that the lack of a dome can be underestimated for that offense. Sure, it worked well in KC for awhile and they play outdoors, but I don't think they get the wind in KC like we do here that would render the offense pretty useless at the end of the season. His offense is really driven by deep timing patterns which are less likely to work even with a 10 mph wind. I read all kinds of posts from many people suggesting that Martz is a 'great' OC. He did a great job in STL with incredible players and put up gaudy stats. However, I would question whether he's that good in all situations. Even in 2003 when the Rams were 12-4, Faulk only had 818 yards rushing. Anyway, it's a moot point because Turner isn't likely to be going anywhere. When Angelo mentions to the media that his input will be involved in offseason decisions about the offense, it's a pretty good bet that the team isn't planning on him going anywhere.

I'm rooting for a tie - so it screws everybody.

Which one? Last Year, the lowest level was $850k and the 2nd lowest was $1.3 million. That will increase a bit this year. In the case of Davis, the lowest tender would get us nothing in return if he's signed away and the 2nd lowest would get us a 2nd rounder. So figure it will be a $500k difference between the two tenders next year. Which do you like?

I did. And no contract is guaranteed either. (please note smiley)

Well then that makes it even worse. We probably won't know about Davis for sure until sometime in April. The Moose decision will be made in late February.

I think it's too early to tell what to do. Berrian AND Davis are both free agents. I can't see cutting Moose if we end up losing both Berrian and Davis. That would mean that we would be without WRs 1,2, and 3 next year. Unfortunately, I think the decision on Moose needs to be made before free agency because he has a roster bonus due this year. I could see letting him go if we can get Berrian signed before March 1st. If we can't, we'll have to keep him to keep Hester, Hass, and Bradley from being our most experienced receivers in the offense.

I have difficulty doing this as prescribed because it just doesn't work that way. If they are under contract and don't have a huge roster bonus coming up, then I would target their position to provide competition in TC. That way we can see if the guy brought in is actually better before having to make a decision. Guys with Bonuses coming up Walker - I think his 5.5 mil roster bonus needs to be addressed. I think we could easily make that a bit more cap friendly. If he balks, let him go. He's been tough to evaluate with all his dings. Moose - His roster bonus is only a couple million and I'm not exactly sure what to do about the position. I think Bradley has been out of the mix because they have been spending their precious little instructional time during the season on getting Hester more involved. Because of that, our 4th and 5th receivers haven't been productive at all and have provided little competition with the top 3. Rashied Davis is a free agent too, so I'd have to say keep Moose because without him we could end up losing our top 3 receivers otherwise. I'm too firm a believer in continuity to deem that acceptable in any circumstances. Free Agents Berrian - Keep him if we can reasonably Rashied Davis - *See Berrian Reuben Brown - Bring him back if healthy Ayanbadejo - Sign him to a reasonable deal Briggs - Buh bye - too much green for this scheme Grossman - Bring him back to a reasonable 3 yr incentive filled contract Gilmore - Give him a contract that won't hurt us if he gets beat out in camp Guys to can no matter what Archuleta - He just doesn't have the skills any more Fred Miller - *see Archuleta Everyone else Bring everyone else back and let them compete for jobs. I'd try to provide more competition on the Oline, at safety, WR, and FB. The Dline should have plenty of folks to compete once everyone is healthy.

However, any GM that doesn't use every single possible issue to negotiate a lower price, is incompetent.

I dunno........ I read in the Trib that by an unofficial count, New Orleans would have to run double the number of plays on offense in an average game for it to be close. That would be a freak occurance. I think it's at least equally possible that he realizes this will probably be his last game with his current teammates, he doesn't want Jamar to have a chance to make him look less special, and has a desire to avoid looking like he's pouting. I think if you asked a guy like Rosenhaus, he'd say there is little upside to sitting out without a serious injury in your final game before you become a free agent when it comes to marketability. As for his injury, I know it's a hip thing. Is it something that could be aggravated? If it's a bruise and any swelling has gone down, I'm not sure how it could be seriously aggravated.

You are absolutely correct. I misremembered that one. Nice catch and thanks. In looking at it further, it happened prior to the 2002 draft for the Bills 2003 1st rounder. When you look at it that draft picks traded a year into the future are generally considered 1 round lower in value than the current year, Bledsoe was worth a 2nd rounder too. I think McNabb is currently worth more than Bledsoe and Culpepper were when they were traded.

I agree it's not noble or warrior-like, but it's also his last chance to show his wares before he goes to market.

Thanks. The only thing I can think it means is that the Eagles have placed an option bonus into his 2009 contract. If that is indeed the case, then after the 2008 season, the Eagles would have the simple choice of either paying the bonus or releasing him with ZERO compensation. The only other POSSIBLE option at that point would be to get McNabb to delay the payment until he can be traded. Of course then, they have almost no leverage in trade talks and would be lucky to get a 2nd rounder for him. Otherwise teams would just sit back and wait for his release. So, if the Eagles are planning to trade him and get much in return, then this is the year to do it - while he's also a year younger.

I think everyone should remember that the origins of this site derives from TWO sites and one of them was almost exclusively Bears oriented. Personally, I could care less about what baseball team a person roots for. Although, I DO think that folks that are Baseball fans first and Bears fans second have a tendency to come up with more unlikely trade scenarios primarily because they don't immediately understand the financial differences between the sports. Trades are extremely uncommon in the NFL when compared to the other major sports primarily due to salary cap implications. A blockbuster trade for a top name QB is highly uncommon. The last two I can think of are Culpepper and Bledsoe and that covers the past 6ish years. So while McNabb might get traded, the question of what it will cost in draft picks is questionable. Bledsoe went for 2 #1s and Culpepper for a single 2nd round pick. What will McNabb net if he's traded? No one can say for sure. It'll probably depend most on how many teams are interested. For context, here's a list of teams with over $10 million in cap space in 2008 that could be interested in McNabb: Minn, Chi, KC, Miami, NYJ, SF, Buf, and Jax. Not meaning to insult anyone, but it will take some time for everyone to get used to posting together. AND I must add that if I post in a baseball section without suffucient knowledge of how the sport works, feel free to skewer me appropriately because I would deserve it.

You have a link for that? All I could find on Rotoworld about McNabb's future was this: BTW - It's common courtesy to provide a link when quoting something is linkable and in dispute.

Noots! Glad to see you have had time to catch your breath. Good thoughts. The only question I have is if we've had any questions answered by Orton. The knock I always held against him is his apparent inability to place the ball in a receivers arms consistently when throwing over 15 yards downfield.

What do you mean by "option year"? According to the NFLPA, he's under contract until 2013. Here's his reported paragraph 5 salaries: 2008 6300000.00 2009 9200000.00 2010 10000000.00 2011 12070000.00 2012 14140000.00 2013 16210000.00 Did you mean that he has another option bonus coming due at some point?

http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story;jsessi...mp;confirm=true Since I obviously have nothing better to do with my time than this, any more research you want me to do for you while I'm at it?

That's just silly. Why would the Eagles just cut him when there is already a market for him? There have been rumors of him to Chicago - which we all know - but it'also been rumored that the Vikes are interested too. I'm sorry, but expecting him to released outright is just silly. As for the Eagles cap hit, I wouldn't concentrate on that as an issue too much. Sure, they'll have a dead cap space hit of about $6 million, but when you subtract his $6.3 million salary from their 2008 cap, they actually end up with an extra $300k in cap space next year with zero dead space the following year. As for teams balking at his contract, that's ridiculous. There are currently more teams already under the cap for the coming year than there have been (I think) ever: 31. There is also an unprecedented amount of cap space available around the league too with teams that range from $5 million to $41 million in available space. There are 18 teams with $20 million or more available in cap space. His contract isn't that unreasonable going into the future considering the future cap increases. Also, there is no reason for teams to balk at his contract since he'll probably sign a new one. His new team will probably tear up his current one, and give him a new one that fits THEIR cap structure. I don't know if they will trade McNabb if they don't get enough value, but I AM sure they won't just release him. Their posturing says that they won't. It was floated out there that they would want 3 #1 picks for him. THAT's luducrious obviously. But a 1st and 3rd (even if they are in 2009 if it happens after the draft) isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Okay. Someone's fudging the numbers to try and make a point. In 2002, These were the top 12 picks: 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State 2 2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina 3 3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon 4 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas 5 5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas 6 6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina 7 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) 8 8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma 9 9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee 10 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State 11 11 Dwight Freeney Colts DE Syracuse 12 12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin None made the Pro Bowl in 2002 Dwight Freeney and Roy Williams made the Pro Bowl in 2003 Julius Peppers, John Henderson, Dwight Freeney, and Roy Williams in 2004 Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, and Roy Williams in 2005 Julius Peppers, John Henderson, and Roy Williams in 2006 So, out of 60 possible Pro Bowl selections, the players in the top 12 that year earned 12 selections - or they got Pro Bowl selections a mere 20% of the time. Interestingly, of the 4 players that ever got a Pro Bowl nod, only 1 (Peppers) was a top 5 pick while the remainder were selected at 8,9, and 11. Also, if you add in Shockey at #14 multiple times and it completely blows away the idea that a higher pick will get you a better player. Anyone else notice that the guys in the top 12 that made the Pro Bowl were all defensive players? Now I'll be the first to bring up that this is too small a data sample to learn anything. That being said, the changes in the league, the differences in quality of draft class, and the number of juniors that declare, ALL make each draft unique and NO data sample would be complete enough to draw valid conclusions. I also question the validity of Pro Bowl selections as a measure for the quality of a draft since it's a popularity contest anyway. My bottom line on the subject is that I would prefer a pick in the 12-16 range because I think that's where the contracts start to get reasonable for a guy with no proven experience and they won't turn into a boat anchor if they REALLY REALLY suck.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "using the whole cap", but we've been pretty much up AT the cap since Angelo arrived. I'm not sure why you would put that qualification in there. Alot of it comes down to timing and total packages. For instance, we could easliy sign Berrian and Grossman to an incentive laden contract and STILL have lots left over when compared to just signing Briggs. I would project right now that Briggs signs for double what Berrian does. The timing part of it is that we can sign our own guys BEFORE free agency starts and Briggs won't sign early. If we wait to see if we can sign Faneca, Briggs will have likely already signed elsewhere. Berrian could decide to sign early to a reasonable deal, but if that offer is made, you either take it or not. It's kinda like first come first serve and Briggs will be LAST in line because he'll want maximum money. Hoping to sign Briggs is a pipedream. Hey, if we're gonna start posting pipedreams, why don't we just trade our entire offense and a couple of draft picks for the Patriots entire offense and offensive coaching staff? I mean het! If you're gonna dream, you might as well dream BIG!!!

And how would that relate to the rest of the team? Where would you have us scrimp in the future? Say we sign Briggs and Faneca. Boom! We've blown our wad. What then? Do we just promote Orton, Hass, and keep St. Claire at RT for the rest of the offense for next year? I seriously think you're looking at the cap increase and not realizing that the FA numbers will increase too. Briggs will get a contract somewhere in the 7 year $65 million area with $25-30 million guaranteed. The Bears would be STOOPID to pay anything close to that. That's why you guys need to get over it and start waving goodbye to Lance. I like Briggs. To put a letter grade on him, I'd give him an A- (minus due to attitude this year). However, I would give Jamar Williams a C+ with the potential of getting in a groove as a starter and quickly becoming a solid B+. So, do you pay $65 million over 7 years for an A- guy that may keep C- guys on the Oline, or do you let him go, get a compensatory pick for him, and pick up some A-B quality guys for the positions on the team where there is currently NOBODY nearly as talented?

The cap boost isn't really that big. The cap is going from roughly $109 to $116 million. That's only about a 5% increase. I think we can count on Briggs being gone. I'm not saying that he won't be missed, but this is what good teams do. They let their own guys that get overpriced in free agency go, and take the compensatory pick the following year and keep building. I can't see us not getting a 3rd rounder in the 2009 draft.