We all see the Power Rankings year after year and think the media hates the Bears. I honestly think there is a bias because of the rug-burned knees while covering Farv and Erin for the past 20+ years. While the Power Rankings this year don't seem to tell a different tale, the point spreads do.
Bears 2023 Schedule ATS
Week 1: Packers at Bears -2.5
Week 2: Bears -1 at Buccaneers
Week 3: Bears at Chiefs -9.5
Week 4: Broncos -1 at Bears
Week 5: Bears at Commanders -1
Week 6: Vikings at Bears (Pick em)
Week 7: Raiders at Bears -1.5
Week 8: Bears at Chargers -4.5
Week 9: Bears at Saints -3
Week 10: Panthers at Bears -2.5
Week 11: Bears at Lions -4.5
Week 12: Bears at Vikings -3
Week 13: bye week
Week 14: Lions -1 at Bears
Week 15: Bears at Browns -3
Week 16: Cardinals at Bears -5
Week 17: Falcons at Bears -2.5
Week 18: Bears at Packers NL
There are four games with a larger point spread than a field goal. FOUR. And one of those games the Bears are favored!!
Vegas is right more often than the pundits are; otherwise, there wouldn't be multi-billion dollar operations in the Vegas desert. And the point spreads say this is an extremely unknown year for the Bears. According to the spread, the Bears could conceivably go 14-3. Of course, the inverse is true as well. One additional tidbit I found interesting is that the 2023 media darlings, the Detroit Lions, the team that's supposed to shock the world and win the North, is only favored by 4.5 at home and 1 in Chicago. If they're so good, the point spreads would say as much.
All that said, there is a good chance the point spreads hold relatively true. Chalk is 7 wins counting the Vikings pick'em and Packers NL. Flip the Broncos, Commanders, and Lions games with a +1 point spread for the Bears, and we're suddenly at 10 wins. I don't see that as implausible. In fact, I think flipping a few more is conceivable, especially considering how unlucky the teams was on close games last year.
Final verdict: Bears go 10-7 and shock the world.