LT2_3
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Posts posted by LT2_3
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I don't think many are seeing the big picture here. Is this new contract to pay Forte for what he's already done or for what we expect him to do during the new contract. Unfortunately, in a salary cap system, teams can't really pay players for past performance for very long. It's commonplace for teams to pay a star a big salary for a year while they rehab from an injury or drop in performance while they see if they can return to form. After that the player takes a drastic pay reduction or gets released. The problem with the Forte negotiation is that it's not IF Forte's performance will decline, but WHEN.
All RBs decline in production as they age. Let's look at LaDanian Tomlinson as an example.
2006 - age 27 - 1815 yards rushing - 5.2 ypc - 16 games
2007 - age 28 - 1474 yards rushing - 4.7 ypc - 16 games
2008 - age 29 - 1110 yards rushing - 3.8 ypc - 16 games
2009 - age 30 - 730 yards rushing - 3.3 ypc - 14 games
Tomlinson never had a knee injury until the 2008 playoffs and his production ha already started declining. Forte has already had several knee injuries that make future knee injuries more likely. Tomlinson didn't have as many carries in college as Forte because as a freshman and sophmore he split carries with another RB.
Now when looking at a long term contract for Forte, he turns 27 this year. If his career declines similarly to how Tomlinson's did, he certainly should have a good season this year, but it would be all downhill from there. Then add to it that Forte started having knee injuries several years earlier than Tomlinson did and it's reasonable to question if his decline might start sooner.
See, this whole bit about guaranteed money is the whole crux of the issue. I would bet that the Bears would be willing to offer Forte the kind of money he's looking for as long as it's not guaranteed and is tied to performance like a vet minimum base salary and a $625,000 bonus for every 130 yard rush/receiving game. That would be $10 mil per year if he had 16 130 rush/receiving yard games. Those numbers are simply an example and I'm sure the formula could be tweeked to make it tiered at different levels, but the principle remains that they don't mind paying Forte well if he stays healthy and performs at a high level, but they don't want to pay him big money if he's injured or not playing well. That's where the guaranteed money becomes an issue. Heck, that's where the big unguaranteed salaries become an issue - because the team has to decide to pay him or release him in later years.
The more I think about it the more I think it makes the most sense to let him play for the franchise tender this year and see how his knees hold up by season's end before making a decision on next year. If he stays healthy and productive all year, then great! Franchise him again. I just honestly don't think he'll maintain his high level of productivity for 2 more seasons in a row.
Does this make sense to anyone else?
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They won't tag him for $14 million. He'll be gone.
Peace
It'll be higher than that by then, but as a RB turning 30, his contract demands should be quite a bit more reasonable.
The real question is when he hits his version of Ladanian Tomlinson's 2009.
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I'd go with either he has a good year or he gets hurt early again and is cut. No inbetween ground any more.
Yeah. He sure has had his share of injury issues. On the bright side, it's been reported that he's FINALLY healthy so maybe we see some good stuff from him this year - if he can stay healthy.
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http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Tougher-Game-of-Tag.html
There is no limit to how many times the same player can be franchise tagged.
From National Football Post/Andrew Brandt- If a player is coming off a season as a Tag player or had a very high salary number in his previous year, he is still protected, as the Tag will be 120% of his previous year’s number. And, although if a player is tagged three consecutive seasons he must have the highest Tag number available, there is no limitation on the number of consecutive uses of the Franchise Tag on the same player.
If the above is true, we really have nothing to worry about.
The only thing is that in year 3 Forte would get tagged with the QB amount - which this year is $14 million. I don't think we tag him a 3rd time at the much.
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I stand corrected, the later half of the first part of the schedule. I guess I should watch how I word everything, you seem to worry about every word.
It's called proofreading. Say what you mean and mean what you say.
If I had a dollar for every time there was an argument on the internet over someone not saying what they meant, I'd have more money than Zuckerberg.
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Moot point: Traded to Seattle
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Ehhhhhhhh...what's a "money"? I already know what professional rations are though.
LOL
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As of right now, Forte costs $7.7 million against the cap. If they sign Forte (for instance) to a 5 year deal with a $10 million signing bonus and a $1 million first year salary (with other money later in the deal also guaranteed) his cap hit would drop to $3 million for this year freeing up $4.7 million in cap space this year.
Does that explain it or do I need to explain guaranteed money after year 1 and signing bonus prorations too?
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Pompei has a informative article in the trib on this subject. He talked to an player agent and a team negotiator and both put a fair contract at 19.5 guart. and around 8 mil a year. I think from what we know of the Bears orgingal offer, just give him a 3 year deal at 24 mil with 17 guart. and be done with it. Although, I think Forte base is what everybody but the Bears think is a fair deal. Plus, he would want a 5 year deal.Other than team disruption, I have no problem with a two year F. tag and see him go away. He is creeping into the years where a RB makes a big drop off after 29 if you give him a long term deal.
We still don't know where the sides are though. One of the things I've read (from the Biggs article: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/footb...0,1196500.story ) is that Forte's agent has been in town and that he may have been managing Forte's expectations. That tells me that Forte may still have delusions of grandeur - as in AP or CJ money.
Come to think about it, Pompeii is usually a very pro-team writer. It could be that his whole tier article (blue/red-plus/red) could have been to get Forte to get his head out of the clouds regarding his value and not (as many have taken it) as trying to get the team to increase their offer.
Maybe it's a little of both.......
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With regard to Cutler, every year our line starts out bad and Cutler plays inconsistent. We have reason for hope, but certainly no reason to know. Obviously, Tice and PE are betting heavily that they've got enough to support our skill players.
I would suggest that for the past 2 seasons, Martz started the season calling his signature 5 man protection, 7 step drop plays putting undue pressure on the O-line until Lovie and Tice would reign in Martz on his play calling - at which point the O-line would perform better.
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My opinion. This is how I'd rank the top 10 RB's
1. AP
2. CJ
3. McCoy
4. Foster
5. Rice (Toss up between he and Forte)
6. Forte (Toss up between he and Rice)
7. MJD
8. Gore
9. Steven Jackson
10. Lynch
I'd put CJ off the list till he consistently regains his form.
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I agree and I know it's not that simple but after working a 14hr shift I wasn't going to type out all the variations, just saying I'm not a big fan of putting all our apples in one RB basket and I think that extra money is better spend elsewhere across the offense's roster. By the way it's the same with the QB...you pretty much have to draft them and then you have to pay the going rate. Rarely do guys like Cutler hit the market.
Fair enough.
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Whay does everyone forget Marshall? Because he hasn't played for us yet?
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AZ54 - The problem with trying to assign salary cap dollars like that is that the personnel acquisition piece doesn't work that way. The only way to get a top 10 OLT is to draft one. Once drafted, you pay them what their slot dictates, and once their rookie contract is up, you pay them the going rate or lose them which is moronic.
When applied to other positions, it works similarly.
One thing to note when it comes to guaranteed money for Forte, the 2 year franchise tag cost id $16.9 million. That should be the guaranteed money starting point.
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Just my impression, but I get the feeling that if Forte was willing to accept $18 the team would have gotten there.
$18 million is what the Bears will pay franchising him for 2 years. I guarantee the Bears are offering at least that.
I've read that Forte thinks he should be paid closer to AP and CJ.
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Webb was rated the worst LT in the league last year by PFF who does the stats thing. I agree the off season affected him, but what is his ceiling? 25th best? He needs to make a giant leap, we cant keep experimenting with the LT spot. It is to late now to do anything about it, so hope he jumps forward or C. Williams is solid if moved in to the starters role.
The knocks on him are penalties and sacks. The penalties are fixable and not putting him on an island for 7 step drops so often should improve his performance.
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The problem is in two years, he hasnt made any progress. You would assume anybody would improve in that time if they had talent. I havent seen it.
That's forgetting that there was no offseason last year. I think that the lack of OTAs, being able to work out with the training staff, minicamps, and meetings with coaches really stagnated him last year - in a year when he moved from the right side to left side.
I look at it as the difference between having a teacher review the stuff that's going to be on the test and having time to study vs. having a pop quiz and not even being assigned to read the chapters it covers.
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Another Predator Trying to get money out of a player with a past. Its all I see in the whole thing. No time off for Marshall, if he does a get a game for just being there, then RG has to be removed as Commish. Just because he is there dont mean he was trouble.
Goodell has never suspended a player without evidence of wrongdoing. There appears to be none so Marshall should be fine.
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After Cutler came out and made statements about the OLine, Webb told the press he would be ready to play that all off season he has been "eating and drinking football" and has Cutlers back.
It thats the case, last year he must have been on a fasting diet.
Well, last year they were locked out. I would think that would make eating and drinking football tougher when you have to cook it yourself and can't even talk to the (coaches) master chefs.
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OK sniffles, just trying to help you out. No need to get all...
LOL I'm done - even though Jason is wrong.
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My apologies for believing you'd be reasonable enough to actually read my posts and judge them by their content.
I did, it's just that you were not paying attentions to the stipulations that I had placed to show that the attention Cutler was getting is not a normal level of attention. For instance:
You said Brady and Cutler were the only ones with their photographs published nationally. Proven false. you missed the stipulation of outside the players home
You said Brady and Cutler were the only ones with TMZ pages. Proven false. you missed the stipulation of Directory and not page - meaning if you go to the "celebrities" directory, only Cutler and Brady are there
Now you're going to talk about photograph resolution and pixel depth? C'mon man.The only reason you mentioned that one is because it doesn't fit with a public place where paparazzi would hang out to photograph famous people. The only reason I brought it up is because they weren't paparazzi (professional) photos.
One who wishes not to be proven wrong will always find a way to discredit evidence contrary to their opinion, regardless of whether or not thet discrediting is valid.It's very honorable for you to point out your stubbornness on this issue. I thought your inability to understand the stipulations was out of character. You are usually a pretty bright guy.
Let's just agree to disagree, because I didn't really give a shit about him flipping the bird in the first place, still don't care, and we'll never agree on the extent to which a professional QB should expect photographers invading their perceived privacy.What we disagree about is whether a QB not dating a famous chick should expect the same level of attention as a QB dating a famous chick. I think there's a difference, you think that they should expect no privacy under any circumstances. We can agree to disagree though.
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Jason, the goalposts haven't moved. Re-read the thread. You'll see that this has been my point all along. Sure, I may not have restated all the criteria in each individual post. My apologies for thinking you were paying attention.
As for Romo at the movies, those were quite obviously not taken by a professional photographer, but more likely by a fan with their cell phone who submitted them to TMZ. That was not the case with Cutler.
My point remains that Cutler is under significantly more attention that is above and beyond the normal amount of attention of an NFL QB and it's due primarily to the fact of who he's in a relationship with - a Hollywood starlet that attracts the extra attention.
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Geez Jason - you appear to have the attention span of a dog surrounded by squirrels.
Again - the question is whether having paparazzi camped outside a players house was foreseeable.
So yet again, find one that doesn't include a player out in public where a photog might camp out looking for celebrities in general. It has to be of a player doing everyday things at home - like walking the dog or taking out the trash. It has to be an instance where the paparazzi is camped out just for the player.
You keep bringing up examples that don't fit the criteria. Keep trying though. The longer it takes you, the more it proves my point that it is not something that is a norm even for starting QBs in the NFL.
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What part about "shopping at Walmart" did you not understand? It's not like the photographers were inside Cutler's home.
Well then you missed the part about "Nationally Published" as the other criteria. If it were just some photoshopped picture of Cutler flipping someone off, I'm sure no one would have cared since it's not credible.
I'm beginning to think that you don't know that the photos of Cutler in question were published on TMZ.com http://www.tmz.com/person/jay-cutler/
If you check, you will find that the only other NFL QB that TMZ has a directory for is Tom Brady.
If you want to concede because your searches have turned up nothing, then fine. You've proven my point.
Is Forte worth what McCoy got?
in Bearstalk
Posted
Any position would get the QB tender in year 3 unless their previous tag + 20% is more. Then that's the tag.
The exception on that is that it's either the franchise amount, or 120% of the players previous year's salary. The 20% annual raise will limit infinite tagging eventually. For instance, the QB tag (or a 3rd time tagged guy) starting at $14 million would go:
$14.00
$16.80
$20.16
$24.19
$29.03
$34.84
$41.80