defiantgiant

Boley's good at what he does (blitzing) but he's a poor fit for the Bears, unless he's going to be strictly a third-down LB. He was bad enough against the run in Atlanta that they replaced him on 1st and 2nd down with a safety-LB tweener from the special teams unit, and got better production on running downs. Atlanta was just using Boley as a nickel by the end of the season, so with Manning (hopefully) staying in that spot, we wouldn't have a good use for him.

I didn't get to see the DB drills because of work: did you check out Alphonso Smith from Wake Forest and Sean Smith from Utah? I'm really interested to see how they did.

This would be a great under-the-radar pickup. Not a huge splash at one of the skill positions, but definitely a major upgrade. I could see Williams-Beekman-Kreutz-Moore-St. Clair being a pretty good line, with Buenning and Garza for depth and a developmental tackle in the wings. Not that Williams-Beekman-Kreutz-Moore-Vernon Carey wouldn't have been a way better one. Stupid Dolphins.

Oh, I agree. With Manning (probably) staying at nickel, corner's not a first-round need. Safety definitely is, though, barring some major FA move or trade. I was thinking of Jenkins' versatility more as an insurance policy, in case he really doesn't work out at FS. I hope that he'd be willing, ultimately, to make the switch. He'd be a high pick either way, and look at how many safeties are really the face of their defenses these days: would he really pass up the chance to be in Ed Reed's position or Troy Polamalu's? Chicago's a team where the fans know their safeties' names, for sure. If he's TOTALLY adamant about playing corner, though, I agree that they shouldn't take him in the first just to be a corner. They can get Jairus Byrd in the 2nd or 3rd: he offers similar intelligence and versatility, if not the same speed and ball skills.

Yeah, I'd still be surprised if Smith fell out of the 1st, barring some further red flag. Even with the Combine stuff and some teams projecting him to guard, he'd still make the best guard prospect available. I doubt Crabtree falls far at all; although I'd love it if he were around at #18, he won't be. The guy who interests me a LOT is Malcolm Jenkins. He ran in the mid-to-high 4.5s at the Combine, and a lot of teams think that's too slow for a corner. If you play a lot of man or bump-and-run, that probably IS too slow. With Vontae Davis demolishing every workout in sight and Jenkins looking more like a free safety, I think he could fall to the middle of the first round. I think there's starting to be a real chance either that Jenkins is still around at 18, or that he falls far enough that the Bears would only have to trade up a couple of spots. If they don't have to give up the farm, I'd love for the Bears to move up a few spots and grab him. I like Rashad Johnson and Louis Delmas, but I think Jenkins would be a much better FS than either of them. He offers some versatility, too, since the Bears' scheme doesn't demand corners with a ton of speed. They're one of a few teams that could still be considering him at both positions.

I hope that Heyward-Bey keeps his stock high, if only so he'll push the receivers I actually want into the second round. He's tall and fast, but he's very raw. He was brutally underutilized in Maryland's offense: that's kind of a plus, because his lack of production isn't really a concern, but it's also a bad thing, since he missed out on a lot of development as a receiver. He only ran a few routes in college, and his hands are OK, but not great. We need a dependable possession guy who can get open underneath and be Orton's safety valve. Furthermore, we need somebody who can do that from Game 1 next season. The only thing I'd depend on DHB for his first season would be running a straight go route. A lot of people have projected him to the Ravens, and that makes a bunch of sense. They have a strong-armed QB in Flacco, and a dependable vet who can handle the underneath routes in Derrick Mason. For my money, if we're going receiver on the first day, we need a guy like Robiskie or Nicks who can get open on a crossing route and make the catch. If Lovie wants a pure speed merchant, go get Johnny Knox on day 2. On turf, he's at least as fast as DHB, and his catching and route-running are on a similar level.

I assume you're talking about his time on the Jets' practice squad. I can't claim to know what went on with the Jets' talent evaluation, but I really don't think it's relevant. I didn't say he was an elite back in 2004. I said he's at that level now. As for why he didn't produce until last year, ask yourself who he was behind on the depth chart: Jacobs and Tiki Barber. Once he got touches, he produced. Would you say DeAngelo Williams wasn't an elite back this season, just because it was his first one over 1000 yards? As for carrying the load, that's not his job. Jacobs is the bellcow on their roster, Ward is a change of pace, pass-catching back. But if you start listing the change of pace backs who are at his level or better, you'll be talking about the best guys in the NFL for that role. Let me put this another way: that a good back will do poorly behind a bad o-line does NOT imply that a bad back will perform well behind a good one. You can say Jacobs wouldn't do well in Chicago (although I don't agree with that) but that doesn't mean that Jacobs isn't good, or that the Cedric Bensons of the world would be all-stars in New York. You're assuming your conclusion here: in order to prove that the Giants' line is responsible for their success running the ball, you're baldly asserting that the backs aren't. Since it's either the backs, the line, or (as I've been saying) both, you're basically saying "it's the line, therefore it's the line." That's not an argument backed up by evidence, it's a tautology. Look, Forte is awesome. Behind him, though, who do we have? Adrian Peterson had one season with over 100 touches. In that season, he averaged 3.4 a carry. Angelo is talking about giving another back 10-15 touches a game, so that they can reduce Forte's touches to 20-25. We've already seen what AP will do with that kind of workload. He's versatile and good on special teams, so I like him as a third-string emergency RB, but he's not a guy who should be in your starting rotation. You say Peterson would produce like Ward behind the Giants' o-line, but what are you basing that on? Ward is way faster, with better lateral quickness, and he's almost 20 pounds heavier, to boot. Ward put up more yards in a season and a half of real playing time than Peterson has in his entire career. The only area where I see even comparable ability from Peterson is in receiving, and even then, I'm not sure he's as good as Ward. I don't get the Wolfe-Sproles comparison at all. I keep saying this on these boards, but Wolfe has averaged (excluding one long run on a fake punt) under 3 yards per carry thus far in his career. That's running inside, running off tackle, sweeps, whatever. Just because he's a similar size doesn't mean he's Darren Sproles. Darren Sproles is listed at 5'6" 181 by the Chargers. Dantrell Savage from KC is 5'8", 182. Justin Forsett from the Seahawks is 5'8", 194. I'm not ready to call either of those guys the next Darren Sproles, and the same goes for Wolfe. He might end up being good, but he hasn't yet proven that he IS good. Sproles is faster than Wolfe, is built stockier, and has a hell of a lot more leg drive. Saying Wolfe is equal to Sproles is like saying Sproles is equal to Maurice Jones-Drew. They're three different backs on three very different levels of ability, it doesn't matter that they're all short. All I'm saying is this: we need to shore up the line, but that won't turn Wolfe or Peterson into the complement backs we need. Peterson's a third-stringer and Wolfe is an unknown. You can't say with any certainty that either of them would produce given 15 touches a game. The Bears need to get a back who they can be SURE will produce. Fred Taylor would be a great pickup.

Crabtree's saying that he'll still run at his pro day, then have the surgery afterward. Terrell Owens had a very similar injury and had no ill effects after, so I doubt it'll drop Crabtree at all. He should be able to run a passable 40 at his pro day, then go get a screw put in his foot.

A lot of people get good results from rookie LTs. Before Williams' back injury was news, I thought he'd basically be a redux of D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Brick was definitely good enough to start his first year. Oher, though, I don't know. He's got great strength and mobility, but he's not even close to as polished as Williams was coming out of college. It wouldn't surprise me if he takes at least a year to really develop. That said, they could do a lot worse than resigning St. Clair as the starting RT and drafting Oher to take over in a year or two. If Williams is healthy, he and St. Clair should be at least above-average as bookends; two years from now, Williams/Oher could be WAY above average.

I'll go position-by-position here: This year's class of running backs is so deep that I'd be hesitant to spend a first on one, even if there's a back of Moreno's caliber available. There aren't that many teams in desperate need of a back either, so I think it's pretty likely that, when you look at the top 10 backs in the draft, at least a couple are going to last until the second day. The Bears could use a good power back, but I'd much rather have Andre Brown, Shonn Greene, or Rashad Jennings in the 3rd/4th than Wells in the 1st. I'd be OK with Oher as the first-round pick, so long as they're pretty confident he'll work out mentally. His bench doesn't concern me that much: even though some good tackles put up good numbers there, some very good ones only do average. Yeah, Jake Long had 37 reps, but Ryan Clady had 24 and Jeff Otah had 27. Remember when that guy Ramirez put up 40 reps? He's not doing a whole lot with the Lions now. Honestly, the only linebacker I'd want with the Bears' first pick is Aaron Curry, and there's no way he's falling to 18. If they're going to go linebacker, though, I'd rather trade up to get him than take Laurinaitis. Laurinaitis is smart and he's good in coverage, but he's got a ton of holes in his game. I'd be surprised if he ends up anything more than a slightly above-average starter. Defensive end just isn't a need that has to be addressed early. We need a situational pass-rushing end, and this draft is absolutely stocked with them. Plus, I do trust Angelo to make good second-day picks on defense - he's got a very good track record when it comes to that. Even if we needed to immediately replace Brown or Ogunleye as a base end, I'd be looking at somebody like Kruger from Utah in the 2nd. Ideally, I'd like the Bears to go defensive back with the first pick, barring some can't-miss guy like Curry or Crabtree dropping precipitously. That's assuming that they're going to add a decent lineman in free agency, then draft another one in the later rounds. If they address DB pretty substantially in FA, I'd be OK with getting a lineman in the first. Either way, I'd like to see a receiver like Nicks or Robiskie in the second.

I'm definitely not disagreeing with the need to pick a safety in the draft, but I honestly think the best safety prospects this year are all corners. Malcolm Jenkins (not that he's likely to fall to us) would probably make an even better safety than corner. Chicago'd have to trade up for him, though. If we're going safety in the late first, I'd have Sean Smith right up there with Louis Delmas, maybe even higher. Smith has said in interviews that he'd be happy to play safety, and compares pretty favorably to a guy like Asomugha (who played safety in college.) He's big enough to lay a hit, and he used to play receiver, which shows when you check out his ball skills. He could be a phenomenal centerfielder type of safety. If we're picking a guy in the 2nd, I like Jairus Byrd better than Rashad Johnson. Byrd's more impressive physically, has great awareness and intelligence for the game, and he actually used to be listed as a safety at Oregon. He transitioned from a sort of rover position to corner, but he could definitely go back to safety.

He's better on the strong side, but he can play free safety, too. The Giants move their safeties around a lot, and Wilson would be a starter at FS on the Bears right now.

Well, it's not an either/or proposition here: obviously the Giants' line is awesome, but Jacobs, Ward, and Bradshaw aren't just some guys off the street. If Chicago could build an o-line of that caliber, we'd have a lot of success running the ball. That said, it's going too far to say that "anyone" can run behind New York's line - all three of those backs are really, really good. Look at the success the Giants had running the ball: there's a reason that you don't see a running game like theirs that often. To have two 1000-yard rushers and three guys over 5 YPC in the NFL, you need elite backs AND and elite o-line. Upgrading the line will go a long way toward getting the Bears' running game going, but you can't undervalue a good platoon of backs. Forte is awesome, but Peterson and Wolfe aren't Ward and Bradshaw. We need a backup who's good enough to start if he has to: Fred Taylor would be ideal.

Payne's not great at free safety, either. Better than Manning, but not by much. I'd like to see Gibril Wilson signed; he can play FS, and he'd be better than anybody we've got currently. It also couldn't hurt to get a defensive back like Jairus Byrd or Sean Smith - either of them could wind up a very good free safety.

Under no circumstances should the Bears take Sanchez at 18, but especially not if Oher's available. Sanchez has a year of collegiate production on an absolutely stacked team, fair-to-middling arm strength, and a significant preexisting knee injury. Granted, he has a lot going for him in terms of decision-making and accuracy, but look at the track record for QBs who declare early. Historically, they don't do well, and I'd want to see a lot more evidence than 16 starts before I committed first-round money to a quarterback.

You know, I hadn't checked the o-line stats before I posted that, I just remembered our line (mostly St. Clair) giving up a million sacks. But looking at FO's numbers, our line was actually mid-pack in pass protection (11th overall, 5.3% sack rate, 29 sacks total) which is way better than I thought. Meanwhile, our runners got stuffed more often than all but 5 teams'. I guess we do need an upgrade. Maybe it isn't such a bad plan to resign St. Clair and have him compete for right tackle. The only runs averaging better than 4 yards this season were off left tackle and between the guards.

The Tribune is reporting that the Bears had an "extended meeting" with Michael Oher yesterday: ""I think it went really well," Oher said of the meeting. "We talked for a long time. We talked about plays, technique, the things that they run up there." Oher is a projected first-rounder, and the Bears own the No. 18 overall pick. Chris Williams, last year's first-round pick, is expected to start at left tackle. The uncertainty with St. Clair and the impending retirement of Tait could create an immediate hole at right tackle. "I think I can play left and right," Oher said. "I can't argue about what position I want to play. I'm just glad to be getting an opportunity to play in the NFL." "

Denver runs a zone-blocking scheme that allows one-cut runners to be very successful. This is why "anyone" can run behind their line: the type of back that they've used, historically, isn't nearly as good in other systems. Clinton Portis is a notable exception, but think about what their other backs (Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Ron Dayne, etc.) did when they went to non-ZBS teams. Not a whole lot. Check Ryan Grant for a reverse example: he went from the Giants' practice squad/4th string RB to the Packers, who run a zone system. Yeah, he's put up over 2000 yards with Green Bay, but it would have been very surprising to see him have a similar degree of success in New York. The Bears don't run a ZBS, as far as I know, so the comparison to Denver isn't really that apt. I agree that the o-line needs to run-block a little better, but their primary problem in '08 was pass protection.

Not a need for the Bears, to be honest. The interior d-line was well above league-average this past season. Replacing Dvoracek with Adams made it even better, and both Idonije and Marcus Harrison played well in relief. Haynesworth is an awesome player (when he's on) but we need defensive backs, o-line, wideouts, a pass-rushing DE, and a QB. I'd even rate strongside linebacker and change-of-pace back as bigger needs. Basically, the only position we need less than a DT is a tight end.

I like that they're giving Wolfe a shot, but he's far from a proven commodity. Even if he works out, he's only going to be able to take on certain duties - we all saw what happens when you run him up the middle against Pat and Kevin Williams. We could use a scatback, but we also really need an established back to spell Forte. I'd love for the Bears to give Fred Taylor a 1 or 2 year deal. He was, by all accounts, a great mentor to Maurice Jones-Drew: even though he realized they had MJD in the wings to replace him, Taylor taught the guy, went over film study with him, etc. He'd be a great addition in place of Kevin Jones.

I'm not so sure Carey will be back with the Dolphins. He's been in Miami literally his entire life, and he's been a solid player for the Dolphins, but apparently Parcells' staff are doing this "no-negotiation" approach to contracts this offseason. They've just been offering what they think is a fair value for the player, take it or leave it. This is why they'll probably lose Crowder: he thinks he can get a better deal elsewhere, and he knows he's not going to get a better one from Miami than what they already offered. I don't know if Crowder's going to get the contract he wants, but Carey almost certainly will. If the Dolphins lowball him and stick to their current policy, he'll be getting offered a much bigger paycheck somewhere else. If he's willing to take a pay cut to stay with his hometown team, that's one thing, but it seems like Miami's setting themselves up to lose a bidding war for him.

Landry's primarily a strong safety, and he had a major spinal injury from which he still hasn't been medically cleared. I'd take a look at Atogwe before him. Michael Huff and Anthony Smith are both interesting, but they'd both be projects.

If Chris Williams is healthy, which is a big if, then he'll be the guy at left tackle. He's definitely missed out on a bunch of playing time and experience, but a lot of reports have been saying that he's gotten a lot stronger in the weight room since coming to the Bears, which is good. Upper-body strength was a big issue with him in the draft, so if he's improved on that, he could still be a better tackle this year than he was pre-injury. Jury's still out on him, but there's no reason yet to think that he can't start. That said, if Williams gets hurt, we need depth. I think the Bears have got to resign St. Clair, then sign Vernon Carey from the Dolphins. Carey's a very good right tackle or an above-average left tackle. Also, he's only 27, has never missed a start in four years, and he and St. Clair used to be teammates in Miami. The Dolphins have their left tackle in Jake Long and it's been reported that they think Carey's replaceable on the right side. The Bears would have to shell out for him, but not like they would for Gross. With Carey and St. Clair, Chicago would have some options. They can go Williams-Beekman-Kreutz-Garza-Carey, with St. Clair as a reserve tackle/guard. Then if something happens with Williams (another injury, some other major problem) they could switch Carey to the left side and start St. Clair on the right, which would be preferable to having St. Clair at LT for any large stretch of time.

Yeah, Heyward-Bey will be a major developmental project. He could step in right away on a team that had at least one good possession receiver but needed a deep threat. A lot of people have him going to Baltimore, which would be a good fit - Derrick Mason's very reliable, and DHB could stretch the field some. The Bears are the opposite, though. We have a developing speed receiver; what we need is a reliable, polished guy like Nicks, Iglesias, or Robiskie. Kenny Britt should be on the radar, too, although he's a little rawer.

Yeah, I agree with that, for the most part. Rashied Davis isn't a starting-caliber wideout. He's good on special teams, so we should keep him for that, but he needs to be 4 or 5 on the depth chart. I'd love to see Hester and Holt starting on the outside, with Bennett in the slot. Then have Rideau, Davis, and a draft pick (in no particular order) as the 4, 5, and 6. I think we should probably keep six receivers next season, since there's really no proven player at the position. Holt would be an upgrade as a #2 receiver, and he'd allow Bennett to learn for another year or two (while still contributing as a slot receiver) before moving into the #2 spot. Then either Rideau or our draft pick would (ideally) be able to move up to #3 on the depth chart. We need to build a receiver corps through the draft, it's true, but we also need a 1-2 year stopgap. Holt could definitely be that. EDIT: If anyone's still wondering whether this is a legit possibility, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Rams were shopping Holt and Orlando Pace at the Senior Bowl. They were only asking for a third-rounder, according to the report. I think Holt still has some gas in the tank, the Rams just didn't throw to him nearly as much this season. When he was targeted, his production was pretty close to 2005 and 2007, albeit not quite at those levels. He got 148 targets in 2007, and made 93 catches for 1189 yards, for 12.8 yards per catch. If you factor in the number of times he was targeted, he caught 62.8% of the passes that went his way and the Rams averaged about 8.03 yards for every time they threw in his direction. In 2005, it was 163 targets, and he caught 102 for 1331 yards. That's a 62.6% catch rate and an 8.16-yard average per pass attempted to him. There's kind of an outlier year in 2006: Holt's catch rate dropped to 52% and his yards-per-target went down to 6.65. However, that's probably because he got a massive number of targets (179) and it's hard to produce at the same level when you're the focal point of the passing game to that extent. Only two receivers came close to that number in '08, Brandon Marshall (182 targets) and Andre Johnson (170). In 2008, though, he got just 109 targets, of which he caught 64 for 796 yards. That's almost a 59% catch rate and 12.4 YPC. He dropped off a fairly small, but significant, amount if you put it in terms of production-per-target: in 2007, the Rams averaged 8.03 yards every time they threw at Holt. In 2008, they averaged 7.3 yards throwing his way. So he's not producing quite like he used to, but he's close. Now compare that to Marty Booker. In 2008, Booker was targeted 49 times and made 14 catches for 211 yards. That's a higher YPC (15.1) but an abysmal 28.5% catch rate, and an average of 4.3 yards gained by throwing to him. In fact, nobody on the Bears' roster this season was better than Holt in terms of production-per-target or catch rate. Devin Hester caught 52 of 92 (56.5%) for 665 yards - an average gain per target of 7.23. Lloyd caught 26 of 50 (52%) for 364 yards - averaging 7.28 per target. Rashied Davis caught 35 of 67 (52.2%) for 445 yards - averaging 6.64 yards per target. Factor in that Orton played better than Marc Bulger did this past season, and it's not crazy to think that Holt would do at least as well in Chicago as he did in St. Louis. Statistically, Holt would be a massive upgrade over Booker and a moderate upgrade over Davis, too. Given that Booker and Davis had 18 starts between them in 2008, I'd say that replacing them with Holt should have a significant impact on the passing game.