defiantgiant

I think we can still be hopeful, though. Guys like Jones, Cobb, Edmond Gates, Torrey Smith, and Leonard Hankerson moved their stock up, but that also means they pushed somebody else down. If some team falls in love with Cobb or Smith or Hankerson toward the end of the 1st round, then Jon Baldwin could slip down into the top of the 2nd (especially since he ran slower than advertised.) If that happens, maybe the Bears could trade up from their 2nd and grab him. I'm not that impressed with his separation skills, but he's unstoppable on jump balls and definitely fits the "he's open even when he's not open" cliche. He's going to struggle to break free from NFL corners, but he's definitely not going to struggle to jump over them. The guy has a better vertical leap than Larry Fitzgerald. Also, was anybody else was watching Greg Little from UNC? That dude looks like a beast. I thought he might be a Boldin-type player, but he's built more like Andre Johnson. He looked like he could throw on 10 more pounds and play linebacker. He had a decent 40 for a possession guy (somewhere in the 4.5s, if I remember right) and put up insane numbers everywhere else (27 reps on the bench, 40.5" vertical, 10'9" broad jump.) Little could still be around in the 3rd-4th round, and I think he'd be a great developmental pickup. Wideouts with that kind of power and after-the-catch ability don't come around that often.

Yeah, Cutler significantly outperformed Palmer, despite having a WAY worse o-line and no go-to wideout. Cincinnati's o-line is underrated...Whitworth is a top 12 left tackle (allowed just 1.5 sacks last season) and their interior line is very solid. From left tackle through right guard, every member of the Bengals' o-line would start over his counterpart on the Bears. Webb could maybe compete, because Cincinnati's guys at RT are underwhelming. If Palmer could barely get it done behind that o-line, how's he going to look in Chicago? Palmer's numbers are not better than Cutler's. Palmer put up more total yardage than Cutler, but that's misleading, since he threw the ball 586 times to Cutler's 432. Look at their yards-per-attempt, and it's clear that Cutler's on a completely different level. Palmer averaged 6.8 yards per passing attempt, which puts him 21st in the league (tied with Hasselbeck and Ryan Fitzpatrick.) That's a pretty poor mark, unless you're a game-manager in an ultra-conservative passing offense. Cutler, on the other hand, had 7.6 yards per attempt - tied with Matt Schaub for 6th in the league. The only guys who did better were Rivers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Vick, and Brady. I mean, compare their stat lines if Cutler had thrown the ball as many times as Palmer: Palmer: 362 completions on 586 attempts, for 3,970 yards, 26 TDs, 20 Interceptions Cutler: 354 completions on 586 attempts for 4,441 yards, 31 TDs, 21 Interceptions Here's my two cents on the trade: Palmer was good back in 2006-2007, but his arm strength has been declining ever since he refused to get Tommy John surgery, and his mobility disappeared when that Steelers DT destroyed his knee. The Bears need a QB with enough arm to throw through the wind at Soldier Field and enough scrambling ability to compensate for a bad o-line. Palmer has neither. On top of that, his ball placement has gotten really hit-or-miss since the elbow injury, which would hurt him in Martz's offense. I don't know if it's because he's lost some velocity on the ball or what, but last season it looked like he couldn't lead his receivers or fit the ball into a tight space. And that's all ignoring the fact that he's 31 years old...he's only going to get worse from here on out. Getting AJ Green would be great for Chicago, but losing Cutler for Palmer would send them right back to square one at QB. They finally got that position solidified after god knows how long...if there's a worse move they could make than trading Cutler away, I can't think of what it would be. It'd be one step forward, ten steps back.

Edmund Gates, Johnny Knox's old teammate from Abilene Christian and Tyler JC, ran an unofficial 4.37. And when they put him on the simul-cam with the other super-fast wideouts (Ricardo Lockette, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith) he had a full step or even two steps on ALL of them after 20 yards. There must be something in the water down there at ACU. Gates seems like a less-polished version of Knox - similar height/weight (6'0" 189 pounds) on a slightly bigger frame, similar vertical speed.

I think we have to wait and see how bad it really is. Very few guys come out of college without some kind of injury history, and some injuries are manageable with an NFL training staff. Then again, Tommie Harris had a knee issue coming out of college, and look what happened there.

Yeah, broad jump is just supposed to measure balance and lower-body explosiveness. In general, I think the blocking/mirroring drills are probably more helpful for evaluating linemen than any of the pure workout numbers. I don't know about broad jump, but plenty of guys who are beasts on the bench press don't actually turn out to be good blockers.

Usually I'd agree with you on this, but Sanders' durability problems are so bad that I wonder if he's even worth the roster spot. Odds are he'll be on IR by Week 3, and then they'll be trying to fill his spot with a practice squad guy instead of using it on a free agent or draft pick in the first place.

Yeah, it depends on the new CBA, whether UFAs have to have four years in the league or five. The players want four, the NFL wants five. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Rotoworld's reporting that the transition tag is only available for players with at least six years in the league, so Rice isn't eligible for that, either. Looks like the only way the Vikings retain him is if the new CBA makes him a restricted free agent instead of a UFA. Even then, they might not be able to do it.

Yeah, this is exactly it. They're a pretty good group that looks worse than they are because of the protection issues, but even if the protection were good, there's no go-to guy there. Knox, ideally, is their deep threat #2 receiver. Hester has a lot of talent, but it seems like he's better off as a full-time returner with a set package of plays on offense. Both those guys can get open against an NFL corner no problem, but they seem to struggle with being in the right place at the right time. I think Knox definitely has the potential to keep improving, but I don't see him turning into a go-to receiver. He's just not physical enough fighting for the ball, and he doesn't run his routes consistently enough. Bennett, on the other hand, is very consistent in terms of hands and route-running, but his lack of speed and shiftiness means that good corners can stick to him no problem. I don't think he'll ever be a guy who can reliably beat a team's #1 or #2 CB...you want him in 3WR sets matched up on a linebacker or a nickel corner. In that role, he can be a very valuable possession receiver, but he's not going to be an Anquan Boldin or Brandon Marshall...a possession receiver who can be your go-to guy against a team's best corner. None of those three can consistently get loose from coverage AND make a play. They all either do one or the other, but not both. Once they get their o-line fixed, the Bears need to concentrate on getting a receiver who can do both.

Yeah, he's in that "can win with this guy" category to me. Nothing special, but gets the job done and he's pretty consistent. He never puts up big yardage because they're such a run-heavy offense, but he's a high-percentage, efficient passer. Leftwich is a solid backup; if he had ever managed to fix that slow delivery, he'd be a decent starter. That's the only real blemish on Musgrave's resume, I think, and fixing a guy's throwing motion is a dicey proposition even with a good QB coach. Not every QB can change the motion he's been using for his whole career. Still, Musgrave didn't manage to rebuild Leftwich's delivery, and that long windup kept him from ever being the franchise QB he was drafted to be. He's a good backup, but you don't want him starting unless your o-line can hold a pocket for 7-8 seconds every play.

Its not officially outlawed, but yeah, you're right that it's never been done again. My sense is that there's a kind of gentleman's agreement not to use them. I don't think the Bears would actually use a poison pill: if nothing else, it'd make other teams very reluctant to cut a deal with them in the future, and I think Balta's right that the new CBA will probably explicitly outlaw them. Well, I did say this was my ideal offseason - the thread's not called "My Cautiously Optimistic But Ultimately Realistic Offseason." But even if we're being more realistic, I don't think Rice is necessarily a blue-chip player, and I wouldn't be shocked if he hit FA. He had a knee injury in each of his first two seasons, and ended with under 550 yards in those two seasons combined. Then he had his one breakout year, which was great. But then in 2010 he had that hip surgery, missed 10 games and didn't even crack 300 yards on the year. In total, the guy's missed a season's worth of games in four seasons as a pro, and he's only had one good season out of the four. He's young and has talent, but the injuries and the possibility that he's a one year wonder mean he's not a blue-chip player. He's a far cry from Vincent Jackson - Jackson's proven over multiple seasons that he can produce at a high level, and he's durable. But Jackson's not going to hit the open market and Rice could. That's why I can see the Bears making an offer that the Vikes can't match: Rice is worth more to them in FA than he is to the Vikes. The Bears are in a position to make one more run this season while the core of that defense is still together. The Vikings are going to be developing a new QB, retooling their defensive line and secondary, and the left side of their o-line is in major decline...they're a year or two away from making another playoff run. Plus, the Vikings have another big-time receiving threat in Percy Harvin, whereas the Bears desperately need a #1 receiver and Rice could be the only one available as a free agent. I can see Rice's value to Chicago being a lot higher than his value to Minnesota, and I can see the Bears being a lot more willing to take a gamble on his injuries. Think about what happened when the Vikings signed Berrian. It's not that the Bears couldn't match the offer, it's that they didn't want to because they valued the player less. This could be the same situation going the other way, just with a better player. I could see Chicago making him an offer that is reasonable to them, but unreasonable from Minnesota's perspective. If that happens, even if he's transition-tagged, we get him.

I'd be all for signing Harris if he clears medically. Martz's scheme needs two tackles who you can leave one-on-one in pass protection, and Harris is definitely that. Signing him would give us the option to leave Williams at guard if Tice thinks that's his best position, and have Harris play LT. On the other hand, we could put Williams at LT, Harris at RT, and have the chance to bring Webb along more slowly before he competes for a starting job. And if Williams or Harris got hurt, we'd have Webb waiting on the bench. Bottom line, I'd like the signing. It'd give us a lot of positional flexibility and depth, more youth along the line, and a guy who's proven he can protect Cutler (the last time he was blocking for Jay, Harris only allowed 1.5 sacks all season.)

I'd love to have OJ Atogwe in the defensive backfield, but I agree with what's been said: that money needs to be spent elsewhere. He's going to take a lot of cash to sign, and the Bears have at LEAST three or four needs more pressing than safety (O-line, WR, DT, CB.) Atogwe's an awesome player; if it were another uncapped year and the McCaskeys had the cash, I'd say do it. But if the front office is operating under normal constraints, then there are other areas they need to patch up first.

Yeah, I saw that some Vikings guy said they're still deciding whether it'll be him or Greenway. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. If they transition tag him, though, he can still negotiate with other teams, the Vikings just get a right to match any offer. So that means teams could make an offer with a poison pill (although that's frowned upon) or just price him out of the Vikings' range. If that happens and he signs, the Vikings don't get any compensation from the other team. So he might cost Chicago some more cash, but he wouldn't take any draft picks to get.

Word is that they're going to franchise tag Chad Greenway unless they can lock him up. If that happens, it would mean they can't franchise Rice.

It's always going to cost more to sign a guy in FA, because you're bidding against other teams. But the Bears need a #1 receiver this year, and they can't get one in the draft unless they sacrifice picking o-line, which is stupid. I agree with the one-year-wonder concern about Rice, and I'd personally rather have Vincent Jackson, but Rice is probably going to hit the open market, which means we could sign him and still have all our draft ammo to fix the o-line and replace Tommie Harris. I wouldn't hate it if we traded for Jackson, but it would probably mean that we couldn't get Nevis in the 2nd and we'd lose another pick later in the draft. I think Vincent Jackson versus Rice, Nevis, and a 4th-rounder is at least equal value.

So this is old news, but hey it's the offseason. After the Vikings canned Childress they hired Bill Musgrave - the Falcons' QB coach - to be their offensive coordinator. I don't know how Musgrave is as an Xs and Os guy, but his track record developing QBs is seriously impressive. If history's any indicator, the Bears might have to watch out for the Vikings' QB (whoever it is) in 2011. Check out the QBs Musgrave has worked with: 1997 (Raiders) - got Jeff George to throw for over 3,900 yards, 29 TDs, 9 picks, 91.2 QB rating. 1999-2000 (Panthers) - got Steve Beuerlein to throw for over 4,400 yards, 36 TDs, 15 picks, 94.6 QB rating in 1999. Beuerlein made the Pro Bowl in 1999. He had a down year in 2000, but still threw for 3700 yards and 19 TDs. 2001-2002 (UVa) - developed Matt Schaub, who finished his college career with school records in yards passing, touchdowns, career completion percentage, etc. 2003-2004 (Jaguars) - developed Byron Leftwich and David Garrard 2005 (Redskins) - got Mark Brunell to throw over 3000 yards, 23 TDs, 10 picks, 85.9 QB rating. The Skins went 10-6 and made a playoff run. 2006-2010 (Falcons) - had one year with Vick, then developed Matt Ryan. So a couple of things jump out at me: - A lot of Musgrave's guys aren't spectacular athletes, but they don't make mistakes. Almost all his starting QBs had great TD-Int ratios and high completion percentages. - He's developed several young QBs - Schaub, Garrard, and Ryan - into solid starters. - He's worked magic on several journeyman-type vets near the end of their careers - George, Beuerlein, and Brunell. All those guys had career years under Musgrave. ...if I were running a team like the Vikings, with a glaring hole at quarterback, Musgrave's exactly who I'd want to hire. So now that they've got the coach, who do you think the Vikings will get to play QB? Who's our defense going to have to go against twice a year? My two cents: they could draft a guy for Musgrave to develop, but I don't see many QBs in this year's class that fit with his history. Gabbert and Newton will probably be gone by the time the Vikings pick, and I don't think Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, or Christian Ponder are Musgrave's kind of guys - they've all got some problems with reading defenses and decision-making, areas where Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub excelled. My feeling is that they'll look for a veteran QB, since Musgrave has demonstrated that he can get franchise-QB production out of journeyman vets. I don't see it being Vince Young, as much as I would love to see him lofting up pick-sixes to Urlacher twice a season. McNabb would make more sense: he's an accurate passer, Musgrave's background is in the West Coast offense, and I could see McNabb having a comeback year if he gets back into the scheme he knows. The thing I'm really worried about, though, is that they'll swing a deal for Kyle Orton. He seems like exactly Musgrave's kind of QB: heady, accurate, makes great decisions with the football, gets the most out of his physical tools. Denver's new regime has made it pretty clear that they're sticking with Tebow, so Orton will probably be available. If I were Frazier or Musgrave, he'd be at the top of my list. I hope it doesn't happen: it was bad enough that he got dealt away from Chicago, but it'd just be wrong to see him in purple and gold.

I think this is why Tice is drawing interest despite the o-line playing poorly. The rest of the league recognizes that he got stuck with less talent up front than just about any other team in the NFL, but he still managed to coach them up and keep it from being a total disaster. I don't think anybody in the league did more with less this year. That depends. Martz had Orlando Pace in St. Louis, who would have fit the bill in either system. I think the biggest difference is at RT. Martz needs a right tackle who's more athletic and can be left on an island in pass protection, whereas Tice has had huge road-grading guys like Korey Stringer. Thankfully, I think Webb has the physical ability to do both, if he can develop the mental part of his game.

I like Garza just fine, but I think ideally he'd at least have serious competition for his starting job next year. He's not as effective as he was a couple of years ago, although he isn't yet in the must-replace category like Omiyale. It wouldn't be a total disaster if we're still starting him next year, but I'd rather he were a swing backup, since he can play all three interior line positions.

Yeah, he was a disappointment at $7 million this year, but I have no problem with keeping him as a backup for barely above the vet minimum next year. I'd like it if they gave short-yardage duties to somebody else, though.

Yeah, ideally I'd like them to sign a starter for the interior line in free agency and draft another o-lineman in the 1st. Webb's got potential at RT, Kreutz probably has one more adequate season in him, and Williams should still be in the starting lineup, just depending on where they think his best position is. They just need to get the other two positions filled.

Sign Sidney Rice and Davin Joseph, then draft: 1 - Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida Day 1 starter at LG, lets Chris Williams move back to LT. A line of Williams-Pouncey-Kreutz-Joseph-Webb should be more than adequate, with Omiyale as the swing tackle and Garza backing up the interior line. 2 - Drake Nevis, DT, LSU Ready-made three-technique DT. Has drawn comparisons to Tommie Harris in college, should be able to replace Tommie early in his rookie season. Quick off the snap, has a decent pass-rush repertoire already, and is surprisingly strong for his size. Allows the team to cut Tommie and use Toeaina/Melton to spell Adams and Nevis. That's a solid d-line rotation. 3 - Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville Ballhawking zone corner who can tackle; ideal for a Tampa scheme. Also, is comparable to Tillman in terms of size/frame (he goes 6'0" and 190 pounds.) Could compete with Jennings and Bowman as a rookie and eventually take over for Tillman in a season or two. 4 - Jake Kirkpatrick, OC, TCU Eventual replacement for Kreutz down the line. Solid, intelligent center, try-hard guy. Nasty run blocker, improving in pass protection. 5 - DeAndre Brown, WR, Southern Miss This is a high-risk pick given the guy's injury history and character concerns, but I think the potential reward is worth it in Round 5. If he can recover fully from the leg injury and get his head on straight, he's got the talent to be an impact starter. 6 - Doug Hogue, OLB, Syracuse Fast, athletic linebacker with coverage ability. Needs time to develop, but has the physical traits of a Tampa-2 OLB. Can help the Bears reload on coverage teams if they lose Wolfe, Graham, or Rashied Davis. UDFA - Robert Hughes, FB, Notre Dame Short, stocky fullback with significant experience at halfback and great size/power for short-yardage work. Thinking we convert him back to RB as a short-yardage/goal-line specialist. Comfortable in pass protection and can catch the ball, which makes it less of a playcalling limitation to insert him at halfback on third and short. Could take over short-yardage duties from Chester Taylor and be used kind of like the Chargers use Mike Tolbert. If everything plays out this way, then: 1.) the O-line has enough talent for Tice to work with. 2.) Cutler has a go-to receiver in Rice, meaning Knox/Bennett/Hester can be solid complementary WRs, plus there's a major windfall if the gamble on Brown pays off. 3.) the interior pass rush on the d-line gets an upgrade, so the table's set for Peppers and Idonije to tee off on QBs when they can't step up in the pocket. 4.) we have eventual replacements waiting in the wings for Kreutz, Pisa, and Tillman, so we're not scrambling a year or two from now. 5.) we can pair Forte with a real goal-line back and use Taylor as a backup/spell player only.

At the very least, I'd be shocked if he dealt draft picks for a guard, especially with so many good players looking to hit free agency (assuming there is free agency at some point.) Looking at his history, it's clear that Jerry would rather sign free agents to fill out his o-line, and luckily enough this is a good year to need a guard. Tampa beat writers are reporting that the Bucs won't use the franchise tag on Davin Joseph, meaning he'll probably hit unrestricted free agency. He'd be a big upgrade over any of the Bears' current guards. Also, the Falcons need to re-sign both of their starting guards and their starting right tackle. I don't think they'll be able to retain all three: either Blalock, Dahl, or Clabo should be available at some point.

No jury in Washington would convict you of stealing from Dan Snyder.

Well, that complicates things for sure. The non-exclusive tag means that San Diego has the right to match any offer sheet, and if they don't want to match, they get two 1st-round picks from the team that signs him. That pretty much rules out any team negotiating with Jackson directly - nobody's going to give up two 1sts for him. If a new CBA gets done before the draft, though, we could still trade San Diego a 2nd and a 4th, which is what they were asking for him last year. On the bright side, the Vikings haven't tagged Sidney Rice, and haven't reached a long term deal with him or Chad Greenway. I've read that if they can't get either one locked up they'll tag Greenway over Rice. So he could still be a free agent, assuming there's any kind of free agency this year.