adam

Great point. Someone is trading up for a QB, it is the new norm. There are too many QB needy teams and everyone has seen what retreads do. Outside of Geno Smith, guys like Ryan, Mariota, Wentz, Wilson, Mayfield, Darnold, Dalton, etc have not worked out and won't help you win a Super Bowl. If you are going to those guys, you are not expecting to win. With only 2-3 QBs with franchise level potential coming out every year, you either go for one of those, or wait for next year. It can be a long wait. The Bears lucked into Fields after the Trubisky failure.

Absolutely, I just hope they don't replace him in the offseason once all the heavy lifting is done in the rebuild.

Their QB is a UFA. Smith is also a Pro Bowler who is going to command a lot on the open market. Derek Carr signed a 3yr/121M contract as a mediocre starter (40M per year). Goff is making $33.5M, Wentz $32.5, Ryan $30M, Tannehill $29.5M. Kyler Murray is making $46M per year. How much do you think Seattle is going to pay Smith? They have about $30M in available cap for 2023. I don't think Smith will be there next year. Also, they traded 2 first round picks for a Safety (Jamal Adams). It seems like swapping 1st rounders and trading 2 (1 not theirs) would not be out of the question if they wanted to get their guy at QB.

With Cole Kmet still only 23 yrs old, I took a look back at how the current top TEs looked before they turned 24 and I was pretty shocked. Right now, Kmet has 33 more receptions than the next best TE before the age of 24 and he needs only 68 more yards to pass Pitts (on IR) for the most yards by an (active) TE before the age of 24. If he gets 2 TDs, he would also tie Njoku for the TD lead with 9. Did you know Kmet was this productive at that young of an age? If he averages the same number of receptions and yardage he had last year (60-612) from 2023 until he was 34 (Kelce is 33), he would be in the top 5 for receptions by a TE (all-time). With that projected yardage, he would also be in the top 10 for yards and would need about 5 TDs a year to crack the top 10 all-time over a career for a TE. Active Tight Ends stats before the age of 24: 1. Kmet - 132-1315-7 (2 games left) 2. Hockenson - 99-1090-8 3. Pitts 96-1382-3 (1 season left) 4. Njoku - 93-1066-9 5. Freiermuth 88-807-8 6. Engram - 64-722-6 7. Ertz 61-827-6 8. Otton 39-369-2 (Rookie) 9. Andrews - 34-552-3 10. Knox - 34-381-2 11. Dulcich - 33-411-2 (Rookie) 12. Goedert - 33-334-4 13. Gesicki 28-253-0 14. Bellinger 27-226-2 15. Okonkwo 26-384-2 (Rookie) 16. Kittle - 17-166-1 17. Schultz - 13-122-0 18. Higbee 11-85-1 19. Waller - 2-18-0 20. Kelce - 1 special teams snap Notable Star and HOF TEs before 24: 1. Gronkowski 187-2663-38 (Gronk was an absolute beast, I don't know if we will ever see such a dominant young TE again, insane numbers) 2. Gonzalez 168-1838-15 (He was the TE gold standard before Gronk) 3. Witten 188-2084-13 (He seems like a TE that Kmet is best compared to) 4. Olsen 93-965-7 (ex-Bear - screw Martz, who had a long and successful career) 5. Gates 24-389-2 6. Sharpe 29-421-2 7. Graham 13-170-1 He already has the team lead in receptions locked up (44 and counting), needing only 6 more to hit 50 on the year. With 34 more yards, he will pass Mooney for the most receiving yards on the team, and his 5 TDs already lead the team. With 40 more yards, he will have his 2nd 500 yard receiving season (Proj: 51-526-6).

Hopkins? He is signed thru 2024 and is a UFA in 2025 when he will be turning 33. Are you talking about someone else? In 2023, the top WRs are JuJu, Meyers, and Chark. In 2024, as of right now it is Evans, Jeudy, Lamb, Jefferson, Aiyuk, Pittman, Davis, Higgins, and Brown. However, most, if not all will probably resign with their current teams. That is also when Mooney and Claypool are FA eligible. Another interesting thing to note about Kmet and Claypool. Claypool is a year younger than Mooney, and Kmet is a year younger than Claypool. All 3 were drafted in 2020, but Kmet is just 23, Claypool 24, and Mooney is 25. Velus Jones is 6 months older than Mooney and Harry.

Which teams on the cusp of missing the playoffs would be the most unexpected to not make it? To me it has to be MIA, TEN, or TB. Just a few weeks ago, I would've thought TEN and MIA were locks. TEN has lost 5 straight and MIA has lost 4. TB has a one game lead but can still lose the division if CAR wins their last two (one against TB). I always thought SEA and NYJ would fade. I also expected NYG to drop but they have hung in there. JAX's rising is just as shocking as MIA's fall.

Tua won't play due another concussion, which makes for a crazy Week 17 game in NE. Titans playing Willis, Jets now going back to White, WAS considering Wentz, and CAR is basically winning without a QB or McCaffrey is pretty impressive.

SEA is currently #3 and #12. If the Bears can get the #1 pick, then have SEA jump HOU to #1 to draft a QB using #12 and a 2024 1st rounder. The Bears could get Anderson or Carter, and basically another top 10 non-QB player plus an extra 2024 1st rounder. That would be epic, all courtesy of Russell Wilson, let's ride! The could also take Carter or Anderson, then trade out of #12 to pick up an early/mid 2nd.

With Kyler Murray out for the year, and now Buddy Baker, ARZ is not winning another game. 1. HOU 2-12-1 JAX @IND (HOU already beat JAX and tied IND) 2. CHI 3-12 @DET MIN (both opponents playing for playoffs) 3. DEN 4-11 @KC LAC (both opponents playing for playoffs) 4. ARZ 4-11 @ATL @SF The odds of HOU winning one more game is about 50% at this time.

Good point on the # of players on the roster, people forget about that. The top 51 are counted against the cap. If you consider teams will just fill the bottom of their rosters with vet minimum guys and rookies, you have to add about $1M for each spot until 51. So KC has $28M in cap space, but needs to fill 18 spots from 33 to 51, giving them around $10-11M of actual cap space for usage before signing any of their rookies, which they normally need about $5M for. So KC has in reality about $5-6M to use for resigning players or free agency. The Bears are the same way, $124M in cap space with 33 signed, minus $18M = $106M - $5M = $101M for actual free agency and resigning their own players. That is still $31M more than the next team's full cap space. That puts 17 teams in the red to start this offseason (great for Bears), and 7 additional teams with under $20M. There are only 7 other teams with $10M - $52M in effective cap. The Bears basically have double the next highest team (ATL with $52M). 1. Bears - $101M with Justin Fields ---------------------------------- 2. Falcons - $52M with no QB 3. Patriots - $43M with Mac Jones - standard for them 4. Giants - $41M with Daniel Jones 5. Bengals - $33M with Joe Burrow - very solid 6. Seahawks - $30M with Geno Smith 7. Ravens - $31M with Lamar Jackson - very solid 8. Texans - $30M with Davis Mills on the flip side, in cap hell: 1. Saints - (-$71M) 2. Bucs - (-$60M) 3. Titans - (-30M)

For the yardage for sure, even though it is down all over this season. There were some bad INTs though.

I think I have lost every way imaginable. I have lost by a scoring correction, hail mary interception for opponent's defense, highest scoring week by opponent, changed lineup but didn't apply, benched players that scored enough points to win, garbage time points, bad weather kills passing game, dropped wrong player with same name due to COVID (Michael Carter, CB had COVID vs Michael Carter, RB who I dropped). I have seen it all lol.

So what about WRs? The top FA options are JuJu and Meyers. I was thinking with the Claypool connection, if that would bring JuJu in, or if they didn't get along, that it would detract him from coming to the Bears. In 2020, Juju had 97-831yds, 9 TDs and Claypool had 62-873, 9 TDs, that would be a very solid duo with Mooney.

Right now I would say Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, and Burrow are the top 4 dudes. So cool that we get to have them in the league for the next 10+ years. Mahomes/Allen/Burrow feels like a better Brady/Manning/Rivers. The next tier is probably Prescott, Jackson, Herbert, and Lawrence. Then you have guys like Geno, is he going to be a 1 year wonder? Tua seems to be more of a result of that offense than anything else. Goff? He feels like a poor man's Rivers. Daniel Jones? He is ok, but I didn't think he was ever better than Mitch. Then you have a huge group of aging vets or retreads: Rodgers, Brady, Carr, Mariota, Garoppolo, Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill, Wilson, Wentz, Ryan, Heinicke and Mayfield. That is a huge group. Lastly, you have some struggling younger guys in Jones, Mills, Wilson, Willis, and Pickett. To me, Fields is probably in that 2nd group. He has flashed, but the passing volume and consistency has to come for him to ascend any further. Fields needs his guy. Mahomes-Kelce, Allen-Diggs, Hurts-Brown/Smith, Burrow-Chase/Higgins, Prescott-Lamb, Lawrence-Kirk. Herbert and Jackson are the only elite QBs without a 1K receiver, though Jackson has Andrews and Herbert has Allen/Williams.

Mayfield was never (bad), he is just very inconsistent and makes one or two boneheaded plays a game that result in a loss. He threw 4 INTs against GB last year and they lost 24-22. I always felt like Mayfield is what Bears fans wanted Rex Grossman to be. However, Watson is actually worse in the same offense: 69.3 QB Rating, 57.7 Comp%, 175 yds/g, 5.7 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT in 4 games. Mayfield in the same offense last year: 83.1 QB Rating, 60.5%, 215 yds/g, 7.2 Y/A, 17 TD, 13 INT in 14 games.

QB play in general is down this year. This week, 8 QBs threw multiple INTs, 12 had under 200 yards passing, and 7 had a QB Rating under 60.0. 3 QBs did all 3, Wilson, Carr, and Willis. I still can't believe Wilson. I think he will retire earlier than expected. Carr has Adams, Waller, Renfrow, and the NFLs league leading rusher, Jacobs, and is still absolutely brutal at QB. I would not be surprised if they draft one (they are currently 9th).

In the Conference finals, it looks like it is going to be decided tonight on MNF to see who goes to the Championship game. Right now the projection for both teams is within .11 of each other. 2 - Nopper 138.14 vs 6 - Savage 138.03 (Projected) - Keenan Allen (16.95 Proj) Basically if Keenan Allen scores 17.07 or more, Savage is in the championship as the reigning champion. If he scores less than that, Nopper is in. Allen has scored more than 17 twice in the last 5 weeks, so 40% of the time. Jefferson hit that number last week, Lamb did the week before that, and Adams did in Week 10 against Indy. So WR1's hit the number 60% of the time in the last 5 weeks. So this is about as 50/50 as it gets. Good luck!

Check that, Wilson sacked again, now leads NFL with 49 and counting. Thanks Russ.

LOL this is funny, I was just going to point out that Wilson was second to Fields in sacks, then he gets sacked on back to back plays and now is tied with Fields with 48 sacks with a quarter and a half to go.

Tua with 3 picks today like he can't read defenses. If Waddle or Hill are not wide open, he can't complete a pass. Russell Wilson may seen the biggest drop off of an elite QB that I have seen in a long time. He has had 5 seasons that would be the Bears single season passing record, 4 over 4K, a 40 TD season, and has always been great limiting turnovers. Then he goes to Denver where he arguably has his best receiving corps and he has 11 TDs to 9 INTs into his 13th games of the year. The drop off is mind boggling. If I am in the Denver organization, or even a fan, I am sick to my stomach. His contract is unmovable for at least 2 more years and even in 2025, it is still a huge dead cap hit.

Velus compared to other notable rookie WRs this week for receiving yards: VJJ 52 yds > Wilson 30 yds Olave 0 yds Burks 0 yds Watson 49 yds Moore 5 yds

There is a chance that Poles picks someone up in the trade market again, maybe even at the deadline next season.

Wow Russell Wilson is terrible. He ends the half 6-13, 90 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks, QB Rating of 29.8 and Denver has 6 points. Is he tanking for Seattle? Like one last gift out the door? He can't be this bad. I can't see them winning another game this year.

Ika or Tuipulotu will both be gone before the Bears draft in the 2nd unless they trade back and get an earlier 2nd rounder.

I listed Pocic, just not as a big contract guy. Dillard has barely played (3.6% of the snaps), so are you willing to pay him big money? He looks like a huge question mark. Davenport has 0.5 sacks (14th on team) in 437 snaps. I would be very concerned with the lack of production to pay him big money. I thought the Edge FA market looked really weak, so I tried to avoid it.