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Everything posted by adam
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OK, I will take a look, and I stand corrected on the keeper round cost: The first keeper is one round, and if you keep a second, that one costs two rounds. The only exception is if that you are keeping 2 players that would give up the same pick (like a 5th and a 6th both would require your 4th rounder), so in that case it gets swapped and you have to give up a 3rd and a 5th instead (for that example).
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I will try to look it up, I don't know what Yahoo did, but they messed it up big time.
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McCarthy will be making his first NFL start, on the road, season opener, on MNF. Here is how the other QBs did in their first start: Daniels 17-24, 184 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Loss Williams 14-29, 93 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT - Win Maye 20-33, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT - Loss Penix 18-27, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT - Win Average of 180 yds, 0.75 TD and 0.75 INT. So McCarthy throwing for 180 with 1 TD and 1 INT is probably the bar. Unless their running game goes off, that won't be enough for a win. I am revising my score to 24-17, Bears get 3 tuddies and a short Santos kick, Vikings get 1 passing, 1 rushing TD, and a FG. I would bracket Jefferson, and force McCarthy to beat them with his 2nd or 3rd read.
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I just need to go back and make sure we don't have back to back keepers as they were drafted if you kept them last year, and are ineligible this year.
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This shows the teams and the draft picks from last year a little easier: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/140564/lastseason
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It is a sliding scale, so it is 1-round for the first keeper, but if you want 2 keepers, the first one will cost you an extra round. So in your case, it would be a 6th round for #78 (which was an 8th rounder in 2024) and a 10th for #103, which was an 11th in 2024.
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I have no idea why the last draft is showing like that. There is a new designation setting for keeper status, and it looks like it believes all of last season's players are "keepers". Just ignore and apply the same rules as we did in previous years. Up to 2 keepers, if you have one, you lose the round before (so drafted in 4th, you lose a 3rd). If you select 2 keepers, the first player you lose two rounds (drafted in the 4th, you lose a 2nd, and the 2nd player you lose one round.
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Scott is taking over: Former PapaBear 1. (5) Justin Jefferson (Min - WR) 2. (16) Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB) 3. (25) Josh Jacobs (GB - RB) 4. (36) Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) 5. (45) Amari Cooper (Buf - WR) 6. (56) George Pickens (Dal - WR) 7. (65) Tee Higgins (Cin - WR) 8. (76) David Njoku (Cle - TE) 9. (85) Xavier Worthy (KC - WR) 10. (96) Nick Chubb (Hou - RB) 11. (105) J.K. Dobbins (Den - RB) 12. (116) Jameson Williams (Det - WR) 13. (125) Adonai Mitchell (Ind - WR) 14. (136) Kansas City (KC - DEF) 15. (145) Ray Davis (Buf - RB) 16. (156) Evan McPherson (Cin - K) 17. (165) Blake Corum (LAR - RB)
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They actually made it harder than previous seasons to find the draft results: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/140564/draftresults?draft_results_period=previous https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/140564/draftresults?drafttab=team&draft_results_period=previous
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I think they will play some funny games with injuries and stuff to hide some guys, Frazier seems like a candidate. Booker may end up on IR (miss first 4 weeks), which is the smarter move even if he can come back in 3. Roschon may be another candidate for that, which then frees up the spots for Hardy, Walker, and another RB.
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I doubt Love makes it to 24. I am thinking he ends up top 15, maybe even top 12. From the way Poles has drafted, you really can only expect a starter out of the 1st 2 rounds. He has been terrible in the 3rd (Velus, Pickens, etc). So I agree that RB, Edge are the top 2 needs to fill. I think they can get Safety help via free agency if they move on from Brisker.
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Scott has not confirmed/renewed the invite.
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I don't understand the concerns about Caleb. It is almost like people expect a perfect QB Robot to go out there and execute every play with perfection with zero incompletions, zero sacks, etc. Mahomes played against 64% of the Bears starting Defense from a 5-win team and still went 8-13, and needed a 30-yard penalty and a whole bunch of no-calls on his O-Line to pass for 1 TD. If not for a busted coverage bomb, he would've had 90 yards passing.
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Minnesota will be without Jordan Addison for this one. On the injury front, we know the Bears will be without Booker. The team is still hopeful to have Jaylon Johnson back to match up with Justin Jefferson. Both of those two are dinged up right now. I could see a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and TJ Hockenson in Week 1. LBs will play a huge role in stopping them. The pros for the Bears is playing on MNF at home, Soldier Field should be electric. Getting off to a hot start is key. McCarthy is basically a rookie. Caleb played well against MIN last year all things considered, he had 531 passing yards (265 yds/g), 3 TD, 0 INT, and 5 sacks in two games against MIN. Ben Johnson's offenses play really well against MIN, in the last 3 seasons, DET has put up 31, 31, 30, 30, going 4-0 against them and a Flores led defense. So I am less concerned about the offense than I am about the defense and Special Teams. Early prediction, Bears 27-20.
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You know Spags pulled the Detroit preseason tape and had at least a general idea of what to expect. On a few plays early, the DBs were running the routes for the Bears WRs. For the Bears defense, there is nothing you really can do if you are being held. On the Mahomes scramble and the play to JuJu where he rolled out, Bears were being held, yet no calls. The 30-yard penalty was also insane. Mahomes was targeting backup CBs and LBs, and it worked, shocker. Again, without JJ, Gordon, and Edmunds, that is a lot of downgrades in pass defense against the best QB in the NFL. Then no Jarrett or Booker in the rotation, and the line is going to be weaker. Also, I still like the live reps and actually glad Caleb got sacked, took a hit, and had to scramble, because now they have something to really work from compared to the Bills game being against the 2s. Compare that to McCarthy, who didn't play. Caleb didn't throw an INT in the preseason and was only sacked once. If you project that out for a full season, that is only 25 sacks, so his rate is down. Again, it's preseason, but the signs are there. His Comp% was 73.3 against KC and really only had 2 incompletions, a drop by Odunze, then the play in the end zone where Odunze was held at the top of the route. Burden got an unsportsmanlike penalty for spinning the ball, hopefully he learns from it and doesn't do something like that again. Better to do that in the preseason when the games don't count. Johnson said Booker will be out a few weeks, so I expect Hardy to make the 53-man. I would not be surprised if they look for Edge, CB, and RB help with the injuries.
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Hard to assess when the officiating was that bad. Special Teams is an issue. Terrible coverage on kickoffs, bad returns, blocked PAT and a missed FG. Not good. People forget that the Bears defense had 4 starters out and no Booker who has been a spark plug. No JJ, Gordon, Jarrett, or Edmunds. That's not nothing especially how KC attacked the Bears.
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They gave Mahomes a 30+ yard penalty to aid his first drive, ridiculous. They called a face mask AND DPI on Wright. Then try refuse to call holding on the KC Oline.
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I think Hyppolite, Ogbongbemiga, Hicks and Owens are all but locks. Then probably Frazier and Homer. Ogbongbemiga and Hicks are core special teamers, as is Owens and Hicks. I think the last OL, DL, and WR will probably be the toss ups with Amegadje, Pickens/Ford as the leaders. Poles mentioned Jahdae Walker by name which was surprising to me in regards to camp standouts.
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I know he got dinged up a little, but if Austin Booker is half as effective as he has been in the preseason, the pass rush rotation is going to be really solid.
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I hope he sticks around, but the contract now makes him more appealing to other teams because he is locked in at the lower price for a few years. Kind of wild that Trubisky hasn't gotten another chance to start, but teams like New Orleans are ok going with Shough, Haener, and Rattler?
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I set the league draft for 7pm on Sunday, August 31st. We will need to identify keepers by the 30th.
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Bagent deserves it, from UDFA to contract extension is a huge accomplishment.
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Refs suck in general, but that had nothing to do with their offense only scoring 20 and 19 (in regulation) in the last two SB appearances. In 2020, they didn't score in the 4th quarter, then in OT in 2024, they got to the KC 9 and kicked a freaking FG. He had 1st and 10 from the 15 and lost the game. He had similar games in ATL, CLE, WAS, and HOU. Before ATL, he was an OC for 7 years and had one season where his team made the playoffs, and what did they do, lose a home wild card game and only scored 14 pts. It is the Shanahan curse.
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Honestly, in my lifetime, I can't remember a team with a better, deeper collective group of receivers than this team with: Moore, Odunze, Burden, Zaccheaus, Loveland, Kmet, and Swift. The best that I can remember for the Bears was 2014 with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Forte who all 4 of them had over 100 targets. I asked some different AI's to give me a list of the best Receiving Corps in NFL history. The 1999 Rams were considered the best, and I can understand that at the top end, the Bears do not compete with Bruce, Holt, and Faulk, but from Receiving option #4-#7, I think the Bears have the edge. Isaac Bruce (WR): A second-round pick in 1994, Bruce was a Hall of Famer with impeccable route-running and hands. In 1999, he amassed 1,165 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Torry Holt (WR): The sixth overall pick in the 1999 NFL Draft, Holt was an immediate-impact rookie who would go on to have a borderline Hall of Fame career. Marshall Faulk (RB): A first-round pick (second overall) in 1994, the Hall of Fame running back was a revolutionary pass-catcher out of the backfield, leading the team with 87 receptions for 1,048 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1999. Az-Zahir Hakim (WR): A fourth-round pick in 1998, Hakim was a speedy and dangerous slot receiver. Ricky Proehl (WR): A third-round pick in 1990, Proehl was a savvy veteran who provided crucial depth and clutch plays. Roland Williams (TE): A fourth-round pick in 1998, Williams was a solid contributor at the tight end position. Jeff Robinson (TE): A fourth-round pick in 1993, he provided additional depth at tight end Here were some other teams the AI spit out. I honestly think that this group can be amongst these teams in the next year or two: 2004 Indianapolis Colts: Featuring the Hall of Fame duo of Marvin Harrison (1st round, 19th overall) and Reggie Wayne (1st round, 30th overall), complemented by Brandon Stokley, tight ends Dallas Clark (1st round, 24th overall) and Marcus Pollard, and running back Edgerrin James (1st round, 4th overall). This group had three receivers surpass 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in the same season. 1998 Minnesota Vikings: This offense was headlined by two Hall of Fame wide receivers, Cris Carter (4th round, supplemental draft) and rookie sensation Randy Moss (1st round, 21st overall), along with veteran Jake Reed. Their top targets also included tight end Andrew Glover and running back Robert Smith. 2013 Denver Broncos: Peyton Manning's record-breaking season was fueled by a deep group of receivers including Demaryius Thomas (1st round, 22nd overall), Eric Decker (3rd round), Wes Welker, and tight end Julius Thomas (4th round), with running back Knowshon Moreno (1st round, 12th overall) also a significant receiving threat. 2011 Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers had an MVP season throwing to a talented and deep group that included Greg Jennings (2nd round), Jordy Nelson (2nd round), Donald Driver (7th round), James Jones (3rd round), Randall Cobb (2nd round), and tight end Jermichael Finley (3rd round).
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I love the buy-in. From the interviews, you can really see that there is a difference. Compared to the other younger Offensive-minded HCs, McVay is probably the only one I would take over Johnson. Shanahan always chokes, LaFleur is solid but I feel like he has already peaked, and McDaniel gives me young Trestman vibes.