adam

I was curious to see who the last few 5K Passing Teams had for skill position receivers, and how those groups compare to what the Bears have on paper right now. Outside of the super high-end All-Pro seasons for Kelce and Godwin, the other numbers for the rest of the players were not as high as I expected. Going into 2025, the Bears 5th best pass-catching option is Swift or Kmet, so the lesser of the two is the Bears 6th-best pass-catching option. That is unprecedented, even comparing the Bears 2025 projections with some of the best passing offenses of recent history. So there is a good chance that the projections I posted are actually on the low side. One other interesting note, none of the 4 teams listed here had a 1K Rushing RB that season. 5K seems absurd considering the Bears have yet to have a 4K passer, but I really think the 4500 projected is very realistic considering the amount of playmakers the Bears have as pass catchers, the improved O-Line, and Johnson's system. Take a look at let me know what you think. KC 2022 Smith-Schuster 78-933-3 Valdes-Scantling 32-687-2 Hardman 25-297-4 Moore 22-250-0 Watson 15-315-2 Toney 13-171-2 WR 185-2653 Kelce 110-1338-12 Gray 28-299-1 TE 138-1637 McKinnon 56-512-9 Edwards-Helaire 17-151-3 RB 73-663 LAC 2021 Allen 106-1138-6 Williams 76-1146-9 Palmer 33-353-4 Guyton 31-448-3 WR 246-3085 Cook 48-564-4 Parham 20-190-3 Anderson 16-165-1 TE 84-919 Ekeler 70-647-8 Jackson 22-178-0 RB 92-825 TB 2021 Godwin 98-1103-5 Evans 74-1035-14 Brown 42-545-4 Johnson 36-360-0 Perriman 11-167-1 WR 261-3210 Gronkowski 55-802-6 Brate 30-245-4 Howard 14-135-1 TE 99-1182 Fournette 69-454-2 Bernard 23-123-3 RB 92-577 TB 2019 Godwin 86-1333-9 Evans 67-1157-8 Perriman 36-645-6 Watson 15-159-2 Miller 13-200-1 WR 217-3494 Brate 36-311-4 Howard 34-459-1 TE 70-770 Ogunbowale 35-286-0 Jones 31-309-0 Barber 16-115-1 RB 82-710 Best Single Receiver: Kelce 110-1338-12 Best 2nd Option: Williams 76-1146-9 Best 3rd Option: Ekeler 70-647-8 Best 4th Option: Gronkowski 55-802-6 or Fournette 69-454-2 Best 5th option: Brown 42-545-4 Best WR Group: 2019 TB WR 217-3494-26 (Godwin, Evans, Perriman) Best TE Group: 2022 KC TE 138-1637-13 (Kelce, Gray) Best RB Group: 2021 LAC RB 92-825-8 (Ekeler, Jackson)

Looks like Chubb may be a done deal soon, either 1 year $6 or $8M per Internet rumor mill.

This season will be the true test of the value of a coaching staff and scheme. The Bears with the same roster as last year should've won 2-3 more games with just better coaching. If you add the roster differences between last year and this year, that change should double. No team made more roster upgrades than the Bears, and they technically made more upgrades than all the other teams in the division combined. CHI - Key Acquisitions: Thuney (80.0), OG, Jackson (67.6), OG, Dalman (78.8), C, Jarrett (62.1), DT, Odeyingbo (66.1), DE + Ben Johnson + Dennis Allen Top Draft Picks: Loveland, Burden, Trapilo, Turner Biggest losses: Allen, Jenkins (75.4), Walker Wild Card: Brisker's health SOS: 26th Summary: Huge coaching staff upgrade, at least 8 upgrades across the roster. (+4 to +6 wins) MIN - Key Acquisitions: Allen (56.0), DT, Fries (86.9), OG, Kelly, C (67.0). Top Draft Picks: Jackson, Felton Biggest losses: Sam Darnold (80.7), Cam Bynum Wild Card: McCarthy's health and performance, how many 1 score games can they win? SOS: 28th Summary: Huge downgrade at QB, upgraded OLine (-2 to -3 wins) DET - Key Acquisitions: Reed (70.7), CB Top Draft Picks: Williams, Ratledge, Teslaa Biggest losses: Carlton Davis III (74.5), Za'Darius Smith, Kevin Zeitler (86.5) + Ben Johnson + Aaron Glenn Wild Card: Hutchinson's health is a huge question mark. There were talks about him playing in the Super Bowl if they got there, and now in May he looks like an old man. SOS: 30th Summary: Upgrade DL, downgrade OL, huge downgrade in coaching staff (-3 to -4 wins) GB - Key Acquisitions: Banks (65.4), OG, Hobbs (61.4), CB Top Draft Picks: Golden, Belton, Williams Biggest losses: T.J. Slaton (DT), Josh Myers (C), AJ Dillon (RB) Wild Card: How many near INTs from Love will turn into actual INTs? SOS: 23rd Summary: No change (Golden replaces Watson)

Poles said that Wright was not moving and would stick to RT and Trapilo would stick to the left, which implied that he would be competing with others for that spot.

Another hot take, Burden will have a better career at WR than Travis Hunter.

I am glad they are taking this approach with Wright. This also should light a fire under Braxton's ass and if not, he gone. Trapilo has a real shot at this as long as the learning curve isn't too much for him.

I mentioned him in another thread as making a lot of sense considering his time with Johnson AND Swift.

I am just thinking outside the box. Johnson has had Sewell throwing passes, OL catching passes, and other formation trickery. Yet, he has never had the versatility that he will have in 2025.

It is possible that Moore, Burden, and Loveland will have over 50 combined carries this year. Deebo Samuel had a career high of 59 a few years ago and averages over 40 per season. Moore had 14 last year, I could see him having over 20-25 this year. If they get 50 carries from WR/TE, then adding another RB would not be as big of a need.

Revisiting the schedule, now post-draft. Right off the bat, I will say the Bears split the division, but that could go plus or minus a win, so at worst 2-4, at best 4-2. Home DET - W GB - W MIN - W DAL - L (Really depends on which DAL team shows up, could go either way) NYG - W (Feels like an easy win) CLE - W (CLE has 5 QBs, and none are starter quality) PIT - W (Defense good, offense bad) NO - W (Feels like one of the easier games on the schedule) 7-1 at home Away DET - L GB - L MIN - L PHI - L (Super Bowl champs) WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus) BAL - L (Tough matchup) CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making) SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now) LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games) 3-6 on the road 10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

Matt Miller had Luther Burden as the favorite pick of the entire draft. Loveland was his 7th. Pretty cool. He had Burden as his top WR and Loveland as his top TE. Here were his write-ups: Burden was my top wide receiver in the class (I'm counting Travis Hunter as a two-way player), and he landed in a great situation with the Bears and new coach Ben Johnson. Burden's yards-after-catch ability is terrific, and Johnson's scheme has been elite at creating space for wide receivers. Burden likely starts as a slot receiver with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze flanking him, but he thrived in that alignment at Missouri. I had Loveland as my No. 1 tight end, and apparently the Bears agreed; they made him the top tight end drafted. His ability in the passing game -- he runs routes like a receiver and has the speed to separate from linebackers and safeties -- makes Loveland an easy comparison to Sam LaPorta, whom Bears coach Ben Johnson had great success with in Detroit. Value, need and scheme fit all match with this pick.

Both will probably be good, just kind of funny that Warren is actually older than Brock Bowers.

For RB, it seems like it will come down to Chubb, Williams, or maybe someone like Ameer Abdullah? He had 40 receptions last year for LVR, which is impressive considering how bad they were. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry on the same team that Alexander Mattison averaged 3.2.

Demarcus Walker is still a UFA.

Offense TE Everett (246 snaps) > Loveland Lewis (220 snaps) > Smythe WR Allen (850 snaps) > Burden Carter (137 snaps) > Duvernay RB Herbert (27 snaps) > Monangai OL Shelton (1122 snaps) > Dalman Jenkins (738 snaps) > Thuney Pryor (1006 snaps) > Jackson Davis (142 snaps) > Newman Borom/Curhan (591 snaps)> Trapilo Defense DL Taylor (375 snaps) > Turner Walker (739 snaps) > Odeyingbo Cowart (335 snaps) > Jarrett LB Sanborn (235 snaps) > Hyppolite CB Jones (76 snaps) > Frazier Over 5000 snaps replaced on Offense, and 1700 on defense. The entire secondary is basically coming back, and considering they are in Nickel most of the time, the back-7 are virtually unchanged from last year. Outside of the rookies being unknowns, it looks like upgrades across the board outside of Sanborn to Hyppolite and maybe Allen to Burden is a wash in 2025. Loveland over Everett is massive. Every OL spot is massive. I still feel like Edge could use another guy, especially if they don't believe in Robinson, but that's it.

and for PFF grades, only Turner was graded "below average" which is quite impressive considering the snap counts. Loveland - 85.9 Burden - 77.9 Trapilo - 76.8 Turner - 59.4 Hyppolite - 69.2 Frazier - 85.9 Newman - 71.9 Monangai - 77.3

Correct, and both had 13x 100 yard rushing games in their last two seasons. Production-wise, those numbers are really close.

I totally jacked that up, cutting and pasting. That's what I get for reading crap at 5am lol. One was Big Ten, one was Big 12.

Newman is definitely a sleeper pick, which is interesting coming from a Big Ten school. He played LT at Holy Cross and was the 5th highest rated OT in college football in 2023 according to PFF. He was also graded out as the 31st and 32nd best OT the two years prior to that.

I know there were some discussions about Warren vs Loveland, but one other factor that sometimes doesn't get enough attention is age. Loveland is two years younger than Warren.

I saw an interesting comp (there are many). Both Big Ten RBs, both drafted by the Bears, both will be used in a Ben Johnson offense. One was a 7th rounder, and one was a 3rd rounder. Guess the players: RB A - last 2 seasons: 498-2541, 5.1 YPC, 21 TD RB B - last 2 seasons: 515-2362, 4.6 YPC, 24 TD

Funny if you swap a few picks around, they ultimately end up near where they were ranked. Swap Turner and Trapilo, move Monangai up to the 4th, move Frazier over Hyppolite and the values are in line with the consensus big boards. Loveland - TE2 1st Round Grade Burden - WR3 1st-2nd Round Grade Turner - DT6 2nd Round Grade Trapilo - OT7 3rd Round Grade Monangai - RB20 4th-5th Grade Frazier - CB23 5th-6th Grade Hyppolite - LB35 UDFA Newman - OG22 UDFA

and if you got back another year, I think there were at least 3-4 other games Flus'd, so this roster really was a 8 to 9 win, cusp of the playoffs, type of roster. So getting to 10 or 11 wins seems reasonable.

Oh yeah for sure, I think the trenches have to get addresses every year, regardless how good your top guys are.

The league is a head-to-head league, and normally when one team gets better another team gets worse, at least relatively speaking. The Bears had a huge gap to make up in the division as a 5-win team this offseason. Every other team made the playoffs and had no less than 11 wins. So to close the gap, they needed a massive coaching staff upgrade, check, an impactful free agency, check, and a really solid draft, check. It still means nothing until Week 1, but the groundwork is in place to be in the mix with DET, MIN, and GB this season. There is a good chance that the entire NFCN has 10+ wins. I think DET and MIN will come down to earth, GB will be around 9-10 wins, and CHI will be somewhere in the mix. The 4th place team in the NFCN probably misses the playoffs again, and they may be a 10 win team. I am hoping the Bears can get to 11 wins.