Could we make a trade with Miami?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

The Miami Dolphins will most likely look to trade out of the #1 pick for the draft. Bill Parcells is shaking things up and will look to move his defensive philosphy into Miami. With that being said, the consensus top pick of Glen Dorsey DT LSU will not fit into that system. Darren McFadden RB could also be a top pick, but Miami has Ronnie Brown who was tearing it up before he got injured. Then you have Jake Long OLT Mich and Chris Long DE Virg., both of these guys would be better off as there pick, but I see Parcell's looking to add more pieces to fill more holes. Here's were the Bears come in. If Chicago were to trade there #1-14 and #2-44, the trade would almost equal out (#1=1889 and #14+#44=1883). The Bears could then use the #1 pick to take Michigans Jake Long LT and still have two more first day picks 3-75 and 3-90*. With the other 3rd round picks, we can hopefullly get a QB (Flacco) and a SS (Steltz or Barrett). I'd love to have Jake Long anchor our left side for many years and we usually blow our 2nd pick on some unknown developmental player anyways (Manning, Bradley, Bazuin, Rosy Williams).

 

What would your opinion be if this move was made? I would really consider it, all I want is a OLT with pick 1 or 2. This would guarantee us to get a potential stud OLT and not hope Clady, Otah, or Chris Williams falls to us.

[Iguana]

Actually, the 3rd round is on day 2 now.

 

I would have a very hard time passing on McFadden

[DrunkBomber]

JA doesnt trade up. Especially to overpay the first overall pick. Unless there is some crazy prospect out there most teams dont even want the number 1 pick because of the money. If anything we may see JA even move down but I doubt it. I bet we take the best available OL with our first pick and move to BPA from then on unless a trade comes up.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Actually, the 3rd round is on day 2 now.

 

Thats right, I forgot about the change in the draft

 

I would have a very hard time passing on McFadden

 

 

I like Mendenhall better than McFadden, so we may be better to try and get Mendenhall with our 14th But thats only a pipe dream because I don't see JA spending big money on the RB position this year, next year will be the year we spend $$ on a RB.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

JA doesnt trade up. Especially to overpay the first overall pick. Unless there is some crazy prospect out there most teams dont even want the number 1 pick because of the money. If anything we may see JA even move down but I doubt it. I bet we take the best available OL with our first pick and move to BPA from then on unless a trade comes up.

 

What I hope is that Jake Long slips to KC, IMO there the only team really desperate to rebuild the Oline also. That will hopefully leave us with the next best Olineman available (Ryan Clady). Most Mock draft sites have us taking Brohm or Woodson. Will find out shortly after FA what our intentions are. IMO if we resign Grossman, we look QB in RD's 2-4, but if we don't sign him, we may take the best QB available with our 14th.

[DrunkBomber]

What I hope is that Jake Long slips to KC, IMO there the only team really desperate to rebuild the Oline also. That will hopefully leave us with the next best Olineman available (Ryan Clady). Most Mock draft sites have us taking Brohm or Woodson. Will find out shortly after FA what our intentions are. IMO if we resign Grossman, we look QB in RD's 2-4, but if we don't sign him, we may take the best QB available with our 14th.

If we resign Grossman I dont think we draft a qb at all. Unless of course we cut Griese, which Im all for.

['TD']

If we resign Grossman I dont think we draft a qb at all. Unless of course we cut Griese, which Im all for.

 

You think Griese cost us the season?

He had a highest QB rating on the team.

He completed the highest percentage of passes by far(61.2% to 54.2%RG and 53.8%KO).

He had the most yards (1800+) and yards per attempt on the team(6.9BG, 6.3RG, and 6.0KO).

He had the most TD's and 2nd best TD to TO ratio( KO 3-2, 10-13BG, and 4-10 RG).

He was sacked 3/5ths of the times as Grossman.

 

I'm not saying he was good, he wasn't. He sucked. The rest of the QB's on the team sucked worst.

 

The only QB without a losing record this season was Kyle Orton, and both wins were meaningless.

 

Plus, he wasn't even supposed to start this year. You can thank Grossman for that.

[BearSox]

Your trade value chart is wrong. No. 1 overall pick is worth 3000 points and the no. 14 overall pick is worth only 1,100.

[azbearsfan]

Griese was garbage and was of a waste our time to have out there. He didn't help us win, Grossman has better talent and at least with Orton out there we were trying him out for the future.

Griese was the third best QB on the squad

['TD']

I said he sucked. I just don't think he sucked as bad as the rest.

 

Grossman has a better arm, but sucks despite it.

 

Orton didn't show much progress after 2 years on the bench and a year of starting.

 

They all sucked.

 

I just think Griese sucked the least of the 3. Hence, I don't think he was the cause of the bad season. I don't agree with the list in his sig.

 

I would have to go with this....

 

1) Lovie - He's the head Coach. He did poorly, and responsible for the staff. Doesn't see mistake in Turner. Fired Rivera for Bablich. Wanted Arch.

2) JA - He got complacent and made no productive offseason moves. Got cocky in the draft (Wolfe) Responsible for Lovie and his staff. Doesn't see mistake in Turner.

3) Turner - He had a horrible year. I want to put him first, but I think the 2 guys responsible for him should be first.

4) The Offensive line. nuff said.

5) Bablich - Probably only Lovies yesman, had injuries, but the D took a major dip.

6) Rex Grossman - Played horrible enough to lose his job in 3 games. Forced to go with Plan B and later Plan C.

7) Harry Hienstand, Luke Butkus, Charles London, Darryl Drake, and Tim Spencer- Every single offensive position coach minus the TE one. His players played well.

8) Rusty Jones and Tim Authur, Strength and conditioning, and his assistant. Too many injuries this year.

9) Lorenzo Neal for the cheap shot on Mike Brown that took him out for the season

10a) Arch and any one involved with his deal thats not yet listed.

10b.) Cedric Benson

[Controlled Chaos]

I'm glad we won that last game to get out of the top 10. I could go into my own reasons citing all the Bears top ten pick failures, but Pompei wrote a pretty good article mirroring my thoughts, so here it is. I bolded the most important part to me below. I prefer that money to go to established FA signings like a Faneca. I have no problem throwing the big bucks to established players...it's the unproven guys and likely busts that cripple the team.

 

BTW, I am sick with the thought of taking a QB this year and that's what every mock draft I've seen has the Bears doing...I'm hoping they're all wrong.

 

Something to play for: A lower pickBears better served Sunday by winning, dropping in draft, writes Dan Pompei

Dan Pompei

 

December 28, 2007

 

The Bears will play a "meaningless" game Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, but the outcome could have major ramifications on the future of the franchise. If the Bears lose, they could end up with a first-round draft pick as high as ninth overall. If they win, they could choose as low as 18th.

 

Even though losing would result in the Bears getting a higher-ranked player, beating the Saints probably is in the Bears' best long-term interests.

 

That's because most teams don't want anything to do with top-10 draft picks -- and for good reason. The hidden truth is picking in the top 10 can leave teams with more problems than Pro Bowl players.

 

Take it from the Lions. They have had six top-10 picks in the last six drafts -- Joey Harrington, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Ernie Sims and Calvin Johnson -- and they haven't made the playoffs since 1999.

 

Teams that pick in the top 10 tend to be repeat customers. Falcons President Rich McKay once called the syndrome in which a team finds itself picking high in the draft every year "the drowning pool." Teams like the Lions sink deeper and deeper despite the alleged advantage of getting to pick before other teams.

 

The perception is that picking high guarantees teams will select difference-makers. But of the last 100 top-10 picks, only 33 have been invited to play in a Pro Bowl. A top-10 pick without a Pro Bowl on his resume is considered as accomplished as a real estate agent who has never sold a house.

 

Expectations are part of the problem. Even a solid prospect can wither in an environment created in part by the fact he is a high pick. Parting the sea wouldn't be enough. He would have to walk on it too.

 

If the top-10 pick doesn't turn a team around, the front office is criticized, probably before the player's rookie season is over. The media beat him up and he's under fan attack so even if he were talented enough, he probably wouldn't be confident enough.

 

The biggest issue with top-10 picks is they are risky investments with huge load fees -- also known as signing bonuses.

 

We already have established there is a 67 percent rate of failure over the last 10 years with a top-10 pick. Now consider this: A team picking late in the first round will spend less on all of its draft picks combined than a team picking at the top of the draft would spend on its first pick alone.

 

"The financial impact of a top-10 pick is substantial," Cardinals general manager Rod Graves said.

 

Teams with high picks are forced to allocate a significant portion of their budget to one player, but teams without high picks have freedom to spend however they deem most beneficial.

 

The guaranteed money for the ninth pick is expected to run about $5 million more than the guaranteed money for No. 18. The cash the Bears would save could be used on extending the contracts of their own players, perhaps Tommie Harris, or signing other team's veteran free agents. That $5 million could be the difference between keeping a player with an expiring contract like Bernard Berrian or letting him walk.

 

Of course, if you draft a player like Vikings running back Adrian Peterson with a high pick, you beat the system.

 

Some teams, like the Ravens, don't mind being in the top 10. And for good reason. During general manager Ozzie Newsome's time there, Baltimore has selected seven players in the top 10, and five of them have been Pro Bowlers.

 

The Ravens, unlike some teams, prioritize drafting the best available player. "If you stick to the board when you are picking in the top 10, you should do pretty well," Ravens director of college scouting Eric DeCosta said.

 

Where some teams get in trouble is reaching for needs. Six teams passed Peterson in April, including the Cardinals. Graves said the Cardinals had a higher grade on Peterson than offensive tackle Levi Brown, but they chose Brown because they believed he could improve their team more. The Cardinals had holes on their offensive line, but they had Edgerrin James at running back and two solid backups.

 

"We knew there was a trade-off in passing up what could be an exceptional back," Graves said. "But we never imagined he would have this kind of impact. When you are drafting in that area, I think you lean more toward need, and you risk passing up more talented players. That's the thing people in my position struggle with."

 

The other issue is there isn't always an Adrian Peterson available. General manager Jerry Angelo has had only one crack at a top-10 pick with the Bears. He chose Cedric Benson with the fourth selection in 2005. There was no Peterson that year. Only one player from the top 10 that year has earned a Pro Bowl nod; third pick Braylon Edwards was named to the squad this season.

 

The difference between picking ninth and 18th in 2006 was the difference between linebackers Sims, an emerging star the Lions took with the ninth pick, and Bobby Carpenter, who has yet to establish himself as a starter after the Cowboys selected him 18th. This year it could be the difference between, say, Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long and Southern California linebacker Rey Maualuga.

 

Bottom line: Picking high would give the Bears a crack at some attractive prospects, but they would be served better with a player from the middle of the round and more cash in their pocket.

 

-----------

[BigDaddy]

I would much rather see Angelo trade down for more picks. Aside from Ryan, I don't see any QBs that get me going or that I'd want to gamble a 1st rd pick on. I'm not even sure I'd risk it on Ryan. If we could move down and pick up another 2nd, I'd be ecstatic. Unless of course, Kenny Phillips is available when we pick, then I'm picking him. If he isn't then my mindset shifts to o line with the 1 and 2 and if we have another 2, then I go with the next best safety.

[adam]

The Miami Dolphins will most likely look to trade out of the #1 pick for the draft. Bill Parcells is shaking things up and will look to move his defensive philosphy into Miami. With that being said, the consensus top pick of Glen Dorsey DT LSU will not fit into that system. Darren McFadden RB could also be a top pick, but Miami has Ronnie Brown who was tearing it up before he got injured. Then you have Jake Long OLT Mich and Chris Long DE Virg., both of these guys would be better off as there pick, but I see Parcell's looking to add more pieces to fill more holes. Here's were the Bears come in. If Chicago were to trade there #1-14 and #2-44, the trade would almost equal out (#1=1889 and #14+#44=1883). The Bears could then use the #1 pick to take Michigans Jake Long LT and still have two more first day picks 3-75 and 3-90*. With the other 3rd round picks, we can hopefullly get a QB (Flacco) and a SS (Steltz or Barrett). I'd love to have Jake Long anchor our left side for many years and we usually blow our 2nd pick on some unknown developmental player anyways (Manning, Bradley, Bazuin, Rosy Williams).

 

What would your opinion be if this move was made? I would really consider it, all I want is a OLT with pick 1 or 2. This would guarantee us to get a potential stud OLT and not hope Clady, Otah, or Chris Williams falls to us.

Wow, when did the 14th and 44th pick equal the 1st pick? You must have the CFL draft value chart.

 

1st - 3,000

14th - 1,100

44th - 460

 

Our 14th and 44th would get us as high as pick 6 or 7, not 1. We don't have enough picks unless we give up a 1st Rounder in 2009 as well. That is too much to give up with all the holes on this team.

 

I would rather trade down into the 20's and pick up a late 2nd rounder, which would give us 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.

[fenom283]

You think Griese cost us the season?

He had a highest QB rating on the team.

He completed the highest percentage of passes by far(61.2% to 54.2%RG and 53.8%KO).

He had the most yards (1800+) and yards per attempt on the team(6.9BG, 6.3RG, and 6.0KO).

He had the most TD's and 2nd best TD to TO ratio( KO 3-2, 10-13BG, and 4-10 RG).

He was sacked 3/5ths of the times as Grossman.

 

I'm not saying he was good, he wasn't. He sucked. The rest of the QB's on the team sucked worst.

 

The only QB without a losing record this season was Kyle Orton, and both wins were meaningless.

 

Plus, he wasn't even supposed to start this year. You can thank Grossman for that.

 

He lost to division opponents the Lions twice and Minnesota the freaking lions how many picks can you throw in the red zone. A rookie, Grossman, and Orton id be content.

[WheresMyronBaker]

I may have missed it....but I dont see a reference for Denver drafting OT. Their LT Lepsis is retiring and they draft ahead of us.

[balta1701-A]

Wow, when did the 14th and 44th pick equal the 1st pick? You must have the CFL draft value chart.

 

1st - 3,000

14th - 1,100

44th - 460

 

Our 14th and 44th would get us as high as pick 6 or 7, not 1. We don't have enough picks unless we give up a 1st Rounder in 2009 as well. That is too much to give up with all the holes on this team.

 

I would rather trade down into the 20's and pick up a late 2nd rounder, which would give us 5 picks in the first 3 rounds.

This is an example of why I argue that the draft value chart as currently presented is heavily over-weighted towards the picks at the top. Yes, in some years you can pick up a Peyton Manning at the top, but there's still a non-trivially high bust rate even for the top pick. A team going entirely off that draft chart would reject a trade that might be overwhelmingly in their favor (I.e. I'll give you my entire draft for the top slot).

[adam]

This is an example of why I argue that the draft value chart as currently presented is heavily over-weighted towards the picks at the top. Yes, in some years you can pick up a Peyton Manning at the top, but there's still a non-trivially high bust rate even for the top pick. A team going entirely off that draft chart would reject a trade that might be overwhelmingly in their favor (I.e. I'll give you my entire draft for the top slot).

Ricky Williams?

 

The Draft Value charts are just guides, not the gospel. The actual player being drafted would determine the actual value. The team might have him rated as the #3 pick, yet he is still there at #6. They might overpay, in terms of draft value to get him. It works the other way as well. If there is no one there worth the current pick, the value of the pick could be worth less.

['TD']

He lost to division opponents the Lions twice and Minnesota the freaking lions how many picks can you throw in the red zone. A rookie, Grossman, and Orton id be content.

 

That's only 3 games. Plus, Minny wasn't on Griese. He brought the team back.

The D, Minnies AP, and the coverage on the last kick off costed us that game.

 

I don't see how you can cost a team the season as a back up and you only played in less then 6.5 games.

I think I laid out 10 better reasons we lost this season then Griese.

 

Griese was used wrong this year anyways.

 

Out of the 6 games he played a majority of the game, he only threw for under 40 attempts once.

 

That was the win in Green bay.

 

Vs. the Lions he had 40 and 52 attempts.

Vs. Minny he had 45 attempts.

Vs. Philly 41 attempts.

Vs. Wash 45 attempts.

 

The exception was the win in Green Bay when he only had 25 attempts.

 

The Bears are going to lose when they have to pass that much.

The Bears lost every game this year when they threw over 35 times except for vs. Philly.

That also doesn't fit Griese.

 

 

 

 

Once again, I am not defending his play. He sucked, but not as bad as the other QB's.