Take the North and Never Give It Back!

[AZ54]

Bears are all alone in first place.  

[Mongo3451]

38 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Bears are all alone in first place.  

And nothing else matters...🤌🏽🤌🏽🤌🏽

[adam]

12 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I don't think SoS applies for playoff positioning unless you get past a crazy amount of prior conditions. For WC spots, it's head to head (if applicable) first, then record in conference, then common opponents. For divisional tiebreakers, it's head to head, divisional record, common opponents.

If DET and CHI finished at 11-6 each, there is a good chance they both have the same Division record (3-3), Conference record (7-5), and record in common games (8-4), which would then move to the Strength of Victory criteria, which just based on their schedule, DET would more than likely win it. What sucks is you benefit from beating a good team, but are not penalized for losing to a bad team with Strength of Victory.

For CHI to win the division outright, they will need to beat DET by at least one game on the season, which may be decided in Week 18. With GB having a tie, that takes all the tie breakers out of the equation.

The easiest route to the Division is sweeping GB and beating DET. That would give the Bears a 4-2 DIV record and DET would end up at 3-3. They would then only need to win 1 game against PIT, CLE, SF, and PHI to finish 11-6. Win two of those and you more than likely win the division outright at 12-5, but it still would come down to Week 18.

There is crazy scenario where the winner of Week 18 wins the Division, and the loser misses the playoffs (because of GB's tie).

 

[adam]

Poles finally took the North. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Packers are probably the team to watch fall out of playoff contention, if it's not the Bears.

Packers remaining opponents: (MIN(x2), DET, CHI(x2), DEN, BAL

If they split with either MIN or CHI, they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs, because I don't see them beating Detroit, Denver, or Baltimore. They'd end up finishing 9-7-1, leaving the door open for the Bears to get in with 10 wins.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Packers are probably the team to watch fall out of playoff contention, if it's not the Bears.

Packers remaining opponents: (MIN(x2), DET, CHI(x2), DEN, BAL

If they split with either MIN or CHI, they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs, because I don't see them beating Detroit, Denver, or Baltimore. They'd end up finishing 9-7-1, leaving the door open for the Bears to get in with 10 wins.

How sweet would that be?

[adam]

22 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Packers are probably the team to watch fall out of playoff contention, if it's not the Bears.

Packers remaining opponents: (MIN(x2), DET, CHI(x2), DEN, BAL

If they split with either MIN or CHI, they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs, because I don't see them beating Detroit, Denver, or Baltimore. They'd end up finishing 9-7-1, leaving the door open for the Bears to get in with 10 wins.

Yeah the Bears and Packers have 3 common games remaining (DET, 2 against each other), the 4 different games are MINx2, DEN, BAL vs the Bears getting PHI, SF, PIT, and CLE.

GB is a very weird team. All 3 of their losses have come when the defense held the opponent to 16 or less. They have turned the ball over in only 4 games, and in those games they are 1-3-1. So it seems like even one error and the entire game is derailed. That actually reminds me of recent Bears teams, the big difference being Flus+Fields vs LaFleur+Love.

[adam]

On 11/7/2025 at 4:29 PM, adam said:

That is still funny to me, but there is a path in the next two weeks.

This week, assuming DET beats WSH, CHI beats NYG and GB loses to PHI.

That would slide DET into 1st in the DIV, tied with the Bears but holding the H2H tiebreaker.

Regardless of the outcome of any other games, the Bears would also be locked into the 6th Seed either between SF and LAR or LAR and GB, depending on the winner of the LAR @ SF game.

Now here is where it gets spicy. Week 11, if the Bears can beat the Vikings and go to 7-3, DET is playing in PHI, which PHI should be favored. Just say DET loses, they fall to 6-4, GB should beat NYG and move to 6-3-1. That would put the Bears in 1st at 7-3, GB in 2nd, and DET in 3rd. The odds of this happening are actually quite high, considering all outcomes.

9-3 heading into December, have now been in 1st place since the win against the Vikings to move to 7-3. 

Bears go to GB then get CLE and GB at home. The 2nd GB game is on Saturday (another short week).

GB gets the Bears at home, then travels to DEN, then back to CHI on a short week. 

There is a real shot that the Bears go 3-0 and Packers go 0-3. Even the most realistic outcome is still Bears 2-1, Packers 1-2, which would extend the Bears lead in the Division to 1.5 games over GB. During that window, DET gets DAL (on THU), in LAR, then PIT. That is either 2-1 or 1-2, which means at worst the Bears gain a game on GB, and maintain their 2-game lead on DET with 2 games remaining.

If the Bears do sweep the next 3, crazy I know, Week 18 might be used to rest starters (if they are not the #1 Seed).