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adam

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About adam

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  1. Next Gen Stats

    to an open receiver
  2. Week 2 fallout

    He looks legit. Seems pretty confident, and is doing it without a great supporting cast. With Foles coming back later this year, he may be an option for some teams (Bears *cough* *cough*) next season.
  3. Next Gen Stats

    I am not arguing that Mahomes is not an elite QB. However, this just shows that he is making less attempts into tight coverage than any other QB by a wide margin, but also is gaining more yards on those throws than anyone else. What this tells me is Mahomes doesn't even have to make tough throws, there is almost always someone open.
  4. Next Gen Stats

    Interesting NextGenStat posted here: Basically Mahomes has thrown to more open receivers than anyone in the league between 2016-2018 and it's not even close. Talk about a scheme working, Andy Reid is a genius. Trubisky in the middle of the pack. Interesting to see Wentz grouped with Winston, Newton, and Bortles. Mahomes is the least aggressive but most productive passer. Ryan is the most aggressive/productive passer, Tannehill is the least aggressive, least productive passer, and Kizer is the most aggressive, least productive passer.
  5. Week 2 fallout

    I believe the team thought Howard was too one-dimensional for the offense. Basically when he was on the field, they were running the ball or the defense didn't have to worry about him in coverage (outside of a checkdown). That made it very easy to defend. That is my assumption. Montgomery, Davis, and Cohen all can catch the ball out of the backfield in an actual route. Stats aside, Howard is now Philly's short yardage back. Sanders is the lead back and Sproles is the 3rd Down back. The common thread between our anemic passing and running game is Nagy and the O-Line. I will put most of the passing woes on Trubisky, but for overall offense, it's Nagy and the O-Line. We rarely have running lanes as Montgomery is juking guys in the backfield to get a 3 yard gain out of a 2 yard loss. In the passing game, there is rarely a clean pocket, and when there is, no one is open, or Trubisky air mails a pass. To me, it can't get any worse. We survived two games of bad offense and the only way to go is up. The preseason regular season games are over. We should see a huge improvement over what we saw the last two weeks on offense.
  6. Week 2 fallout

    Interesting that the RBs are getting a free pass in all of this. If Trubisky is at fault for averaging 174 yards per game passing behind that O-Line, why is Davis off the hook for his 2.5 yds/carry and Montgomery off the hook for his 3.3 yds/carry? I love Montgomery, and he looks legit, but we need more production out of everyone. One of the reasons we have 3rd and longs is our running game has been crap too.
  7. This will be a good game. The Redskins are improved but I don't think they are at the Bears level. This is a must-win because we are the better team. We can't afford to lose in the weak part of the schedule. We were great against the spread last year, and now we are 0-2, so just based on trends and odds, we are due to win one ATS. So I am thinking Bears 20-13, with Pineiro getting 2 more FGs and the Redskins get a late TD and a failed onside kick to give us the W. Keenum is 2-0 against the Bears, with 2 wins in 2017 with MIN. In those games he was very efficient, but with very little yards (140 and 189). He doesn't have the supporting cast like he had in MIN, so this will be a favorable matchup for the Bears. He is 5-0 TD/INT, so he is also due an INT. With Guice hurt, they are using AP and Thompson, and neither of them have had very many yards. This team is very one dimensional with the pass. Keenum has only been sacked twice (once per game). I think we get to him 3 times. One odd schedule note, this will be the second week in a row that we have extra rest (THU > SUN, and now SUN to MON). The extra rest helps us with the travel for road games. The defense should be well-rested and now conditioned better for the end of the game. The Redskins Defense is dead last in yards allowed per drive (47.5) and TOP/Dr at 3:46. Their defense has been worse than Miami's, which is borderline impossible considering who Miami played. No excuse for Trubisky and the offense not to dominate. Our offense in comparison is 29th in yards per drive at 22.91 and 22nd in TOP/Dr at 2:33. On the flip side, the Redskins offense is 15th with 32.94 yds/Dr and is 14th in TOP/Dr at 2:53. Our defense is 11th in yds at 28.29 Yds/Dr and 18th in TOP/Dr at 3:00. I think part of our TOP/Dr was not getting off late against DEN. Just simply averaging these together we get the following: Bears O vs Redskins D - 35.2 Yds/Dr - 3:10 TOP/Dr Redskins O vs Bears D - 30.6 Yds/Dr - 2:57 TOP/Dr
  8. Week 2 fallout

    Like I said in the other thread, we have a very favorable schedule now with Brees out. This is the perfect time to get the offense going. Washington was carved up by Prescott and Wentz in the first two weeks and they only have 2 sacks on the season. Teams are 18-28 on 3rd Downs against Washington (64.3%), which is great news for us. Just what the doctor ordered. If our defense plays its normal game, this is really a great chance to get the offense back on track. Nagy needs to take the training wheels off. We follow that game up at home against MIN, who has been average against the pass. Then OAK, which is near the bottom of the league on defense. These are all winnable games. I am giving Trubisky the benefit of the doubt to the bye. He really needs to show something against WAS and OAK, and be good enough against MIN. I want 4-1 into the bye. The Offensive Line needs to play better, receivers need to run the correct routes and get some separation. Nagy needs to call a balanced game and give Montgomery, Cohen, and Patterson the ball in space so they can make some plays. Our Special Teams is a top 5 unit right now, coupled with our defense, we really are a tough out. Grizz, you are correct, there are so many teams in bad shape right now, we have a great opportunity to go on a run.
  9. Upcoming Schedule - Silver Lining

    Bill, how do you feel about Dak Prescott? In Year 2, he had 8 games with less than 200 passing yards, and only one game with over 270 yards (out of 16 games). In his Year #3, he started out with 170 yds, 160 yds, 168 yds for a 1-2 start. People were calling for his head in Dallas. Even after that slow start, he didn't get much better, he threw for over 290 twice, a 455 yard game against PHI (like Trubisky's TB game) and ending the season with 387 against the hapless Giants. In 50 career games, he has 6x 300 yard passing games. Trubisky has 5 in 28. Some guys just need more time than others. I am growing impatient as hell with the offense and Trubisky but we can win without Trubisky throwing for 300 yards every game (though that would be fun to watch). To me, something else is going on with Trubisky and the offense, because we are now at the 2004 level of offensive ineptitude. That year we rolled out Hutchinson, Krenzel, Quinn, and Grossman who combined for 9 TDs and 16 INTs and 2641 passing yards (165 yards /game). We didn't even have a 1,000 yard rusher as Jones only ran for 948 and was the lone bright spot on offense. It seems like we are in the perfect storm of problems all hitting at the same time. There are a bunch of issues with the offense and though Trubisky is a big part of the problem, I don't think he is the biggest part. The offensive line is the biggest issue; the James Daniels experience should be over. Move Whitehair back to Center. Why fix something that ain't broke? We have too much money invested in the O-Line for it to be that bad. It is a bottom-5 unit right now on run and pass. Unacceptable. Guys are running right past our O-Line like turnstiles, it is baffling to me. We can't get a running lane to save our lives. Leno already has 4x penalties in two games. Go back and watch the Patterson run, Leno gets leveled by a guy half his size. Next, you have Nagy's playcalling and packages. There is a point where it's too much and I think we have reached that point. In Game 1, the Bears used 32 different lineups on offense on 60 plays. That is insane. No one can get into a rhythm like that. He is tricking nobody. His plays are predictable. Just go back to good ole' play action, which actually works. Nagy even mentioned players running the wrong routes. So just think if you are Trubisky and you drop back and guys are not where they are supposed to be. What do you do? Where do you throw the ball? Nagy got better in game 2 with his run/pass ratio, but we still have a long way to go. He has always been a better coach than player caller, and maybe the Bears look to have someone else take over these duties at some point. Receivers - I will first say that no one knows who is running what route, so we can't say for sure that it's the receiver or the QB's fault (or both). However, from Nagy's statement, he alluded to the fact that receivers are not running the exact route called. Also, why are guys not getting open? This has been an alarming trend for the start of the season. Look at the other NFL games, guys are wide open, QB's getting good protection to make the throws. Is Trubisky missing some, absolutely, but it's not like he is missing an open guy on every bad play. There just doesn't seem to be anyone open or where they are supposed to be. Trubisky, he is going to get all the blame and he deserves a lot of it. I don't know why he has regressed, but he has if you just look at his play in a vacuum. It almost seems like Nagy put in a whole new offense this offseason and everyone is back to square one. Nagy has to be telling Trubisky not to take chances, so he is overthinking on every play instead of just playing the game fluidly. Lastly, I wonder if he is having any lingering effects from his injury last year. That would be the only other factor that you would have to consider. Is he playing through some minor issue every game that is limiting his strength, accuracy, timing, etc? Now back to the topic.....we have a top 3 defense and we just need to be average on offense to be a playoff team. Right now we are terrible, but there is nothing special about any of the teams we are facing, so we have a shot to right the ship before the schedule gets tough.
  10. If there was ever a time to get on a hot streak, it's now. With the news of Brees' injury, I would be shocked if he was back in 5 weeks for our game. They have a Week 9 Bye, so it would make sense to target his return no earlier than Week 10. That makes our next 7 games extremely favorable. Week 3 - at Washington (Win, Guice out, bad defense) Week 4 - vs Minnesota (Win, Cousins looks worse than Trubisky, outside of Cook, offense not doing too much) Week 5 - at Oakland (in London, Win, Mack will singlehandedly win this game for us) Week 6 - Bye Week 7 - vs New Orleans (w/o Brees, at home, Win) Week 8 - vs Los Angeles Chargers (LAC not a good road team, Win) Week 9 - at Philadelphia (Loss, a winnable game, but unless we see a huge improvement on the offense, this is a loss) Week 10 - vs Detroit (Win, Lions at Soldier Field) The Bears have a chance to go into Week 11 against the Rams at 7-2 and that's not a stretch by any means. These are all winnable games and the Brees news gives us an extra favorable game.
  11. From listening to some of the post-game recaps, the Bears stole one in Denver. Vic had his defense ready and his knowledge of the team, players, and tendencies made this an incredibly challenging matchup. Add that to the elevation, which really became a factor in the 4th, and this was an incredibly challenging game to win. Interesting to see other QBs struggle mightily this week. Watson? 16-29, 159 yds, 0 TD, 4 sacks. That's throwing to Hopkins. Very surprising. How about Cousins? 14-32, 43.8%, 230 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, and a fumble lost for a 52.9 QB Rating. Less than 50% with Thielen and Diggs? Ouch. Mariota? 154 yards. Brissett, 146 yards. As of the 3rd quarter, Wentz is 7-18, 28.9%, 55 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT for a 7.6 QB Rating.......
  12. Broncos Win!

    What the hell?
  13. MVP's so far

    When is the last time a Bears kicker made 2 kicks from 50+ in a game, and with one being the GW to boot? People almost forget he made a 52-yarder in the 2nd quarter. He is now 4-4 on FG's on the season and 1-1 for XPs in 2 games.
  14. 29 runs, 27 passes. Finally, balance. Montgomery with 18 carries, Davis with 3 (only gained 1 yard). Still a work in progress, but a win is a win:
  15. Longest FG for Bears since 2000. Bears seemed to get screwed on the extra point/2-conversion. If the Broncos took a 5 yard penalty, then the Bears took a half the distance penalty on the offsides, then the ball should've been at the 3.5 yard line (2 yard line > 7 yard line > 3.5 yard line), not the 1 yard line. I don't know why the Broncos penalty yards would be negated just because you switch from kick to 2-pt conversion. It seems like the officials got it wrong there. Great throw by Trubisky on that throw. Then to make that kick? Crazy. ClubDub is booming right now! Still need some work on offense, especially the O-Line and passing game, but it was progress from Week 1. A win in Denver this early in the season is a huge accomplishment. Now we get an extra day of rest before Washington on Monday Night.
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