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  2. adam

    Draft...

    Yeah, it is definitely challenging to assess, but I think you have to break it down step by step at the time of execution. First, he made the trade assuming the 2024 QB Class would be better than the 2023 Class. He nailed that. Then there's getting Moore in the trade. Even with a terrible offense, Moore has been 6th in the NFL in receptions over the last two years and 8th in receiving yards. That's top-ten WR production. Adding Moore also ensured you had a solid eval of Fields. So I would say this was another feather for Poles. Then it's the Darnell Wright pick. Just exclusively evaluating Wright compared to other OL drafted around him (Paris Johnson, Skoronski, and Broderick Jones), Wright was the Wright pick. Then it comes up to the 2024 draft, I think we have to wait longer to assess if he got the picks correct, but at the time of the picks, I would've taken Williams and Odunze (or Bowers), so this is leaning towards being the right moves. Then he closed it out with the Burden pick. So he could've done things differently in hindsight, but at the time of the moves and state of the team, they seem to be as close to on point as you can get.
  3. I just have to revisit this now. Caleb + Bowers + Irving alone would've been crazy.
  4. Here's a good video, its short. Smart guy
  5. Today
  6. no, but that is his role now. i agree hes not that good at it. But What i said was you can find an inline blocker cheaper to replace him. No matter what they said about him coming into the draft, he has gotten better at run blocking, and he has not been a gronkowski type at all. he deosnt get open against man, either with moves or body position. he isnt particularly well known for contested catches either. Hes just a big body that runs like Frankenstein, loping and stiff, and yes against zone, sometimes he is open. That is true for every TE. he doesnt even have particularly soft hands, but if hes open and you throw it to him, he can catch it. But he isnt a difference maker on 3rd down or anything like that. hes not been a QB safety blanket at all. He's just a decent average NFL TE. And you can get them cheaper or better yet, on a rookie deal. I think he is gone next year, or possibly at this years trading deadline. We will see. I DO think he has a chance to prove himself this year and change this, but i havent seen it from him on tape yet, so until he does, i think he isnt long for this team.
  7. Overview Long bodied, early entry Y tight end prospect who is a better pass threat than run blocker at this stage. Kmet should continue to fill out his frame, but his run blocking is too scattered and needs better focus and efficiency as a pro. He can be jammed and slowed by early contact into his route, but once he's striding, he becomes a legitimate second-level threat with sneaky separation speed and intriguing ball skills. He's still developing and could be a slow starter headed into the league, but he has the talent to eventually become a solid starter as a pass-catching in-line tight end with the ability to mismatch from the slot with his size. Strengths Good size with long arms and more mass likely to be added. Will come across formation and land a blow on wham blocks. Adequate hand placement and runs feet through the block. Nice job of staying connected to base blocks with lateral slides. Gets defenders off of him downfield for catch space. Calm in the air to adjust and bring it in. Can go get the ball wherever it is thrown. Heavy inside his pads with ability to absorb contact. Rumbles after catch, treating tacklers like bumper cars. Weaknesses Body control and strength as a blocker need work. Below-average instincts and angles as move blocker. Inefficient and slow getting into block fits. Needs to play with earlier inside hands and rolled hips at point of attack. Too tall coming off the ball and into his routes. Has issues playing through contact within the first five yards. Upright into brakes, allowing defenders to read and jump routes. Questionable hand strength to secure contested catches. He was not drafted as a inline blocker. GRADE
  8. We'll see. Like i said, I do agree he has value. But with so many mouths to feed, I suspect he will be gone next year, or maybe even at the trade deadline this year? I have heard rumors (so who knows whether they are true or not) that the Patriots and Chargers might be interested in Kmet. But I doubt we trade him now - gotta see the rookies do it on the field first. He just doesnt have any wiggle to get open, and he isnt known for tough contested catches. He gets open in gaps in zone defenses, and catches OK, but i think there are a lot of cheaper guys that can do that and block too? Thats why im saying this. but its not like Leno or Fields. Im not saying he sucks. I just dont think there is much room for him on our team soon.
  9. We had some pretty bad players on the IL last year, but youre right coaching will help a LOT too. fair.
  10. Yesterday
  11. AZ54

    League News

    I can't wait for this sideline show to begin with Brian Schottenheimer as the band leader and Matt Eberflus playing second fiddle.
  12. Kmet is a classic 3 down TE. It makes him a little more versatile than a pure inline TE. I agree that his value isn't in the eight figure range, but he's close. I also don't believe he's trade bait. He's not the type of player teams trade for. Teams will simply draft or sign one in free agency. His greatest value is with us.
  13. Anything over 40 is a failure.
  14. The oline added will help but having an offense that will open WRs and not have them run to the same spot will help even more. The group we had last season might have looked decent with this coaching.
  15. I think with the new OL, if the LT position is solid, we could expect an average number of sacks this year, which would look like heaven considering where we've been! It's hard to talk about incremental change from the previous stat since most of those guys wont be on the line this year. I think it's just a new unit, and should look pretty good. Average at least!
  16. 100%, but it wasnt as if Poles made that happen. When we traded the rights to Young, we could have had CJ stroud, and there was no guarantee that Carolina would give us the #1 pick the next year. We got VERY lucky, and to get Williams out of it was a godsend. But Poles didnt know that would happen. So I dunno if we can give him all the credit for that?
  17. You've got to be kidding. Everything I wrote just said that Kmet's role is AS a blocker. I said he could be replaced by another inline blocker. I dont think he is the 9th best TE. I dont think he is good at getting open either. As for value, it's not just the pick. If he is as good as you say he is, he will get better than a 5th round pick. If he is only worht a 5th round pick then he isnt the 9th best TE. You gotta pick a lane. But it's also the $10M in cap space savings (and then #11.6M after that). I'm not saying he is without value. I am saying you could convert his value into another blocking TE, and have more left over to help the team in other ways. Or you could trade him for an edge or something. And use the money to extend a player, or sign another free agent. Since you are in the mode of saying people's opinions come from some psychological way of thinking - I think you are too attached to anyone that's on the roster. Good teams get rid of good players to get better. If you've ever wanted a trade down in the draft, it's the same thing as moving Kmet. You give something of value, to get back something of value. Usually more than one thing. So my message isnt that Kmet has to go. Im not saying he is terrible and should be on the street. Im saying he is GOOD, but not worth what we pay him, and Id rather have the value somewhere else. I also think the Bears will think that too. Not necessarily today, but ive been saying since january that i dont think Kmet will be on the team next year. So unless the offer is really rich, you wait until Loveland is established, and then you look for moves at the trade deadline, or during the offseason.
  18. agree. I understand the prudence of signing them for long terms deals, but we gotta see what weve got first. Ill add in Nate Davis as another example. He looked GREAT on film, and showed up as an unmotivated turd!
  19. Out of Thuney, Jones, Billings, Brisker, and Byard, Thuney is probably the one you extend, even if it is just for a 2nd year.
  20. adam

    Sack Reduction

    How many fewer sacks can we expect to see in 2025? New coaches, new scheme, revamped O-Line and 2 shiny new weapons. So Williams led the NFL in sacks last year with 68 on 562 passing attempts, which was the highest sack total since David Carr's 68 in 2005. At first I thought, ok, if he can drop by 20%, that would be solid. That would be 14 fewer sacks for a total of 54. That would've still led the league last season without Williams' 68. So it needs to be lower. So the next number is 33%, can he cut his sacks down by a third, so can he cut 23 sacks to go to 45? That would still be top 10 in sacks, but less than Burrow, Darnold, and Daniels. That seems a lot better. Bryce Young went from 62 to 29 from 2023 to 2024. Some of the raw total drop was tied to fewer attempts but he also dropped his Sack% by 3%. If we apply that same concept to Williams and say he cuts down his sack rate from 10.79% to 7%, his total using last year's numbers would be 44. So that 44 to 45 number seems legit and realistic. Now if we use those lost plays and apply them to his percentages, he instantly adds 170 yards of passing and 16 more completions to his numbers from last year without any other change. If Williams can improve on his comp% by 5%, that would add another 28 completions and 300 more yards. Now we are at 4K passing without any other changes than sack reduction and improved comp%. Now add better scheme/coaching + better O-Line + better weapons and I could easily see mid 4K passing for Williams in 2025. Of all the 2024 QB Draft Picks, I think he will lead them in several stats including passing yards.
  21. I’d really rather we see what we have with these new guys before signing them to an extension. I had the same problem with the Jonah Jackson extension. I understand doing it, but imagine if we’d taken the same approach with Chase Claypool.
  22. adam

    Draft...

    I honestly think two things hurt Poles in his first few years as a GM, Eberflus and Fields. It seems he was forced to hire Eberflus or pick from a small list with Eberflus being the best option. Then having to figure out if Fields was the real deal or not as quickly as possible, which sort of forced the Claypool trade and overpay for Davis. Since that point, Poles has been about as good as you can be as a GM given the restraints and resources. Williams for Young straight up is a win for the Bears, but then when you think you ended up with 6 starters for that one pick is crazy, all thanks to Lovie and Davis Mills comeback win.
  23. Not necessarily, but they would have to make room under the cap to actually sign them to a contract if that contract total for the year exceeds their available cap space, and once they get to 90 players, they would have to cut someone for the roster spot too. I think they will go into camp first and see what they got before committing any extra money out. Poles like that summer 2nd wave of free agency.
  24. adam

    League News

    Pickens traded to DAL. Crazy to think of all the drama around him since the draft and he ends up getting traded for a future 3rd round pick. Good value for DAL. PIT basically swapped Pickens for Metcalf and dropped a 2nd to get a 3rd.
  25. Just seen where Geroge Pickens was traded to Dallas for a 3rd round pick. He's a talented WR but has character issues . Tomlin doesnt get rid of quality players for no reason. I remember a lot of people wanted Poles to take him. He was picked 4 spots after we took Brisker in the 2022 draft. With our dysfuncinal offense the pass few yrs it wouldnt have went well here.
  26. First of all Kmet is not a bad blocker. Getting rid of the 9th rated TE to get a cheaper choice has risk. (CBS ratings) Say we trade him for a 5th round pick. How many 5th round picks does what he does in his career? 258 recs 2592 yds 19 TDs Had the best catch rate for a TE with over 50 targets. 47 of 55. Do you honestly think Ben Johnson wants to trade productive assets because he drafted a TE that might be good in the NFL? Ben likes to play chess with his offense, keep moving assets around so the defense doesnt know what he's going to do. 2 major assets are rookies, so you want to get rid of a proven asset for a better cap space. No logic in that at all.
  27. If you have time this is a very interesting video with Wannstedt. At around 33 minutes. A friend of his runs Pro Scout that every team buys. They rate all players in the NFL. the last 10 SB winners, there was no blue LTs but every team that won a SB had a blue center. Conclusion was center was the most important OL.
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