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my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random. Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context. If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw. An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account. Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team. Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome. When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing. I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field. It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

There are some good parts to PFF, but you have to dig. The grades from a macro view are ok, but still subjective. However, they do have some advanced analytics numbers that are based on real stats (comparable to NFL Next Gen Stats).

PFF is random though

True, the only reason I posted it is because PFF just put their ranking out

It's all been said over and over. The reasons i think what i think are clear, and the stats you're using to bolster your argument are clear too. There's no need to go around in circles so i won't repeat it all again. Time will tell what happens.

Good info, I didn't even pay attention to his deal.

Daniels ranking is solely due to his scrambling. Technically Nix had the best passing season of the top 3 rookies last season. I don't know how you can have Williams after Bryce Young, McCarthy (ultimately a rookie), Maye, and Penix. That is just silly.

i get that but Penix only played 5 games, McCarthy never played last year and rank higher. Cam Ward hasnt played one snap and is only one spot behind Caleb. He at least deserves to be ranked ahead of the top of tier 4 right behind Bo Nix.

Caleb has to show more and win football games. We look at the Bears on paper and think we are great, but until they show it in games it will be this way. CJ and Jayden were behind center and made the playoffs while the Bears fell apart. Let's hope this new regime changes our outlook.

He has two more yrs on a contract that pays him a totaal of 30 mil but none of it was guaranteed and was trying to get the brass to rework the deal to give him some guaraanteed money. He was going to hold out but choose retirement to force their hand. The Lions GM is nortorious for letting good players l go instead of paying big money. J Jackson and D Swift were a part of the GMs history. They drafted Ratledge and now have him listed as the starting OC. Lions back loaded Franks contract to have 30 mil left that he could cut him once he reached that. He saves 23 mil by letting him go now. The situation is actually worse than just Ragnow being gone. Mahongany is now playing LG , a 6th round pick last year and at RG is Graham Glasgow, a 10 vet is now playing RG. That is 3 new starters in the IOL.

This is the great website PFF QB rankings for 2025. Caleb is ranked 24th under the heading Tier 4 (young players with range of potential outcome) Ahead of him are #6 Jaydon Daniels ( tier 2: high end starters) a one year of play has him in elite status? CJ Stroud #14 (tier 3b. solid starters that need more help) this is probably fair with both yrs of tape figured in In the same tier 4 as Caleb 19) Bo Nix 20) Byrce Young 21) JJ McCarthy 22) Drake Maye 23) Michael Penix They have at 25, one back of Caleb, a rookie that hasnt had a NFL snap Cameron Ward Caleb had a respectful year, not great but much better than several names ahead of them. They have added more weapons, an OL and an offensive genius in BJ. Yet Caleb is listed behind them, WTF

Frank Ragnow, Lions Center, unexpectedly retired. Huge blow to their O-Line. They had already lost Zeitler, so 40% of their O-Line is gone. I don't know why he waited until after free agency and the draft (maybe he tried to give it a go), but either way, you don't just replace an All-Pro Center with anyone. This feels like a huge offensive regression coming from Detroit this year. Goff with pressure up the gut is the worst for him because he is not very mobile.

I understand when you say Loveland is a better recieving TE than Kmet, but you keep saying he hasnt proven himself. He did that in 2023 which prompted his contract. 73/719/6 that was good for the 9th ranked TE that year. Last year his stats regressed when he had 35 less targets. He doesnt have good hands, he has great hands. Literally led TEs the last two years in catch rate. No one is saying he is Kelce, Kittle or even Bowers but is a high end TE in the league.

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him. I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too. I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure. I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

I don't think anybody is over stating what Kmet can do as a receiver. He's good there, has really good hands but doesn't have the agility that you see with Loveland. Kmet isn't elite either as a blocker. He's a jack of all trades but that is still valuable for a play caller especially when paired with Loveland between the 20s. Both TEs will be effective in the redzone too. If anyone knows how to use these two TEs effectively it's Ben Johnson.

Has anyone verified this player is well liked by DA?

OMG YES thank you for saying that. I've been hating that for a while about Caleb, and I also just noticed him NOT doing it in camp clips. Theyre fixing his footwork, eliminating the pat, and working on pouty body language. Only time will tell, but right now i am really glad we got Johnson and not Mike Vrabel. I wanted Vrabel early because I know this team needs discipline, but i gotta say, so far it sure looks like Ben Johnson has brought some. And it's not from rah rah speeches at the press conferences either. No HITS acronyms. or all male disco parties after wins. It's just on the field, in the play to play mechanics, where it's real.

PFF is random. People love it because they do a lot of clear rankings and ratings, and they use numbers, so they are fun and easy to understand an compare. But PFF is nonsense. Now, despite my feelings about what I think Cole Kmet really is, *IF* he was to break out and be a great player, then we might be looking at film of the Patriots when they had Gronkowski and Hernandez for ideas. I'm sure there are a lot of ways to use two great TEs, especially with Moore and Odunze on the outside. So I understand the excitement from those that think Kmet has that kind of skill set. Of course, neither one is Gronkowski, especially Loveland being more of a tall and nifty slot receiver, so the same concepts wouldn't map over 1 to 1, but the matchup problems are obvious, and a true dual TE threat is a real problem for defenses. If Loveland could be a Tony Gonzalez type for us, that alone is gonna be great for Caleb and our offense.

Likely at 9, this is clearly a receiving biased ranking.

One thing I think I see from the limited highlights is that early on in the offseason Caleb was always patting the ball and then throwing. As a DB or DT you love to see that. In recent clips I don't see him doing that. It's not entirely clear yet because a lot of sources mix in highlights from different practices. Are the coaches forcing him to break a bad old habit? I hope so and it's something I'll be looking for as the team begins training camp. With some of these reports about inaccuracy I would say if he's in the early stages of breaking a bad habit it will affect some of his touch, timing, and accuracy because he's got to be deliberate to skip the "pat" and just throw as soon as he sees it.

I think we all saw enough to know Caleb has a lot to work on. He also has a lot of talent. Facts are he has a totally new standard being set from the top on down. Ben Johnson is a proven play caller who knows offense and is a stickler for the little things - from how to get in and out of the huddle, to how to line up, where the ball goes, and even how you handle your emotions on sidelines. He knows all those little things add up and create a material difference. Caleb has never been coached like this. Caleb has talent - that is clear - but now that he has an elite offensive mind to work with him - he also is going to see how hellacious the work effort is and what it takes to be elite at the NFL level. Let’s hope Caleb has it in him cause I think there is probably a bit of an eye opening experience going on right now with a number of players who were used to the cupcake nature of Eberflus. And I for one say it is about ducking time! And Caleb seeing Keenan who is a good back up leverage his smarts to look better than him just puts more pressure on Caleb to elevate all aspects of his game.

PFF has Andrews at #4 AND Likely at #9. That is crazy talk.

If Caleb is humming both TEs should be 10 to 15 as far as stats. With DJ and Rome running down field, one of the TEs should be open every play.