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that made me happy

If they signed two vets and don’t know what they have in them then we have bigger problems with this organization.

First, I did have GBs RB group ahead of MINs. Second, Jacobs is going to a new offense and just came off a season where he averaged 3.5 YPC. Yuck. Jones knew that offense like the back of his hand and dominated in the playoffs last year. Very few backs post back to back 100-yard games in the playoffs with 3 TDs in 2 games. In 2022, I would agree that Jacobs was better, but for their careers, or any other year, Jones has the edge. Just look up the numbers. Even with Jacobs monster year in 2022, he still averages 0.8 less yards per carry than Jones for his career. Almost 1 yard per carry is a lot. In 130 less carries, Jones has 400 more rushing yards and only one fewer rushing TDs. Then when you take receiving into account, it slants more towards Jones. Receiving TDs for their careers, Jones = 18, Jacobs = 0. Come on man, Zero. That is unheard-of. Even Khalil Herbert has 2 receiving TDs in his career. Using AV for the last 5 seasons, Jones AV = 54, Jacobs AV = 44. Again one monster year in 2022, outside of that, Jacobs has been fairly average. If you had to put their seasons in order, Jacobs has the best season in 2022, but then Jones would have the next 4.

Josh Jacobs > Aaron Jones

NFC North Skill Groups (1QB, 2RB, 2TE, 3WR): CHI - Williams / Swift, Herbert / Kmet, Everett / Moore, Allen, Odunze DET - Goff / Gibbs, Montgomery / LaPorta, Wright / St. Brown, Williams, Raymond MIN - McCarthy / Jones, Chandler / Hockenson, Oliver / Jefferson, Addison, Powell GB - Love / Jacobs, Lloyd / Musgrave, Kraft / Watson, Dobbs, Reed - Rookies in Red - Meh players in Blue The Bears have the best WR Corps, Everett is the best TE2 of the bunch, making the TE Room competitive with DET and MIN. DET has the best RB Room but CHI and GB are close behind. Adding Odunze really puts the Bears offense over the top. Roschon would be ahead of Chandler on MIN and he is not even listed. Here is how I would rank them today, assuming projected potential from the rookies: QB - CHI / GB / DET / MIN RB - DET / CHI / GB / MIN TE - MIN / DET / CHI / GB WR - CHI / MIN / DET / GB Using pts from 1-4 for each group, totals are as follows: CHI - 13 pts DET - 11 pts MIN - 9 pts GB - 7 pts Just say you don't agree on the QBs, and you bump Williams to 3rd. That would give DET 12pts, CHI 11pts, and GB 8 pts. There is a clear gap from DET and CHI to GB and MIN. For defenses, CHI and MIN were the best, followed by DET, then GB. So I would not be surprised if GB struggles a lot more than people think this year (actual tape on Love). MIN will be contingent on McCarthy, just like the Bears will be on Williams. I just have a lot more faith in Williams. His track record is a lot longer than McCarthy's. If you overlay these teams onto their projected schedules, it shows the following outcomes: 1. Bears 10.5 wins (7 win team +3.5 wins) - Bears already had success against DET last year, Williams adds 2 wins by himself 2. Lions 10.5 wins (12 win team -1.5 wins) - Normal regression with tougher schedule, relatively the same team 3. Vikings 8.5 wins (7 win team +1.5 wins) - Will be solely dependent on McCarthy, this team is the most volatile, could end 6-11 easily. 4. Packers 7.5 wins (9 win team -1.5 wins) - Has regression written all over it, Love was too lucky, loss of Jones will be visible. This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed. One other note. Looking at Jordan Love's numbers, it is hard to see Williams not surpassing what Love did last year (4159 yds, 32 TDs) with this Bears group. Love had those numbers without a receiver that caught 70+ receptions or had over 800 yards. His receivers caught 64, 59, 39, 34, 31, 30, and 28 respectively. Last season, Allen caught 108, Moore 96, Kmet 73, Everett 51, Swift 39, and Herbert caught 20. That is 387 receptions WITHOUT Odunze. Love had 372 completions. Even if you take away 20% from all the Bears listed, then add 63 for Odunze (JSN had 63 last year with Waldron as rookie WR3), Williams would have 372 completions. How ironic.

An interesting tie in with the 2025 draft is Fields' play in 2024. Also, since PIT declined his 5th-year option, he will be a free agent in 2025. So technically, the Steelers could get back a comp pick for him in 2026 if he signs a big enough deal with another team, which could negate the pick they traded to the Bears in 2025 (a year later).

They can also wait to see what they have at Center with Shelton and Bates.

OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching. It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria: HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023 DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022 CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018 Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams. Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff. The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.

Plus I think if you wait until after the draft the signing(s) don't count to the comp pick formula, so I presume there is a wave of free agency we will see take off once the comp impacts are gone. My guess is also the more time you can wait on Connor the better cause you have a better idea of his general health/recovery from the injury.

I agree - I think people are overating a strong finish. The dline has Sweat who came out on fire - but it is still on the mediocre side. DB's look good but are young so can take a step back vs. forward and we literally played so few quality QB's all year. Do I think the D is solid - sure, but this is not a top 5 D, I would argue it might be a Top 10 D. Note: I am very happy with direction of the team - but I think we have a lot of overhyping potentially going on here. Just like with the team won 7 games but its now destined for 11. We had some win's against really really bad teams and yes we had some tough losses but at same time we benefited from playing teams with hurt QB's, etc (as did teams with us).

That's cool in theory, but that's not how the math works. Bad teams improve at a greater rate because they are usually young, bitten with injuries and/or coach loses the team and is replaced. If those teams win three or four more, they still aren't good. Vegas builds billion dollar casino's and the have us at 8.5. I think we sneak in at nine wins.

I think the Bears defense in total was top 5 for the last 12 weeks of the season, i.e. once we got Sweat in there. Doesn't mean they will be top 5 next year, or that they will dominate the good teams, but I can see why there is reason to hope they will?

adam, cool and interesting analysis as always. Thanks for that.

Interesting to note that, with all the Vikings moves, their 2025 draft picks are: - Their own 1st - Their own 5th - The Browns 5th and that’s it. We thought we didn’t have much draft capital this year, but we had two top ten picks and another day 2 pick. If McCarthy isn’t the guy and/or the Vikings struggle, they are going to be in some trouble in the 2025 offseason.

I'm a little fuzzy, but didn't we give up around 450 yards and a Packer receiver dropped a sure TD? Please don't ever tell me they didn't have anything to play against the Packers. Also, Justin had everything to play for. If he was as beloved as stated, the D would've been inspired.

He looks goofy at first glance. But if you look deep into it, he is covering ground very quickly. He's so bendy, it looks like he's made of rubber. Once he hits the professional weight room and gets his hand fighting down, it's going to be like trying to block flowing water.

I'm 100% on board with this and it's possible Poles had an agreement with him to re-visit talks when he was healthier. (i.e.don't go anywhere without talking to us). There's no doubt Williams would prefer a longer term deal and most teams likely wanted to give him a 1yr deal or at least less guaranteed money. Maybe this is why he bypassed the center position in the draft. He kept enough cap space to make a deal like this.

We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year. Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players. So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins. Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc). https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs. In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense? I see top half and but not top five.

I don't think we are giving Booker enough praise. Draft Buzz had him ranked as the 68th best player. Brugler had him at 78. He was only a rotational player, 474 snaps only started one game. Which makes 37 pressures and 9 sacks that much bigger. One to two years of NFL development and we could have a 10+ sack guy. This year as a situational pass rusher we could see 5 to 7 sacks which would be great. At 240 he needs at least 15 lbs added but isn't terrible against the run. Also Draft Buzz had Kiran Amedgadjie ranked as the 63rd best player. Best punter in the last 10 years and this could be the best draft the Bears ever had even with only 5 players.

If I remember correctly someone broke down where the players came from that made up rosters. (average over the league) I think 1st led that % but UDFAs were second.

A couple things I look at. I don't look at the team that went 7-10, I look at the team that went 5-3 the last 8 games. A top defense, and a better offense. Rah, Rah for D. We have Sweat for the full year, for Flus to better know how to use him. Stevenson, Dexter, Pickens, Terrell Smith will all improve. One more year of the DBs playing together with a better Free Safety. Booker and who ever else he brings in will add to the pass rush. The only loss was Justin Jones, who at the time everyone thought just played average as a grade. I think he was good. Top 5 Defense. Rah Rah for O. Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Everett, and Swift. Herbert is a good back but doesn't have enough durability to be a dominant 3 down runner. Johnson has another year experience and Swift is the bell cow RB. A quality backup TE, Center position ( Bates and Shelton). Improved. Depth along the line, drafted a swing OT and the most important acquisition, Shane Waldron. He run an offense with 3 quality WRs, lots of 2 TE plays, had a Bell cow RB. Took advantage of an average QB and generated an offense. He has better quality players to fit in those spots. Top 5 offense.

me too! never heard of them! I googled it and found that link. Crazy.

Wow - I had no idea. I was thinking they were like a d2 school.