Bearstalk

I've been seeing a bunch of online rumor-mongering around the idea of a trade deadline deal for an Offensive Lineman. All of it seems to be around the Guard position. There are at least three different names I've read. I'm not saying this is going to happen at all. Just that people farming for clicks have been saying it. But my question to you guys is, if you were going to trade for an OL at the deadline, and assume the player would be pretty good, but not necessarily blue chip, like a top 10 guy, but not a top 5 guy - which position would you trade for? Which current OL would you replace? For me the OG question has been a little better with Pryor and Jenkins/Mu…

Bears are 4-2 at the bye.

I will have the videos later, but the Bears (Edmunds) caused a fumble after a completion to Travis Etienne, but they overturned the play on the field as an incomplete pass. It was clear that Etienne caught it facing the QB, then turned to go forward when Edmunds punched the ball out. The call on the field was fumble and Bears recovery. Then in the ARZ/GB game, James Conner did the exact same thing, catch and turn, and they called it a fumble in GBs favor. No review. Crazy.

Obviously the passing game was a little slow to get started, but has picked up the last 3 weeks with Caleb averaging 275 yds per game, if he can stay near 250 per game, there is a good chance 2-3 receivers break 1K. I don't think Allen is going to do it. Same with Velus or Scott. Thru 5 weeks: 1. Moore - 294, needs 59 y/g to hit 1K 2. Kmet - 219, needs 65 y/g to hit 1K 3. Odunze - 206, needs 66 y/g to hit 1K 4. Swift - 165, needs 70 y/g to hit 1K 5. Allen - 81, needs 77 y/g to hit 1K 6. Everett - 22, needs 82 y/g to hit 1K 7. Velus - 8, needs 83 y/g to hit 1K 8. Scott - 0, needs 84 y/g to hit 1K Swift is 13th amongst RBs in yards from scrimmag…

These guys are on fire. 9 WRs already making an impact. Nabers leads the NFL in receptions. Whittington is 3rd in receptions amongst WR rookies and he is a 6th round pick. How does LAR do it? Kupp, then Puka, now Whittington. Thomas looks like a steal at #23. Outside of Whittington, Thomas may end up being the best value WR pick in the draft. I am not worried about Odunze because his issue is not skill, it has been target volume. Once his targets go up, he will be right there with the leaders. Nabers 35-386-3 (1st) Thomas 22-397-3 (1st) Whittington 18-201-0 (6th) Harrison 17-279-4 (1st) Odunze 15-206-1 (1st) McConkey 15-176-2 (2nd) Leget…

So this guy got 1 target and 1 reception in Week 1. Even with that week of low usage, he still is 5th amongst TEs in receptions and yards, 3rd for 1st Downs, and has the highest Catch Rate amongst the top 20 TEs this season. He is 8th in AAV for his contract amongst TEs, only 500K more than Friermuth. It feels like the Bears got a very solid deal with Kmet who is signed thru 2027. His cap hit is fixed, so every year it is going to become an even better deal.

Early Line has Bears favored by 1 or a PK, depending on the sportsbook. JAX is 1-4, defense allowed 34, 24, and 47 their last 3 games. They barely beat a Flacco led Colts without Taylor. The Jags offense got going with 37 pts. This is going to be a close game, but I am going with 24-20 Bears going into the bye at 4-2. The Bears defense is the best unit amongst both teams.

Braxton Jones is in year three and is regressing. We haven't been told anything about the neck injury he sustained last year, but something is clearly wrong. He is trying to catch his opponents instead of striking out at them. He is constantly too close to Caleb in the pocket. A QB can feel this. Jones is not giving Caleb any room to side step for throwing and/or running lanes. Something has to change with his approach, because he bloody awful. I'm interested to see some of Seattle's tape from last year to see if it's a Waldron, Braxton or Morgan thing. Crazy thing is Darnell Wright is doing the same thing.

CBS traditionally hates the Bears, I was shocked to see them at #14 on their Power Rankings, I was thinking they were between 15-20 right now based on their record. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/ ESPN has the Bears at #20 NFL.com has the Bears at #22 Yahoo has the Bears at #18 So an aggregate has them at 18.5 which really feels spot on.

I hope Stevenson can improve, he seems a little off compared to how he finished the season last year. Otherwise, look at how the All-Pro CBs and Safeties from last year are performing compared to our guys: Johnson - 78.8 / 78.4 Cov (Is there any doubt who the best CB is out of this group?) Sauce 66.9 / 69.4 Cov (AP1) - Sauce is not elite. Horn 65.2 / 64.1 Cov (NFL1) - Overrated, never should've won this over JJ last year. Surtain - 59.7 / 56.5 Cov - People always put him in the top tier of CBs, why? Bland (IR) Byard 74.3 / 68.6 (The vet is leading the way) Brisker 67.2 / 65.5 Cov (Mr. Consistent and improving) H…

If you get a chance, listen to this podcast with Flus. He sounds much better in this type of format. I wonder if it's the press conferences that he is just not comfortable with. Here he sounds much better and actually sounds like he knows what he is doing.

I believe the Legion of Boom was notorious for this, but did anyone watch the MNF game last night? Detroit's defense has seemed to adopt the Legion of Boom's tactics of holding and DPI on every play knowing the refs won't call them all. They basically conditioned the officials during the game to allow DPI later in the game, and it worked. There were at least 3 no-calls that were easy DPI calls that changed the outcome of the game. Carlton Davis (DET DB) is also allowed to yell in the face of officials, touch them multiple times, but Marsh (PIT game a few years ago) can get bumped by an official and he is called for a penalty? Super weird, but if the Bears have…

Most people gave Waldron credit for Geno's resurgence. With Waldron gone, Geno now leads the NFL in passing yards (averaging 295.5 per game), which is on pace for over 5K. He has 19 completions more than the 2nd QB and has thrown for 57 1st Downs in 4 weeks. Kenneth Walker's Yards per carry his first two seasons (with Waldron): 4.6 and 4.1. This year: 5.7. Metcalf is on pace for career bests in yards and receptions Smith-Njigba, who was critical of Waldron in the offseason, has 25 receptions in 4 games, on pace for over 100. He had 63 last year. Charbonnet, mainly a 3rd Down back, is on pace to quadruple last season's receiving numbers. Seattle …

Great game for the Aussie, but he needs to keep it up for the remainder of the season. I have no clue why he was doing a Gill impersonation the first 3 weeks. After that great game, he now is 19th in Punting Average, T-5th in punts inside the 20, and T-4th in total punts. I hope he can creep into the top 10 by the end of the season because half the guys ahead of him are UDFAs. So the 4th round pick usage is fine if he is an elite punter, but if he is just "average", then there was no point in using a 4th rounder on him. Hopefully he reads this thru remote viewing and kicks the crap out of the ball for the rest of the season.

Some good and some bad in Week 4. Good: Waldron finally leaning on the elite players: Moore - 55 snaps Kmet - 54 snaps Odunze - 47 snaps Allen - 41 snaps Swift - 38 snaps Johnson - 22 snaps Carter - 0 offensive snaps Bad: Everett - 20 snaps (good for the offense, but this looks like a terrible signing, should've kept Bates) Herbert - 0 offensive snaps (has to be on the trading block?) Scott - 2 snaps (disappointing 4th Round pick) Velus - healthy scratch (they have to be preventing his trade value from falling any further) Amegadjie - 0 snaps this season (waste of a 3rd Round pick when they needed a Day 1 contributor)

8 carries and 2 receptions thru 4 weeks. In his last 2 seasons, he was averaging over 50 yards per game, that's down to 4. He clearly has been relegated to RB3/4, and if not for injuries to Blasingame and Homer, might've been a healthy scratch the last two weeks. He did not have an offensive snap against the Rams. As far as I can tell, that was only the 2nd time in his career that he suited up for a game and didn't get a touch (carry, reception, or KR). It is only the 5th time he didn't get a carry in his career, and 3 of the other 4 games were his first 3 of his rookie year and the 4th was Week 15 his rookie year. And for other guys, they might as well see wh…

Andy Dalton, Old QB1 Revenge Game. He just lost to his first team, CIN this week. CAR gave up 34 pts to CIN. CAR has a bad defense and a bad offense, and an overall worse team than LAR. They have allowed 47, 26, 22, and 34 so far. Their defense allows 35 pts on the road. Every team has scored at least 3 TDs against CAR this season. I am calling it now, Bears 31-16. CAR averages 18 pts a game and allows 32 pts per game so far thru 4 weeks. Defense now has 2 weeks of Andy Dalton tape.

So if the season ended today, the Bears are WC3:

So I have always liked QBR as a way to represent QB production over other methods. I just didn't know that it had such a strong correlation to wins. Looking over the first 3 weeks of the season, a team has at least an 80% chance of victory when their QBR is in the top 10. On the flip side, a team has over a 70% chance at a loss if they are in the bottom 10. The outliers are usually super close games. Purdy had the #6 QBR and lost 27-24 this week. In Week 2, Hurts had the #3 QBR and lost 22-21, Burrow lost 26-25, and Jones lost 21-18. 3 losses by 5 pts. In Week 1, Richardson had the #1 QBR and lost 29-27, and Murray had the #4 QBR and lost 34-28. On the low end…

After 3 weeks, there are 14 teams with a 1-2 record. CLE is technically the last WC team in the AFC. So the Bears could be as low as #4 or as high as #17 thru 3 weeks. Honestly, I am surprised CIN and JAX are 0-3, but CIN did look terrible in joint practices, so it does make sense a little bit. I have no clue how JAX got worse, but they did have a super easy schedule last season that may have masked their issues. Crazy to think the entire QB draft class with Fields may end up not living up to the hype, with Lawrence as the last victim. 1. JAX 0-3 2. TEN 0-3 3. CIN 0-3 ------------ 4. IND 1-2 5. NE 1-2 6. CLE 1-2 7. MIA 1-2 8. CAR 1-2 9. DAL 1-2 …