AZ54

Most of what I've heard is that there are about 25 first round grades on players in this draft. That seems to be the case most years. IMO I'd probably replace Ronald Jones with Josh Allen, his physical talent is elite even if the game tape isn't there. At a position of extreme value that figures into it. I've also heard quite a few reports of Sutton having a 2nd Rd grade, supposedly even the Cowboys have him ranked there. Athlete, yes, route runner not yet. What Stinger said about all the different opinions, in this draft the top-50 players on boards seem to vary a lot.

Tremaine Edmunds... even if Nelson is on the board. My likes: Nelson, ......if both are gone (and unless Chubb or Barkley are there) I say we just trade down. I don't see a lot of difference between a player like Ward vs. Jaire Alexander. Fitzpatrick vs. James. Or even adding Ridley at say #15 and then perhaps an additional 2nd Rd pick (we might give back a 4th).

The LBs were in order: Rashaan Evans stats from 42 career games Leighton VanderEsche stats from 28 career games Tremaine Edmunds stats from 32 career games Roquan Smith stats from 38 career games When I started to put this together I expected to see far more passes defensed from Roquan Smith. Seeing just three total in 38 games was a shock to me. I expected he'd clearly be the leader in this stat among the top 4 LBs. The other surprise to me was the higher percentage of TFL that Edmunds has. For a player who is often said to be lacking instincts he is well above the other first round talents. Sacks are not counted in TFLs so when we add in his 10 sacks it further puts him ahead. If this is how well a player with no instincts performs what's he going to do when he really knows how to diagnose plays? Or flip it the other way...his floor is not nearly as low as some project it to be. In their careers Roquan Smith total tackles averages to 6.6/gm, Edmunds avg 6.6 tackles/gm. Based on the their TFL stats I would say the criticism of VanderEsche being a chase and tackle guy, meaning he's not ahead of the play, is probably correct. That doesn't mean he can't improve there with more experience. With the least amount of game experience his PDs, and FF standout but the level of competition isn't as high as others.

Sorry, these are all ILB.

Just based on career stats alone which LB would you take? I'm just curious with the healthy debate of how un-instinctive Edmunds is and that it's a liability early in his career. This is the stat line for the top 4 LBs in the draft (Chubb played DE). In a blind test this is about which numbers catch your eye in terms of what you want to add to our defense. (I have not posted a poll on this new site so I'm not sure on the formatting and if this is going to end up a double post.)

Could be that we swap picks again with the 49ers if they are desperate enough to get Edmunds. We need to throw out the old trade charts. Those values are no longer valid. Go back to the last few drafts to see what was given up for QBs, including what we gave up last year. What the Jets have already given up this year. Based on the trade chart this swap from 8 to 9 would only net 50pts but when you have elite top 5 caliber talent sitting there the value is higher. http://draftanalyst.com/nfl-draft-news-notes-april-24 In that recent mock, I have the San Francisco 49ers trading down with the Buffalo Billsand selecting Leighton Vander Esch. This won’t be the case if Tremaine Edmunds is available when the Niners are called to the clock, as he is the player the team covets.

I'm not changing and I still value Edmunds more than Roquan Smith. I went back and watched a game of each and I see the same mistakes people complain about with Edmunds made by Smith. He gets caught up inside at times mis-reading the keys. One thing is clear, if any blocker gets his hands on Smith he's out of the play unless he can loop back around for a tackle a bit further downfield. I watch Edmunds at the goal line at 1:05 against Clemson (seems like reasonable high level college competition) and he pushes off the block from the RG and stuffs the RB preventing a TD. Again around 1:20 Edmunds fends off the block from the LT and a WR crashing in on him to get into the outside gap. Both are plays Smith is not capable of. Edmunds isn't perfect either or he'd easily be a top 5 pick. At 1:40 he misses his assignment on the RB out of the backfield. Then again if you watch the Auburn game Roquan Smith makes the same mistake. If you continue watching Edmunds against Clemson you'll see he doesn't make that mistake again, and often picks up the RB out of the backfield. http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/11/13/roquan-smith-vs-auburn-2017/ http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/10/16/tremaine-edmunds-vs-clemson-2017/ I'll cede the fact Smith is the better LB in coverage but, there is not a huge gap here. Anywhere around the LOS in traffic, and especially in the redzone I prefer Edmunds. In fact I think Edmunds is the perfect compliment to Trevathan.

On that list of small school gems I do like the RB Trenton Cannon. He's got KR ability, can catch a bit (only see him on little swing routes out of the backfield). He's not very big but he seems more versatile than Smoke so if we're going to stash a RB on the practice squad he might be worth a spot.

Pace keeps things close to the vest before every draft so there's not a lot of chatter about the Bears. Nonetheless, I'd still like to have a thread where we can put all draft rumors. Technically what other teams do in the draft is Bears related. Let's start off with some Bears tidbits... http://draftanalyst.com/small-school-gems-offense Bears have interest in a small school QB, Connor Jessop, and a small school OG, Matthew Gono. Three NFC North teams are showing interest in Gono. I'd say Jessop is a UDFA candidate. I don't see much anticipation but he is accurate. Gono has some good raw talent and could be in play very late in the draft but it's always hard to evaluate against this level of competition. One thing we know is the Bears are putting a lot of effort into finding OG prospects this draft.

You really see Roquan at 6'1" 235lbs playing OLB in our scheme?

Roquan Smith is terrific at see ball get ball. He'd make a perfect fit in the role Lance Briggs played for us in the Lovie 2. Today he'd be a perfect replacement for Trevathan. Keep in mind that 4-3 WLB perfect fit because teams that run that D might be willing to trade up for him. If we bring him in and then in a year or two he replaces Trevathan that'd be fine. I'm not so sure how well he'll do handling the strong side responsibilities. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2015/05/28/durkins-playbook-inside-look-at-the-mike-jack-linebackers/ Edmunds on the other hand can play at every LB position in Fangio's D, both inside roles, and at OLB. Either player helps this defense take a step forward but the potential and versatility Edmunds has makes him my choice. We're paying Fangio a lot of money to hone the skills of elite talents like Edmunds. Unless based on their interviews or background checks they don't think he'll put the time in to study and learn his craft. Those are the things I just don't know.

My dream scenario... We are at #8 with both Edmunds and Nelson still there and Chucky calls asking to trade up from #10 so he can take Roquan Smith. We should net a 4th and 5th Rd pick in exchange. We drop back to 10 and still get one of Edmunds or Nelson. We can package a couple 4ths to move up into the 3rd Rd if we choose but I'm not opposed to taking 3 players in the 4th Rd this year. We should see some good WR, CB, Oline, or RB options there.

We have a much more relaxed and, IMO, confident Trubisky.

If the Ravens who are desperate for WRs left him alone then we should expect nothing from him.

All I know so far is my rumor mill says Bears will be here at Cardinals on 23 Sep.

No need to worry about a practice squad guy who was going nowhere as a DT. At best he shows some promise at OG and makes the practice squad again. At worst someone else who is better makes the practice squad at OG.

It's not just smoking some marijuana. It's got to be really bad for a person to need help with an addiction. Beyond those concerns I just see him as a player who makes the easy plays. He rarely dominates the competition. Is that a result of his addiction issues hurting his desire? Perhaps. Assume he cleaned up before the 2017 season, and of course he also had that offseason shoulder surgery impacting his start to the 2017 season. But starting there and finishing the season, it is logical to assume if he's got his head on right that he's working full speed toward being a 1st Rd draft pick. Then he refused to work out at the Combine, followed by a 4.85 forty weeks later at his Pro Day. I'm not opposed to giving people second chances (so to speak since this is his first NFL draft), but for me these things all point to a guy who still doesn't have his act together. Or perhaps, as is his playing style, he simply does not love the game. Compare Key to someone like Josh Sweat who has worked very hard to recover from his knee injury and has outstanding athletic ability. I don't know the medical prognosis on Sweat's knee but assume it is decent enough that he'll play 4-5 years perhaps with some limited snaps as a 3rd down pass rusher. If I had to take a risk on one of these two players in Rd 2/3 I'd go with Sweat every time figuring I can at least get some exceptional play during his first contract.

It's hard to really know for sure but there are plenty of rumors out there about his drug addiction and going to rehab. https://www.secrant.com/rant/sec-football/arden-key/68713966/ https://www.theadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/lsu/2017/02/15/lsu-star-de-arden-key-taking-leave-football/9795989 http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2018/04/lsu_de_arden_key_wont_help_bei.html http://www.profootballweekly.com/2018/04/05/way-we-hear-it-concern-over-lsus-arden-key-starts-with-his-outside-influences/aekqxhp/ That kind of approach almost never works in this kind of scrutinizing climate. It turned out that Key's disappearance in the spring was to check himself into rehab for a marijuana problem, Pro Football Weekly reported. Key returned to school after the rehab and was suspended for another failed drug test. That part of the story wasn't as concerning to teams as another choice Key made while he was isolated from the team, the report stated. Against the words of his team doctors, Key had his shoulder operated on. The school later looked at the shoulder and determined it was not a successful surgery, per the report.

I'm still not that high on him. Is he really going to be more dedicated to his craft when he's a millionaire? It's hard to see that happening. If we were adding him to a solid group and could take a chance it might be different but we must get it right on the OLB we draft.

I think it did come down in part to Meredith's ability to be ready for training camp. We have an entirely new offense and he's still relatively new the WR role. Then you have Meredith saying he thinks he'll be ready for training camp (paraphrasing what I've read). If he can't practice this offseason or in training camp how much will he really contribute during the season? It's really hard to play catch up with such a limited practice schedule during the regular season unless you already know the offense.

Why are you drafting two RTs? There's either a CB or WR there for the taking that should have better upside than Moore in the 5th.

He's been doing it for 10 years or more (going back to his college days). How could we not think he'd be a pain in the ass when Robinson gets healthy and Dez gets less snaps?

He absolutely can play some DE. Vea is a powerful beast but he's also quick, even in lateral movements. That lateral movement skill is where he differs from Goldman who has decent quickness for his size when he's moving forward. Vea does not have great endurance, but that's partly because of his body type. In college Washington used him all over the defensive front and as games wore on he was less effective. However, put him in the rotation and he will handle some early down snaps at DE, he'll be first backup for Goldman at NT, and can spell Hicks as well. Plus we will mix in some Bullard or RRH on passing downs. That much depth in a defensive front allows rotating DTs/DE's out on downs or for a series and it will make them incredibddddddly tough. Last year it was obvious HIcks was wearing out late in games, but he was playing a ton of snaps. Get Vea in the rotation and remove about 10-15% of Hicks snaps and he'll be even more effective. We'd be doing the same for Goldman. When Goldman, Hicks, and Vea have fresh legs each has plenty of pass rush. Our ILB will only worry about off-tackle runs so play action up the middle won't be as effective. I think the OLB will be shading a bit more to outside too having to worry less about the inside gap. That helps pass rush off the edge. In an odd way it's the opposite version of what our Oline could become if we draft Nelson. If you can take away or control something on the field, like the interior rush lanes, it simplifies what everyone else in back is concentrating on. Beast out on one interior line or the other.

Interesting signing. Young WR with some upside potential who can challenge White or a 3rd/4th Rd rookie for reps. We'll have 3 WRs on relatively equal footing albeit for different reasons. With his special teams experience Fowler could end up replacing Bellamy if White and the rookie are looking good and we keep 5 WRs. I think that's quite possible for a team that says it wants to run 3 TE sets often, plus having a guy like Cohen on the roster. Robinson, Gabriel, (White, Fowler, rookie) Bellamy.

Another Pro Bowl player on the roster would make some of the roster weak spots less visible on Sundays. If Robinson lights it up then Gabriel will be more effective. I feel the same way about putting Tremaine Edmunds in the middle of the D. A lot of little things should be harder for offenses to take advantage of. Add QNelson to the Oline and ,while our OTs aren't perfect Trubisky should always have a nice place to step forward and out of harms way, and the running lanes might be ridiculously big at times. Add Saquon Barkley and everyone else on offense looks better, except of course Jordan Howard because he won't be here. Of course if Trubisky develops as we hope he'd have a similar effect.