AZ54

Imagine, if you will, a place and time in the future where the Carolina Panthers have the worst record in the NFL and the Bears have one of the best QBs. Ryan Poles tells the rest of the NFL if you want Caleb Williams you know the price.

Can we start a new thread for all the memes about Frank Reich and Chris Ballard?

No harm no foul. It isn't often I get something right.

Me too. A bird in the hand approach here fits as does the contract.

Who told me they wouldn't give up DJ Moore if they were trading up for a QB? Always aim high! Now we actually have a good WR group at the top 3 and will likely add a day 3 WR to help round it out with Velus.

That's why I played around with a drop back outside the top 10 in a mock draft. In that scenario my preference it to a RT with our first pick. I'd rather have the highly ranked OT than a highly ranked slot WR. JSN won't matter much if Fields is already scrambling out of the pocket and if all we can do is throw quick short routes JSN won't survive the season.

But wait there's more... https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/free-agent-players-who-fit-bears-needs Pro Football Focus might have faults but does a better job than any other independent source of grading off film, particularly on the offensive line. And last year they graded 81 tackles in the NFL. Taylor finished dead last as a run blocker, 81st. Even though he was highly ranked as a pass blocker, signing the worst run blocker in the league at right tackle for a run-oriented offense seems to defeat the purpose of free agency.

Did a double trade down outside the top 10 just to see how it feels. I actually like the result and this is only a 5 Rd draft. I kinda like having 4 first round picks in 2024 too. That might be wishful thinking but ending up with 3 first rd picks is definitely a possibility. With that we can control back to back NFL drafts. I tried to stick with what I think are realistic landing spots for players. For example Tyjae Spears was still around in the 4th when I took Chase but I think he'll be gone for sure. Chase might be gone too as I think he's a 3rd Rd talent, Sydney maybe higher. I like both of these players and wouldn't mind having twins on our roster. Overall I think the first 4 picks are very realistic landing spots for those players. With that I might not mind trading back outside the top 10. The last 3 might be realistic landing spots too as they all seem like depth players in the NFL. You might notice I don't know much about LB prospects because there isn't one in the list.

We have the inside scoop on Seumalo with Ian Cunningham.

Me too.

Good move, he's really good at what he does. Seems like a glue-guy in the locker room too.

That seems like the sweet spot on the value/performance curve. Brown is likely going to ask for at least $2-4mil/yr more. OTC has Taylor valued at $13mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $14mil/yr. OTC has Brown valued at $12.5mil/yr, Spotrac has him at $22mil/yr (link in case I forgot how to read big numbers: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/orlando-brown-jr-25182/market-value/ ) That's a wild disparity for Brown but you can bet he'll be asking for the $22mil version. The difference is more than enough to sign Pocic who has value around $5mil/yr at OTC plus have change leftover. Scanning all the FA Centers at OTC just a simple valuation ranking it is Pocic at $5mil/yr and then a couple guys around $3mil/yr with the rest under $2mil/yr. Trying to figure out where to put resources Center seems like a single FA option which makes me think Poles will lean toward them trying to fix that via the draft and secure the known commodity vet RT. Doing the same valuation review for LG shows Ben Powers at nearly $10mil/yr, followed by Dalton Risner at $5mil/yr. Isaac Seumalo has no valuation on OTC. I don't know if Ben Powers fits our scheme. His draft profile from 2019 says he's lacks good lateral movement skills. I can't imagine that's better in 2023. OTOH Dalton Risner can move better as per his draft profile (as OT) although there are still some limitations. Oddly his draft comparison was Cody Whitehair. Supply and demand will likely put Risner over $5mil/yr but cutting Whitehair would net us $4mil in cap space. Risner would also not be so cost prohibitive long term if we were to draft an OG early like Mauch/Avila to play Center. Just in case those guys ended up not being a good fit at C. Cutting Patrick as well would completely negate the cap hit from signing Risner. I have no clue how Risner's performance compares to Whitehair. I'm not saying this is something we should do, just that it could be a path forward to get a bit younger and cheaper on the Oline until we get our draft picks ready to take over. Call him a "bridge" LG if you want.

https://trenchwarfare.substack.com/p/2023-ol-free-agency-rankings

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/03/jimmy-garoppolo-on-texans-radar When I see this my first thought is the Texans plan to draft Anthony Richardson. Sign Garoppolo and you have a caretaker for a year or two until Richardson is ready. However, any of the other QB needy teams could take the same approach even if they trade up to #1. That of course would leave either Stroud or Young available at #3. Cards want to trade back and most likely want a bigger haul than just dropping to #4 would give them. Ballard has to sort out if he's happy with Levis as he might be the only option left. There are plenty of reasons for him to be ok with that. Poles needs to go get his draft treasure chest filled up so we can watch this show from the bleachers.

I agree. Use the FA money to fix other positions.

No to Miles Sanders. I think he has some of the same vision problem Montgomery has at times. While Sanders' 4.9ypc might look good behind that Oline, if he's an upgrade over Monty he should have run for far more than 1269yds last year. That's just 74yds per game. Between those two I'd stick with the known and likely cheaper commodity.

Paris Johnson all day. Protecting Fields is job 1, I'll find a slot WR somewhere even if it's next year.

Zone Blocking Scheme (sorry it was late).

I think Anderson has much more lateral quickness than Mack. Which leads me to believe Anderson will have a higher win rate if his first move is stopped than Mack does. To do that Anderson will have to match Mack's intensity and hustle which was elite but I like the odds of that happening. I like him but can't put Tyree Wilson in a category with Mack. That will have to be earned. The Chandler Jones comparison seems about right.

Agreed more power guy but seems to have enough agility to bend around the edge even if he didn't do that much in college. Again these 3-man fronts used in college make it hard to assess based on just highlights. I'm in agreement we need one strong edge setter to help keep the Oline from expanding the width of the play, and one DE who is more pass rusher so I can relax more when opponents have a 3rd and 10+.

Winning is the reason we play the game but for me this is very much a team sport across the board. Stars in this game can only take a bad roster so far. If Fields had played better, especially early in the season, we'd have won more games. If his supporting case had played better in the 2nd half of the season when Fields was playing at a higher level, we'd have won more games. There were 5 weeks mid-season where we led the entire NFL in offense and could only win one game (NE). I can't see how that was the QBs fault. FWIW Jimmy Garoppolo has a 70% W-L record. He's nowhere close to the talent Jackson or Fields are but, if that winning record is the QB standard, we'll see who pounds the table to sign him.

It is interesting that Fields and Lamar Jackson each threw for 2242yds last year. I find it surprising that Jackson has only eclipsed 3000 yards passing in one season. Fields still isn't on his level yet as he needed 3 more games to get that but he also doesn't have a Pro Bowl TE or any Pro Bowl player to throw to. I would like to see Jackson go elsewhere, to a team that will focus on his passing and pocket presence. He has improved a lot as a passer, better than I expected FWIW, and too often I don't like the way Baltimore is using him on runs even when he is obviously injured. If he played more like Mahomes and used those legs to buy more time behind the LOS I think his passing numbers would go up and his injuries down. Coaches need to help him learn that and then run as last resort.

If we were to sign him RT is where I'd like to see him play for us too it's still not clear if he fits our ZBS I've never watched enough of him to even hazard a guess but I definitely don't think he did that in Baltimore

You almost always need a top draft pick to find a starting LT. When you sit at the end of the first round you absolutely can't wait for your guy to be there at the end of the 2nd Rd.

There is a lot more noise that a deal with Carolina is a realistic and likely option. Poles said he has 6-8 Blue players and he wants to make sure he gets one of them. If 4 QBs go ahead of us that means dropping back no further than 9 or maybe 11 (using realistic QB needy teams). Poles also said teams want a deal early before FA so they can plan, which makes sense. That makes sense for us too. Of course Poles said to make the move earlier like that will require a bit more compensation. There is no doubt that Poles going public with all this in his interview with Peter King is using it as negotiating leverage. He let 'em all know to get their best and final offer on the table now. I don't think Richardson is a good option for Ballard and the Colts because it appears the owner wants a more proven player who can step in this year. You can probably say the same about Levis although he has more game experience. At this point the world knows someone is drafting a QB at #1 and HOU at #2. Unless they are really in love with one of them, there might be little point to Ballard trading up to 3 for either Levis or Richardson. He's in a tough spot and the price for #1 is going up. If I were him I'd be having a conversation with the owner on if he'd be comfortable with the time needed to develop Levis or Richardson or does he want the QBs with the higher floor? There is some suspicion that Rodgers could end up a Raider which is why they are quiet in all this noise so far. Don't upset the man by talking about rookie QBs. Whoever falls out of the #1 bidding is likely to take the Cards offer at #3. The Colts won't move beyond #4 so Raiders could be left out if they wait too long on Rodgers. Getting rid of Carr to pick up JimmyG seems like a stupid move although it's cheaper. If he's not an option I have to believe they will want to get into the QB draft hunt so you will hear more noise about "the Rodgers decision" this week. This is a fun week and from here we'll roll right into FA on 13 Mar.