adam
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Posts posted by adam
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I will add one extra player, but from Special Teams. I think we are going to see an elite Tory Taylor with fewer total punts, but his yards per punt and % inside the 20 will go up.
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4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
I tend to agree on paper.
To those who say i am only pessimistic, I would offer that not knowing until you get on grass goes both ways. This team; roster and coaches - if it works out like it could, might be a formidable team in December. I wont say they cant possibly win a Superbowl this year or go to one, but the more reasonable and likely goal is a playoff berth.
I remember the 1984 team destroying opponents, and then getting totally outclassed by the 49ers in the championship game. I could imagine something similar for us this year - having an easier time than we've seen in a long time with the bottom half ot eh league, but still needing to learn hard lessons when they encounter truly great teams. ANd that's a good goal for this year - to learn what it actually takes to win big games.
And of course they could be worse than they look on paper too.
But there is definitely reason for optimism this year, and I cant wait to see it on grass so we can see what it is we really have here.
I'm just put off by all the talking heads telling us what they think are facts at this time of year. Some say Caleb is a bust, some say we are ready to dominate - all are making claims for clicks, because no one knows right now, and anyone who says they do, is selling snake oil.
Plenty of reason for hope, but not too many facts are known at this time.That 84 Team was wild. The defense held opponents under 10 pts, 7 times. Every win, including the playoff win against WAS, the defense allowed 14 or less. In every loss, they allowed 20 or more.
So they were 11-0 allowing 14 or less and 0-7 when allowing 20 or more for the season (including playoffs)
What is even crazier is that followed a season where they went 7-0 when allowing 19 or less in 1983, and then followed it up with the 85 team that went 16-0 in those games. Check out how good Dikta's teams were when they allowed 19 or less:
7-0 in 1983
11-0 in 1984
16-0 in 1985
13-0 in 1986
7-1 in 1987 (NO 19-17) Strike season - Bears blew a 17-3 halftime lead.
13-0 in 1988
5-1 in 1989 (GB 14-13) - Bears blew 13-7 lead in 4th quarter.
10-1 in 1990 (WAS 10-9) - Bears blew 9-0 halftime lead.82-3 when holding opponents to 19 or less from 1983-1990 and led in all 85 of those games. Wow.
The team was also highly dependent on McMahon's health. Fuller was the only QB to lose in 1985 and 1986 regular seasons. McMahon was 17-0, Tomczak was 6-0, Flutie was 1-0, Fuller was 4-3. McMahon was 36-5 as a starter from 84-88 but missed so many games.
Putting those two together, from 83-88, McMahon never lost a game when the Bears defense allowed 19 or less.
In an odd mirror to that, Fields has never won a game when his defense has allowed 21 pts or more, he is 0-22 in those games.
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Doing some stat comparisons, it really is hard to find a way for the Bears to not have a top 10 offense. If Johnson's offense only brings last year's offense halfway to his annual totals (for EPA/Play), then when you nudge it further considering the offensive roster upgrades (Thuney, Dalman, Jackson, Loveland, Burden), it could easily be a top 5 unit.
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10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
THe reason I keep saying wait to see it in pads, is that we've made all the moves on paper, and now we have to see if they are what we hope they are. Once we can evaluate everyone, then is the next opportunity to look at free agents and trades.
This is true for every team every year. Around this time of year it gets quiet, and then during or after camp, it heats up again, and that makes good sense.
So it would be foolish to say that we are riding with Swift as HB1, or that we are happy with our pass rush, or that we are keeping everyone.
Albert Breer just said this, and it tracks right along with how teams operate at this time of year. Not just the Bears in 2025, but all of them every year.
"They'll get a look at D'andre Swift and Roschon Johnson at running back, and Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo (who plays some inside on passing downs) on the edges when the pads go on, and then maybe consider guys such as Jamaal Williams at running back or Za'darius Smith or Matthew Judon as edge rushers"
It makes sense and it's logical, and we see it every year.
Also during this period of time the hype machine is all that can get eyeballs, so we hear a lot about how good players are going to be in new situations, but until you see it on the grass, it's not real.
Take Nate Davis for example. His film was great, and his measurables were too - but we heard rumors about his heart not being in it. Blog boys would tell you that the Bears OL was SET, but when we saw it on the grass last year, it was anything but.
We will know more about who we really have in August, and then changes come with the next trade window and cut days.For sure, on the wait-and-see. There are way too many offseason champions that never work out. I remember the Philly Dream Team that flamed out. That was pretty funny.
On Davis though. He had a ton of red flags, more so than any FA the Bears signed or traded for this year. I would say the biggest question mark is Dayo and that is just because his contract value.
Also, as much as every team has a goal for the Super Bowl, I think the Bears are at least one more year away from being perennial contenders. I think that is where the wait and see is for me. I know they will be improved, but I just don't know by how much.
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10 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
I think by our bye week we should start to get on a roll with a successful offense. There will be some good and bad moments in our first 4 games, but that is to be expected.
Yeah, and the first 4 games are somewhat favorable. MIN at home against McCarthy to open the season, then to DET (short travel), back home against DAL, then out to LVR. Opening Day MNF on the road for your first start is pretty tough, so I think the Bears have the edge there. With DET, I think that game becomes a toss up because of the coaching staff turnover on both sides, and the unknown health of Hutchinson. DAL has a new coaching staff with Flus as the DC, then the Raiders.
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On 7/3/2025 at 12:33 PM, AZ54 said:
I could not have asked the Bears to do more than what was done this offseason. If Caleb can't succeed with this supporting cast it's because Caleb can't succeed. I'm not expecting great things in Wk 1 because everyone is learning the offense. There should be a lot of positive drives in the first few games and consistency should be there by midseason.
Yeah, absolutely. The only thing that could stop Williams now is an injury. There is no way he could put up 3,500 passing yards in the shit show last year and some how not hit 4K doing the exact same thing. Everything around him improved, and in some areas, a lot. Coaching and O-Line upgrades are so big they are hard to quantify. That is in addition to still adding top end skill position players in Loveland and Burden.
Because of the skill position depth with little drop off, I could see the Bears really blowing teams out in the 4th quarter where their skill guys still have fresh legs and the DBs have been on the field the entire time.
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1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:
We are in the quiet period of Bears talk since most beat writers are taking vacations while coaches and players are doing the same before camp.
It is a good time to make your predictions on players who surprise or emerge in this new DA scheme.
Let your imagination out and lets hear who your player is and some reasons why.
DomRob. He is in a contract year, new DC and HC, improved DT rotation will draw attention away from him. He won't have a Pro Bowl year, but I can see him getting 5-6 sacks, which would be 2-3x his career total.
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3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
Here is some interesting stats: Consider two years unded Fields and one under a rookie QB.
Kmet has the 10th most yards of a TE the past 3 years and of those he has the 4th most TD's behind Kittle, Andrews and Kelce has 56 less trgts than Kittle, 29 less than Andrews and 192 less than Kelce
Kmet gets a lot of hate, but he did more with less than most TEs in the league.
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So I have seen media discussing the leap Goff took when he went from LA to DET. They have tried to project that same leap onto Williams this year. Now I can see using that as a starting point, but Williams is destined for a much bigger leap in my opinion.
The gap between McVay and Waldron/Brown is massive. The fact that Johnson got something more out of Goff than McVay did should speak to how good of a coach and play caller he is. This is also evident by the down year Goff had in between McVay and Johnson with Anthony Lynn as OC in 2021.
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Quote
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson singled out Hyppolite as the player that Bears coaches saw the most improvement from this spring. With veteran T.J. Edwards sidelined with a soft tissue injury, Hyppolite got a lot of run with the starting defense at a position he doesn't have much experience at (weakside linebacker) after playing middle linebacker throughout his career at Maryland.
While the search for Chicago's No. 3 linebacker isn't the sexiest of position battles, Hyppolite -- a fourth-rounder with a 4.39 second 40 time -- made early impressions on the coaching staff. "He's done a great job adjusting to that speed as we've gone through, and that's going to have to show up once we do get the pads on," Johnson said. "But I think he's been improving every single day, and really, we're hoping that course continues." -- Courtney Cronin
This is considered the biggest surprise for the Bears. I had to lol over it, as we are talking about LB3 on a defense that plays in a package with an LB3 less than 25% of the time. However, it actually highlights something else, that the Bears roster is pretty solid. Outside of Jones vs Trapilo, every starter and key backup is already set as far as I am tracking. Maybe you could make a case for CB2 and Stevenson vs Smith/Frazier?
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Nice to see Brisker out there, JJ looks faster. The hype train is full steam ahead.
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1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
lol - lets see what the Jets do after this year with him.
The idea that fields is GOOD at QB is like teeth that haven't come in yet because the baby teeth are still in LOLFields is such a weird case, he is one of 40 QBs in NFL history with 4K Passing yards and 2K Rushing yards (career totals). Of that group, he has the 2nd fewest passing yards (Bobby Douglass), and is below Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, and Daniel Jones.
His career arch is looking very similar to Marcus Mariota's (started as rookie, then jumped around on one year deals, now on 5th team). Fields is on his 3rd team.
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I just listened to a crossover Podcast (Bears/Vikings), and it is always interesting to hear the other side cope.
So this MIN guy basically said McCarthy is not a rookie QB because this is his 2nd training camp. So by definition, sure, but he was not talking about that. So he said the Darnold floor and Burrow ceiling for McCarthy is fair (from the recent article). LMAO, what?
He also said MIN has a top-5 OLine because they signed Will Fries (played 268 snaps last year) and Ryan Kelly. Yet when the Bears trade for Thuney, Jackson, and sign Dalman, the Bears will be lucky to have a top 20 unit? I need whatever he is smoking.
For me, I can't see MIN having another 14-win season. Not because they are worse, but because that is hard to do when you change QBs. Hell if they win 12, KOC should be CotY.
DET has a lot of question marks losing both Coordinators and the health of Hutchinson at game speed is unknown. 10-12 feels like their range without know how good Goff will be without Johnson.
GB is just GB, they definitely feel static and just added a rookie WR to meh WR corps, which doesn't move the needle for me because you are still dealing with Jordan Love.
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17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
Yeah, I dont know what we will be exactly, but last years win total makes a poor predictor or even starting point, i agree.
First of all, we should have had 8 wins if Eberflus hadnt given them away.
secondly the roster is very different and so is the coaching staff. So I agree that there is no reason to be anchored to last years number in any way.
But this is a NEW team, and we have to gel and see what we are. Gotta do it on the grass
So I totally agree with you. we are 0-0 with no reason to think anything concrete yet for better or worse!and it also goes the opposite way, MIN won 14 games last year, but were probably more like a 10-win team. So if they only win 9 or 10 games, it will feel like a huge disappointment.
I also think coaching/scheme changes are the biggest factors outside of a new QB on how much a team can change in one offseason. All the other positions have impact but it feels like those are orders of magnitude lower than QB and coaches. Like it is hard to name a good team with bad coaches. Most good teams have at least serviceable QBs, but on those good teams, there are bad CBs, LBs, WRs, RBs, TEs, OGs, etc.
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With the Bears finishing 5-12 last year makes it feel like a herculean effort to even get to a winning record at 9-8. However, turn arounds with much more wins are almost commonplace nowadays.
Last year alone, 3 of the top 9 teams in the NFL all had a win differential of +6 from the previous season:WAS 4-13 > 12-5 (+8)
MIN 7-10 > 14-3 (+7)
LAC 5-12 > 11-6 (+6)I feel like there is less correlation from year to year than ever before. In the season prior to winning 12 games, WAS lost their last 8 games, MIN finished 1-6 with their only win a 3-0 barnburner against LVR. LAC finished 1-8 and their only win was a 6-0 win against NE.
So as much as this feels like the Bears are building on a 5-win season. They really are starting over with all teams 0-0. Ben Johnson has led an offense that has been top 5 in scoring and top 4 in yards in all of the last 3 seasons. While Dennis Allen, as a DC, has coached a top 11 scoring unit in his last 3 seasons as a DC.
There were 7 teams to have a top 11 offense AND top 11 defense in 2024, they all made the playoffs, the worst team (DEN) had 10 wins, and their average win total for the group was 12.4.
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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:
11-6 is fair. I think there is a big variance because there are still a lot of unknowns with how the combination of things will work. We know Ben Johnson is a great play caller, and we can see how that impacts other teams with comparable play callers (Reid, McVay, Shanahan, LaFleur, etc). A good coach who is a great play caller almost gives every team a floor of 7 to 8 wins just by default.
I think the Bears basement is 7 to 8 wins. That is if nothing goes right. RB and Edge are issues, LT never gets resolved, and Caleb doesn't take the next step.I think the median is 9-11 wins, the more things go right, the more wins.
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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:
I have surgery on July 7th, so if I dont die , Im in for this year.
Good luck with surgery!
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GMs, I have renewed our annual TalkBears Fantasy Football Keeper league, which is now entering its 16th season.
We need at least one new GM for this upcoming season. There may be more openings if we don't get commitments in time for the draft.
Once we get the confirmations, we can schedule the draft for late August and I can send out the LeagueSafe payment dues ($75 per team).
The winning payouts are as follows:
1st - $440
2nd - $200
3rd - $75
4th - $35The payment deadline is usually Week 4, so people have some time to pay the dues. However, if payment is not received by then, that GM will be removed and the best recommended roster will be played for that team the rest of the season.
If you have any questions, let me know, we normally conduct the draft a few days prior to the kickoff game around 7pm Central.
I will send out a weekly reminder until the last week of July or until we have 10 commitments.
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51 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Pundits keep trying to find something to talk about. Replace Santos? A better offense will produce more points in extra points. Over 50 is touch and go but I think more offense will put us in less long attempt FGs. Not yet.
and I am sure Johnson will go more on 4th downs than the previous Bears coaches, maybe not to the level of Campbell, but I am sure he will go more than Flus/Waldron/Getsy ever did.
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2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
I agree with that but it seems every year one suprise team bounces that no one expected. ( as far as top 7)
I think CIN could be that type of suprise.
I was thinking JAX, new HC/Playcaller, bad division.
CIN has to play BAL and PIT 4 times a year. I think it will come down to their defense. They are going to score 20+ every game. -
1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:
I would swap SF and Texans. Also swap GB and Pitt. One more thing, I think we'll be better than GB and equal to the Queens.
I know I numbered them, but that was more for a count than a ranking.
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20 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:
I think we are over estimating the DE need for Dennis Allen's defenses. The most sacks a DE has had for his defense is 8.5. He had Cam Jordan 2022 and Carl Granderson 2023 rack up 8.5. Id bet if we polled how many sacks Montez Sweat gets, everyone picks more than 8.5.
I think it will have to be collective with the Dline to provide pressure and get to the QB. They brought in Jarrett who i can see being a comeback player of the year and Dayo who's improved year to year. If Booker doesn't take a step, a higher talent will probably be a priority in next draft to develop.
Yeah he didn't need elite production in sacks to have a top 10 defense:2023
Carl Granderson 8.5
Demario Davis 6.52022
Cameron Jordan 8.5
Kaden Elliss 7.0 -
What would be cool is if DA is content staying as one of the premier DCs (like Fangio) instead of trying HC again. Some people don't realize that NO was his 2nd stint as a HC. He was the Raiders HC from 2012-2014. Interestingly enough, he was fired in season both times and never finished his 3rd season with either team.
However, people may also not know how good he has been as a DC. From 2017-2023 between his time as a DC and HC, his defense was top 10 in scoring 5 out of 7 years and 13th and 14th the other 2 years, and 5 years out of 7 in the top 10 in Takeaways.
To put that into perspective, Fangio, in all his years as a DC and HC, never had a 7 year stretch where his defense finished in the top 14 in scoring defense or had 5 out of 7 years in the top 10 in Takeaways.
I honestly think a lot of people are underestimating how good this defense can be.
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1 hour ago, jason said:
Reason this out with me.
Poor guy has manual Kia. It drives well. Poor guy sells the Kia to a teenager.
Young kid doesn’t like driving manual. Barely drives it.
Does that mean the Kia doesn’t drive well?
The point is, I don’t know if the Bears can say they made a good move. The only thing certain is that Alshon made a bad one.
It's just another illustration on how bad the franchise has been in the passing game. He didn't really do much in Philly, but that would've been enough to make him the best WR in franchise history.
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Hopefully Stinger's surgery went well and he is recovering today. Ice up son, we got some Fantasy Football coming up.