adam
-
Posts
15,307 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Posts posted by adam
-
-
Odunze could've came out last year and would've been the #1 WR selected. The Bears luck out and he stays in school, and then ATL drafts a 36 year old QB the pick ahead of the Bears. Then to have Odunze catching passes from Williams with Allen and Moore BEFORE the draft is some Mandela Effect kind of stuff.
The Bears have never had this kind of luck before. I think the curse of Javon Wims is over.
-
7 hours ago, AZ54 said:
If they signed two vets and don’t know what they have in them then we have bigger problems with this organization.
Part of it comes down to the exchange. If you read articles from 2022, Williams had issues with shotgun snaps. So even though he is a plus blocker, if he has issues with snaps, it sort of negates some of the blocking advantages.
So what I meant was to see which Center Williams felt better with, in terms of snaps, and blocking assignments. You won't really know until you get into the OTAs.
-
5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
that made me happy
It's true 😁
-
3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
Josh Jacobs > Aaron Jones
First, I did have GBs RB group ahead of MINs. Second, Jacobs is going to a new offense and just came off a season where he averaged 3.5 YPC. Yuck. Jones knew that offense like the back of his hand and dominated in the playoffs last year. Very few backs post back to back 100-yard games in the playoffs with 3 TDs in 2 games.
In 2022, I would agree that Jacobs was better, but for their careers, or any other year, Jones has the edge. Just look up the numbers. Even with Jacobs monster year in 2022, he still averages 0.8 less yards per carry than Jones for his career. Almost 1 yard per carry is a lot. In 130 less carries, Jones has 400 more rushing yards and only one fewer rushing TDs. Then when you take receiving into account, it slants more towards Jones. Receiving TDs for their careers, Jones = 18, Jacobs = 0. Come on man, Zero. That is unheard-of. Even Khalil Herbert has 2 receiving TDs in his career.
Using AV for the last 5 seasons, Jones AV = 54, Jacobs AV = 44. Again one monster year in 2022, outside of that, Jacobs has been fairly average. If you had to put their seasons in order, Jacobs has the best season in 2022, but then Jones would have the next 4.
-
NFC North Skill Groups (1QB, 2RB, 2TE, 3WR):
CHI - Williams / Swift, Herbert / Kmet, Everett / Moore, Allen, Odunze
DET - Goff / Gibbs, Montgomery / LaPorta, Wright / St. Brown, Williams, Raymond
MIN - McCarthy / Jones, Chandler / Hockenson, Oliver / Jefferson, Addison, Powell
GB - Love / Jacobs, Lloyd / Musgrave, Kraft / Watson, Dobbs, Reed- Rookies in Red
- Meh players in BlueThe Bears have the best WR Corps, Everett is the best TE2 of the bunch, making the TE Room competitive with DET and MIN. DET has the best RB Room but CHI and GB are close behind. Adding Odunze really puts the Bears offense over the top. Roschon would be ahead of Chandler on MIN and he is not even listed.
Here is how I would rank them today, assuming projected potential from the rookies:
QB - CHI / GB / DET / MIN
RB - DET / CHI / GB / MIN
TE - MIN / DET / CHI / GB
WR - CHI / MIN / DET / GBUsing pts from 1-4 for each group, totals are as follows:
CHI - 13 pts
DET - 11 pts
MIN - 9 pts
GB - 7 ptsJust say you don't agree on the QBs, and you bump Williams to 3rd. That would give DET 12pts, CHI 11pts, and GB 8 pts. There is a clear gap from DET and CHI to GB and MIN. For defenses, CHI and MIN were the best, followed by DET, then GB. So I would not be surprised if GB struggles a lot more than people think this year (actual tape on Love). MIN will be contingent on McCarthy, just like the Bears will be on Williams. I just have a lot more faith in Williams. His track record is a lot longer than McCarthy's.
If you overlay these teams onto their projected schedules, it shows the following outcomes:
1. Bears 10.5 wins (7 win team +3.5 wins) - Bears already had success against DET last year, Williams adds 2 wins by himself
2. Lions 10.5 wins (12 win team -1.5 wins) - Normal regression with tougher schedule, relatively the same team
3. Vikings 8.5 wins (7 win team +1.5 wins) - Will be solely dependent on McCarthy, this team is the most volatile, could end 6-11 easily.
4. Packers 7.5 wins (9 win team -1.5 wins) - Has regression written all over it, Love was too lucky, loss of Jones will be visible.This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed.
One other note. Looking at Jordan Love's numbers, it is hard to see Williams not surpassing what Love did last year (4159 yds, 32 TDs) with this Bears group. Love had those numbers without a receiver that caught 70+ receptions or had over 800 yards. His receivers caught 64, 59, 39, 34, 31, 30, and 28 respectively. Last season, Allen caught 108, Moore 96, Kmet 73, Everett 51, Swift 39, and Herbert caught 20. That is 387 receptions WITHOUT Odunze. Love had 372 completions. Even if you take away 20% from all the Bears listed, then add 63 for Odunze (JSN had 63 last year with Waldron as rookie WR3), Williams would have 372 completions. How ironic.
-
An interesting tie in with the 2025 draft is Fields' play in 2024. Also, since PIT declined his 5th-year option, he will be a free agent in 2025. So technically, the Steelers could get back a comp pick for him in 2026 if he signs a big enough deal with another team, which could negate the pick they traded to the Bears in 2025 (a year later).
-
4 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Plus I think if you wait until after the draft the signing(s) don't count to the comp pick formula, so I presume there is a wave of free agency we will see take off once the comp impacts are gone. My guess is also the more time you can wait on Connor the better cause you have a better idea of his general health/recovery from the injury.
They can also wait to see what they have at Center with Shelton and Bates.
-
4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
That's cool in theory, but that's not how the math works. Bad teams improve at a greater rate because they are usually young, bitten with injuries and/or coach loses the team and is replaced. If those teams win three or four more, they still aren't good. Vegas builds billion dollar casino's and the have us at 8.5. I think we sneak in at nine wins.
OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching.
It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria:
HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023
DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022
CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018
Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams.
Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff.
The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective. -
We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year.
Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players.
So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins.
Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc).
https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks
Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.
-
1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:
In looking at the last game, what makes anyone think we'll have a top five defense? I see top half and but not top five.
The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs. In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.
-
26 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
yup. it's a deep plan and it keeps unfolding with permutations we (or at least I) couldnt see until we came up on them. Poles is a real pro.
Things are really lining up for 2025 perfectly. With 3 picks in the first two rounds, the Bears can insert 3x blue chippers and bump others down. I assume that will be all in the trenches, with at least one on each line. So 3 starters from this year will be gone or in backup roles.
-
With $3.1M cap savings and the drafting of Amegajie, Borom seems like the odd man out. Gaining over $3M in cap space would put the Bears back in the top 10 for cap space (currently 12th) which would allow them to bring in another DT and DE with room to spare.
Other roster casualties from my perspective are: Robinson, Gill, and possibly Homer and/or Velus. The last two will be ST dependent.
-
These seem like the most likely guys to make the 53-man roster:
Brenden Bates, TE (still need a TE3)
Keith Randolph, DT (still need another DT)
Jamree Kromah, DE (could replace Robinson who has been ineffective so far)
Theo Benedet, OL (would be a back end replacement for someone like Borom ($3.1M cap savings))
-
16 hours ago, AZ54 said:
Hmm... what do we have here? You've got the arm length and strength needed to set the edge. With a 1.6 10yd split on his forty he has a very quick first step which can be seen when he lines up at 3-tech. Watching these highlights he's got a little bend to him. Competition level is an obvious concern but there are highlights here where he is shedding a double team to make a tackle. 600lbs of whatever is still 600lbs. They used him across the front too which won't help his development at DE but does showcase his versatility. Very similar to DeMarcus Walker but quicker.
I am always surprised how some of these guys don't get drafted. 10 sacks on a top 25 team with a high RAS. What is not to like?
-
46 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:
Not to mention the coaching improvement.
Yeah Getsy to Waldron is a significant improvement as well, I forgot all about Getsy.
-
47 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:
top ten O and D
That would be insane. There were only 4 teams to have a top 10 offense and defense last year, they finished 1, 2, 4, 5 in overall DVOA. Their average W/L was 12-5. Two of them played in the SB, and 3 of 4 played in the Conference Finals. So there is heavy correlation between top 10 DVOA and overall outcomes.
BAL - 1 / 4 / 1
SF - 2 / 1 / 4
DAL - 4 / 9 / 5
KC - 5 / 8 / 7This is how the Bears finished, but the last 12 weeks they were a top 5 defense:
CHI - 22 / 22 / 17
-
The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick
to
Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton
in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible.
If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule.
-
+1 yard in Net punting = 7 pts. Gill was dead last. Just say Taylor add 2 yds onto that number. That equates to 14 pts on the season, which would've probably added 2 wins to the team last year.
Also, some are speculating that he could also be the kickoff guy if he can kick like he punts, pinning teams deep in their own zone.
So we will have to see how it plays out. If he is a top 5 punter for the next decade, great pick. If he is middle of the road or worse, probably a bad pick because most of the top 10 punters are UDFAs right now.
-
We actually did pretty good. Our consensus draft got 5 correct, and 8 of 10 of the picks in the top 10.
- Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, and Nabers (5/10 correct)
- Alt, Odunze and McCarthy in top 10 (8/10 in the top 10)
- Turner and Bowers not in top 10
- Latham and Penix in top 10
-
12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
Also the 6th round pick you have listed will end up a 4 th round pick. Justin will play more than 51% of the QB snaps. Payton got rid of Wilson at a big expense because he's a tool. Tomlin won't put up with crap from Wilson. Justin will start at least 14 games this year, clearly a better QB than Wilson at his age. IMO
I talked to a Seattle fan and said Wilson is a ego tripper and aleiniates his teammates. Tomlin gets rid of malcontents.
If Allen leaves after this year for a big contract don't we get a third for that?
They would be awesome if Fields plays that much, but Wilson is not terrible. He would have to have a few bad games in a row before they replace him.
-
21 hours ago, CrackerDog said:
Found this on the net. Correct me if anything is wrong.
BEARS 2025 DRAFT PICKS
First-round pick
Second-round pick
Second-round pick (via Panthers)
Third-round pick
4th gone for 2024 5th rounder
Fifth-round pick
Sixth-round pick
Sixth-round pick (via Dolphins)
Sixth-round pick (via Steelers, can turn into fourth-round pick)The 5th they got back was the one they used for Bates. So technically they now have traded a 2025 4th for Ryan Bates. With the potential of 3x 6ths, I can see them using one or two of them to move up in the 4th or 5th round (or to the back of the previous round).
-
1 hour ago, CrackerDog said:
Gotta like his confidence. Let’s hope he can back it up.
I just like the fact that Williams was reaching out to the other draft picks right after they were selected.
-
He had more punting yards then the Iowa offense had yards last year, lol. He has some unique technique to ensure coffin corner punts pop back to the coverage team and not roll into the end zone. He is top 10 in pretty much every punting category all-time for college football. He led the nation in 2023 in punts, punt yards, and was 3rd in Average.
-
I have read a few articles that said he is athletic enough to slide inside. So he could compete with Jones at LT or Davis at G. Since Jenkins can play both sides. They could slide Jenkins to RG and have Amegadjie play LG (if he is better on the left).
So now they have options.
Caleb Williams, QB, USC selected #1 overall
in Bearstalk
Posted
As long as Williams stays healthy, it's hard for me to see him doing any worse than what Geno Smith did last year, who averaged 241 yds per game, had 20 TDs and 9 INTs. That feels like the floor for Williams. Taking some other recent QBs into account, like Stroud and Love, this seems like Williams most likely ranges for various stats:
Completions: [LOW 310 | AVG 338 | HIGH 375]
Attempts: [LOW 490 | AVG 526 | HIGH 580]
Comp%: [ LOW 62.5% | AVG 64.3% | HIGH 65.2%]
Yards: [LOW 3620 | AVG 3964 | HIGH 4284]
TD: [LOW 20 | AVG 25 | HIGH 32]
INT: [LOW 5 | AVG 8 | HIGH 12]
So the most probable numbers would be 338-526, 64.3%, 3,964 yds, 25 TD, 8 INT
If Williams hit that number of passing yards, it would be the 6th best all-time for a rookie QB. 25 TDs would be 5th, only 8 INTs would be 5th best, and 64.3% would be 6th. So hit mean set of numbers put him between 5th and 6th all-time for a rookie. With the upgraded supporting cast, I think he exceeds those numbers in every category. I think he falls in between the average numbers and high numbers for al the stats.