adam
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Posts posted by adam
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What would be cool is if DA is content staying as one of the premier DCs (like Fangio) instead of trying HC again. Some people don't realize that NO was his 2nd stint as a HC. He was the Raiders HC from 2012-2014. Interestingly enough, he was fired in season both times and never finished his 3rd season with either team.
However, people may also not know how good he has been as a DC. From 2017-2023 between his time as a DC and HC, his defense was top 10 in scoring 5 out of 7 years and 13th and 14th the other 2 years, and 5 years out of 7 in the top 10 in Takeaways.
To put that into perspective, Fangio, in all his years as a DC and HC, never had a 7 year stretch where his defense finished in the top 14 in scoring defense or had 5 out of 7 years in the top 10 in Takeaways.
I honestly think a lot of people are underestimating how good this defense can be.
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1 hour ago, jason said:
Reason this out with me.
Poor guy has manual Kia. It drives well. Poor guy sells the Kia to a teenager.
Young kid doesn’t like driving manual. Barely drives it.
Does that mean the Kia doesn’t drive well?
The point is, I don’t know if the Bears can say they made a good move. The only thing certain is that Alshon made a bad one.
It's just another illustration on how bad the franchise has been in the passing game. He didn't really do much in Philly, but that would've been enough to make him the best WR in franchise history.
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Looking around the league, this year looks like it is going to be extremely competitive. I would say there are 20 competitive teams (w/ the Bears being one of them) that all have a shot at the playoffs. Then out of those 20, I would say 7 have a realistic shot at the Super Bowl.
1. PHI
2. KC
3. BAL
4. DET
5. BUF
6. LAR
7. LAC
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8. TB (lost OC to JAX, easier division)
9. HOU (Easy division but)
10. WAS (was last year a fluke?)
11. DEN (was last year a fluke?)
12. GB (No secondary)
13. CIN (will they have a defense?)
14. PIT (which Rodgers will show up?)
15. SEA (Darnold vs Geno)
16. SF (Purdy without Deebo)
17. DAL (Can Dak rebound?)
18. MIN (depends on McCarthy)
19. ATL (depends on Penix, easier division) -
1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
Yeah Flus sucks!
Something that's also lost in all this is that apparently it was Caleb's Dad who told the ESPN writer that Caleb told him that - thats a 3 man chain of telephone now. Who knows exactly what the nature of Caleb's complaint was?
One thing we can be sure of is that the Bears offensive staff SUCKED at preparing the team, so whatever it is that Caleb actually said to his dad, it was probably true.Yeah, JSN warned us during his CHGO interview. That was a red flag then and still is today for Waldron.
Now it seems like every position group is finally being coached right. I still find it wild that Eric Bieniemy is the RB Coach, Randle El the WR Coach, and Al Harris is the DB coach all the while having Dennis Allen as the DC and Ben Johnson as the HC/Play Caller. It doesn't feel real. We have been so beaten down by always getting the wrong HC, or a bad OC, etc, etc.
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1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:
If Burden gets playing time, it could make it hard to feed so many mouths. This is still my prediction, from April:
My total guess, assuming LT isnt a total disaster, and Caleb isnt running for his life:
Caleb Williams 4,050 yards passing
DJ Moore 800 yds receiving
Rome Odunze 1,050 yds receiving
Luther Burden 600 yds receiving
Colston Loveland 750 yds receiving
Cole Kmet 350 yds receiving
HBs 500 yds receivingGoff had 3,700 passing yards to WRs and TEs, and his group was St. Brown, Williams, LaPorta, Patrick, Raymond, and Wright, so your 3,550 to WR/TEs checks out.
I was a little extra optimistic and had him throwing for 4K to WR/TEs and about 450 to everyone else. My thinking was the top 6 pass catchers are so good, that there is almost no point to target anyone else. However, I am probably downplaying a guy like Zaccheaus, who has had 500 receiving yards in 2 out of the last 3 seasons. So that would also contribute into that 4K to WR/TEs.
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I have seen some updated projections with Moore and Odunze both hitting 1K receiving yards. I think this has a great shot at happening.
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Flus went on a Podcast recently and answered some questions related to this story. People seem to be crossing streams. Caleb never said he wasn't coach, or that they never watched film together.
I still think this is a non-story that the media tried to make a thing in support of the book coming out.
However, Cowherd did have a good nugget of info that I forgot about, that Flus was 0-18 on the road on Sundays as a HC. I double checked and he is correct. Flus had a win on MNF in 22 as his only road win, then doubled that to 2 road wins in 2023, but one was on TNF and the other MNF. Then he had zero road wins last year, and the Bears actually got a Sunday road win in Week 18 in GB, but Flus was long gone when that happened lol.
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21 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
I find it odd that Houston was tied with us for last. With our new additions to the OL and weapons, we should be in the middle on the low side of expectations. Of course the key to all of this is Caleb. I think he goes off but some doubters think he still has a lot to prove being only the 3rd best rookie QB. As the bad coaching and poor OL affected both the passing game and running game, I expect huge jump for him.
Stroud and the Texans underwhelmed last year. They were 10-7 in the worst division in football. Outside of the division, they were 5-6. They relied solely on their defense to win games.
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17 hours ago, AZ54 said:
46 is an insane number. Assuming that was just regular season that’s 2.7 long drives per game without a running QB to rescue bad plays.
Yeah, it's one thing to have a 70-yd scoring drive, but TDs, that's wild, and like you said, without a mobile QB.
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14 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
One thing I gleaned, from the Bagent interview, was this quote when asked about the new process,"if I ever decide to get into coaching, that's how I want to do it".
12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:I think all signs are pointing to Ben Johnson becoming one of the top head coaches in the league. In a sense, being head coach is "pads on" all the time, so we've already gotten a glimpse of him in action.
But yeah, from everything I've seen so far, it sure looks like he is gonna be great for us.Bagent also said Johnson would be the best position coach for every position. He was also spot on about Flus, he said he was a great defensive coach but didn't do much with the offense or specific position groups.
For me, I am truly optimistic for the first time since 2018. That was the last time things felt like they were coming together from all sides, and then that went into high gear with the Mack trade.
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Here is more on the Ben Johnson effect, 70+ Yard TD drives, DET had 46, CHI had 17, literally 1st and last. Even if the Bears just jump to the middle of the pack, that would be almost double from last year.
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Great Bagent interview, you can tell this year really is "different". I know the rinse and repeat history makes most of us into the ultimate pessimists because we have lived through "this year is different" 30+ times, but these interviews really do paint a different picture:
Besides the normal stuff we have heard before, I did like that Bagent specifically pointed out that DomRob has been visible. He said he just had a baby, so he thinks it is dad strength or something because no one wants to block him.
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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:
He's a good QB but nothing special.
Over the last 2 seasons (his only starting ones) he comps strongly between Geno Smith and Tua. Basically, if Geno and Tua had a baby, it would be Jordan Love.
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43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
hmmmm. I was just speaking anecdotally. these results are not in line with what I thought.
as always, thanks for the stats, adam!I don't mind the new kickoff format, I just don't like being penalized for a touchback. I could see if you kick it out of the end zone, then sure, penalize the kicking team for preventing a kick return, but giving the receiving the team 35 yards for catching the ball in the end zone seems crazy to me. The 30 already felt far to me, the 35 is going to be wild.
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22 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
It's time for the packs winning streak to come to an end. They dont have Favre or Rodgers. Theyre just another team now.
we are 12 games under .500 with the Pack all time. Let's start getting that back to even at least.against the NFC North/Central:
Love 8-10
Rodgers 59-25-1
Favre 82-44I just love how Packers fan put Love on some pedestal like he is anywhere close to Favre or Rodgers. Love is a .500 QB (literally 21-21) and has a losing record against the North. He is also 8-14 on the road but somehow a top franchise QB. That does not compute.
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They did make a change to the touchbacks for 2025 though, they will now be placed at the 35 (previously the 30, and originally the 20). To me, the 35 seems a little excessive.
Here are some notes from a recent article:
The average field position after all kickoffs in 2024 was the 30-yard line. After a return, the average starting position was the 29-yard line.Seven touchdowns were scored off a kickoff return last year, the most since 2021. There were 59 "big play" returns, which the NFL defines as 40-plus yards, the most since 2016.
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17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
As Luther Burden said on his twitter when he heard this...
"Uh Oh"
Burden would've been matched up against CB3, now CB4. Across the board, teams are going to be able to throw against GB like they did when Alexander was out.
6-1 with Alexander (only loss to PHI)
5-5 without AlexanderIt looks like GB is going to be more like an 8 to 9 win team this year at best.
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GB just released Alexander. He was their CB1, even if he missed some time with injuries, that is a huge hole to fill post June 1.
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3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
When Nagy came here he was made out to be an offensive mind, coming from a winning program and changed the culture to a more positive outlook. He went 12-4 and was coach of the year. The truth was we were winning due to defense and led the league in TOs. The next 3 yrs Pace gave away 2 first round picks, a second and drafted Justin Fields. He screwed up our ability to add talent for a team that had a lot of old players and Tribusky as their QB. Pace failed our team and Nagy had to rely on offense that wasnt very good when Fangio left.
BJ comes with more fan fare than Nagy had and Poles actually has built a good roster. We have much excitement because we have a potential top rate QB. If you watch the tape on Caleb last year , he has a lot to learn. I think we have the right combination of talent and coaching to succeed this time but that still has to show up on the field. Of course I think it all ends well, but I understand anyone that is still skeptical.
The biggest unknown was Nagy was never a play caller, or when he was, didn't do it very well. That was always the knock on him coming from KC. So if you have an offensive coach who isn't a great playcaller, what do you really have? Nagy had to figure out how to be a Play Caller while trying to figure out how to be a HC at the same time and it eventually got exposed. Fangio's defense masked it for a year, but then, like you said Stinger, Pace's draft picks and roster construction finally came back to bite him.
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1 hour ago, AZ54 said:
I am surprised how things leveled out in the red zone. Those are only passing TD correct?
Yes, those are passing numbers. For rushing:
Daniels had 37 RZ Rushes and 6 TDs
Nix had 17 and 3 TDs
So both Nix had 25 total TDs and 1 INT
Williams had 10 and 0 TDs (this really hurt Caleb's advanced stats)
Maye had 5 rushes and 2 TDsFrom the 20-49:
Williams had 7 TD - 3 INT
Maye 6 - 1
Nix had 5 - 5
Daniels 4 - 3Surprised to see that Maye was the best in that part of the field.
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I think it is wild that Williams took the fewest sacks in the RZ, and had the fewest INTs (that is less surprising). Nix and Daniels both benefitted from a high powered offense so their TDs numbers were gonna be higher.
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14 hours ago, AZ54 said:
Your the best stats man here: Which rookie QB had the best passing numbers in the redzone? Not a presumptive question as I don't know the answer.
Bo Nix had a 22 TD - 1 INT ratio, 109.4 QB Rating in the RZ with 3 sacks.
Daniels had a 19 TD - 1 INT with a 104.8 QB Rating with 4 sacks.
Williams was 13-0, with a 96.8 QB Rating with 2 sacks.
Maye was 9-2, with a 76.5 QB Rating with 6 sacks.
No other rookie QBs qualified.
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52 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random.
Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context.
If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw.
An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account.
Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team.
Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome.
When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing.
I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field.
It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?I agree. It is more of a novelty and should not be used as your sole source.
Caleb Story...
in Bearstalk
Posted
Yeah he didn't need elite production in sacks to have a top 10 defense:
2023
Carl Granderson 8.5
Demario Davis 6.5
2022
Cameron Jordan 8.5
Kaden Elliss 7.0