adam
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Posts posted by adam
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2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
I've been traveling so dont know if someone mentioned it but Poles was getting nervous with Rome getting picked was going to try to move up to get him. Ian told him to be patient and we got him. He clearly liked Rome because of his character. Poles envisions Caleb and Rome leading the offense and Brisker and Sweat leading the defense with their leadership and work ethic. We have several other leaders on this team that could make this a special team.
Yeah, this is going to be a fun offseason of OTAs and minicamps. I am sure they will be at max capacity every day it is open to the public just to see Tory Taylor live.
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46 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
I totally agree. I'm sure to your point that these guys get more data points than they need. On one hand you might uncover hidden problems, but on the other hand you may become overwhelmed with data and get swayed by something that isnt going to have any real impact.
Im sure all the scouts are very close to all the small details, and Poles has to have the large view and put it all into context. he seems to have made a lot of wise moves, and it looks like it's starting to pay off too!Also, the character and personality part is hard to determine just by watching tape. So the "personal" scouting piece seems to be equally important.
Looking at all the draft picks, all of them love football, are great teammates, and work hard at their craft. Williams is always doing something. You see Odunze doing the 3-cone drill over and over long after everyone left. Booker is at the Senior Bowl working on stuff on the sidelines long after others have left. That dedication is infectious.
Kiran is on another level growing up and still being a Bears fan. His tweets are hilarious. He seems like a guy that will do whatever he can to help this franchise win.
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10 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
finding those hidden gems is definitely a place where your scouting shines, where they can really help the team.
and while youre right that Odunze is a no brainer pick, youd want to be sure from your scouting that for example Dallas Turner isn't the next NFL sack leader, or Fashanu isn't about to set the league on fire too.
I agree that even with my layman eyes I could see the difference, but even sure things go through a ton of vetting because that bust percentage is so high.
But I feel really good about all these guys too, and some of the unsigned rookie free agents are intriguing as well.Sometimes it's the no-brainers that are the best moves too. Don't overthink it. Don't try to be the smartest guy in the room (Trubisky over Watson), Shaheen in the 2nd.
The UDFAs are a huge part of the scouting process too like you said, and I have liked what they have tried to do there as well.
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1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:
His release is right up there with the greatest I've ever seen. Polar opposite of Justin in every aspect. He's fiery and plays with a sense of urgency in which I had a problem with Justin.
It is night and day. Williams is a natural thrower. Fields always felt like a super athlete trying to play QB. It is not natural for him. Now entering his 4th season in the NFL, he still is somewhat robotic. That doesn't even account for the actual delayed release which gets worse with the hitch.
Watching a lot of Williams tape, when he makes the decision to throw the ball, it is on the target almost immediately, regardless of his body position/angle, etc. It is pretty impressive to watch. However, most of the time, he is just dropping back and throwing the ball in rhythm.
For a baseball analogy, Williams is a guy that is a technician, 5-6 different pitches, with all kinds of variations and arm angles. Fields is the flamethrower that has two pitches a fastball and curve. It is either feast or famine with him.
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The whole narrative about a decline in Williams' performance in 2023 is way overblown. He only threw 5 INTs all season and 3 came in one game (against ND). So outside of that game his INT% was 0.57% which is actually insanely low. He had a 1.0% INT in 2022. For the season in 2023, his INT% was 1.3%, which is still elite.
So did he force 5 balls trying to make a play, yes he did, but if that is the worst, I will take it every day and twice on Sunday.
Also, his raw numbers were slightly down from his Heisman season, but there were two factors, one he played in two fewer games, and two, the team around him was far inferior to the team in 2022. The crazy thing is, even though he had less opportunities, he made the most of them with a better Comp% 68.6% and Y/A at 9.4, both career highs.
He also rushed for 11 TDs in 2023 which gets overlooked because he wasn't a running QB like Daniels.
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4 hours ago, dawhizz said:
Good comments here from Poles and scouts on the draft picks. Poles has also been on some podcasts this week, including Pat McAfee and Waddle & Silvy.
The title is funny "Scouting Staff praise their own decisions"
I would hope the scouts are happy with the picks that they recommended to the leadership.
Also, with Williams and Odunze no brainers, there were really only 3 picks that took any type of "scouting" and technically Taylor being the best punter in the nation didn't take a lot of effort to figure out. So it really came down to Kiran and Booker.
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3 hours ago, Pixote said:
I was looking at available EDGE players and noticed Emmanuel Ogbah. His stats are actually impressive, especially when you consider, from what I read, Miami switched defensive schemes two years ago causing his production to drop. At 30 years of age, 8 years of experience, 6'4". 275#, 35 1/2" arms, and 10" hands, he sure fits the part physically. I bet he'd sign cheap and would be a good upgrade opposite M Sweat. (assuming our scheme fits his strengths).
Ogbah would be a nice vet addition.
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1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:
Last year the top 4 offenses had over 4000 passing and over 2200 yards rushing. We had 2399 rushing and 3421 passing. Caleb and our WRs will make up 600 passing yards.
Anyone think that is unrealistic?
We will have more offensive plays this year because of a more successful offense. I think Waldron runs a balanced offense theory . In 2022, 573 passing plays and 425 rushing plays. 4282 passing yards and 2042 rushubg yards.
In 2023 passing 575 4167 and rushing 382 1580.
They finished 9-8 both seasons. We have more talent than the Seahawks had, it is a no brainer that we win more games.
I hate being overly optimistic, but man it is hard to see anything less than 4,200 passing yards.
This is 4,400: Moore - 1,000, Allen - 900, Odunze - 700, Kmet - 600, Everett - 400, Swift - 300, Scott - 200, All Others - 300 (Herbert and Roschon had over 300 last year).
That is also 364 fewer yards for Moore, 343 fewer for Allen, 119 fewer for Kmet, and then normal projections for the others. No crazy numbers and no career highs.
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6 hours ago, dawhizz said:
I do think that we need to prepare for the possibility that two things may be true next year:
1) Caleb Williams has the best statistical season for a Bears QB ever.
2) Caleb Williams has the third best statistical season for a QB in the division.
Keep in mind the years Jared Goff and Jordan Love had last year would both, unquestionably, be the best Bears QB season ever. We can certainly hope for some regression, but can’t expect it to happen.
There are a whole bunch of outcomes for this season. Our fanbase is so tainted towards bad QB play that even mentioned 4K passing yards seems like a joke. However, there are probably better odds that Williams hits 4K than throwing for less than 3500 (unless injury related).
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6 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:
The very early Walter mock draft had the Bears selecting 3 DL. 2 DE/edge and a 3T. The depth on the top 50 seem to favor our need next year and noticed a lot of size so there is no finding guys that need to add 15#.
They said the draft is defensive heavy next year, which would play right into the Bears hands. Get Offense this year, defense next year, and cook for ages.
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7 hours ago, Pixote said:
We need to address the DL before the season starts.
Poles has done a remarkable job revamping our roster.
However, the D is still missing the pass rush. We were, if I am not mistaken, last in the league in sacks last year, even after bringing on Sweat. We have a fantastic LB & DB group behind the DL, but they need to have the DL put pressure on the opposing QB. There are too many damn good QBs who will pick us apart if we cannot put more pressure on their QB.
Hopefully, Poles can fill in the gap until we can add some blue-chip players in next year's draft.
If he does, I agree 100 with everyone; 11-12 wins is a realistic goal.
On a side note, If I'm not mistaken, the only players Ryan Pace drafted who are still on the Bears are:
Larry Borom (pick No. 151, 2021 NFL draft) (I suspect will be gone before the season starts)
Khalil Herbert (pick No. 217, 2021 NFL draft) (Now no longer a starter but a valuable backup)
Teven Jenkins (pick No. 39, 2021 NFL draft) (A+ Pick when not on the sidelines because of injury)
Jaylon Johnson (pick No. 50, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)
Cole Kmet (pick No. 43, 2020 NFL draft) (A+ Pick)Talk about a GM taking on a monumental task! Poles is doing an awesome job.
Now, he just needs to finish the job. 3T, Edge, Center.
My assumption is they bring in a vet for DT and Edge to fill out the rotation for this season, then in the 2025 draft, get a 3T, Edge, and IOL in the first two rounds and a rookie Center by the 4th.
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With 3 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2025, I feel like they get a Blue Chip Edge, DT, and G while still improving other spots via free agency.
I also think there is still a few moves left to be made, and don't be surprised if the Bears are buyers at the trade deadline this year.
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12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
yeah, maybe I'm drunk on blue and orange kool aid, but that's how it looks to me too. THis offense just has too many weapons, Caleb just has to operate it, and I think he will do more than that.
I also go back to looking at what other teams' fans and outside media has been saying. Once they got Allen and Odunze, now I see them 2 and Moore on best WR trio graphics. I also see Williams, Swift, Moore, Allen, Odunze, Kmet on best offense graphics. The Bears having a top 10 defense is already a thing as they played like a top 5 unit the last 2 months of the season.
To me, the only issue is going to be there will be too many guys open. Williams is going to have to decide on which open receiver he wants to throw to.
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12 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
I'm calling 12-5, come back in December to criticize me but it's a future prediction.
It really feels like 11-12 wins with 5-6 losses is absolutely realistic, which is hard to fathom as a Bears fan.
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2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
true. i guess the flip side is that Indy probably felt like they had no running game, so they threw a lot?
I have no problem thinking that Williams might match the per pass numbers that Luck put up, but I wonder if he will have as many attempts?
I think the Bears offense will be a balanced attack, which will be great for taking all the load off of Williams' shoulders, while being a total nightmare for defenses. We've talked a lot about the problems our receiver group will present to defenses, and whether Caleb can execute enough to make that talent shine, but we havent spoken much about our new running back and how much worse it's gonna be when we have a good ground game while simultaneously putting all those WRs out there.
The big winner in the Williams / Odunze draft is going to be our HB Swift.
I think our new motto should be "Who needs Taylor, when we've got D'Andre?" LOLI see what you did there.
Also remember Caleb has never had a supporting cast like this in his life. I know the competition will be the toughest he has ever seen, but I think the supporting cast outweighs the difference.
What team actually concerns you from the schedule with Caleb at QB? Division games are always different, so here are the non-Division games:
HOME
Los Angeles Rams - without Donald, this is a completely different team/defense
Seattle Seahawks - with new coaching staff, this team is a big question mark
Jacksonville Jaguars - they never took off as many expected them to, Lawrence going into his 4th season and is good but not great
Tennessee Titans - No QB and no Henry, enjoy 4-6 wins annually
Carolina Panthers - They might win 3-4 games this year
New England Patriots - This team was terrible and now with Maye who is still learning, Year 1 of their rebuild
AWAY
Arizona Cardinals - Even after adding MHJ, this is still a bad team that feels like they are in the middle of rebuild but still have an expensive QB they don't want
San Francisco 49ers - They are running out of time with overpriced vets, now with a year of tape on Purdy. Still the team to beat in the NFC, but not scary.
Houston Texans - This may be the game of the year and a future Super Bowl matchup in the making. I like both teams, but teams now have tape on Stroud. He seemed to sneak up on teams who were not prepared.
Indianapolis Colts - This always feels like a slightly above average team, but without a QB
Washington Commanders - This team reminds me of NE for the NFC. How many hits can Daniels take? Every hit is like the Johnny Knox injurySo out of those 11 teams/games, SF and HOU are the only real challenges and mainly because they are good teams on the road. Outside of those two games, every other game should be considered winnable where the line favors the Bears or it is within a FG as the underdog. Against HOU and SF, the line will probably be +6 or 7.
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2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
I dunno how closely past stats predict future outcomes, especially with so much noise in the system, but I still loved your bold font! And youre right, the stats dont take into account whether Williams will be more than an average QB as defined in those stats.
Im cautious about expecting perfection, but his floor is awfully high too. He is more NFL ready than most ever are coming into the league, so hes already probably the 15th best QB in the league right now without even having learned a thing in training camp yet. And by learning I dont mean like "oh thats what cover 3 is" but more just the average speed and level of talent in the league, and what is exploitable and what isnt.
One really good thing for Caleb is that he is going to face our secondary in practice a lot, and thankfully they are a good test. Especially if he starts picking them apart and they get better as a result too.
Everything in football is a multiplier, the ultimate team game. If just one piece is a 0, then everything is a 0. But when your roster is good, then the players elevate each other by having to play against them all week.
I've heard that the 1985 Bears offense found gameday to be the easiest day of the week for them. Games were easier than playing against their own defense during the week.Yeah, and from listening to Jaylon, the defense and secondary can't wait for the challenge, which will also make them better. Iron sharps iron is a real thing.
You're correct, it's exponential for sure, and the QB is the biggest exponentialator! As good as Fields was with his deep ball or escaping sure sacks, everything else was lackluster, which really neutered the offense. If those areas are just average, and Williams can just stay on time, these WRs are going to eat. Odunze is drawing CB3 every game. Just go look up the Bears opponents and find their CB3's PFF Grade. Basically, it is going to be Odunze against Kindle Vildor every week. It is going to be comical.
To compensate, teams will have to have a light box, so get ready for Swift, Herbert, and Roschon to cook on the ground.
If the offense can score, then the defense will be playing against a more predictable opponent offense, which will make the defense better.
Then if we actually have a real punter who can pin opponents inside the 20 consistently, I can't see how this is not a top 10 team in the NFL, and that is being somewhat "safe".
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2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
I know what you are relaying and it's a decent theory. However, I was a validation specialist for many years at a pharma company, so I'm very picky with stats. It is a cool stat.
Oh cool, I didn't know that. Yeah, they are obviously historical averages, and mean nothing, but over time, on average, teams fall into those buckets. So if we just apply the same historical data to the NFC North, that is what it looks like. It does not take into account for those external things, but it also doesn't take into account Williams playing at a high level, which if that happens, this team is going to be really hard to beat.
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2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
truth! and this season is just the warm up band. The 2025 season we should be bona fide super bowl contenders.
With this roster we can climb the mountain to become a top 5 team, and even get to the super bowl. The real test will be what it takes to overcome and defeat Kansas City. It might take a minute, like the Bulls getting past the Pistons.
I could imagine losing a super bowl to KC before going on a run of multiple championships.Kelce has two more years, they will probably go all in for the next two, then do a soft reboot. The first step is the Division, then beating SF.
My hope was win the division this year, then beat SF next year, then Super Bowl wins from 2026-2034.
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2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Vegas has him at like 3600 yard's or something as his over under. I also think if you are saying those are the high probability yet those are 6th best all-time that probably says that isn't "High Probability". Do I think he is capable, certainly, I also think there is a large number of really talented #1 overall picks who had their fair share of struggles in their first year, as that adjustment takes time.
It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable.
Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT
Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355
Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781
TY Hilton (23) - 50-861Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521
Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152
Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league.
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On 4/28/2024 at 11:33 AM, BearFan PHX said:
he has off the chart leadership qualities for sure.
I think he will bring the leadership fire I wanted from Harbaugh to offset Eberflus' steadier demeanor. And that works well too. On some teams the QB is the "bad cop" leader with the insatiable desire to win. Surely Brady yelled at players and coaches in his single minded efforts to win at all costs.Seeing what Shedeur Sanders is doing, I really can't believe all the BS that came out about Williams before the draft. Most of it was bogus and media generated. I am glad Poles didn't waver. Also, remember all the talk about Carl Williams. Have you seen even a single quote or interview with him this offseason? Compare that to Lavar Ball. Again, another nothing burger.
This kid is legit and the real deal. Will he have bad games, sure, rookie issues, absolutely, but he is still going to be really good, if not great. No one cared when the Bears drafted Trubisky, actually, we were ridiculed from day 1. Not many people cared about Fields being the 4th QB taken, and outside of his houdini acts, he was never a big threat in the passing game. However, this time, it is different, other team's fanbases are in full denial/cope mode, and I am here for it.
This is going to be a fun and magical season, I can't wait for Week 1.
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26 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
It's actually not, but WE can will it into existence...💪
Those are not my numbers, that is what OTC came up with after reviewing previous season outcomes based on last year's records and the follow year's draft picks. It may not occur because of external factors (injuries, weather, COVID-24, etc), but those numbers are factual based on the information provided.
Caleb Williams, QB, USC selected #1 overall
in Bearstalk
Posted
I try my best to separate everything. No player is perfect, and they each have their own strengths and weaknesses. Caleb does hold onto the ball longer than other QBs, Caleb does try to play hero ball more than others, and he doesn't take the checkdown sometimes and tries to make a higher danger throw. The good thing is, those are correctable and we are not in Year 4 with the same issues.
The thing about this year is, compared to Fields rookie year when there were zero expectations, Williams better put up some numbers because he is in one of the best situations a QB has ever been in. This also may be the best situation he is ever in because if they lose Allen after this season, they may not replace him with someone as good as him. If they let Jenkins go, a rookie or replacement may not be as good as him. So as much as we can give Williams a pass on some things because he is a rookie, he is not going to get a lot of forgiveness given the situation he is currently in.
We also should expect Williams to get better, which is the exciting part for me. If he is good as a rookie but improves, we really do have our franchise QB and all long-time Bears fans can finally sit back and enjoy the ride.
I will do my best to not even mention Fields anymore because it does matter what he did or does, same as Trubisky.