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Everything posted by adam
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Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
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Now 3 picks in the next 33 picks to end the 4th/start the 5th. They can scoop up a C, TE, WR or Edge in that range.
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Roschon Johnson, RB, I love it. He runs violent. Great change of pace from Herbert and Foreman.
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Edge is obviously the biggest need now but outside of that and Center, Poles filled the roster in pretty well. Maybe WR or TE?
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PFN's drafts are so crazy. I got Will Anderson at 9. Super unrealistic. So are the trade offers.
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The more I think about the trade down worries me a little bit. On one hand people say that we need to build with top talent, and when you are this high you have to take one. Then on the other hand, it's like, it's ok, trade down from 9 into the late first round so we can get a high second rounder (who won't be elite talent). I get that if you on your highly rated guys falls and you can get him later, great, but that is the only scenario I see that makes sense. I feel like once you get to the mid-3rd round, almost every guy is replaceable by a guy on a vet minimum deal unless you get lucky.
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Based on everything I have read so far. I feel like the following is going to happen: Only 3 QBs will go in the top 8, which might give the Bears potential to trade down. Either Levis or Richardson could be available at #9. For defenders, Anderson and Wilson both will be gone before 9. I think Carter goes in the top 8. Seattle or Detroit. That leaves 2 other players selected before the Bears pick, if 4 QBs do go, then it is only 1 other player before the Bears pick. The top players remaining are: Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Johnson Jr, Skoronski, Jones, Robinson, JSN, and Van Ness. With those players listed, the Bears could drop all the way to #13 or #14 (depending on QB's selected) and still get one of them. Prediction: trade down, if no partners, draft Johnson Jr, if he is gone, they go Van Ness.
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With sub packages basically becoming primary packages, you need players that can move around in a pinch, sometimes without substitutions. So guys like Green and Walker are sneaky good signings as they can play 5T and DE, and maybe even some 3T if needed.
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In the last 10 years, there have been only 6 WRs to eclipse 1600 receiving yards in a season from a Power-5 conference: Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 1606 yds J'Mare Chase - 1780 yds DeVonta Smith - 1856 yds Amari Cooper - 1727 yds Brandon Cooks - 1730 yds Davante Adams - 1719 yds That is a pretty solid group of NFL WRs with a combined 19 seasons with 1K receiving yards and several 900 yds seasons.
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Cole and Green fill some holes, bumping guys down the roster. Biggest needs now look like OT, CB, and DL (DE or DT depending on where Green slots in).
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Add Rasheem Green to the mix on the DLine. Andrew Billings, Rasheem Green, and DeMarcus Walker are upgrades over Muhammad, Blackson, Pennel.
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Decent production for 568 defensive snaps: 3.5 sacks, 20 QB Pressures, and 5 TFL. He played the Bears in 2022, had 0.5 sacks, 7 total tackles, and 2 QB Hits against Fields. This seems like a upgraded rotational piece over the likes of Muhammad/Blackson.
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I don't know why, but I am worried about Poles. His top 3 picks were Gordon, Brisker, and Velus last year. Gordon was his first pick. Pretty much any mock draft or big board did better with those 3 picks. His only saving grace was getting Braxton Jones in the 5th. Now, because of the Claypool trade, he has 44 picks after the 9th pick before he picks again, so a ton of elite talent is going to be gone before his 2nd pick (unless he trades down). If Paris is there at 9, I assume he is selected. If Paris and JSN are gone, I could see him moving down (if there is a team looking to move up).
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for positional value, it is more than likely a 2nd rounder, probably within the top 50.
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Carter would be a huge risk. That just doesn't seem like the type of character guys they are bringing in.
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One of the amusing things to do sometimes is to see what some other teams have added this offseason so far. The Packers have added a Long Snapper and backup Safety/Special Teamer. That's it. However, they lost Lowry and Reed from the DL, and Lazard and Tonyan on offense, while Amos, Cobb, Crosby, and Lewis (TE) are all still UFAs, AND they still have the Rodgers thing hanging over their heads. Rodgers is $31M against the cap now, and a trade would bump it up to $40M in dead money, which would leave them about $8M in cap space for any free agents, resignings, and in-season operating money (to sign players mid-season). They were an 8-win team with Rodgers, so with Love and a lesser team? Maybe 6 wins?
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Yeah, I think it will be Wilson (if he is there, but highly doubtful), Johnson Jr, Jones, or Van Ness. Nolan Smith wouldn't shock me either. If all 4 of these guys are still on the board at 9, I would love a trade down to 11 or 12, net an early 3rd rounder and still get one of those 4 would be epic masterclass by Poles. Then you would be looking at 5 picks in the top 75 and 6 within the top 103. The wild cards are going to be the top 2 CBs. If one of them is there at 9. For me, that would be a tough sell after going DB, DB in the first two picks last year. The D-Line is BAD right now, and based off some articles, Walker is more of a 3T than a DE, so Edge is bare right now. Going off last year's opening day roster, the biggest weaknesses on the team are at RT (Borom), DE (Gipson), DE (Robinson), CB (Vildor), and DT(Jones). Individually, which player is the worst of the bunch? I almost have to say Vildor, no? Going off PFF grades, Borom is the best, followed by Vildor. Gipson, Robinson, and Jones were terrible (in the 40s for PFF grades.
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He releases his full list "The Beast" in the next week or so, but here is his top 100: https://theathletic.com/4307966/2023/03/29/nfl-draft-2023-prospect-rankings-board/ I really like his assessments. If you have access, each player has a write up. His top 10 is: Anderson, Young, Carter, Gonzalez, Stroud, Skoronski, Robinson, Wilson, Witherspoon, and Van Ness. Obviously that won't be the draft, order, so the Bears will have an opportunity to get one of those guys at #9 (or someone outside of the top 10). In his top 50, there are 10 Edge, 7 WR, 7 CB, 5 OT, 4 TE, 4 QB, 4 DT, 3 OG, 2 LB, 2 RB, 1 OC, 1 S So the Bears can easily get a top 50 player in 4 different positions. The way the numbers look, I think they will wait on Edge until the 2nd or 3rd round. Same with WR and CB. So they will probably go OT or DT with #9, then with the next 3 go: Edge, CB, (DT/OT), or WR.
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I like his vids, he is just super optimistic. I have no issues with that though.
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That is a good point, and this will all come down to how they see Jones.
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Yes, my list is at least 2 of the defenders listed and one of the OL. Get 3 of those guys and I will feel a million times better heading into the draft. Ya-Sin, CB Clark, Edge Ngakoue, Edge Robinson, IDL Ioannidis, IDL Ford, IDL Wynn, RT Fleming, RT McGovern, C Risner, G
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So if you count Walker as a starting DE, then wouldn't the other DE be a gap? There are actual holes at DE, DT, CB, and RT.
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I am just saying Walker, Billings, Jones, Gipson is the worst DLine in the league. Not one of those guys is a starter on pretty much any other team. Those are all good rotational guys, but none are starters. Walker is probably the closest, so we still need 3 starters.
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I was assuming one of the 2nd rounders, or the 3rd rounder could be used on a starting CB. My hope is OL, DL, Edge, CB are addressed in the first 4 picks (in any order). I could also see them doubling up at DT or OL (with OT and C) which would be ok too.