adam

One problem, like an MSRP, is the anchor point. Fields new norm is 2500 yds passing and anything wildly over that number is seen as too unrealistic. 226 yds per game passing for 17 games would be a Bears franchise record. Fields had 7.1 yds per attempt, but had such a low number of attempts, it really messes with the numbers. That was 14th in the NFL for QBs with 2K passing yards or more. Middle of the pack. So if he gets middle of the pack attempts, he magically jumps over 3800 yds easily. I still feel like he will end up around 3500 passing yards with 800 rushing yards but I really think we are underestimating how bad the WR Corps was last year. Moore is going to give Fields 2-3 easy completions per game (which will add up to +500 yds right off the top from last year). Claypool as a WR3, Tonyan as a TE2. This is a sneaky good Receiving Corps with options out of the backfield (Homer especially).

Here are the best seasons for the top 4 receiving options for Fields: 87-1175, 4 81-1055, 4 62-873, 9 50-544, 7 That is 280-3647 yds, 24 TDs combined for just Moore, Mooney, Claypool, and Kmet. Take 10% off that for shared targets and you still have 252-3283, 21 TDs to just the top 4 players. No RBs, no WR4-5, and no TE2-3. Last year, with the worst passing offense in the league, Monty had 34-316, 1 TD, ESB/Pringle/Pettis/Jones combined for 57-810, 7 TD 91-1126, 8 TD and Herbert as RB2 had 9-57, and 1 TD, so the remainder of the receivers totaled 100-1183, 9 TD, if you take 10% off for shared targets, that is 90-1065, 8 TD. So in theory, if the top 4 receivers play near their potential and the rest of the receivers do what they did last year, that would be near 342-4348 yds, and 29 TDs. So no koolaid here, take 10% off those numbers for overlapping shared targets and a potential for less attempts: 308-3913, 26 TDs. Thoughts on those numbers over 17 games (230 yds per game, 1.5 TDs a game)?

OK, we need 5 GMs, for the following settings change: 1. Add a 3rd IR slot to each roster (due to increased length of season to 17 games and 18 weeks). Right now we have 3 votes (Mongo, Stinger, and myself), so we need 2 more.

Jacksonville went 3-14 to 9-8. That also included a coaching and scheme change. Comparing the teams, Fields vs Lawrence is a wash, Etienne/Robinson vs Herbert/Foreman is also probably a wash. WRs? Kirk/Jones/Jones vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool, edge Bears. TEs? Engram/Arnold vs Kmet/Tonyan, edge Bears. For O-Line, edge Jags until we see what the Bears unit can do. So it is not out of the realm of possible for the Bears to get 8 or 9 wins and be in the playoff hunt. The division is a lot weaker than it has been in a long time.

Current Keepers: Fields of Dreams - Amari Cooper - 9th, Treylon Burks - 11th SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! - Amon-Ra St. Brown - 5th, Drake London - 8th Victorious Secret - Tony Pollard - 5th MotM - Kenneth Walker - 13th

Walker is good to go for a 13th (was drafted in the 14th), however, Brian Robinson ended the season on MadLith's team. For the rule changes, we are currently at 17 roster spots and 2 IR spots, so we will definitely have to vote on those changes. With the league going to 17 games and 18 weeks, 17 players was sort of the sweet spot to help with bye weeks and injuries (non-IR).

If I switch things around, look for QBs with at least 4K yards, 24 TDs, less than 25 INTs, over 59% Comp rate, Fields ends up in a group of 24 QBs at #23 for QB Rating and dead last in yards and TDs. Trubisky was 15th for QB Rating, 19th in yards, 20th in TDs. So we have seen some pretty poor young QB play for quite some time.

Lol but in his Seattle days. I sorted by Rating, but did not include it in the filter. The only other stat was sacks over 50. So basically Fields is the best of this group when it comes to rating, Comp%, and top 3 in TDs.

14 first rounders and 6 #1 overall picks. Fields was actually the 4th latest draft slot of this group.

I was looking at some stats to see if there were other cases of QBs with similar stats to Fields after their second years, and surprisingly, there were actually quite a few and some that ended up very successful. Here is a screenshot of the output. 16 QBs qualified, since 1980, in their first two seasons, totaled less than 30 TDs, more than 20 INTs, Comp % under 60, and yards less than 5000.

I just hope Fields works out. His play will be the difference between 10 wins and 5 wins. If he plays like he did in college and carries the team with his arm and legs, this team can win 10. If he struggles to read defenses and complete short passes, this team will be lucky to win 5 or 6. Very few QBs have turned into any special with 25 starts under their belts with 24 TDs and 21 INTs averaging 150 passing yds per game. Lamar Jackson already had his MVP season by start 22. Josh Allen is close, but even he had more TDs, yards and less INTs at that point. Jalen Hurts is also close, but I don't think the Bears have the same number of vets the Eagles had in 2022. So from a pure "stats" perspective, Fields is no different than other failed 1st round pick QBs at this point. The good thing is the Bears have a safety net. If Fields doesn't play well, the stats didn't lie, and the Bears will have 2 top 10 draft picks to move up and get one of the no-brainer QB picks in 2024. Also, if Fields is bad, the Bears may have 2x top 5 picks, which could allow them to get a QB and another player in the top 10 next year.

Yes, we are still looking for one new GM. I just need an email to send them the transfer link and LeagueSafe link for payment.

That link also ranks CBs, Ss, etc. No other Bears make the list. The one thing to note about defensive players in individual rankings, a ton of their performance is influenced by their teammates. A ton of Philly secondary players made the list, but if they had the Bears D-Line, I don't know if any of them make the list. I know that holds for some offensive positions as well, but there is a reason why you see a lot of SF, PHI, and BUF defenders on the lists, because they had dominant D-Lines.

Darnell Wright+Nave Davis vs Sam Mustipher+Revolving Door at RT If an average NFL starter is a 75, Mustipher was a 40 and the revolving door was probably around a 45. Wright should be no worse than league average and Davis should be slightly higher, say 80. If the other 3 (Whitehair, Jones, Jenkins) stay relatively the same, just those 2 upgrades will improve the entire line to slightly better than league average (at worst). So a bottom-2 unit jumps to 13-15th in the NFL.

Sorry to hear that, back injuries suck. Quick Summary: 1. Fields to Moore is gonna be a thing, they are building some great chemistry. 2. Rookies like Stevenson (CB) and Scott (WR) have looked good, Dexter is huge. 3. Gordon is playing in the slot exclusively and not bouncing around. 4. Whitehair has been solid at Center, will be a clear upgrade over Mustipher, especially with protection calls at the line. 5. Claypool has not participated yet due to some injuries, so there are still question marks there. 6. Terrell Lewis (Edge) has really stood out without pads on. My own notes: RBs and LBs are gonna be team strengths. Tonyan may be the best TE2 the Bears have ever had (pass catching-wise). The last WR spot is going to be interesting. I still expect a few vet FA signings to round out the roster.

It seems like the bubble players are Tonges, Weatherford, and maybe Velus? Other than that, it would seem like a shock if any of the other guys didn't make the roster. If the Bears do bring in a new Edge, who drops off, Weatherford at LB, Bell to the PS? The 9 DL seem pretty locked in: (DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson, Trevis Gipson, Rasheem Green, Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Sr., Zacch Pickens, Travis Bell). 4 Edge, 5 DT.

Hmm, works for me, even if I logged out. Try this one: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/2022/f1/77716/draftresults?pspid=782200956&activity=draftresults If you can get to the final rosters link, you should see the "draft results" tab at the top next to "players".

keeping fingers crossed that he will avoid any major injuries, especially with his back/neck.

I started the league a little earlier as I will traveling for the next few weeks and didn't want to wait until then to get this up and running. https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/81323?pspid=782200906&activity=league 9 out of 10 teams confirmed for this year before the end of last season, with one team in need of a new GM (drafting 4th). I will need to re-confirm with those 9 and bring on one new GM. So if anyone is interested in joining our Keeper league, just let me know. Current League Fields of Dreams (Adam) MotM (Steve) Nips&Tips (JTCStone) Nopper (Bill) PapaBear (Kam) SAVAGEw/LOOSEMORALS! (Brad) The Bunny (Ary) The Mad Lithuanians (Andrew) Victorious Secret (Duane) 10th Team (new GM needed) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Buy-In and Payouts $75 buy-in with payouts: $440 / $200 / $75 / $35 (LeagueSafe will open up after all GMs are confirmed) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rule changes for 2023 Two new rule changes are up for vote. Right now these 2 rules have 3 votes to none, so with 2 more votes, we can lock these in for 2023: 1. Consolation Round plays for draft order - The winner of the Consolation Round will draft 1st, and the team that loses twice will draft 4th. This is for teams that finish the regular season 7th-10th. 2. Defense scoring - Pts Allowed 28-34 - change to (-3) to be consistent with the other scoring. Right now there is no change in defense scoring from 21 pts to 35 pts. It is currently set at (-0). This is a very small change and is just to make the scoring more even. Current League Settings: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/81323/settings ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Keepers 2022 Draft to determine keepers, each team can keep up to 2 players, they can't be a keeper from last year, they had to be drafted by you and on your final roster. The first keeper costs one round higher (5th round pick = 4th round), and the second keeper costs two rounds higher. 2022 draft results: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/2022/f1/77716/draftresults?pspid=782200940&activity=draftresults End of year roster: https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/2022/f1/77716/starters

I was thinking, which players on the Bears have the best chance at a Pro Bowl, based on last year's performance, and a little projection? On defense, I was thinking Edmunds and Brisker. On offense, Moore and Jenkins or Davis seem like they have the best chance. Fields might have a shot. The best QBs in the NFC from last year were Hurts, Cousins, Goff, Smith, and Jones. What do you think? Do the Bears have anyone you think has a good shot at a Pro Bowl selection this year?

Yep, that it why I stumbled onto reviewing them. Our bar is so low right now for passing. Fields minimum goal should be 3500 yards and 25 passing TDs. 9 players had over 4100 passing yards last year, but then there was a huge gap and the next best (#10 - Hurts) had only 3701. #15 was Daniel Jones, who only had 3205. So being league average is probably around 3200-3500 yards.

I don't know lol, but I haven't seen this mentioned yet.

I just realized that this is not the Bears first DJ Moore. They had a CB named DJ Moore that was drafted in 2009 and played 4 seasons with the Bears before going to Carolina for a year before he was out of the NFL. He had 4 INTs in his 2nd and 3rd seasons with the Bears and has 10 on his career. I totally forgot about him. Now a decade later we get him back reincarnated as a WR (who happens to be 10 years younger).

Here are the Bears single season records on offense. Passing 370 Completions - Cutler 2014 561 Attempts - Cutler 2014 3838 Yards - Kramer 1995 29 TD - Kramer 1995 Rushing 381 Attempts - Payton 1984 1852 Yards - Payton 1977 14 TD - Sayers 1965, Payton 1977, Payton 1979 Receiving 118 Receptions - Marshall 2012 1508 Yards - Marshall 2012 13 TD - Kavanaugh 1947, Gordon 1970 It feels like with the RBBC, the rushing records won't be touched for quite some time. All the passing ones seem to be in play every year and for receiving, Moore has a shot at 118 receptions, but it would be a long shot. Thoughts?

Goff has 3x seasons with over 4400 yds passing, and 4 of his seasons would be Bears franchise records. I trust him more than Cousins, but that isn't saying much. Goff is probably a top 15 QB, so I don't think it is a stretch for them to win 1 more game than last year.