adam

Stroud looks a lot like Fields did at Ohio State. In some ways it looks like Fields regressed since then. The one alarming fact for me is what Fields college WRs did this year in the NFL with crap QB play: Olave 72-1042, 4 TD (15 games) Wilson 83-1103, 4 YD If those WRs did that as rookies with terrible QB play, it would seem like they were making Fields look better than Fields was making them look. That is somewhat concerning for me when you are projecting players (who helped who). If you use QBR and EPA, Stoud and Young are almost identical. Then it comes down to the pieces around them and the opponents. Stroud almost beat UGA and AL conveniently didn't play them. However, Stroud played a much easier schedule overall. Stroud 87.7 QBR, 66.1 EPA Young 83.7 QBR, 65.8 EPA Fields 91.7 QBR, 52.8 EPA Lawrence 84.0 QBR, 55.8 EPA Will Levis scares me, QBR of 60.4 and EPA of 30.2. However, just looking at QB stats, how the hell did Josh Allen get drafted 7th overall after playing for Wyoming, having only 1x 300 yard game (against Gardner-Webb) and threw a total of 16 TDs to 6 INTs with 1812 yards his Junior year. 56.3% comp. What did he do to get on people's radars? Senior Bowl? Combine?

I would add Kaleb McGary to that as well to anchor the RT spot. Then maybe Pocic at C? Something like Brown, Whitehair, Pocic, Jenkins, McGary with Jones, Borom the swing tackles?

Yeah, the options are through the roof. My guess is this: Poles trades down once and if HIS guy is still on the board, he drafts him there. If not, I can see him moving down like your scenario and just stocking up on picks.

yep, pretty much every tie breaker had the Bears picking after the Texans, H2H, SoS, etc. I still find it fascinating that the Colts performance against the Texans in 2 games ultimately decided the fate of the Bears draft position, and now the Bears can negotiate with the Colts for the same draft capital.

The whole point of roster building is to win a championship. I don't know how this contract makes the Ravens do that. That is not what they needed, and definitely not for $20M a year. So what are they going to do with Queen? Are they going to pay two of their LBs a total of at least $35M per year? This move only makes sense if they are going to let Queen walk and put vet min's or UDFAs next to Roquan. Funny that they show some major defensive improvements since Roquan joined the team, masking the fact that the offenses they played went from top half of the league before Roquan to bottom half the league with Roquan. So the defensive improvements were normal and would've occurred without Roquan. Also, since Roquan, the Ravens were 5-4, without him 5-3. Obviously other players contribute to those records, but a ton of media posts have made it seem like Roquan was carrying them, yet he had more sacks 2.5 vs 2 and more INTs 2 vs 1 with the Bears than the Ravens (impact plays). Finally, he still has zero forced fumbles, which has always been a flaw in his game. To me, off ball LBs have become like RBs on offense. A lot of wear and tear, don't put a lot of money in them, fairly interchangeable, and very few are worth the money in big contracts. Draft late or find UDFAs.

The more I research, the more I think the Bears will trade the #1 pick to a team to get a top WR. There is just no other path to get one. Here are the teams with top 20 receivers and top 20 picks in the first round: Pittman - IND (#4) - (#4+Pittman+2024 1st or multiple 2nds/3rds) Metcalf - SEA (#5 + #20) - (#5+#20+Metcalf+4th/5th in 2023 or 2024) Adams - LVR (#7) - (#7 + Adams + 2024 1st + 3rd) Moore - CAR (#9) - (#9 + Moore + 2024 1st + 2nd) McLaurin - WAS (#16) - (#16 + McLaurin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd) Evans/Godwin - TB (#19) - (#19 + Evans or Godwin + 2024 1st + 2nd + 2024 2nd + 3rd + 2024 3rd) If Pittman was seen as a mid-first rounder (#20) in value, the Bears would still be owed at least another 1st rounder, or multiple 2nd's or 3rd's, depending on how they valued Pittman. The Seattle one is a pipe dream, but to get #5, #20 in this year's draft plus Metcalf and one later pick would be sweet. WR1 + Anderson/Carter/Skoronski/Bresee + Johnson/Addison/Smith-Njigba/Jones would be incredible.

Very true on Pierce. I still wouldn't mind Pittman as it gives Poles some flexibility.

Pretty cool WR ranking system by 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/ You can do single year or multi year. All positions btw.

They just drafted Pierce (and probably was someone Poles could've drafted instead of Gordon), so I doubt they would move on from him so soon. However, Pittman (25) seems like a perfect candidate. He is on the last year of his rookie deal and average 95 receptions and 1000 yds per season over the last 2 years. That has been with some of the crappiest QB play as well. I would feel pretty good with Pittman, Claypool, Mooney, Rookie, Jones, and ESB.

The way I am reading it is any percentage over 100, the team that traded the picks to move up, gave up more than the pick they traded for. In this scenario, using the JJ table, the Rams gave up 17% more than even to trade up. In the RH table, it was 101%, so basically an even trade. So if that is the case, that trade should be the baseline for any Poles move. Get at least that much, if not more.

Yes, give me the Rich Hill chart all day long. The JJ chart was just a very simple even math comparison. The Rich Hill one is much more current and actually treats the Goff trade as even.

Here is an awesome list of the 1st round trades involving QBs since 2002. Crazy that Washington used so much to get RG3 and still drafted Cousins later in the draft. The #1 pick was involved only once, in the Goff trade. I assume that is the blueprint for Poles. It was a nice haul (#15, 43, 45, 76, next year 1st round pick, next year 3rd round pick). The 1st rounder was a bigger drop than I would want, but if it netted 2 additional 2nds, an additional 3rd AND a 1st and 3rd in 2024, I would not be too upset. Using the trade value chart (assuming the following year picks are 16th in the round): 2180 in current year value + 1200 in future year value vs #1 = 3000. So 3380 pts gained for 3000+88/3088 lost. Almost +300 which is the equivalent to a late 2nd rounder in premium. If you also account for the move from 2 to 1, Poles could have gained the equivalent draft capital of approximately 700pts (a late 1st rounder) as long as he can get a similar trade as the Titans did.

Our road is a little harder with DET improving. The crazy thought is GB might be the worst team in the division next year with or without Rodgers. Either he stays and plays like crap and they lose, or they are crippled with the dead cap if he retires forcing them to eat up to $40M in dead cap. They are already over with Rodgers at $31M, so they would have to cut another $15M off the roster just to sign their rookies.

I am seeing a lot of chatter about Indy. Some scenarios have Quenton Nelson being offered up as part of the package. That would be crazy to end up with Nelson and Anderson/Carter in the same offseason after signing Payne.

So don't pay an off ball LB $20M a year for the next 5 years?

5yr-$100M deal, $60 in guarantees. The Ravens had $52M, that is now almost cut in half for just Roquan and does not include Lamar Jackson..... Roquan becomes their 2nd highest paid player behind Ronnie Stanley.

I am not in that camp, if you read any of my posts, I was highlighting how good Kmet has been doing, not only as an active young TE, but also on the team with the worst passing offense in the league. If his production was in an average passing offense, he would have over 70 receptions, 750 yards, and 10 TDs, which would be a top 5 TE.

Not crazy volume, but Velus has been productive when given the chance of late. These are his stats from the BUF and MIN games: Rushing 1-42-1 Receiving 3-80-0 KR 8-195, 24.4 Avg 4 touches on offense, 122 yards, 1 TD, with 3 of those touches explosive plays. 8 KRs, almost 200 yds. Over 300 all-purpose yards in 2 games.

That would be the ultimate move, from 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, IND could also stay at #4 if they think ARZ is going to pass on a QB. Outside of DET, not many teams outside the top 5 will have the ammo to move to 1 or 2.

For the Claypool trade, here are a few receivers that may be available when the Bears would've picked in the 2nd: Claypool vs WRs projected between 30-45: Chase Claypool 66-1037, 13 TD; 6'4", 238 Jalin Hyatt, TEN, 67-1267, 15 TD; 6'0", 185 Kayshon Boutte, LSU, 48-538, 2 TD, 6'0", 205 Rashee Rice, SMU, 96-1355, 10 TD, 6'2", 203 Rice is the closest in height, but no one is close in weight and overall size. For production, Rice and Hyatt were both really productive this year. Hyatt is not much bigger than Mooney. Boutte disappeared in games. The question is Hyatt or Rice worth the #32 pick. If the answer is no, then the trade was actually the right move. If you believe one or both of them are worthy of #32, then it was a bad trade. To me, it is still up in the air as Claypool is a known commodity and none of these rookies are.

The Draft Network's last mock has the Bears trading with the Colts: Bears get: #4, #35, #105, 2024 1st, and 2024 2nd Colts get: #1 That would be a haul for the Bears. Assuming the Colts are still bad next year, that should be a top 10 pick and top 40 pick in 2024.

Here are a few, I like the ones with the easy to read tables. Most of these sites have mock drafts too: https://www.drafttek.com/2023-NFL-Draft-Big-Board/Top-NFL-Draft-Prospects-2023-Page-1.asp https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/big_board https://www.pff.com/draft https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2023-rankings/a31k4ake2cmnf8elanbwoag0 https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/ALL/1/2023 https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable https://thedraftnetwork.com/2023-nfl-mock-draft-non-playoff-order/

The Bears were the only team with over 3000 rushing yards (team record) and even though a lot of that was Fields, the TEs and WRs had some great blocks. I don't know if anyone besides PFF but just from the eyeball test, he was definitely in the top half of the league as a blocker.

I would love Engram. Seems like a perfect compliment to Kmet. What about someone like Pollard? Saquon's injury history would scare me.

Kliff Kingsbury and GM fired in AZ. Another potential trading partner at #3. Panthers, Colts, Texans, and potentially the Cardinals all could be in the market for a rookie QB: