Everything posted by adam
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Play Calling
Here is more on the Ben Johnson effect, 70+ Yard TD drives, DET had 46, CHI had 17, literally 1st and last. Even if the Bears just jump to the middle of the pack, that would be almost double from last year.
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Bear Related Podcasts
Great Bagent interview, you can tell this year really is "different". I know the rinse and repeat history makes most of us into the ultimate pessimists because we have lived through "this year is different" 30+ times, but these interviews really do paint a different picture: Besides the normal stuff we have heard before, I did like that Bagent specifically pointed out that DomRob has been visible. He said he just had a baby, so he thinks it is dad strength or something because no one wants to block him.
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Practices
It looks like the Bears dodged a huge bullet and picked the correct Shemar. Stewart is already turning out to be a wasted pick for Cincy and it's only early June.
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
Over the last 2 seasons (his only starting ones) he comps strongly between Geno Smith and Tua. Basically, if Geno and Tua had a baby, it would be Jordan Love.
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The "New" Kickoff Rule - One Year After
I don't mind the new kickoff format, I just don't like being penalized for a touchback. I could see if you kick it out of the end zone, then sure, penalize the kicking team for preventing a kick return, but giving the receiving the team 35 yards for catching the ball in the end zone seems crazy to me. The 30 already felt far to me, the 35 is going to be wild.
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
against the NFC North/Central: Love 8-10 Rodgers 59-25-1 Favre 82-44 I just love how Packers fan put Love on some pedestal like he is anywhere close to Favre or Rodgers. Love is a .500 QB (literally 21-21) and has a losing record against the North. He is also 8-14 on the road but somehow a top franchise QB. That does not compute.
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The "New" Kickoff Rule - One Year After
They did make a change to the touchbacks for 2025 though, they will now be placed at the 35 (previously the 30, and originally the 20). To me, the 35 seems a little excessive. Here are some notes from a recent article: The average field position after all kickoffs in 2024 was the 30-yard line. After a return, the average starting position was the 29-yard line. Seven touchdowns were scored off a kickoff return last year, the most since 2021. There were 59 "big play" returns, which the NFL defines as 40-plus yards, the most since 2016.
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
Burden would've been matched up against CB3, now CB4. Across the board, teams are going to be able to throw against GB like they did when Alexander was out. 6-1 with Alexander (only loss to PHI) 5-5 without Alexander It looks like GB is going to be more like an 8 to 9 win team this year at best.
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
GB just released Alexander. He was their CB1, even if he missed some time with injuries, that is a huge hole to fill post June 1.
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Practices
The biggest unknown was Nagy was never a play caller, or when he was, didn't do it very well. That was always the knock on him coming from KC. So if you have an offensive coach who isn't a great playcaller, what do you really have? Nagy had to figure out how to be a Play Caller while trying to figure out how to be a HC at the same time and it eventually got exposed. Fangio's defense masked it for a year, but then, like you said Stinger, Pace's draft picks and roster construction finally came back to bite him.
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QB Roster Question
Yes, those are passing numbers. For rushing: Daniels had 37 RZ Rushes and 6 TDs Nix had 17 and 3 TDs So both Nix had 25 total TDs and 1 INT Williams had 10 and 0 TDs (this really hurt Caleb's advanced stats) Maye had 5 rushes and 2 TDs From the 20-49: Williams had 7 TD - 3 INT Maye 6 - 1 Nix had 5 - 5 Daniels 4 - 3 Surprised to see that Maye was the best in that part of the field.
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QB Roster Question
I think it is wild that Williams took the fewest sacks in the RZ, and had the fewest INTs (that is less surprising). Nix and Daniels both benefitted from a high powered offense so their TDs numbers were gonna be higher.
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QB Roster Question
Bo Nix had a 22 TD - 1 INT ratio, 109.4 QB Rating in the RZ with 3 sacks. Daniels had a 19 TD - 1 INT with a 104.8 QB Rating with 4 sacks. Williams was 13-0, with a 96.8 QB Rating with 2 sacks. Maye was 9-2, with a 76.5 QB Rating with 6 sacks. No other rookie QBs qualified.
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Cole Kmet
I agree. It is more of a novelty and should not be used as your sole source.
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Bear Related Podcasts
I know it is statistically not realistic, but people are calling for huge years for Burden and Odunze. Moore and Kmet are fairly consistent, and that doesn't even include Loveland. I really think this offense is poised to crush franchise records.
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Cole Kmet
There are some good parts to PFF, but you have to dig. The grades from a macro view are ok, but still subjective. However, they do have some advanced analytics numbers that are based on real stats (comparable to NFL Next Gen Stats).
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
Good info, I didn't even pay attention to his deal.
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QB Roster Question
Daniels ranking is solely due to his scrambling. Technically Nix had the best passing season of the top 3 rookies last season. I don't know how you can have Williams after Bryce Young, McCarthy (ultimately a rookie), Maye, and Penix. That is just silly.
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Schedule release (building it as it comes out)
Frank Ragnow, Lions Center, unexpectedly retired. Huge blow to their O-Line. They had already lost Zeitler, so 40% of their O-Line is gone. I don't know why he waited until after free agency and the draft (maybe he tried to give it a go), but either way, you don't just replace an All-Pro Center with anyone. This feels like a huge offensive regression coming from Detroit this year. Goff with pressure up the gut is the worst for him because he is not very mobile.
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Cole Kmet
PFF has Andrews at #4 AND Likely at #9. That is crazy talk.
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Cole Kmet
The media in general hates Kmet. Even with Loveland, Kmet is still a top 20 TE.
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QB Roster Question
Bagent signed a 3-year UDFA deal, so technically, he is not on a typical 4 or 5-year rookie deal. This is the last year of that deal.
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QB Roster Question
The only way a PS guy gets poached is if he is signed to another team's 53-man roster, so that process would only be indirectly impacted by keeping Keenum on the 53-man. So if Keenum was on the roster last year, he would've replaced Blasingame or Velus based on usage. Blasingame = 10 snaps + 25 ST snaps Jones Jr. = 4 snaps + 12 ST snaps If he makes it this year, he would either replace RB5 or WR6 Right now that is Scott or Toure as WR6 or the loser of Monangai or Wheeler as RB5. If Monangai loses out, he is a PS Candidate anyway. It doesn't seem like Keenum would negatively impact the game day rosters. I am sure injuries will drive this decision. He is a nice luxury until a key starter goes down and they need the depth at a different position.
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QB Roster Question
It could happen, but with the emergency QB thing, it wouldn't impact the game day roster as all. As for the 53-man, the bottom 3-5 guys come up and down from the PS anyway, so having one fewer guy do that to have a 3rd QB (if he is that important) seems like a no brainer.
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Caleb addresses the Media
This was such an odd topic because most fans could care less about the story, but the media kept telling each other that it was a big story. So odd. If anyone was in Caleb's shoes and not a previous Bears fan in late 2023, I would not expect anything different. KOC made Darnold look like the 2nd coming of Dan Marino, they play in a dome, have a great defense, and a decent WR in Justin Jefferson. Why would you not want to go there? Or you can go to the Bears where they were quick to cast off Trubisky and Fields, and had Matt Eberflus as the HC, and a revolving door at OC and DC. Depending on when the comments were given, the Bears started 2-7 and 3-8 in 2023 and if not for a late season surge, would've had a top 5 pick themselves. I am just glad this has been put to bed.