adam

OK, the combine is over, and some pro days have occurred. Who are you picking, and why, as the next QB for the Chicago Bears?

The Bears definitely need to start adding some starters on rookie deals. Right now they only have 7 out of 22. If they add two in the year, it will go up to 9. Then next year, if they add 3 and extend Jenkins, then it will be a net of +2 to 11. Then in 2026, they will need to add 3 just to break even. Offensive starters on rookie deals: Jones (UFA in 2026), Jenkins (UFA in 2025), and Wright. Defensive starters on rookie deals: Dexter, Brisker (UFA in 2026), Stevenson, and Gordon (UFA in 2026).

It was weighted AV, that's why Smith wasn't listed. Sanborn was not included as he was not a draft pick as this topic was specifically talking about 2025 draft picks.

I don't think Daniels fits Waldron's system. Daniels rushed once for every 2 passing attempts, that is a lot of rushes for a college QB. Also, he didn't play particularly well against top opponents, his last two games against Alabama he averaged 200 yards passing. His last game against Georgia, 208 yards passing. He was 1-2 in those games against top defenses. In 2023, he faced 2 top 10 teams, Alabama and Florida St, and he lost both. In 2022, he was 2-2 against ranked teams.

Fields is no different than Trubisky at this point, I wish him well and hope he turns into something. I will root for him wherever he goes. However, he is no longer a Bear, just like Mooney. So I am moving on, no need to waste my time or energy on a former player.

So I have been doing a little digging interestingly enough. From the 2022 draft, based on AV, there are 85 players that have contributed at a starter or above level (262 total drafted/32%). The Bears have 3 starter quality players from that draft, Braxton Jones, Jaquan Brisker, and Kyler Gordon (just squeaked in at the bottom). There were 8 other players drafted by the Bears in 2022 (11 in total/27%), including Velus Jones in the 3rd, and none of them made the list. Braxton was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to hit. In the 2023 draft, there were 57 players to make the list as starter level contributors (out of 259 total players/22%). The Bears selected 10 players in this draft. 3 of them made the list (30%). Darnell Wright, Tyrique Stevenson, and Roschon Johnson. Of those 3, Roschon was the only pick beyond the 2nd round to make the list. So Poles has hit on 4 out of 5 1st/2nd round picks. His only miss right now is Dexter. From the 3rd to 7th though, he has hit on 2/15 (Braxton and Roschon). In the last two drafts, there have been 521 total draftees, and 142 players made the list (27.3%). The Bears had 6 players make the list out of 21 drafted (28.6%). So Poles is drafting 1.3% better than the NFL average. He is above average in the 1st two rounds and below average from 3rd to the 7th. I think that is why he is not opposed to trading picks from later rounds. I actually expect Poles to use future draft capital later in the draft to move up in this year's draft.

Looking at some teams QB rooms, I have no clue why IND did not take a flyer on Fields. They have no clue what Richardson will become, and they signed Joe Flacco as his backup? Talk about two completely opposite QBs. Flacco is a statue. So odd. How about Denver? Stidham and Dinucci? Really? Washington could've had Fields for peanuts but instead chose Mariota who is QB1 right now. Tennessee has Levis, Willis, and signed Rudolph. Fields would've been a decent fit there in between Levis and Willis.

If Davis is even average, this is a 10+ win team. Then the next worst is probably whoever is Center unless it is JPJ.

Wilson is as new as Fields in Pittsburgh, so I think Fields sees a path to starting there. RW only has a one year deal too, and is 35. It will be interesting to see if PIT picks up his 5th year option. I don't think they will, which will be telling. Also, PIT is setting themselves up for some issues in a few years either way. Next year, they are going to have to pay a QB one way or another. They would have to cut/no re-sign Cam Heyward and Fitzpatrick to absorb a normal QB contract, probably more. It would be tough to pass up Hurts who has years of experience in the offense. I wouldn't be surprised if DET and MIN were at least inquiring about Fields. Fields did shred Detroit a few times. MIN, not so much. I was surprised PIT moved on from Johnson at WR. They now only have Pickens, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin. Pickens is going to get a lot of attention, something he didn't have to worry about as much with Johnson on the field across from him.

My thought was Williams has never thrown to anyone as high caliber as Moore or Allen. The one thing for me that stands out for Williams over every other QB is how he keeps his head up and eyes downfield, to the point where it looks like his helmet is on a gimbal and his body is moving below a static helmet. My order right now would be, just based on multi-year production would be Williams, Nix, then Penix/Daniels as 3a/3b, sort of interchangeable based on your offense, then Maye/McCarthy as 4a/4b. Just based on potential and projections, I would say Williams ceiling is the highest (top 5) and floor is probably a top 20 QB (not as a rookie). Penix ceiling is probably top 10 with a similar floor as Williams. Daniels has a top 10 ceiling and a top 25 floor (feels like Kyler Murray production), then Maye/McCarthy are very team dependent. I think they max out as top 15 QBs and floor are career backups after a short time starting (Howell, Pickett, Trubisky, Fields). I would not be surprised if 3 to 4 end up being long time starters.

I think Courtney Cronin said Philly and Detroit were two of them.

No way, Washington would not pass on Williams. That would be like two super unlikely things occurring, like a tsunami hitting a volcano erupting.

Daniels scares me a little because he did that throwing to Nabers and Thomas, two likely first rounders. Daniels also did that as a 5th Year Senior, not a Junior. Look at what he did his Junior Year and Senior Year, and you would have a completely different perspective about him. He basically stayed in school to pad his numbers on a stacked team, and it worked. He would not have been a highly selected draft pick last year even though he was eligible. Also, there was a QB a few years ago who was also throwing to multiple 1st Round WRs in college, and that QB didn't work out.

I mean, really, if they add an Edge, DT, WR3, and Center before the season starts. Who is the weakest starting player? Nate Davis? They have Ryan Bates is waiting in the wings. I honestly can't think of another player that would be considered a liability who is starting. Also, the Bears still have 3 picks in the first two rounds in 2025 (thanks Panthers). So any liability identified this year will have instant backfill in 2025.

A trade down from #1 would be a shocker, but I don't think it is off the table.

If you can pull of JPJ, Corley, AND Leggette, that would be insane. A 5-WR set iwith Moore, Allen, Corley, Legette, and Scott/Everett/Kmet would be pretty silly.

Using PFF+Snap count, plugging in the loss of Fields and adding Williams with a generic score for now. The team is 2x high end starters better or the equivalent of taking 4 average players and making them really good. With 22 starters, that is close to 20%. Once you plug in the new first rounder, that will be a 5th slot. Just using projections, the Bears improved at RB, TE, C, WR on offense and at S on defense so far this offseason. The weakness is still Edge with a need for a rotational DT and veteran WR3. They can definitely address 2 of those in the draft.

With the addition of Byard (and subtraction of Jackson), the Bears are rolling out: Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Byard as the starting secondary with Terrell Smith, Greg Stroman, and Jonathan Owens as the first rotational players. Terrell Smith was the 2nd highest graded DB last year (behind JJ), and Owens had more snaps last year than any DB on the team. Can you name a better group, considering the depth as well? I can't. Also, this offseason was about clearing out the bottom of the roster. Blackwell, Ngakoue, Jackson, Jones, and Green were all in the bottom 10 players on the defense. There were a ton of bad snaps in that group that are now gone. Hicks was also in there and is now one position lower on the depth chart with Owens. Funny that there was a similar trend on offense with the loss of Mooney, Patrick, Whitehair, and Tonyan. Another set of bad snaps gone.

The Bears are still weak at WR3, Edge2, and need at least another rotational piece at DT with the loss of Jones. For upgrades, Center is the most obvious spot not listed. So priority seems to be WR/Edge, then DT, then Center. If they stand pat, they have #9, #75, and #122 to address those spots. They have talked about a big drop off in talent in this draft (due to players staying in school due to NIL), so there are fewer mid level players available. I assume that is why Poles has not been shy to dump draft picks later in the draft. What would you rather see the Bears do (not what you think they will do) with the draft picks? Do you think it is better to get a no-brainer blue chipper at #9 OR trade back to #17 and pick up something around #48 (using JAX as an example). Would #17 and #48 be better than #9? I think if Nabers, Odunze, Alt, or the top Edge is there at #9, I think you have to take them. If that group is gone, you definitely move back. I think Alt is the wild card. How do the Bears really feel about Braxton Jones? Also, if you do move back to #17, and JPJ is there at Center, is he the pick? Would you pick him over Edge? Then try to address Edge at #48 or #75?

I have to find it, but someone had a breakdown of the current Bears receivers (including Swift) against man and zone. Basically there is a cheat code no matter what coverage, someone will be open on every play. Also, Waldron last year: Lockett - 122 targets, Metcalf - 119 = Moore and Allen are gonna cook.

Like with Mitch, it's a good time to turn the page. It is a new chapter in Chicago Bears football. I appreciate everything Justin did for the team and city, it was bad timing, and didn't work out. I wish him the best in Pittsburgh, and hope he plays well when given the opportunity (preferably over 51% of the snaps in 2024).

Interesting comments from McCaskey about Fields this morning: "Did he win enough, no" "Was he consistent enough, no" "Did he make passes over the MoF enough, no" "Did he stay in the pocket with eye downfield enough, no" "but he got everything else right"

At this point it has to be a trade back from #9 to get at least a 2nd or 3rd rounder back, then make sure you get an Edge and WR in 2 of the top 3 picks.

I know man, but there have been enough of those so far to think it is actually possible. I assume they wanted this done before the USC Pro Day, and that date was fast approaching.

I don't know how it won't be the Bears this offseason. What do you think?