Chance at the playoffs

[jason]

Am I reading this right in that they think the Bears only have an 11% chance at the playoffs?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1957040...rtant-2017-game

 

And if they lose the game identified, it's down to 3%?

[Lucky Luciano]

Am I reading this right in that they think the Bears only have an 11% chance at the playoffs?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1957040...rtant-2017-game

 

And if they lose the game identified, it's down to 3%?

 

more espn garbage.

 

in my opinion the bears are 50/50 to make the playoffs at least as a wild card. i don't think they have the strength to take the division yet but give them another year...

[AZ54]

No clue. I see something called "playoff leverage" and have zero clue what it means nor do they define it and how it's calculated. I think the playoff leverage is some half-assed value assigned to a single game that, for purposes of writing something in the middle of the summer, they want us to believe is critical to these teams making the playoffs.

 

 

[Stinger226]

Am I reading this right in that they think the Bears only have an 11% chance at the playoffs?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1957040...rtant-2017-game

 

And if they lose the game identified, it's down to 3%?

Then if you were a betting man, you may be able to make some money this year. Our worst case will be 8-8, I think we surprise the shit out of everybody this year.

[Stinger226]

Then if you were a betting man, you may be able to make some money this year. Our worst case will be 8-8, I think we surprise the shit out of everybody this year.

Every year there is a surprise team that makes the playoffs. One you have no clue will overcome the unknown and surprise everyone.

 

Last year, Oakland went from 7-9 to 12-4. They were in a division with Denver, KC and no one had a clue they would clear all hurdles and make it.

They season was washed away when Carr went down.

 

The year before you could argue, the Panthers went from 7-8-1 to 15-1, the Vikings went from 7-9 to 11-5.

Both teams had many unknowns but the things went the right way that propelled them in the playoffs, when not expected.

 

My contention is this is our year to have all the unknowns prove positive and push us to a winning record.

 

Everybody was excited after the first year, when Foxy, traditionally goes from poor to good in his second year. I think injuries limited us from that season happening.

We had a large roster turn over in one year, our roster was arguably one of the worst in the league, but needed to get younger. We maybe had 5 players from the Emery years that turned out positive. Most teams, those 3-4-5 year players are the core of our team , in our case, it was a disaster.I think we should have been that team that went 7-9 8-8 to hope for the next year, it didnt happen.

 

The positives:

 

Our defense is ready to explode. McPhee is finally to a point to be on the field for the whole year.

Floyd had enough good things happen to expect double digit sacks this year.

Goldman along with Hicks will contribute the upfront pressure that is expected of the DL.

You add Howard, ( with something to prove) and Bullard that upside should show its face this year.

Better depth with RRH and Jenkins, and our front line should explode with consistent play.

With a healthy McPhee, Floyd, Young and the added health of Houston, and I think we lead the league is sacks this year.

The back of the defense was a mess, Pace did not grab the cream of free agency but added 3 new starters.With the drafting of Jackson, possibly 4.

Demps will be a leader in the back of the defense, will lead the team with interceptions.

We have many young players with a chance to step up, and think with the added pressure from up front will surprise.

 

When Pace went mainly offense in the draft, it got everybody in an uproar, but I think he knows, he has the defense side of the ball, stable enough to do that.

To complete a rebuild you have to have a QB in place to at least give you the hope of better times. Pace takes heat for the way he did it, but he rolled the dice twice on the premise, it works out.

I think he did the right thing when the rest of the NFL laughs at him. Time will tell if he was right, but he has two shots at the board to score a bulleye, and I think he nailed it.

With the surprising success of Howard, we now have something to build around, so adding 2 TEs with upside, a Tyeek Hill type of player, and a bunch of WRs to take up the slake of Jeffery being gone. We need to remember the great Jeffery had two mediocre seasons, it will not take much to replace him. I think this year, Meridith becomes a star, and White finally shows why he was drafted so high.

What makes me optimistic on White, is his injuries were not knee injuries but a couple of broken bones, they will not slow him down, it just hasnt happened yet.

I think the addition of Cruz and Wheaton, plus the undrafted suprise in Tanner, that our WR corp is in good hands, it just doesnt have history.

I think the one key to the offense is the OLine , we arguably have 3 pro bowlers up front. I think Massie is adequate, and Leno in his contract year will prove to be better. He will never be a top 10 LT but if he takes the leap to average, I can live with that. Pace hedged his bet with bringing in Sims to not only be a target on the verge of a breakout, help with the blocking on the edge. I think with moving Long to LG, we put a better athlete to help that side of the ball to. Put seem to forget, Long started his career on the left side of the ball. I think everything is put in place for our weaknesses to not be major problems in protecting our new QBs.

 

I think we have a sleeping giant ready to take a leap forward. I know with all the unknowns, it is hard to imagine a winning record but I think we have the players to take that next step.

Of course another year of heavy injuries will derail that prospect, but until it happens, I am taking the positive side of its going to happen this year.

 

For all the naysayers, its going to happen this year, I may look stupid now, but at the end of the season, you may remember my predictions or not, but as long as we are winning, who cares.

[adam]

Am I reading this right in that they think the Bears only have an 11% chance at the playoffs?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1957040...rtant-2017-game

 

And if they lose the game identified, it's down to 3%?

This makes absolutely no sense. They are projecting a projection? To me, every win would have almost equal value, because if we didn't have 8-9 wins going into Week 17, the Minnesota game would mean nothing.

 

Just look at their first comment or game; so DAL vs NYG in Week 1 is going to shift playoff chances for both teams by 24-25%? So more than half of the Giants season's playoff chances comes down to Week 1? Come on, this is beyond ridiculous.

 

So I can see weighting the games based on Division, Conference, and home and away with each situation weighted slightly different, but this is silly.

 

Now to answer your question, yes 11%, I think it is more like 25%, but at this point I can understand the low assessment.

 

[BearFan2000]

Am I reading this right in that they think the Bears only have an 11% chance at the playoffs?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1957040...rtant-2017-game

 

And if they lose the game identified, it's down to 3%?

 

That the Bears are projected to have a slim shot at the playoffs by the "experts" doesn't surprise me one bit and is to be expected. Respect is earned and the Bears haven't earned that in recent years. How they got there to their preciction doesn't make sense. They come up with some crazy "formula" to try to predict what they can't know because every year is different. Too many moving parts and variables. It's more about them trying to look smart. Like the expression if you can't impress them with knowledge baffle them with BS. That in a nutshell is the "experts." They look at the past few years records and what the perceive to be a wasted offseason and draft. NFL experts are about as accurate as weather forecasters. Like Stinger pointed out every year there are teams that surprise everyone. There are teams expected to be awesome and don't live up to the hype while teams expected to suck outperform expectations.

[AZ54]

Every year there is a surprise team that makes the playoffs. One you have no clue will overcome the unknown and surprise everyone.

 

Last year, Oakland went from 7-9 to 12-4. They were in a division with Denver, KC and no one had a clue they would clear all hurdles and make it.

They season was washed away when Carr went down.

 

The year before you could argue, the Panthers went from 7-8-1 to 15-1, the Vikings went from 7-9 to 11-5.

Both teams had many unknowns but the things went the right way that propelled them in the playoffs, when not expected.

 

My contention is this is our year to have all the unknowns prove positive and push us to a winning record.

 

Everybody was excited after the first year, when Foxy, traditionally goes from poor to good in his second year. I think injuries limited us from that season happening.

We had a large roster turn over in one year, our roster was arguably one of the worst in the league, but needed to get younger. We maybe had 5 players from the Emery years that turned out positive. Most teams, those 3-4-5 year players are the core of our team , in our case, it was a disaster.I think we should have been that team that went 7-9 8-8 to hope for the next year, it didnt happen.

 

The positives:

 

Our defense is ready to explode. McPhee is finally to a point to be on the field for the whole year.

Floyd had enough good things happen to expect double digit sacks this year.

Goldman along with Hicks will contribute the upfront pressure that is expected of the DL.

You add Howard, ( with something to prove) and Bullard that upside should show its face this year.

Better depth with RRH and Jenkins, and our front line should explode with consistent play.

With a healthy McPhee, Floyd, Young and the added health of Houston, and I think we lead the league is sacks this year.

The back of the defense was a mess, Pace did not grab the cream of free agency but added 3 new starters.With the drafting of Jackson, possibly 4.

Demps will be a leader in the back of the defense, will lead the team with interceptions.

We have many young players with a chance to step up, and think with the added pressure from up front will surprise.

 

When Pace went mainly offense in the draft, it got everybody in an uproar, but I think he knows, he has the defense side of the ball, stable enough to do that.

To complete a rebuild you have to have a QB in place to at least give you the hope of better times. Pace takes heat for the way he did it, but he rolled the dice twice on the premise, it works out.

I think he did the right thing when the rest of the NFL laughs at him. Time will tell if he was right, but he has two shots at the board to score a bulleye, and I think he nailed it.

With the surprising success of Howard, we now have something to build around, so adding 2 TEs with upside, a Tyeek Hill type of player, and a bunch of WRs to take up the slake of Jeffery being gone. We need to remember the great Jeffery had two mediocre seasons, it will not take much to replace him. I think this year, Meridith becomes a star, and White finally shows why he was drafted so high.

What makes me optimistic on White, is his injuries were not knee injuries but a couple of broken bones, they will not slow him down, it just hasnt happened yet.

I think the addition of Cruz and Wheaton, plus the undrafted suprise in Tanner, that our WR corp is in good hands, it just doesnt have history.

I think the one key to the offense is the OLine , we arguably have 3 pro bowlers up front. I think Massie is adequate, and Leno in his contract year will prove to be better. He will never be a top 10 LT but if he takes the leap to average, I can live with that. Pace hedged his bet with bringing in Sims to not only be a target on the verge of a breakout, help with the blocking on the edge. I think with moving Long to LG, we put a better athlete to help that side of the ball to. Put seem to forget, Long started his career on the left side of the ball. I think everything is put in place for our weaknesses to not be major problems in protecting our new QBs.

 

I think we have a sleeping giant ready to take a leap forward. I know with all the unknowns, it is hard to imagine a winning record but I think we have the players to take that next step.

Of course another year of heavy injuries will derail that prospect, but until it happens, I am taking the positive side of its going to happen this year.

 

For all the naysayers, its going to happen this year, I may look stupid now, but at the end of the season, you may remember my predictions or not, but as long as we are winning, who cares.

 

I've been thinking about this. Our defense ranked top 10 until the last 3 weeks of the season. That was despite the lack of consistency on the offensive side of the ball and the injuries.

 

CBs: Who were we trotting out there in the secondary last year? Hopefuls like Jacoby Glenn and Bausby for some games. A rookie unknown in LeBlanc who played well despite being moved all over the field. Whatever reservations I have for Marcus Cooper he's a far better option than either of Glenn/Bausby. Amukamara is also a step up from Porter. I like Callahan and LeBlanc and think both are NFL quality starters at NB. Both proved capable of filling in outside. Our 5th CB is going to be one of Fuller/Banks/Hall.

 

S: Demps makes this better but not quite where we want it to be. I still like Amos in the box but we're still in a wait and see for Deon Bush. Unlike most I'm not that high on Eddie Jackson although his physical talent fits what we want in the deep middle. Their success will depend on the front 7 but there is no doubt we have more depth here than last year.

 

Bottom line among the DBs is that we are at the point where one or two of Pace's draft picks are going to move to the practice squad or won't make the team at all. Fuller can be added to that mix as well. Overall the competition for roster spots for the DBs is much tougher going into training camp than last year when we all knew the late round draft picks would make the final 53.

 

 

OLB: I am very encouraged by McPhee's participation in the offseason. He'll never be a full-time player again but if he can handle 60% of the snaps on defensive side we're in very good shape. Willie Young is still a very good player when he's getting about 30-40% of the snaps. Then we have Houston filling in for Floyd at times. Despite the chatter about him being cut Houston is still a good OLB for us especially on run downs. If an experienced Dan Skuta is our 5th option then we have some very good depth across the board. We could certainly use another speed player off the edge in this mix but this is a solid group.

 

ILB: I like Freeman alongside Kwit to start the year with Trevathan working into the mix mid-season. I'd like to see one more quality player here because Timu is too limited in coverage.

 

Dline: If Howard is out there we will have one of the best DT groups in football and two of them (Goldman, Hicks) have the power and quickness to push the pocket.

 

If we had a star player out there people would be talking about this D. We don't have one yet.