Based on the preseason predictions, these were the most under and over achieving teams this year with 1 week left:

1. DEN 11-6 > 4-12 (-7)
2. LAR 11-6 > 5-11 (-6)
3. IND 9-8 > 4-11-1 (-4.5)
4. TB 12-5 > 8-8 (-4)
5. ARZ 8-9 > 4-12 (-4)

1. PHI 9-8 > 13-3 (+4)
2. NYG 6-11 > 9-6-1 (+3.5)
3T. JAX 5-12 > 8-8 (+3)
3T. MIN 9-8 > 12-4 (+3)
3T. ATL 3-14 > 6-10 (+3)
3T. SEA 5-12 > 8-8 (+3)

DEN and LAR are by far the farthest off their projections. IND was a lot worse than expected. PHI and NYG both surprised. Of the positive teams, only PHI and JAX had a decent point differential. NYG was +0, MIN -19, ATL -34, and SEA +3. Those are all lucky teams and probably won games they shouldn't have. However, PHI (+127) and JAX (+50) look pretty strong. 

Any teams on here that surprised you? The Bears were -3 and could make it into the top 5 next week at -4 if TB or ARZ win.

1, 2, and both 3t shocked the hell outta me.  I also thought the Raiders would be much better than they were.

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

1, 2, and both 3t shocked the hell outta me.  I also thought the Raiders would be much better than they were.

Ah, we forgot to account for the Josh McDaniels effect.  Denver, LA Rams, and TB's complete and utter ineptness shocked me the most.  TB is only 8-8 out of the kindness of others.  

Every year things are always changing. Rams won the SB and with one of the best coaches in the league, several blue chip players and look how they finished. Injuries killed them just like injuries killed us but only a couple games apart? Every year is different.