Comparing the 2022 Eagles and 2023 Bears

[adam]

I was looking over some stats and noticed a few things that got me excited. Regardless of what you may think, the Bears are closer to the 2022 Eagles than they are to the 2022 Bears this year.

Jalen Hurts was in his 3rd year and finally broke thru with a new WR1 in AJ Brown. He ended the year with the following line:

Passing: 306-460, 66.5%, 3701 yds, 22 TD, 6 INT; Rushing: 165 ATT, 760 yds, 13 TD

If you simply give Fields the same number of attempts for both passing and rushing, his numbers (from 2022 w/o Moore) would look like this:

Passing: 277-460, 60.4%, 3243 yds, 25 TD, 16 INT; Rushing: 165 ATT, 1179 yds, 9 TD

Outside of the INTs, that is a pretty solid season with over 4400 total yards and 34 total TDs. Again, this does not account the addition of Moore which should improve Fields' Comp%, Y/A, and Y/G. If we use Hurts' improvement from Year 2 to 3, and apply that to Fields new numbers (which would now include Moore), he would end up with the following:

Passing: 296-460, 64.6%, 3731 yds, 28 TD, 13 INT

So Fields would have more passing yards and TD than Hurts in 2022, but more INTs and a slightly lower Comp%. To me, these numbers feel very realistic. What do you think? Can Fields hit 3700 passing yards? 28 TDs?

 

Looking at the different units, the Eagles obviously win in the trenches, not even close when it comes to O-Line and D-Line, but every other unit seems to be some good comps.

2022 PHI - 2023 CHI

QB - Hurts vs Fields
RB - Sanders/Gainwell/Boston vs Herbert/Foreman/Johnson/Homer
WR - Brown/Smith/Watkins/Pascal vs Moore/Mooney/Claypool/Scott
TE - Goedert/Stoll vs Kmet/Tonyan

I would give the Bears the edge for groups in RB and TE, and WR is a push as the Bears are deeper, but the Eagles have the higher ceiling with Brown and Smith. For QB, I will say it is a push because going into 2022 there were the same questions about Hurts as there are about Fields now. O-Line goes to the Eagles. So if you count OL as 2, QB as 2, and all other groups as 1. The Eagles get 2 for OL, Bears get 1 for RB, and 1 for TE, with QB as a push. The teams are very close on offense with Philly having a slight edge because how good their O-Line was.

On defense, the Eagles get 2 for their D-Line. The Bears have potential there, but too many unknowns. For LBs, the Bears 2023 corps is elite and has Edwards from the 2022 Eagles, so 1 for the Bears. Then for the secondary, the Bears have the better Safeties in Brisker/Jackson vs Epps/Blankenship and the Eagles have the edge for CBs with Slay, Gardner-Johnson, and Bradberry vs Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson, but it is close, especially if Gordon is improved in the slot and Stevenson is the real deal on the outside. So that makes it a push in the secondary, the Eagles get 2 for D-Line and Bears get 1 for LB Corps. So the Eagles have the edge again, but not by much.

To me, that is very favorable to comp that close to a team that went 14-3 and went to the Super Bowl. Even if the Bears are a tier down from them due to the trenches, the entire 53-man roster is not that far off.  The Bears are projected as a 7.5 win team, but I feel like the potential is there to get to 9 or 10 fairly easily. 

[Stinger226]

The one constant for Eagles is they have a top oline. If our line jells we  can outdo the Eagles offensive stats. I agree with your assessments. I think Fields will be closer to Josh Allen's 3 rd year than jalen Hurts. Fields will be a better QB than Hurts. (Allen) 3rd year.  4544-37-10  2023 Fields...4050-32-13 IMO

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I would say the Bears are on the verge and talent wise the gap is closing.  The key will start to come down to coaching but I think the Bears will be real competitors next year or 2024 season.  They need a few more pieces to be in that seat but will show they are ready for it this year by having a winning record.

[Mongo3451]

The difference between the two is huge.  The 22 Eagles were already established and deep.  They probably had 7 defensive lineman that were better than our best and every offensive lineman was better than our best.  All they needed was Hurts to get better to make a Superbowl run.  We need Justin to get better to make it to average.

[AZ54]

I’m with Mongo in that our talent on the field is much closer to the Eagles this year but we lack experience.   That’s both from young players but also experience in the system from the vets we added.    They were adding pieces to a solid core.  The pieces we added are make up most of our solid core.  

[Stinger226]

Where the Eagles excel is great depth. Our starters will compete but our record will be determined by injuries. If it stays low, we will be in good shape.  I think the unknown with be very positive for us. Take last years additions, Patrick, B Jones, Justin Jones,  Ja'Tre Carter, Claypool, Sanborn, Robinson, Gordon, Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Chase Allen, Blackwell, Velus Jones, Michael Ojenmuda, and Elijah Hicks will all play better. A few of them will take giant steps., we just have questions until they prove themselves. 

Our RBs are better, our WRs are better. We go 2 deep at TE, it's going to be Fields and the oline that will define our wins. We had 7 one score loses by some wild plays. If we were 7-9 or 8-8 , what would the NFL experts be predicting this year? They would have us in the playoffs.

[killakrzydav]

Koolaid is strong this time of year

[Stinger226]

When I'm not watching real football, I watch highlights that create endorphins in my body. Until reality hits, I may be let down, but nothing like hope for an uplifting mood better place to be than predicting 6-11.